A $203.49 Black and White pack returns $20.19 in expected card value on average — 10% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers Black and White, so these odds come from elitefourum.com, which discloses a 504-pack sample. Sources that do not state how many packs they counted are not used here, however confident they sound.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Black and White Booster Pack | $203.49 | $20.19 | 10% |
| New Legends Tin [Reshiram] | — | $60.56 | TBD |
| New Legends Tin [Zekrom] | — | $60.56 | TBD |
| Black & White 3 Pack Booster Blister Special Edition [Wigglytuff] | — | $60.56 | TBD |
| Black and White Booster Box | — | $726.69 | TBD |
Black and White Booster Pack · New Legends Tin [Reshiram] · New Legends Tin [Zekrom] · Black & White 3 Pack Booster Blister Special Edition [Wigglytuff] · Black and White Booster Box
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $203.49 | 10% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Secret Rare | 1.39% | n=504 |
| Ultra Rare | 5.56% | n=504 |
| Holo Rare | 26.39% | |
| Rare | 66.67% | |
| Common | 470% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pikachu | Secret Rare | $180.92 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $14639.57 |
| Zekrom (114 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $116.33 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $7319.78 |
| Reshiram (113 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $95.69 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $7319.78 |
| Reshiram | Holo Rare | $11.21 | 1 in 45 (2.2%) | $9421.30 |
| Sawsbuck | Rare | $11.21 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Deerling | Common | $10.44 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Ducklett | Common | $9.95 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Zoroark | Holo Rare | $9.69 | 1 in 45 (2.2%) | $9421.30 |
| Reshiram | Holo Rare | $9.64 | 1 in 45 (2.2%) | $9421.30 |
| Zekrom | Holo Rare | $8.70 | 1 in 45 (2.2%) | $9421.30 |
| Joltik (44) | Common | $8.12 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Sawsbuck | Rare | $7.81 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Zekrom | Holo Rare | $7.79 | 1 in 45 (2.2%) | $9421.30 |
| Water Energy | Common | $7.52 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Zorua | Common | $7.48 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Cinccino | Rare | $6.39 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Oshawott (28) | Common | $5.94 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Zoroark | Holo Rare | $5.78 | 1 in 45 (2.2%) | $9421.30 |
| Serperior (5) | Holo Rare | $5.61 | 1 in 45 (2.2%) | $9421.30 |
| Oshawott (27) | Common | $5.26 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Snivy (2) | Common | $4.78 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Sandile | Common | $4.76 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Scolipede | Rare | $4.70 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Emboar (20) | Holo Rare | $4.59 | 1 in 45 (2.2%) | $9421.30 |
| Lightning Energy | Common | $4.52 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Fire Energy | Common | $4.46 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Metal Energy (Basic) | Common | $4.40 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Joltik (45) | Common | $4.36 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Serperior (6) | Holo Rare | $4.36 | 1 in 45 (2.2%) | $9421.30 |
| Lillipup (80) | Common | $4.30 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Darkness Energy (Basic) | Common | $4.23 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Grass Energy | Common | $4.15 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Lilligant | Rare | $4.10 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Samurott (32) | Holo Rare | $3.98 | 1 in 45 (2.2%) | $9421.30 |
| Petilil | Common | $3.92 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Reuniclus | Holo Rare | $3.74 | 1 in 45 (2.2%) | $9421.30 |
| Fighting Energy | Common | $3.57 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Maractus (12) | Rare | $3.32 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Serperior (6) | Holo Rare | $3.27 | 1 in 45 (2.2%) | $9421.30 |
| Scrafty | Rare | $3.24 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Samurott (31) | Holo Rare | $3.21 | 1 in 45 (2.2%) | $9421.30 |
| Darumaka (24) | Uncommon | $3.18 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Emboar (19) | Holo Rare | $3.16 | 1 in 45 (2.2%) | $9421.30 |
| Solosis | Common | $3.14 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Pignite (18) | Uncommon | $3.04 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Servine (4) | Uncommon | $3.04 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Duosion | Uncommon | $3.02 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Samurott (32) | Holo Rare | $2.97 | 1 in 45 (2.2%) | $9421.30 |
| Samurott (31) | Holo Rare | $2.96 | 1 in 45 (2.2%) | $9421.30 |
| Emboar (20) | Holo Rare | $2.94 | 1 in 45 (2.2%) | $9421.30 |
| Servine (3) | Uncommon | $2.91 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Klinklang | Holo Rare | $2.87 | 1 in 45 (2.2%) | $9421.30 |
| Dewott (30) | Uncommon | $2.85 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Pignite (17) | Uncommon | $2.85 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Psychic Energy | Common | $2.85 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Reuniclus | Holo Rare | $2.79 | 1 in 45 (2.2%) | $9421.30 |
| Lilligant | Rare | $2.58 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Audino | Uncommon | $2.54 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Krookodile | Holo Rare | $2.52 | 1 in 45 (2.2%) | $9421.30 |
| Zorua | Common | $2.50 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Krookodile | Holo Rare | $2.47 | 1 in 45 (2.2%) | $9421.30 |
| Dewott (29) | Uncommon | $2.38 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Zebstrika (43) | Rare | $2.37 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Serperior (5) | Holo Rare | $2.31 | 1 in 45 (2.2%) | $9421.30 |
| Emboar (19) | Holo Rare | $2.23 | 1 in 45 (2.2%) | $9421.30 |
| Snivy (1) | Common | $2.22 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Tepig (16) | Common | $2.21 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Throh | Rare | $2.20 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Darmanitan | Rare | $2.17 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Sawk | Rare | $2.15 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Blitzle (40) | Common | $2.11 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Tepig (15) | Common | $2.11 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Whirlipede | Uncommon | $2.10 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Scraggy | Common | $2.06 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Bouffalant (90) | Uncommon | $1.98 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Patrat (78) | Common | $1.98 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Venipede | Common | $1.97 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Maractus (11) | Uncommon | $1.82 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Galvantula | Rare | $1.81 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Bouffalant (91) | Rare | $1.79 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Lillipup (81) | Common | $1.78 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Cinccino | Rare | $1.74 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Munna | Uncommon | $1.67 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Timburr (59) | Common | $1.67 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Zebstrika (42) | Uncommon | $1.63 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Liepard | Rare | $1.62 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Purrloin | Common | $1.54 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Liepard | Rare | $1.53 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Darumaka (23) | Common | $1.51 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Stoutland | Rare | $1.51 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Unfezant | Rare | $1.50 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Tranquill | Uncommon | $1.43 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Klink | Common | $1.42 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Timburr (58) | Common | $1.39 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Pidove | Common | $1.38 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Basculin | Uncommon | $1.37 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Krokorok | Uncommon | $1.32 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Energy Search | Common | $1.29 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Klinklang | Holo Rare | $1.28 | 1 in 45 (2.2%) | $9421.30 |
