A $1250.00 EX Dragon pack returns $128.81 in expected card value on average — 10% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers EX Dragon, so these odds come from thepricedex.com, which discloses a disclosed sample. Sources that do not state how many packs they counted are not used here, however confident they sound.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| EX Dragon Booster Pack | $1250.00 | $128.81 | 10% |
| EX Dragon Booster Box | — | $4637.28 | TBD |
EX Dragon Booster Pack · EX Dragon Booster Box
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $1250.00 | 10% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Secret Rare | 3.33% | |
| Holo Rare | 13.33% | |
| Ultra Rare | 16.67% | |
| Common | 470% | |
| Uncommon | 200% | |
| Rare | 100% |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charizard | Secret Rare | $489.99 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $112612.61 |
| Dragonite ex | Ultra Rare | $487.34 | 1 in 54 (1.85%) | $67486.50 |
| Rayquaza ex | Ultra Rare | $460.73 | 1 in 54 (1.85%) | $67486.50 |
| Charmander | Secret Rare | $327.19 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $112612.61 |
| Latios ex | Ultra Rare | $277.55 | 1 in 54 (1.85%) | $67486.50 |
| Ampharos ex | Ultra Rare | $236.49 | 1 in 54 (1.85%) | $67486.50 |
| Latias ex | Ultra Rare | $203.10 | 1 in 54 (1.85%) | $67486.50 |
| Charmeleon | Secret Rare | $118.18 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $112612.61 |
| Muk ex | Ultra Rare | $103.25 | 1 in 54 (1.85%) | $67486.50 |
| Kingdra ex | Ultra Rare | $85.00 | 1 in 54 (1.85%) | $67486.50 |
| Magcargo ex | Ultra Rare | $84.44 | 1 in 54 (1.85%) | $67486.50 |
| Golem ex | Ultra Rare | $79.56 | 1 in 54 (1.85%) | $67486.50 |
| Salamence - 10/97 | Holo Rare | $326.99 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | TBD |
| Absol | Holo Rare | $169.99 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | TBD |
| Minun | Holo Rare | $105.78 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | TBD |
| Gyarados | Uncommon | $101.78 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Absol | Holo Rare | $101.41 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | TBD |
| Houndoom | Uncommon | $86.12 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Torkoal | Holo Rare | $86.03 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | TBD |
| Dratini | Uncommon | $85.00 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Mudkip | Common | $83.00 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Plusle | Holo Rare | $82.77 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | TBD |
| Shuppet | Uncommon | $79.99 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Salamence - 10/97 | Holo Rare | $69.99 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | TBD |
| Flygon - 4/97 | Holo Rare | $69.24 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | TBD |
| Shedinja | Holo Rare | $65.40 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | TBD |
| Dragonair - 14/97 | Rare | $63.75 | 1 in 10 (10%) | TBD |
| Altaria | Holo Rare | $62.55 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | TBD |
| Magikarp | Common | $57.83 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Plusle | Holo Rare | $54.25 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | TBD |
| Flygon - 4/97 | Holo Rare | $53.47 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | TBD |
| Shedinja | Holo Rare | $50.29 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | TBD |
| Minun | Holo Rare | $44.56 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | TBD |
| Golem | Holo Rare | $43.81 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | TBD |
| Grimer | Common | $42.10 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Skarmory | Rare | $40.76 | 1 in 10 (10%) | TBD |
| Magneton - 17/97 | Rare | $39.99 | 1 in 10 (10%) | TBD |
| Corphish - 54/97 | Common | $38.90 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Torkoal | Holo Rare | $38.50 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | TBD |
| Salamence - 19/97 | Rare | $37.76 | 1 in 10 (10%) | TBD |
| Torchic | Common | $36.25 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Treecko | Common | $35.47 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Trapinch - 78/97 | Common | $34.06 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Horsea - 58/97 | Common | $30.99 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Magnemite - 61/97 | Common | $29.99 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Shuppet | Uncommon | $28.54 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Flygon - 15/97 | Rare | $28.53 | 1 in 10 (10%) | TBD |
| Magneton - 35/97 | Uncommon | $28.53 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Numel | Common | $28.49 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Altaria | Holo Rare | $28.06 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | TBD |
| Snorunt | Uncommon | $25.56 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| TV Reporter | Uncommon | $25.05 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Vibrava - 46/97 | Uncommon | $24.60 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Marshtomp | Uncommon | $23.44 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Grovyle | Uncommon | $23.19 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Golem | Holo Rare | $23.14 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | TBD |
