Arceus
A $568.06 Arceus pack returns $118.97 in expected card value on average — 21% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers Arceus. These odds come from thepricedex.com, which publishes a rate for each tier but does not say how many packs it counted to get there — so read them as indicative rather than measured. They are here because they are the best published figures for this set, and naming that limit is better than implying a precision the source never claimed.
About this set
Arceus shows how differently vintage packs behave. A sealed pack sells for over $550, and even its best card, the Gengar Lv.X at about $700, is worth only a little more than the pack it comes in. On these numbers a pack returns under a fifth of its price.
The odds come from thepricedex.com, which publishes rates without stating a sample size, so treat them as indicative. Much of the expected value comes from the shiny cards, which this source puts at about one pack in four; if that figure is generous, the true return is lower still. A sealed Arceus pack is a collectible, not something to open for profit. (Written November 2026. Returns quoted here count every card in the pack, whatever its value; prices move daily, and the figures above are current.)
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
- Pack EV: $118.97
- Cheapest pack: $568.06 (Arceus Booster Pack)
- Cards: 111 (204 versions)
Products in this set
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arceus Booster Pack | $568.06 | $118.97 | 21% |
| Arceus Collector's Tin [Green] | — | $356.92 | TBD |
| Arceus Collector's Tin [Blue] | — | $356.92 | TBD |
| Arceus 3 Pack Blister [Darkrai] | — | $356.92 | TBD |
| Arceus Booster Box | — | $4283.00 | TBD |
Where to buy
Arceus Booster Pack · Arceus Collector's Tin [Green] · Arceus Collector's Tin [Blue] · Arceus 3 Pack Blister [Darkrai] · Arceus Booster Box
Expected return by product type
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $568.06 | 21% |
Pull rates (source: community_estimate)
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare | 8.33% | |
| Holo Rare | 25% | |
| Shiny Holo Rare | 25% | |
| Rare | 66.67% | |
| Common | 500% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
Cards & odds
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gengar Lv.X | Ultra Rare | $743.45 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $40916.69 |
| Ponyta (Shiny) | Shiny Holo Rare | $301.30 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $6816.72 |
| Shinx (Shiny) | Shiny Holo Rare | $225.00 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $6816.72 |
| Arceus Lv.X (95) | Ultra Rare | $186.25 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $40916.69 |
| Salamence Lv.X | Ultra Rare | $135.19 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $40916.69 |
| Bagon (Shiny) | Shiny Holo Rare | $120.00 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $6816.72 |
| Arceus Lv.X (94) | Ultra Rare | $104.40 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $40916.69 |
| Arceus Lv.X (96) | Ultra Rare | $73.68 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $40916.69 |
| Tangrowth Lv.X | Ultra Rare | $59.13 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $40916.69 |
| Gengar (16) | Rare | $232.65 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Gengar (17) | Rare | $169.98 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Charizard | Holo Rare | $113.45 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Gengar (17) | Rare | $101.64 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Pikachu | Common | $99.25 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Charmander | Common | $96.35 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Charizard | Holo Rare | $72.31 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Arceus (AR1) | Holo Rare | $67.70 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Arceus (AR4) | Holo Rare | $60.35 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Arceus (AR7) | Holo Rare | $57.65 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Arceus (AR5) | Holo Rare | $56.78 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Arceus (AR2) | Holo Rare | $52.39 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Zapdos G | Holo Rare | $50.85 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Arceus (AR9) | Holo Rare | $48.34 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Gengar (16) | Rare | $46.87 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Snorunt | Common | $40.30 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Arceus (AR3) | Holo Rare | $38.36 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Arceus (AR8) | Holo Rare | $37.99 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Arceus (AR6) | Holo Rare | $37.18 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Pelipper (24) | Rare | $32.92 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Professor Oak's Visit | Uncommon | $31.00 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Haunter (41) | Uncommon | $26.73 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Raichu | Rare | $26.61 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Kabutops | Holo Rare | $25.07 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Gastly (64) | Common | $23.98 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Pichu | Rare | $23.81 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Treecko (78) | Common | $23.30 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Ponyta (46) | Uncommon | $23.20 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Haunter (42) | Uncommon | $20.45 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Burmy Sandy Cloak | Common | $20.27 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Cherubi | Common | $20.19 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Electrike (62) | Common | $20.00 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Kabutops | Holo Rare | $19.20 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Froslass | Holo Rare | $18.98 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Salamence | Holo Rare | $18.98 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Sceptile (31) | Rare | $18.49 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Zapdos G | Holo Rare | $18.44 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Ponyta (72) | Common | $18.33 