
A $20.23 Detective Pikachu pack returns $7.09 in expected card value on average — 35% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers Detective Pikachu, so these odds come from elitefourum.com, which discloses a 240-pack sample. A stated count is the difference between a measured rate and a confident guess, so it is recorded here whenever a source gives one.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detective Pikachu Special Promo Booster Pack | $20.23 | $7.09 | 35% |
| Detective Pikachu Booster Pack | $24.33 | $7.09 | 29% |
| Detective Pikachu Tin [Charizard] | $189.84 | $21.28 | 11% |
| Detective Pikachu Tin [Mewtwo] | — | $21.28 | TBD |
Detective Pikachu Special Promo Booster Pack · Detective Pikachu Booster Pack · Detective Pikachu Tin [Charizard] · Detective Pikachu Tin [Mewtwo]
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $20.23 | 35% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Holo Rare | 37.08% | n=240 |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charizard | Holo Rare | $14.31 | 1 in 11 (9.27%) | $217.48 |
| Detective Pikachu | Rare | $13.92 | TBD | TBD |
| Ditto | Holo Rare | $11.56 | 1 in 11 (9.27%) | $217.48 |
| Mewtwo | Holo Rare | $10.89 | 1 in 11 (9.27%) | $217.48 |
| Greninja | Holo Rare | $9.03 | 1 in 11 (9.27%) | $217.48 |
| Arcanine | Rare | $3.44 | TBD | TBD |
| Mr. Mime | Rare | $3.31 | TBD | TBD |
| Machamp | Rare | $2.07 | TBD | TBD |
| Psyduck (Holo Common) | Common | $1.79 | TBD | TBD |
| Slaking | Rare | $1.33 | TBD | TBD |
| Bulbasaur (Holo Common) | Common | $1.18 | TBD | TBD |
| Ludicolo | Rare | $1.06 | TBD | TBD |
| Magikarp (Holo Common) | Common | $0.79 | TBD | TBD |
| Charmander (Holo Common) | Common | $0.71 | TBD | TBD |
| Jigglypuff (Holo Common) | Common | $0.63 | TBD | TBD |
| Snubbull (Holo Common) | Common | $0.39 | TBD | TBD |
| Lickitung (Holo Common) | Common | $0.31 | TBD | TBD |
| Morelull (Holo Common) | Common | $0.26 | TBD | TBD |