| Whiscash | Uncommon | $22.90 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Roselia | Holo Rare | $22.00 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | TBD |
| Mareep | Common | $20.35 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Forretress | Uncommon | $20.00 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Shelgon - 41/97 | Uncommon | $20.00 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Ninjask - 18/97 | Rare | $19.82 | 1 in 10 (10%) | TBD |
| Gyarados | Uncommon | $19.71 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Grumpig | Holo Rare | $18.22 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | TBD |
| Magnemite - 63/97 | Common | $18.09 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Houndour | Common | $17.72 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Seadra - 39/97 | Uncommon | $17.55 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Vibrava - 22/97 | Rare | $17.50 | 1 in 10 (10%) | TBD |
| Mr. Briney's Compassion | Uncommon | $17.48 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Flaaffy | Uncommon | $16.84 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Grumpig | Holo Rare | $16.43 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | TBD |
| Roselia | Holo Rare | $15.57 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | TBD |
| Swellow | Uncommon | $14.94 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Slugma | Common | $13.86 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Bagon - 23/97 | Uncommon | $13.11 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Bagon - 49/97 | Common | $12.87 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Seadra - 40/97 | Uncommon | $12.87 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Swablu | Common | $12.73 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Bagon - 50/97 | Common | $12.67 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Magnemite - 62/97 | Common | $12.59 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Graveler - 29/97 | Uncommon | $12.29 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Numel - 69/97 | Common | $12.22 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Corphish - 52/97 | Common | $12.19 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Houndoom | Uncommon | $12.03 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Dratini | Uncommon | $12.00 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Horsea - 33/97 | Uncommon | $11.85 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Spoink - 74/97 | Common | $11.76 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Graveler - 30/97 | Uncommon | $11.66 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Crawdaunt - 3/97 | Holo Rare | $11.28 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | TBD |
| Dragonair - 14/97 | Rare | $11.10 | 1 in 10 (10%) | TBD |
| Crawdaunt - 13/97 | Rare | $10.49 | 1 in 10 (10%) | TBD |
| Shelgon - 20/97 | Rare | $10.42 | 1 in 10 (10%) | TBD |
| Taillow | Common | $10.37 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Vibrava - 47/97 | Uncommon | $10.25 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Crawdaunt - 3/97 | Holo Rare | $10.17 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | TBD |
| Nincada - 68/97 | Common | $9.97 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Spoink - 73/97 | Common | $9.97 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Trapinch - 79/97 | Common | $9.86 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Ninjask - 38/97 | Uncommon | $9.80 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Girafarig | Rare | $9.71 | 1 in 10 (10%) | TBD |
| Barboach | Common | $9.34 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Combusken | Uncommon | $8.15 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Camerupt | Uncommon | $8.13 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Geodude - 56/97 | Common | $8.00 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Mr. Briney's Compassion | Uncommon | $7.94 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Geodude - 55/97 | Common | $7.92 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Mudkip | Common | $7.80 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Corphish - 53/97 | Common | $7.65 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Whiscash | Uncommon | $7.64 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Shelgon - 42/97 | Uncommon | $7.13 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Meditite | Uncommon | $7.04 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Wurmple | Common | $6.39 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Houndour | Common | $6.33 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Nincada - 66/97 | Common | $5.22 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Pineco | Common | $5.09 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Magikarp | Common | $4.99 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Flaaffy | Uncommon | $4.85 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Nincada - 67/97 | Common | $4.34 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Low Pressure System | Uncommon | $4.29 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Shelgon - 41/97 | Uncommon | $3.92 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Snorunt | Uncommon | $3.80 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Horsea - 33/97 | Uncommon | $3.77 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Energy Recycle System | Uncommon | $3.31 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Salamence - 19/97 | Rare | $3.24 | 1 in 10 (10%) | TBD |