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Charmeleon | Uncommon | $17.76 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Gulpin (40) | Uncommon | $16.89 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Croagunk | Common | $16.52 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Porygon-Z G | Rare | $16.21 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Treecko (79) | Common | $16.09 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Luxio | Uncommon | $15.65 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Cherrim | Rare | $15.52 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Haunter (41) | Uncommon | $14.38 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Bagon | Common | $14.19 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Salamence | Holo Rare | $14.14 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Toxicroak | Holo Rare | $13.75 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Ultimate Zone | Uncommon | $13.59 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Sceptile (30) | Rare | $13.38 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Lopunny | Rare | $12.83 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Rapidash (28) | Rare | $11.99 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Pichu | Rare | $11.74 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Burmy Plant Cloak | Common | $10.65 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Rattata | Common | $10.62 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Omanyte | Common | $10.03 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Gulpin (66) | Common | $10.00 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Spiritomb | Rare | $10.00 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Tangela (77) | Common | $10.00 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Luxray | Holo Rare | $9.81 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Gastly (36) | Uncommon | $9.70 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Aerodactyl | Rare | $9.48 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Tangela (76) | Common | $8.84 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Froslass | Holo Rare | $8.72 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Beginning Door | Uncommon | $8.16 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Pikachu | Common | $7.96 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Cherrim | Rare | $7.80 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Lopunny | Rare | $7.70 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Graveler | Uncommon | $7.67 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Luxray | Holo Rare | $7.50 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Wingull (81) | Common | $7.45 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Makuhita | Common | $7.15 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Spiritomb | Rare | $7.08 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Kabuto | Common | $6.93 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Heatran | Holo Rare | $6.78 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Golem | Rare | $6.77 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Omastar | Rare | $6.49 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Raichu | Rare | $6.44 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Swalot | Holo Rare | $6.40 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Shinx | Common | $6.29 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Mothim | Holo Rare | $6.16 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Heatran | Holo Rare | $6.00 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Rapidash (47) | Uncommon | $5.80 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Swalot | Holo Rare | $5.62 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Department Store Girl | Uncommon | $5.36 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Beedrill G | Common | $5.33 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Manectric (22) | Rare | $5.19 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Bronzong (14) | Rare | $5.12 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Electrike (63) | Common | $5.09 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Buneary | Common | $4.93 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Tangrowth | Holo Rare | $4.77 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Hariyama | Rare | $4.74 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Sceptile (30) | Rare | $4.52 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Omastar | Rare | $4.15 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Tangrowth | Holo Rare | $4.08 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Snorunt | Common | $4.05 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Nosepass | Common | $4.00 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Geodude | Common | $3.98 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Raticate | Rare | $3.86 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Mothim | Holo Rare | $3.76 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Aerodactyl | Rare | $3.68 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Bronzor (54) | Common | $3.55 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Dome Fossil | Common | $3.52 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Lucky Egg | Uncommon | $3.51 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Toxicroak | Holo Rare | $3.47 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Sceptile (31) | Rare | $3.35 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Grovyle (38) | Uncommon | $3.23 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Glalie | Rare | $3.18 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Charmander | Common | $3.09 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Haunter (42) | Uncommon | $2.96 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Gulpin (40) | Uncommon | $2.94 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Probopass | Holo Rare | $2.65 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Cherubi | Common | $2.46 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Treecko (78) | Common | $2.43 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Porygon-Z G | Rare | $2.40 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Expert Belt | Uncommon | $2.13 