| Mandibuzz | Rare | $1.28 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Patrat (77) | Common | $1.26 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Woobat | Common | $1.23 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Panpour | Common | $1.17 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Watchog | Uncommon | $1.17 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Professor Juniper | Uncommon | $1.15 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Simipour | Uncommon | $1.14 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Swanna | Rare | $1.14 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Bouffalant (91) | Rare | $1.12 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Gurdurr | Uncommon | $1.12 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Stoutland | Rare | $1.11 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Swoobat | Uncommon | $1.09 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Minccino | Common | $1.07 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Pokemon Communication | Uncommon | $1.07 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Blitzle (41) | Common | $1.04 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Alomomola (39) | Rare | $1.03 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Alomomola (39) | Rare | $1.03 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Herdier | Uncommon | $1.03 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Klang | Uncommon | $1.03 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Pokedex | Uncommon | $1.02 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Simisage | Uncommon | $1.00 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Vullaby | Common | $1.00 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Oshawott (28) | Common | $0.95 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Zebstrika (43) | Rare | $0.95 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Throh | Rare | $0.93 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Maractus (12) | Rare | $0.90 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Watchog | Uncommon | $0.88 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Pignite (18) | Uncommon | $0.82 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Alomomola (38) | Uncommon | $0.78 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Darmanitan | Rare | $0.78 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Mandibuzz | Rare | $0.78 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Dewott (30) | Uncommon | $0.77 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Simisear | Uncommon | $0.77 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Swanna | Rare | $0.74 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Energy Switch | Uncommon | $0.73 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Musharna | Rare | $0.73 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Scrafty | Rare | $0.73 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Krokorok | Uncommon | $0.72 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Energy Retrieval | Uncommon | $0.71 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Snivy (2) | Common | $0.70 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| PlusPower | Uncommon | $0.68 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Poke Ball | Uncommon | $0.68 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Super Scoop Up | Uncommon | $0.68 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Pansage | Common | $0.67 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Pignite (17) | Uncommon | $0.67 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Pansear | Common | $0.65 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Potion | Common | $0.64 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Sawk | Rare | $0.64 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Scolipede | Rare | $0.63 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Switch | Common | $0.62 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Revive | Uncommon | $0.60 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Deerling | Common | $0.58 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Minccino | Common | $0.58 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Musharna | Rare | $0.57 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Zebstrika (42) | Uncommon | $0.55 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Galvantula | Rare | $0.54 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Oshawott (27) | Common | $0.53 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Duosion | Uncommon | $0.52 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Herdier | Uncommon | $0.52 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Darumaka (24) | Uncommon | $0.51 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Full Heal | Uncommon | $0.50 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Servine (4) | Uncommon | $0.49 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Lillipup (80) | Common | $0.48 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Tranquill | Uncommon | $0.47 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Unfezant | Rare | $0.47 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $5904.62 |
| Servine (3) | Uncommon | $0.45 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Gurdurr | Uncommon | $0.44 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Klang | Uncommon | $0.44 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Solosis | Common | $0.43 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Joltik (44) | Common | $0.42 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Simisage | Uncommon | $0.42 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Maractus (11) | Uncommon | $0.40 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Munna | Uncommon | $0.40 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Swoobat | Uncommon | $0.40 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Tepig (16) | Common | $0.39 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Basculin | Uncommon | $0.38 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Pokedex | Uncommon | $0.37 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Snivy (1) | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Tepig (15) | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Scraggy | Common | $0.36 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Vullaby | Common | $0.36 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Audino | Uncommon | $0.35 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Dewott (29) | Uncommon | $0.35 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Whirlipede | Uncommon | $0.35 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Ducklett | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Petilil | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Joltik (45) | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Pidove | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Woobat | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Simipour | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Alomomola (38) | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Bouffalant (90) | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Klink | Common | $0.30 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Lillipup (81) | Common | $0.30 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Blitzle (40) | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| PlusPower | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Energy Switch | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Simisear | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Professor Juniper | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Blitzle (41) | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Darumaka (23) | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Panpour | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Pansage | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Purrloin | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Switch | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Patrat (77) | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Patrat (78) | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Poke Ball | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Revive | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Sandile | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Super Scoop Up | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Timburr (59) | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Venipede | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Pansear | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Energy Search | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Full Heal | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Pokemon Communication | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Timburr (58) | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |
| Energy Retrieval | Uncommon | $0.15 | 1 in 12 (8.33%) | $2486.28 |
| Potion | Common | $0.11 | 1 in 10 (10.44%) | $1983.73 |