Champion's Path
A $18.61 Champion's Path pack returns $4.27 in expected card value on average — 23% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers Champion's Path, so these odds come from elitefourum.com, which discloses a 3,192-pack sample. A stated count is the difference between a measured rate and a confident guess, so it is recorded here whenever a source gives one.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
- Pack EV: $4.27
- Cheapest pack: $18.61 (Champion's Path Premium Collection [Marnie])
- Cards: 80 (134 versions)
Products in this set
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Champion's Path Premium Collection [Marnie] | $148.91 | $34.14 | 23% |
| Champion's Path Booster Pack | $19.98 | $4.27 | 21% |
| Champion's Path Elite Trainer Box | $207.70 | $38.41 | 18% |
Where to buy
Champion's Path Premium Collection [Marnie] · Champion's Path Booster Pack · Champion's Path Elite Trainer Box
Expected return by product type
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $19.98 | 21% |
| Elite Trainer Box | $23.08 | 18% |
Pull rates (source: community_estimate)
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Secret Rare | 2.89% | n=3192 |
| Ultra Rare | 24.67% | n=3192 |
| Holo Rare | 71.43% | |
| Common | 500% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
Cards & odds
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charizard V (Secret) | Secret Rare | $230.16 | 1 in 242 (0.41%) | $4508.52 |
| Charizard VMAX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $180.87 | 1 in 242 (0.41%) | $4508.52 |
| Gardevoir VMAX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $18.85 | 1 in 242 (0.41%) | $4508.52 |
| Drednaw VMAX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $6.56 | 1 in 242 (0.41%) | $4508.52 |
| Alcremie VMAX | Ultra Rare | $5.65 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1433.57 |
| Gardevoir VMAX | Ultra Rare | $4.47 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1433.57 |
| Gardevoir V (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $3.66 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1433.57 |
| Lucario V | Ultra Rare | $3.24 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1433.57 |
| Piers (Secret) | Secret Rare | $2.99 | 1 in 242 (0.41%) | $4508.52 |
| Venusaur V | Ultra Rare | $2.63 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1433.57 |
| Kabu (Secret) | Secret Rare | $2.62 | 1 in 242 (0.41%) | $4508.52 |
| Drednaw VMAX | Ultra Rare | $2.33 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1433.57 |
| Alcremie V | Ultra Rare | $2.14 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1433.57 |
| Gardevoir V | Ultra Rare | $1.68 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1433.57 |
| Galarian Cursola V (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $1.65 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1433.57 |
| Grapploct V (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $1.56 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1433.57 |
| Incineroar V | Ultra Rare | $1.53 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1433.57 |
| Suspicious Food Tin (Secret) | Secret Rare | $1.45 | 1 in 242 (0.41%) | $4508.52 |
| Wailord V | Ultra Rare | $1.35 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1433.57 |
| Drednaw V (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $1.22 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1433.57 |
| Hop (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $1.22 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1433.57 |
| Galarian Cursola V | Ultra Rare | $0.99 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1433.57 |
| Grapploct V | Ultra Rare | $0.88 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1433.57 |
| Eldegoss V | Ultra Rare | $0.85 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1433.57 |
| Drednaw V | Ultra Rare | $0.72 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1433.57 |
| Duraludon V | Ultra Rare | $0.71 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1433.57 |
| Weedle | Common | $0.84 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Machop | Common | $0.38 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Trubbish | Common | $0.38 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Weedle | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Machamp | Holo Rare | $0.37 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Vulpix | Common | $0.35 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Marnie | Holo Rare | $0.35 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Machamp | Holo Rare | $0.34 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Rockruff | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Swablu | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Absol | Uncommon | $0.33 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Scrafty | Holo Rare | $0.33 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Hattrem | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Lycanroc | Holo Rare | $0.32 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Piers | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Professor's Research [Professor Magnolia] | Holo Rare | $0.32 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Rotom Phone | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Purrloin | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Scraggy | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Altaria | Holo Rare | $0.31 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Marnie | Holo Rare | $0.31 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Pokemon Center Lady | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Carvanha | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Machoke | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Galarian Linoone | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Inkay | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Bede | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Victini | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Hop | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Turffield Stadium | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Kakuna | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Beedrill | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Vulpix | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Hatterene | Holo Rare | $0.27 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Zygarde | Holo Rare | $0.26 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Absol | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Altaria | Holo Rare | $0.26 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Centiskorch | Holo Rare | $0.25 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Sharpedo | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Zygarde | Holo Rare | $0.25 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Liepard | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Hyper Potion | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Professor's Research [Professor Magnolia] | Holo Rare | $0.25 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Sizzlipede | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Hatterene | Holo Rare | $0.24 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Trubbish | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Swablu | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Rolycoly | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Arbok | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Galarian Zigzagoon | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Potion | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Beedrill | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Victini | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Hattrem | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Galarian Obstagoon | Holo Rare | $0.22 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Scraggy | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Poke Ball | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Turffield Stadium | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Rockruff | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Scrafty | Holo Rare | $0.21 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Nickit | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Rotom Bike | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Lycanroc | Holo Rare | $0.20 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Full Heal | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Sharpedo | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Hatenna | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Machoke | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Liepard | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Piers | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Pokemon Center Lady | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Potion | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Rotom Bike | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Centiskorch | Holo Rare | $0.18 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Arbok | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Malamar | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Nickit | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Bede | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Great Ball | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Sonia | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Kakuna | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Machop | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Galarian Linoone | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Hyper Potion | Uncommon | $0.17 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Kabu | Uncommon | $0.17 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Milo | Uncommon | $0.17 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Sonia | Uncommon | $0.17 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Hatenna | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Ekans | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Ekans | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Galarian Zigzagoon | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Purrloin | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Kabu | Uncommon | $0.16 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Inkay | Common | $0.15 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Hop | Uncommon | $0.15 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Milo | Uncommon | $0.15 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Team Yell Grunt | Uncommon | $0.15 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Malamar | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Poke Ball | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Rotom Phone | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Suspicious Food Tin | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Carvanha | Common | $0.13 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Galarian Obstagoon | Holo Rare | $0.13 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Full Heal | Common | $0.13 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Suspicious Food Tin | Uncommon | $0.13 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Team Yell Grunt | Uncommon | $0.13 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Rolycoly | Common | $0.12 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Great Ball | Uncommon | $0.12 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Sizzlipede | Common | $0.10 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |