Celebrations
A $26.31 Celebrations pack returns $16.84 in expected card value on average — 64% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers Celebrations, so these odds come from x.com, which discloses a 5,000-pack sample. A stated count is the difference between a measured rate and a confident guess, so it is recorded here whenever a source gives one.
About this set
Celebrations is a small 25th-anniversary set with a reprint subset, the Classic Collection, that recreates famous cards from the game's history. Its top cards are those reprints: Charizard at about $130 and Umbreon Star at about $75. None is rare enough to be a true lottery ticket; the Charizard is roughly a one-in-140-pack pull.
That makes Celebrations one of the better sets on this site to open, returning about 60% of the price of a loose pack at around $29. Its packs hold four cards each rather than the usual ten. (Written November 2026. Returns quoted here count every card in the pack, whatever its value; prices move daily, and the figures above are current.)
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
- Pack EV: $16.84
- Cheapest pack: $26.31 (Celebrations Booster Pack)
- Cards: 51
Products in this set
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celebrations Booster Pack | $26.31 | $16.84 | 64% |
| Celebrations Mini Tin [Unova] | $55.34 | $33.68 | 61% |
| Celebrations Mini Tin [Alola] | $59.99 | $33.68 | 56% |
| Celebrations Mini Tin [Johto] | $66.88 | $33.68 | 50% |
| Celebrations Elite Trainer Box | $306.50 | $151.56 | 49% |
| Celebrations Mini Tin [Galar] | $69.69 | $33.68 | 48% |
| Celebrations Mini Tin [Kalos] | $69.83 | $33.68 | 48% |
| Celebrations Mini Tin [Sinnoh] | $72.58 | $33.68 | 46% |
| Celebrations Mini Tin [Kanto] | $74.99 | $33.68 | 45% |
| Celebrations Mini Tin [Hoenn] | $76.17 | $33.68 | 44% |
| Pokemon Celebrations International Tin [Lance's Charizard V] | $119.27 | $50.52 | 42% |
| Pokemon Celebrations International Tin [Dark Sylveon V] | $127.85 | $50.52 | 40% |
| Celebrations Ultra-Premium Collection | $1173.87 | $421.00 | 36% |
| Celebrations Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box (Exclusive) | $483.66 | $151.56 | 31% |
| Pokemon Celebrations Tin [Dark Sylveon V] | $173.99 | $50.52 | 29% |
| Pokemon Celebrations Tin [Lance's Charizard V] | $188.65 | $50.52 | 27% |
Where to buy
Celebrations Booster Pack · Celebrations Mini Tin [Unova] · Celebrations Mini Tin [Alola] · Celebrations Mini Tin [Johto] · Celebrations Elite Trainer Box · Celebrations Mini Tin [Galar] · Celebrations Mini Tin [Kalos] · Celebrations Mini Tin [Sinnoh] · Celebrations Mini Tin [Kanto] · Celebrations Mini Tin [Hoenn] · Pokemon Celebrations International Tin [Lance's Charizard V] · Pokemon Celebrations International Tin [Dark Sylveon V] · Celebrations Ultra-Premium Collection · Celebrations Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box (Exclusive) · Pokemon Celebrations Tin [Dark Sylveon V] · Pokemon Celebrations Tin [Lance's Charizard V]
Expected return by product type
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $26.31 | 64% |
| Elite Trainer Box | $34.06 | 49% |
Pull rates (source: community_estimate)
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Secret Rare | 0.67% | n=5000 |
| Professor's Research (Full Art) | 4% | n=5000 |
| Holo Vmax | 7.69% | n=5000 |
| Pikachu V | 11.11% | n=5000 |
| Holo V | 25% | n=5000 |
| Classic Collection — 25 cards | 40.66% | n=5000 |
Cards & odds
