Opening Sword & Shield Ultra-Premium Collection: Charizard returns about $155.46 in card value against its $562.87 price — roughly $0.28 back per dollar spent. On current prices, you lose money on average by opening it.
See every card and pull rate in Lost Origin
How expected value is calculated — card value only, from published pull rates and daily market prices.
Sword & Shield Ultra-Premium Collection: Charizard on TCGplayer