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Charmeleon | Uncommon | $2.09 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Wingull (80) | Common | $2.09 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Shelgon | Uncommon | $2.03 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Manectric (44) | Uncommon | $1.98 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Gastly (36) | Uncommon | $1.88 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Grovyle (39) | Uncommon | $1.86 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Burmy Trash Cloak | Common | $1.76 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Golem | Rare | $1.76 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Helix Fossil | Common | $1.75 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Graveler | Uncommon | $1.60 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Rapidash (28) | Rare | $1.60 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Probopass | Holo Rare | $1.59 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $33921.72 |
| Ponyta (46) | Uncommon | $1.36 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Wormadam Trash Cloak | Uncommon | $1.34 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Raticate | Rare | $1.31 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Bronzor (34) | Uncommon | $1.28 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Glalie | Rare | $1.25 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Pelipper (45) | Uncommon | $1.24 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Bronzong (33) | Uncommon | $1.23 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Wormadam Sandy Cloak | Uncommon | $1.17 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Bench Shield | Uncommon | $1.07 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Wormadam Plant Cloak | Uncommon | $1.05 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Energy Restore | Uncommon | $1.00 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Burmy Sandy Cloak | Common | $0.91 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Expert Belt | Uncommon | $0.90 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Old Amber | Uncommon | $0.90 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Rapidash (47) | Uncommon | $0.85 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Department Store Girl | Uncommon | $0.82 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Buffer Piece | Uncommon | $0.81 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Croagunk | Common | $0.81 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Pelipper (24) | Rare | $0.80 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Gastly (64) | Common | $0.78 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Bronzong (14) | Rare | $0.76 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Manectric (22) | Rare | $0.76 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Grovyle (38) | Uncommon | $0.74 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Treecko (79) | Common | $0.70 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Grovyle (39) | Uncommon | $0.69 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Hariyama | Rare | $0.68 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $12114.29 |
| Kabuto | Common | $0.67 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Lucky Egg | Uncommon | $0.58 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Shinx | Common | $0.52 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Bench Shield | Uncommon | $0.51 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Luxio | Uncommon | $0.51 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Beedrill G | Common | $0.48 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Burmy Plant Cloak | Common | $0.48 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Electrike (62) | Common | $0.47 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Bronzong (33) | Uncommon | $0.46 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Burmy Trash Cloak | Common | $0.46 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Tangela (77) | Common | $0.46 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Gulpin (66) | Common | $0.45 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Shelgon | Uncommon | $0.45 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Bagon | Common | $0.44 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Beginning Door | Uncommon | $0.43 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Buneary | Common | $0.43 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Omanyte | Common | $0.43 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Tangela (76) | Common | $0.43 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Dome Fossil | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Nosepass | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Rattata | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Bronzor (34) | Uncommon | $0.39 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Wormadam Trash Cloak | Uncommon | $0.39 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Pelipper (45) | Uncommon | $0.38 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Geodude | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Professor Oak's Visit | Uncommon | $0.37 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Ponyta (72) | Common | $0.36 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Makuhita | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Manectric (44) | Uncommon | $0.34 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Wingull (80) | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Wingull (81) | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Wormadam Sandy Cloak | Uncommon | $0.34 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Ultimate Zone | Uncommon | $0.33 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Helix Fossil | Common | $0.30 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Electrike (63) | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Wormadam Plant Cloak | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Bronzor (54) | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $2584.51 |
| Old Amber | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Buffer Piece | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |
| Energy Restore | Uncommon | $0.20 | 1 in 10 (10.34%) | $3903.69 |