A $26.35 Celebrations pack returns $20.43 in expected card value on average — 78% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers Celebrations, so these odds come from x.com, which discloses a 5,000-pack sample. Sources that do not state how many packs they counted are not used here, however confident they sound.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celebrations Mini Tin [Alola] | $52.70 | $40.85 | 78% |
| Celebrations Mini Tin [Unova] | $52.92 | $40.85 | 77% |
| Celebrations Mini Tin [Galar] | $54.02 | $40.85 | 76% |
| Celebrations Mini Tin [Kalos] | $59.88 | $40.85 | 68% |
| Celebrations Mini Tin [Sinnoh] | $60.67 | $40.85 | 67% |
| Celebrations Mini Tin [Hoenn] | $62.77 | $40.85 | 65% |
| Celebrations Mini Tin [Johto] | $63.32 | $40.85 | 65% |
| Celebrations Booster Pack | $33.85 | $20.43 | 60% |
| Celebrations Mini Tin [Kanto] | $67.99 | $40.85 | 60% |
| Pokemon Celebrations International Tin [Lance's Charizard V] | $108.94 | $61.28 | 56% |
| Celebrations Elite Trainer Box | $359.03 | $183.84 | 51% |
| Pokemon Celebrations International Tin [Dark Sylveon V] | $127.85 | $61.28 | 48% |
| Celebrations Ultra-Premium Collection | $1226.14 | $510.66 | 42% |
| Pokemon Celebrations Tin [Dark Sylveon V] | $173.99 | $61.28 | 35% |
| Celebrations Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box (Exclusive) | $529.46 | $183.84 | 35% |
| Pokemon Celebrations Tin [Lance's Charizard V] | $187.73 | $61.28 | 33% |
Celebrations Mini Tin [Alola] · Celebrations Mini Tin [Unova] · Celebrations Mini Tin [Galar] · Celebrations Mini Tin [Kalos] · Celebrations Mini Tin [Sinnoh] · Celebrations Mini Tin [Hoenn] · Celebrations Mini Tin [Johto] · Celebrations Booster Pack · Celebrations Mini Tin [Kanto] · Pokemon Celebrations International Tin [Lance's Charizard V] · Celebrations Elite Trainer Box · Pokemon Celebrations International Tin [Dark Sylveon V] · Celebrations Ultra-Premium Collection · Pokemon Celebrations Tin [Dark Sylveon V] · Celebrations Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box (Exclusive) · Pokemon Celebrations Tin [Lance's Charizard V]
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $33.85 | 60% |
| Elite Trainer Box | $39.89 | 51% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Secret Rare | 0.67% | n=5000 |
| Professor's Research (Full Art) | 4% | n=5000 |
| Holo Vmax | 7.69% | n=5000 |
| Pikachu V | 11.11% | n=5000 |
| Holo V | 25% | n=5000 |
| Classic Collection — 25 cards | 40.66% | n=5000 |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charizard | Classic Collection | $155.02 | 1 in 139 (0.72%) | $3664.81 |
| Umbreon Star | Classic Collection | $86.17 | 1 in 119 (0.84%) | $3136.90 |
| Mew (Secret) | Secret Rare | $63.65 | 1 in 150 (0.67%) | $3950.52 |
| M Rayquaza EX | Classic Collection | $38.74 | 1 in 119 (0.84%) | $3136.90 |
| Shining Magikarp | Classic Collection | $35.72 | 1 in 128 (0.78%) | $3373.88 |
| ______'s Pikachu | Classic Collection | $29.94 | 1 in 52 (1.92%) | $1370.25 |
