A $17.32 Champion's Path pack returns $4.61 in expected card value on average — 27% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers Champion's Path, so these odds come from elitefourum.com, which discloses a 3,192-pack sample. Sources that do not state how many packs they counted are not used here, however confident they sound.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Champion's Path Premium Collection [Marnie] | $138.52 | $36.89 | 27% |
| Champion's Path Booster Pack | $19.54 | $4.61 | 24% |
| Champion's Path Elite Trainer Box | $216.12 | $41.50 | 19% |
Champion's Path Premium Collection [Marnie] · Champion's Path Booster Pack · Champion's Path Elite Trainer Box
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $19.54 | 24% |
| Elite Trainer Box | $24.01 | 19% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Secret Rare | 2.89% | n=3192 |
| Ultra Rare | 24.67% | n=3192 |
| Holo Rare | 71.43% | |
| Common | 500% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charizard V (Secret) | Secret Rare | $261.70 | 1 in 242 (0.41%) | $4193.94 |
| Charizard VMAX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $208.91 | 1 in 242 (0.41%) | $4193.94 |
| Gardevoir VMAX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $18.31 | 1 in 242 (0.41%) | $4193.94 |
| Drednaw VMAX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $7.16 | 1 in 242 (0.41%) | $4193.94 |
| Alcremie VMAX | Ultra Rare | $7.08 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1333.54 |
| Gardevoir VMAX | Ultra Rare | $4.69 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1333.54 |
| Gardevoir V (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $4.58 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1333.54 |
| Piers (Secret) | Secret Rare | $3.84 | 1 in 242 (0.41%) | $4193.94 |
| Lucario V | Ultra Rare | $3.74 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1333.54 |
| Kabu (Secret) | Secret Rare | $3.01 | 1 in 242 (0.41%) | $4193.94 |
| Venusaur V | Ultra Rare | $2.53 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1333.54 |
| Alcremie V | Ultra Rare | $2.51 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1333.54 |
| Drednaw VMAX | Ultra Rare | $2.32 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1333.54 |
| Gardevoir V | Ultra Rare | $1.91 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1333.54 |
| Incineroar V | Ultra Rare | $1.91 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1333.54 |
| Galarian Cursola V (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $1.62 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1333.54 |
| Wailord V | Ultra Rare | $1.55 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1333.54 |
| Hop (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $1.42 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1333.54 |
| Drednaw V (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $1.29 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1333.54 |
| Grapploct V (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $1.25 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1333.54 |
| Suspicious Food Tin (Secret) | Secret Rare | $1.13 | 1 in 242 (0.41%) | $4193.94 |
| Galarian Cursola V | Ultra Rare | $1.07 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1333.54 |
| Drednaw V | Ultra Rare | $0.97 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1333.54 |
| Eldegoss V | Ultra Rare | $0.93 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1333.54 |
| Grapploct V | Ultra Rare | $0.89 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1333.54 |
| Duraludon V | Ultra Rare | $0.83 | 1 in 77 (1.3%) | $1333.54 |
| Weedle | Common | $0.80 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Hattrem | Uncommon | $0.39 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Vulpix | Common | $0.38 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Marnie | Holo Rare | $0.38 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Marnie | Holo Rare | $0.38 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Machoke | Uncommon | $0.37 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Trubbish | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Machamp | Holo Rare | $0.36 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Lycanroc | Holo Rare | $0.36 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Absol | Uncommon | $0.36 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Piers | Uncommon | $0.36 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Swablu | Common | $0.35 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Weedle | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Machop | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Rockruff | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Scraggy | Common | $0.32 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Hop | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Pokemon Center Lady | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Rotom Phone | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Victini | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Zygarde | Holo Rare | $0.31 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Purrloin | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Zygarde | Holo Rare | $0.30 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Turffield Stadium | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Galarian Zigzagoon | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Altaria | Holo Rare | $0.29 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Carvanha | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Hattrem | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Hatterene | Holo Rare | $0.28 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Machamp | Holo Rare | $0.28 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Kakuna | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Beedrill | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Sharpedo | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Galarian Linoone | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Swablu | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Bede | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Rolycoly | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Arbok | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Rotom Bike | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Liepard | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Hyper Potion | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Pokemon Center Lady | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Professor's Research [Professor Magnolia] | Holo Rare | $0.25 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Poke Ball | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Vulpix | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Hatenna | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Rockruff | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Liepard | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Scraggy | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Potion | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Sonia | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Absol | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Piers | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Victini | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Centiskorch | Holo Rare | $0.21 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Hatterene | Holo Rare | $0.21 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Lycanroc | Holo Rare | $0.21 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Scrafty | Holo Rare | $0.21 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Rotom Phone | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Machop | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Machoke | Uncommon | $0.20 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Inkay | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Nickit | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Professor's Research [Professor Magnolia] | Holo Rare | $0.20 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Rotom Bike | Uncommon | $0.20 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Sharpedo | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Galarian Zigzagoon | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Galarian Linoone | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Trubbish | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Bede | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Beedrill | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Sizzlipede | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Malamar | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Altaria | Holo Rare | $0.18 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Full Heal | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Potion | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Team Yell Grunt | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Turffield Stadium | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Ekans | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Ekans | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Galarian Obstagoon | Holo Rare | $0.17 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Inkay | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Carvanha | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Sizzlipede | Common | $0.15 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Centiskorch | Holo Rare | $0.15 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Full Heal | Common | $0.15 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Hop | Uncommon | $0.15 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Milo | Uncommon | $0.15 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Poke Ball | Common | $0.15 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Kakuna | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Galarian Obstagoon | Holo Rare | $0.14 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Purrloin | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Great Ball | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Hyper Potion | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Arbok | Uncommon | $0.13 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Nickit | Common | $0.13 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Milo | Uncommon | $0.13 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Sonia | Uncommon | $0.13 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Suspicious Food Tin | Uncommon | $0.13 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Kabu | Uncommon | $0.12 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Kabu | Uncommon | $0.12 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Team Yell Grunt | Uncommon | $0.12 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Scrafty | Holo Rare | $0.11 | 1 in 14 (7.14%) | $261.79 |
| Hatenna | Common | $0.10 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Rolycoly | Common | $0.10 | 1 in 4 (23.81%) | $78.54 |
| Malamar | Uncommon | $0.10 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Great Ball | Uncommon | $0.10 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |
| Suspicious Food Tin | Uncommon | $0.09 | 1 in 8 (13.04%) | $143.37 |