| Grovyle | Uncommon | $3.19 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Marshtomp | Uncommon | $2.98 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Buffer Piece | Uncommon | $2.96 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| High Pressure System | Uncommon | $2.89 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Mareep | Common | $2.85 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Balloon Berry | Uncommon | $2.75 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Trapinch - 78/97 | Common | $2.65 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Skarmory | Rare | $2.53 | 1 in 10 (10%) | TBD |
| Grimer | Common | $2.51 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Barboach | Common | $2.43 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Bagon - 23/97 | Uncommon | $2.29 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Graveler - 30/97 | Uncommon | $2.10 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Seadra - 39/97 | Uncommon | $2.05 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Shelgon - 42/97 | Uncommon | $1.97 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Swablu | Common | $1.96 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Flygon - 15/97 | Rare | $1.95 | 1 in 10 (10%) | TBD |
| Magneton - 17/97 | Rare | $1.95 | 1 in 10 (10%) | TBD |
| Graveler - 29/97 | Uncommon | $1.87 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Corphish - 54/97 | Common | $1.78 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Swellow | Uncommon | $1.71 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Forretress | Uncommon | $1.69 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Girafarig | Rare | $1.64 | 1 in 10 (10%) | TBD |
| Numel - 69/97 | Common | $1.64 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Vibrava - 46/97 | Uncommon | $1.59 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Vibrava - 22/97 | Rare | $1.56 | 1 in 10 (10%) | TBD |
| Shelgon - 20/97 | Rare | $1.44 | 1 in 10 (10%) | TBD |
| Seadra - 40/97 | Uncommon | $1.38 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Combusken | Uncommon | $1.37 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Geodude - 55/97 | Common | $1.37 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Magnemite - 62/97 | Common | $1.28 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Spoink - 74/97 | Common | $1.25 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Treecko | Common | $1.20 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Torchic | Common | $1.14 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Magnemite - 63/97 | Common | $1.13 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Crawdaunt - 13/97 | Rare | $1.09 | 1 in 10 (10%) | TBD |
| Magnemite - 61/97 | Common | $1.09 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Meditite | Uncommon | $1.09 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Ninjask - 18/97 | Rare | $1.08 | 1 in 10 (10%) | TBD |
| Bagon - 50/97 | Common | $1.05 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Numel | Common | $0.93 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Geodude - 56/97 | Common | $0.90 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Wurmple | Common | $0.80 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Ninjask - 38/97 | Uncommon | $0.79 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Pineco | Common | $0.77 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Nincada - 68/97 | Common | $0.73 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Corphish - 53/97 | Common | $0.65 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Nincada - 67/97 | Common | $0.65 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Trapinch - 79/97 | Common | $0.65 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Horsea - 58/97 | Common | $0.63 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Vibrava - 47/97 | Uncommon | $0.63 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Taillow | Common | $0.62 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| High Pressure System | Uncommon | $0.60 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Slugma | Common | $0.60 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Buffer Piece | Uncommon | $0.58 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Magneton - 35/97 | Uncommon | $0.56 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Camerupt | Uncommon | $0.53 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Bagon - 49/97 | Common | $0.51 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Spoink - 73/97 | Common | $0.51 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Nincada - 66/97 | Common | $0.49 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| TV Reporter | Uncommon | $0.43 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Balloon Berry | Uncommon | $0.42 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Low Pressure System | Uncommon | $0.42 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |
| Corphish - 52/97 | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 7 (14.24%) | TBD |
| Energy Recycle System | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 17 (6.06%) | TBD |