A $927.56 Base Set pack returns $84.36 in expected card value on average — 9% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers Base Set, so these odds come from loosepacks.com, which discloses a 288-pack sample. Sources that do not state how many packs they counted are not used here, however confident they sound.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Set Booster Pack [Revised Unlimited Edition] | $927.56 | $84.36 | 9% |
| Base Set Booster Box [Revised Unlimited Edition] | — | $3037.13 | TBD |
Base Set Booster Pack [Revised Unlimited Edition] · Base Set Booster Box [Revised Unlimited Edition]
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $927.56 | 9% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Holo Rare | 33.33% | n=288 |
| Rare | 66.67% | |
| Common | 700% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charizard | Holo Rare | $944.53 | 1 in 48 (2.08%) | $37773.54 |
| Blastoise | Holo Rare | $222.34 | 1 in 48 (2.08%) | $37773.54 |
| Venusaur | Holo Rare | $173.95 | 1 in 48 (2.08%) | $37773.54 |
| Mewtwo | Holo Rare | $93.47 | 1 in 48 (2.08%) | $37773.54 |
| Alakazam | Holo Rare | $69.72 | 1 in 48 (2.08%) | $37773.54 |
| Raichu | Holo Rare | $68.06 | 1 in 48 (2.08%) | $37773.54 |
| Chansey | Holo Rare | $60.56 | 1 in 48 (2.08%) | $37773.54 |
| Clefairy | Holo Rare | $53.22 | 1 in 48 (2.08%) | $37773.54 |
| Zapdos | Holo Rare | $46.93 | 1 in 48 (2.08%) | $37773.54 |
| Gyarados | Holo Rare | $44.67 | 1 in 48 (2.08%) | $37773.54 |
| Nidoking | Holo Rare | $39.90 | 1 in 48 (2.08%) | $37773.54 |
| Ninetales | Holo Rare | $37.29 | 1 in 48 (2.08%) | $37773.54 |
| Magneton | Holo Rare | $37.25 | 1 in 48 (2.08%) | $37773.54 |
| Poliwrath | Holo Rare | $35.95 | 1 in 48 (2.08%) | $37773.54 |
| Hitmonchan | Holo Rare | $20.70 | 1 in 48 (2.08%) | $37773.54 |
| Dragonair | Rare | $19.39 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Pikachu | Common | $12.88 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Dugtrio | Rare | $11.05 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Electabuzz | Rare | $9.87 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Pidgeotto | Rare | $9.69 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Item Finder | Rare | $9.17 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Clefairy Doll | Rare | $9.06 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Scoop Up | Rare | $8.02 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Electrode | Rare | $7.86 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Pokemon Breeder | Rare | $6.92 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Imposter Professor Oak | Rare | $6.39 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Devolution Spray | Rare | $6.34 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Squirtle | Common | $6.32 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Double Colorless Energy | Uncommon | $6.17 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Ivysaur | Uncommon | $6.04 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Beedrill | Rare | $5.80 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Pokemon Trader | Rare | $4.81 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Wartortle | Uncommon | $4.74 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Charmeleon | Uncommon | $4.18 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Lass | Rare | $4.00 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Voltorb | Common | $3.94 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Arcanine | Uncommon | $3.71 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Dewgong | Uncommon | $3.71 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Bulbasaur | Common | $3.49 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Magmar | Uncommon | $3.45 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Super Energy Removal | Rare | $3.43 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Computer Search | Rare | $3.18 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Charmander | Common | $3.11 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Maintenance | Uncommon | $3.08 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Nidorino | Uncommon | $3.04 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Kadabra | Uncommon | $2.93 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Porygon | Uncommon | $2.93 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Magikarp | Uncommon | $2.82 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Pokemon Flute | Uncommon | $2.73 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Haunter | Uncommon | $2.64 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Dratini | Uncommon | $2.62 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Revive | Uncommon | $2.62 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Raticate | Uncommon | $2.55 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Professor Oak | Uncommon | $1.93 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Pokemon Center | Uncommon | $1.84 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Pidgey | Common | $1.76 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Poliwhirl | Uncommon | $1.68 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Full Heal | Uncommon | $1.68 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Kakuna | Uncommon | $1.56 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Abra | Common | $1.51 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Growlithe | Uncommon | $1.44 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Farfetch'd | Uncommon | $1.40 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Metapod | Common | $1.34 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Gastly | Common | $1.25 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Seel | Uncommon | $1.22 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Defender | Uncommon | $1.20 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Onix | Common | $1.11 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Doduo | Common | $1.09 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Caterpie | Common | $1.03 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Jynx | Uncommon | $0.95 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Rattata | Common | $0.90 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Machoke | Uncommon | $0.88 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Koffing | Common | $0.87 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Vulpix | Common | $0.87 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Poliwag | Common | $0.86 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Nidoran M | Common | $0.83 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Sandshrew | Common | $0.80 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Starmie | Common | $0.80 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Drowzee | Common | $0.79 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Tangela | Common | $0.79 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Staryu | Common | $0.78 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Psychic Energy | Common | $0.72 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Weedle | Common | $0.72 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Magnemite | Common | $0.71 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Diglett | Common | $0.65 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| PlusPower | Uncommon | $0.63 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Ponyta | Common | $0.62 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Energy Retrieval | Uncommon | $0.61 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Pokedex | Uncommon | $0.58 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Machop | Common | $0.51 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Lightning Energy | Common | $0.50 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Energy Removal | Common | $0.48 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Switch | Common | $0.43 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Water Energy | Common | $0.42 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Fire Energy | Common | $0.42 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Fighting Energy | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Grass Energy | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Bill | Common | $0.38 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Gust of Wind | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Potion | Common | $0.36 | 1 in 5 (18.42%) | TBD |
| Super Potion | Uncommon | $0.34 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | TBD |
| Charizard (Black Dot Error) | Holo Rare | — | 1 in 48 (2.08%) | $37773.54 |