| Mew ex | Classic Collection | $18.06 | 1 in 94 (1.06%) | $2476.50 |
| Blastoise | Classic Collection | $15.59 | 1 in 47 (2.13%) | $1238.25 |
| Zekrom | Classic Collection | $15.07 | 1 in 106 (0.94%) | $2794.27 |
| Reshiram | Classic Collection | $14.72 | 1 in 86 (1.16%) | $2265.69 |
| Mewtwo EX | Classic Collection | $13.41 | 1 in 139 (0.72%) | $3664.81 |
| Venusaur | Classic Collection | $10.65 | 1 in 49 (2.04%) | $1291.03 |
| Gardevoir ex (Delta Species) | Classic Collection | $9.00 | 1 in 94 (1.06%) | $2476.50 |
| Surfing Pikachu VMAX | Holo Vmax | $6.93 | 1 in 26 (3.85%) | $685.31 |
| Flying Pikachu VMAX | Holo Vmax | $6.03 | 1 in 26 (3.85%) | $685.31 |
| Garchomp C LV.X | Classic Collection | $5.58 | 1 in 64 (1.56%) | $1685.86 |
| Tapu Lele GX | Classic Collection | $5.36 | 1 in 161 (0.62%) | $4243.16 |
| Dark Gyarados | Classic Collection | $5.33 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $790.58 |
| Xerneas EX | Classic Collection | $4.48 | 1 in 161 (0.62%) | $4243.16 |
| Luxray GL LV.X | Classic Collection | $3.98 | 1 in 91 (1.1%) | $2397.63 |
| Flying Pikachu V | Pikachu V | $3.70 | 1 in 18 (5.56%) | $474.35 |
| Surfing Pikachu V | Pikachu V | $3.63 | 1 in 18 (5.56%) | $474.35 |
| Rocket's Zapdos | Classic Collection | $3.26 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $948.52 |
| Cleffa | Classic Collection | $2.40 | 1 in 46 (2.17%) | $1212.05 |
| Donphan (Prime) | Classic Collection | $1.76 | 1 in 78 (1.28%) | $2055.38 |
| Team Magma's Groudon | Classic Collection | $1.61 | 1 in 38 (2.63%) | $1001.14 |
| Professor's Research [Professor Oak] (Full Art) | Professor's Research (Full Art) | $1.11 | 1 in 25 (4%) | $658.75 |
| Zacian V | Holo V | $0.85 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | $210.80 |
| Zamazenta V | Holo V | $0.75 | 1 in 8 (12.5%) | $210.80 |
| Here Comes Team Rocket! | Classic Collection | $0.74 | 1 in 40 (2.5%) | $1054.00 |
| Claydol | Classic Collection | $0.46 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $869.64 |
| Rocket's Admin. | Classic Collection | $0.42 | 1 in 46 (2.17%) | $1212.05 |
| Imposter Professor Oak | Classic Collection | $0.37 | 1 in 38 (2.63%) | $1001.14 |
| Pikachu | Holo Rare | $4.39 | TBD | TBD |
| Mew | Holo Rare | $3.36 | TBD | TBD |
| Lugia | Holo Rare | $0.88 | TBD | TBD |
| Lunala | Holo Rare | $0.43 | TBD | TBD |
| Kyogre | Holo Rare | $0.42 | TBD | TBD |
| Groudon | Holo Rare | $0.39 | TBD | TBD |
| Zekrom | Holo Rare | $0.37 | TBD | TBD |
| Reshiram | Holo Rare | $0.36 | TBD | TBD |
| Cosmog | Holo Rare | $0.36 | TBD | TBD |
| Solgaleo | Holo Rare | $0.36 | TBD | TBD |
| Ho-Oh | Holo Rare | $0.35 | TBD | TBD |
| Xerneas | Holo Rare | $0.33 | TBD | TBD |
| Palkia | Holo Rare | $0.30 | TBD | TBD |
| Professor's Research [Professor Oak] | Holo Rare | $0.30 | TBD | TBD |
| Cosmoem | Holo Rare | $0.29 | TBD | TBD |
| Dialga | Holo Rare | $0.27 | TBD | TBD |
| Yveltal | Holo Rare | $0.27 | TBD | TBD |
| Ponyta | Promo | — | TBD | TBD |