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charizard | Classic Collection | $122.66 | 1 in 139 (0.72%) | $3659.25 |
| Umbreon Star | Classic Collection | $70.10 | 1 in 119 (0.84%) | $3132.14 |
| Mew (Secret) | Secret Rare | $48.77 | 1 in 150 (0.67%) | $3944.53 |
| Shining Magikarp | Classic Collection | $25.71 | 1 in 128 (0.78%) | $3368.76 |
| M Rayquaza EX | Classic Collection | $24.32 | 1 in 119 (0.84%) | $3132.14 |
| ______'s Pikachu | Classic Collection | $22.49 | 1 in 52 (1.92%) | $1368.17 |
| Zekrom | Classic Collection | $14.72 | 1 in 106 (0.94%) | $2790.03 |
| Reshiram | Classic Collection | $14.34 | 1 in 86 (1.16%) | $2262.25 |
| Blastoise | Classic Collection | $14.15 | 1 in 47 (2.13%) | $1236.37 |
| Mew ex | Classic Collection | $13.43 | 1 in 94 (1.06%) | $2472.74 |
| Mewtwo EX | Classic Collection | $12.00 | 1 in 139 (0.72%) | $3659.25 |
| Venusaur | Classic Collection | $11.10 | 1 in 49 (2.04%) | $1289.07 |
| Gardevoir ex (Delta Species) | Classic Collection | $8.59 | 1 in 94 (1.06%) | $2472.74 |
| Dark Gyarados | Classic Collection | $5.13 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $789.38 |
| Surfing Pikachu VMAX | Holo Vmax | $5.09 | 1 in 26 (3.85%) | $684.27 |
| Flying Pikachu VMAX | Holo Vmax | $4.84 | 1 in 26 (3.85%) | $684.27 |
| Garchomp C LV.X | Classic Collection | $4.29 | 1 in 64 (1.56%) | $1683.30 |
| Xerneas EX | Classic Collection | $4.28 | 1 in 161 (0.62%) | $4236.71 |
| Tapu Lele GX | Classic Collection | $4.23 | 1 in 161 (0.62%) | $4236.71 |
| Luxray GL LV.X | Classic Collection | $3.78 | 1 in 91 (1.1%) | $2393.99 |
| Surfing Pikachu V | Pikachu V | $3.22 | 1 in 18 (5.56%) | $473.63 |
| Rocket's Zapdos | Classic Collection | $2.97 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $947.08 |
| Flying Pikachu V | Pikachu V | $2.86 | 1 in 18 (5.56%) | $473.63 |
| Cleffa | Classic Collection | $1.92 | 1 in 46 (2.17%) | $1210.21 |
| Donphan (Prime) | Classic Collection | $1.46 | 1 in 78 (1.28%) | $2052.26 |
| Team Magma's Groudon | Classic Collection | $1.39 | 1 in 38 (2.63%) | $999.62 |
| Here Comes Team Rocket! | Classic Collection | $0.87 | 1 in 40 (2.5%) | $1052.40 |
| Professor's Research [Professor Oak] (Full Art) | Professor's Research (Full Art) | $0.84 | 1 in 25 (4%) | $657.75 |
| Zamazenta V | Holo V | $0.69 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | $210.48 |
| Zacian V | Holo V | $0.63 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | $210.48 |
| Rocket's Admin. | Classic Collection | $0.51 | 1 in 46 (2.17%) | $1210.21 |
| Claydol | Classic Collection | $0.40 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $868.32 |
| Imposter Professor Oak | Classic Collection | $0.39 | 1 in 38 (2.63%) | $999.62 |
| Pikachu | Holo Rare | $4.24 | TBD | TBD |
| Mew | Holo Rare | $2.81 | TBD | TBD |
| Lugia | Holo Rare | $0.63 | TBD | TBD |
| Groudon | Holo Rare | $0.48 | TBD | TBD |
| Ho-Oh | Holo Rare | $0.37 | TBD | TBD |
| Zekrom | Holo Rare | $0.36 | TBD | TBD |
| Lunala | Holo Rare | $0.32 | TBD | TBD |
| Cosmoem | Holo Rare | $0.30 | TBD | TBD |
| Solgaleo | Holo Rare | $0.30 | TBD | TBD |
| Dialga | Holo Rare | $0.28 | TBD | TBD |
| Kyogre | Holo Rare | $0.28 | TBD | TBD |
| Professor's Research [Professor Oak] | Holo Rare | $0.28 | TBD | TBD |
| Reshiram | Holo Rare | $0.26 | TBD | TBD |
| Xerneas | Holo Rare | $0.23 | TBD | TBD |
| Cosmog | Holo Rare | $0.18 | TBD | TBD |
| Yveltal | Holo Rare | $0.18 | TBD | TBD |
| Palkia | Holo Rare | $0.17 | TBD | TBD |
| Ponyta | Promo | — | TBD | TBD |