A $529.41 Arceus pack returns $91.44 in expected card value on average — 17% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers Arceus, so these odds come from thepricedex.com, which discloses a disclosed sample. Sources that do not state how many packs they counted are not used here, however confident they sound.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arceus Booster Pack | $529.41 | $91.44 | 17% |
| Arceus Collector's Tin [Green] | — | $274.33 | TBD |
| Arceus Collector's Tin [Blue] | — | $274.33 | TBD |
| Arceus 3 Pack Blister [Darkrai] | — | $274.33 | TBD |
| Arceus Booster Box | — | $3292.02 | TBD |
Arceus Booster Pack · Arceus Collector's Tin [Green] · Arceus Collector's Tin [Blue] · Arceus 3 Pack Blister [Darkrai] · Arceus Booster Box
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $529.41 | 17% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare | 8.33% | |
| Holo Rare | 25% | |
| Shiny Holo Rare | 25% | |
| Rare | 66.67% | |
| Common | 500% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gengar Lv.X | Ultra Rare | $482.14 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $38132.77 |
| Ponyta (Shiny) | Shiny Holo Rare | $204.10 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $6352.92 |
| Arceus Lv.X (95) | Ultra Rare | $184.99 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $38132.77 |
| Shinx (Shiny) | Shiny Holo Rare | $165.00 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $6352.92 |
| Salamence Lv.X | Ultra Rare | $110.10 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $38132.77 |
| Bagon (Shiny) | Shiny Holo Rare | $101.75 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $6352.92 |
| Arceus Lv.X (94) | Ultra Rare | $71.56 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $38132.77 |
| Tangrowth Lv.X | Ultra Rare | $50.54 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $38132.77 |
| Arceus Lv.X (96) | Ultra Rare | $38.99 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $38132.77 |
| Gengar (16) | Rare | $186.12 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Charizard | Holo Rare | $111.14 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Gengar (17) | Rare | $92.32 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Charmander | Common | $88.92 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Gengar (17) | Rare | $80.25 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Charizard | Holo Rare | $72.31 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Arceus (AR1) | Holo Rare | $63.24 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Arceus (AR4) | Holo Rare | $53.98 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Arceus (AR5) | Holo Rare | $53.94 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Pikachu | Common | $49.73 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Arceus (AR7) | Holo Rare | $48.18 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Arceus (AR9) | Holo Rare | $45.42 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Gengar (16) | Rare | $44.39 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Snorunt | Common | $40.95 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Arceus (AR2) | Holo Rare | $40.07 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Arceus (AR8) | Holo Rare | $36.99 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Arceus (AR3) | Holo Rare | $36.66 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Zapdos G | Holo Rare | $34.43 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Arceus (AR6) | Holo Rare | $33.61 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Raichu | Rare | $32.49 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Haunter (41) | Uncommon | $32.32 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Pichu | Rare | $26.00 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Ponyta (46) | Uncommon | $23.20 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Gastly (64) | Common | $21.98 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Treecko (78) | Common | $21.89 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Haunter (42) | Uncommon | $19.92 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Kabutops | Holo Rare | $19.85 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Burmy Sandy Cloak | Common | $18.71 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Ponyta (72) | Common | $18.33 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Zapdos G | Holo Rare | $18.29 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Cherubi | Common | $17.54 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Kabutops | Holo Rare | $17.23 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Salamence | Holo Rare | $17.09 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Croagunk | Common | $15.90 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Sceptile (31) | Rare | $15.79 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Luxio | Uncommon | $15.65 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Cherrim | Rare | $15.61 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Froslass | Holo Rare | $15.44 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Charmeleon | Uncommon | $14.39 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Bagon | Common | $14.19 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Treecko (79) | Common | $13.90 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Salamence | Holo Rare | $11.99 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Professor Oak's Visit | Uncommon | $11.60 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Pichu | Rare | $11.04 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Gastly (36) | Uncommon | $10.55 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Haunter (41) | Uncommon | $10.15 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Tangela (77) | Common | $10.00 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Spiritomb | Rare | $9.05 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Froslass | Holo Rare | $8.89 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Tangela (76) | Common | $8.84 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Lopunny | Rare | $8.72 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Porygon-Z G | Rare | $8.44 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Rapidash (28) | Rare | $8.23 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Burmy Plant Cloak | Common | $8.11 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Luxray | Holo Rare | $7.82 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Sceptile (30) | Rare | $7.75 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Cherrim | Rare | $7.67 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Electrike (62) | Common | $7.63 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Graveler | Uncommon | $7.61 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Lopunny | Rare | $7.53 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Pikachu | Common | $7.31 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Makuhita | Common | $6.99 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Rapidash (47) | Uncommon | $6.73 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Golem | Rare | $6.70 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Raichu | Rare | $6.53 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Spiritomb | Rare | $6.28 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Shinx | Common | $6.24 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Wingull (81) | Common | $6.14 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Omastar | Rare | $5.99 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Aerodactyl | Rare | $5.97 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Mothim | Holo Rare | $5.97 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Luxray | Holo Rare | $5.90 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Toxicroak | Holo Rare | $5.79 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Gulpin (40) | Uncommon | $5.45 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Omanyte | Common | $5.38 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Swalot | Holo Rare | $5.28 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Department Store Girl | Uncommon | $4.87 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Beedrill G | Common | $4.77 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Manectric (22) | Rare | $4.72 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Kabuto | Common | $4.57 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Rattata | Common | $4.55 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Buneary | Common | $4.52 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Snorunt | Common | $4.42 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Tangrowth | Holo Rare | $4.39 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Nosepass | Common | $4.34 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Swalot | Holo Rare | $4.31 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Sceptile (30) | Rare | $4.30 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Electrike (63) | Common | $4.03 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Geodude | Common | $3.98 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Bronzong (14) | Rare | $3.95 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Tangrowth | Holo Rare | $3.89 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Omastar | Rare | $3.88 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Mothim | Holo Rare | $3.76 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Aerodactyl | Rare | $3.55 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Dome Fossil | Common | $3.52 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Lucky Egg | Uncommon | $3.52 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Heatran | Holo Rare | $3.50 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Raticate | Rare | $3.50 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Ultimate Zone | Uncommon | $3.48 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Hariyama | Rare | $3.32 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Heatran | Holo Rare | $3.30 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Sceptile (31) | Rare | $3.25 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Charmander | Common | $3.15 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Toxicroak | Holo Rare | $3.10 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Glalie | Rare | $3.09 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Gulpin (66) | Common | $3.08 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Haunter (42) | Uncommon | $2.96 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Grovyle (38) | Uncommon | $2.88 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Probopass | Holo Rare | $2.79 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Bronzor (54) | Common | $2.78 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Pelipper (24) | Rare | $2.62 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Gulpin (40) | Uncommon | $2.60 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Beginning Door | Uncommon | $2.31 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Cherubi | Common | $2.16 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Expert Belt | Uncommon | $2.11 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Wingull (80) | Common | $2.09 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Charmeleon | Uncommon | $2.06 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Manectric (44) | Uncommon | $2.02 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Porygon-Z G | Rare | $1.99 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Shelgon | Uncommon | $1.97 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Grovyle (39) | Uncommon | $1.77 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Burmy Trash Cloak | Common | $1.76 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Helix Fossil | Common | $1.75 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Treecko (78) | Common | $1.71 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Golem | Rare | $1.66 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Probopass | Holo Rare | $1.62 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Rapidash (28) | Rare | $1.61 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Ponyta (46) | Uncommon | $1.52 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Gastly (36) | Uncommon | $1.48 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Bronzor (34) | Uncommon | $1.46 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Wormadam Trash Cloak | Uncommon | $1.33 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Pelipper (45) | Uncommon | $1.27 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Graveler | Uncommon | $1.21 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Bronzong (33) | Uncommon | $1.14 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Raticate | Rare | $1.13 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Wormadam Sandy Cloak | Uncommon | $1.12 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Glalie | Rare | $1.02 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Wormadam Plant Cloak | Uncommon | $1.02 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Bench Shield | Uncommon | $1.01 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Energy Restore | Uncommon | $1.00 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Expert Belt | Uncommon | $0.92 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Pelipper (24) | Rare | $0.84 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Burmy Sandy Cloak | Common | $0.83 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Gastly (64) | Common | $0.82 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Old Amber | Uncommon | $0.82 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Grovyle (38) | Uncommon | $0.81 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Croagunk | Common | $0.75 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Buffer Piece | Uncommon | $0.73 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Rapidash (47) | Uncommon | $0.72 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Grovyle (39) | Uncommon | $0.71 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Hariyama | Rare | $0.71 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Bronzong (14) | Rare | $0.68 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Department Store Girl | Uncommon | $0.66 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Manectric (22) | Rare | $0.65 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Treecko (79) | Common | $0.57 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Lucky Egg | Uncommon | $0.56 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Kabuto | Common | $0.53 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Luxio | Uncommon | $0.51 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Bench Shield | Uncommon | $0.50 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Shelgon | Uncommon | $0.48 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Beedrill G | Common | $0.47 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Beginning Door | Uncommon | $0.46 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Burmy Plant Cloak | Common | $0.46 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Gulpin (66) | Common | $0.46 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Shinx | Common | $0.46 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Burmy Trash Cloak | Common | $0.45 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Tangela (77) | Common | $0.44 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Omanyte | Common | $0.43 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Bronzor (34) | Uncommon | $0.42 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Nosepass | Common | $0.42 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Bagon | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Bronzong (33) | Uncommon | $0.41 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Electrike (62) | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Professor Oak's Visit | Uncommon | $0.41 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Ultimate Zone | Uncommon | $0.41 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Rattata | Common | $0.40 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Buneary | Common | $0.39 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Dome Fossil | Common | $0.38 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Geodude | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Pelipper (45) | Uncommon | $0.37 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Ponyta (72) | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Manectric (44) | Uncommon | $0.36 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Wingull (81) | Common | $0.35 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Wormadam Trash Cloak | Uncommon | $0.35 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Makuhita | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Wingull (80) | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Tangela (76) | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Wormadam Sandy Cloak | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Wormadam Plant Cloak | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Bronzor (54) | Common | $0.30 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Helix Fossil | Common | $0.30 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Electrike (63) | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Old Amber | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Buffer Piece | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Energy Restore | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |