A $436.74 Base Set 2 pack returns $50.29 in expected card value on average — 12% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers Base Set 2, so these odds come from elitefourum.com, which discloses a disclosed sample. Sources that do not state how many packs they counted are not used here, however confident they sound.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Set 2 Booster Pack | $436.74 | $50.29 | 12% |
| Base Set 2 Booster Box | — | $1810.54 | TBD |
Base Set 2 Booster Pack · Base Set 2 Booster Box
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $436.74 | 12% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Holo Rare | 33.33% | |
| Rare | 66.67% | |
| Common | 600% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charizard | Holo Rare | $470.72 | 1 in 60 (1.67%) | TBD |
| Blastoise | Holo Rare | $158.16 | 1 in 60 (1.67%) | TBD |
| Venusaur | Holo Rare | $113.32 | 1 in 60 (1.67%) | TBD |
| Mewtwo | Holo Rare | $92.05 | 1 in 60 (1.67%) | TBD |
| Raichu | Holo Rare | $63.56 | 1 in 60 (1.67%) | TBD |
| Alakazam | Holo Rare | $55.51 | 1 in 60 (1.67%) | TBD |
| Gyarados | Holo Rare | $45.40 | 1 in 60 (1.67%) | TBD |
| Nidoking | Holo Rare | $43.90 | 1 in 60 (1.67%) | TBD |
| Zapdos | Holo Rare | $40.81 | 1 in 60 (1.67%) | TBD |
| Pidgeot | Holo Rare | $40.68 | 1 in 60 (1.67%) | TBD |
| Clefable | Holo Rare | $35.42 | 1 in 60 (1.67%) | TBD |
| Ninetales | Holo Rare | $35.32 | 1 in 60 (1.67%) | TBD |
| Nidoqueen | Holo Rare | $33.37 | 1 in 60 (1.67%) | TBD |
| Scyther | Holo Rare | $30.80 | 1 in 60 (1.67%) | TBD |
| Snorlax | Rare | $28.42 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | TBD |
| Clefairy | Holo Rare | $27.91 | 1 in 60 (1.67%) | TBD |
| Hitmonchan | Holo Rare | $25.38 | 1 in 60 (1.67%) | TBD |
| Magneton | Holo Rare | $25.00 | 1 in 60 (1.67%) | TBD |
| Wigglytuff | Holo Rare | $23.74 | 1 in 60 (1.67%) | TBD |
| Chansey | Holo Rare | $22.25 | 1 in 60 (1.67%) | TBD |
| Poliwrath | Holo Rare | $20.16 | 1 in 60 (1.67%) | TBD |
| Dragonair | Rare | $13.18 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | TBD |
| Item Finder | Rare | $7.38 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | TBD |
| Mr. Mime | Rare | $7.00 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | TBD |
| Ivysaur | Uncommon | $6.93 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Electrode | Rare | $5.34 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | TBD |
| Scoop Up | Rare | $5.31 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | TBD |
| Pidgeotto | Rare | $5.16 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | TBD |
| Victreebel | Rare | $5.08 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | TBD |
| Electabuzz | Rare | $4.94 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | TBD |
| Pokemon Breeder | Rare | $4.78 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | TBD |
| Bulbasaur | Common | $4.69 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Venomoth | Rare | $4.64 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | TBD |
| Pinsir | Rare | $4.63 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | TBD |
| Kangaskhan | Rare | $4.55 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | TBD |
| Dugtrio | Rare | $4.22 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | TBD |
| Dodrio | Uncommon | $3.99 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Imposter Professor Oak | Rare | $3.87 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | TBD |
| Pokemon Trader | Rare | $3.67 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | TBD |
| Tauros | Uncommon | $3.65 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Marowak | Uncommon | $3.38 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Beedrill | Rare | $3.34 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | TBD |
| Double Colorless Energy | Uncommon | $3.29 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Pikachu | Common | $3.23 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Super Energy Removal | Rare | $3.21 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | TBD |
| Lass | Rare | $3.19 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | TBD |
| Persian | Uncommon | $2.95 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Computer Search | Rare | $2.83 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | TBD |
| Lickitung | Uncommon | $2.81 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Vulpix | Common | $2.57 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Kadabra | Uncommon | $2.31 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Charmeleon | Uncommon | $2.22 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Rhydon | Uncommon | $2.20 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Wartortle | Uncommon | $2.16 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Squirtle | Common | $2.04 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Magikarp | Uncommon | $2.02 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Arcanine | Uncommon | $1.97 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Charmander | Common | $1.83 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Nidorina | Uncommon | $1.83 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Nidorino | Uncommon | $1.77 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Poliwhirl | Uncommon | $1.77 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Growlithe | Uncommon | $1.65 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Dewgong | Uncommon | $1.60 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Haunter | Uncommon | $1.57 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Fearow | Uncommon | $1.55 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Jigglypuff | Common | $1.53 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Dratini | Uncommon | $1.45 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Butterfree | Uncommon | $1.41 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Professor Oak | Uncommon | $1.40 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Raticate | Uncommon | $1.34 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Jynx | Uncommon | $1.33 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Maintenance | Uncommon | $1.32 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Exeggutor | Uncommon | $1.29 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Parasect | Uncommon | $1.28 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Pidgey | Common | $1.25 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Magmar | Uncommon | $1.24 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Exeggcute | Common | $1.20 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Seaking | Uncommon | $1.20 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Fire Energy | Common | $1.17 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Caterpie | Common | $1.15 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Venonat | Common | $1.14 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Meowth | Common | $1.13 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Cubone | Common | $1.09 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Onix | Common | $1.08 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Farfetch'd | Uncommon | $1.05 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Spearow | Common | $1.03 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Pokemon Center | Uncommon | $1.01 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Tangela | Common | $0.98 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Weepinbell | Uncommon | $0.97 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Doduo | Common | $0.93 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Seel | Uncommon | $0.93 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Kakuna | Uncommon | $0.91 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Nidoran M | Common | $0.90 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Machoke | Uncommon | $0.89 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Metapod | Common | $0.89 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Diglett | Common | $0.87 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Rhyhorn | Common | $0.86 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Gastly | Common | $0.81 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Abra | Common | $0.80 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Bill | Common | $0.74 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Drowzee | Common | $0.73 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Goldeen | Common | $0.73 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Starmie | Common | $0.73 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Nidoran F | Common | $0.68 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Bellsprout | Common | $0.67 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Paras | Common | $0.66 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Rattata | Common | $0.65 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Voltorb | Common | $0.65 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Machop | Common | $0.64 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Poliwag | Common | $0.61 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Pokedex | Uncommon | $0.61 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Staryu | Common | $0.60 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Sandshrew | Common | $0.58 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Weedle | Common | $0.58 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| PlusPower | Uncommon | $0.54 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Magnemite | Common | $0.53 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Defender | Uncommon | $0.51 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Full Heal | Uncommon | $0.47 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Poke Ball | Common | $0.47 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Energy Removal | Common | $0.46 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Super Potion | Uncommon | $0.45 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Energy Retrieval | Uncommon | $0.44 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | TBD |
| Gust of Wind | Common | $0.43 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Fighting Energy | Common | $0.42 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Water Energy | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Grass Energy | Common | $0.38 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Switch | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Lightning Energy | Common | $0.36 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Psychic Energy | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |
| Potion | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | TBD |