A $1000.00 EX Emerald pack returns $147.11 in expected card value on average — 15% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers EX Emerald, so these odds come from elitefourum.com, which discloses a 252-pack sample. Sources that do not state how many packs they counted are not used here, however confident they sound.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerald Booster Pack | $1000.00 | $147.11 | 15% |
| Emerald Booster Box | — | $5296.13 | TBD |
Emerald Booster Pack · Emerald Booster Box
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $1000.00 | 15% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Ultra Rare | 8.33% | n=252 |
| Holo Rare | 25% | |
| Rare | 66.67% | |
| Common | 500% | |
| Uncommon | 200% |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milotic ex | Ultra Rare | $799.99 | 1 in 132 (0.76%) | $132052.82 |
| Regice ex | Ultra Rare | $350.00 | 1 in 132 (0.76%) | $132052.82 |
| Altaria ex | Ultra Rare | $299.99 | 1 in 132 (0.76%) | $132052.82 |
| Regice ex | Ultra Rare | $299.99 | 1 in 132 (0.76%) | $132052.82 |
| Regirock ex | Ultra Rare | $179.99 | 1 in 132 (0.76%) | $132052.82 |
| Registeel ex | Ultra Rare | $165.11 | 1 in 132 (0.76%) | $132052.82 |
| Cacturne ex | Ultra Rare | $165.00 | 1 in 132 (0.76%) | $132052.82 |
| Deoxys ex (Speed Forme) | Ultra Rare | $164.89 | 1 in 132 (0.76%) | $132052.82 |
| Raichu ex | Ultra Rare | $130.00 | 1 in 132 (0.76%) | $132052.82 |
| Regirock ex | Ultra Rare | $130.00 | 1 in 132 (0.76%) | $132052.82 |
| Farfetch'd (Secret Rare) | Secret Rare | $124.95 | TBD | TBD |
| Dusclops ex | Ultra Rare | $110.00 | 1 in 132 (0.76%) | $132052.82 |
| Registeel ex | Ultra Rare | $110.00 | 1 in 132 (0.76%) | $132052.82 |
| Camerupt ex | Ultra Rare | $100.00 | 1 in 132 (0.76%) | $132052.82 |
| Farfetch'd (Secret Rare) | Secret Rare | $80.00 | TBD | TBD |
| Camerupt ex | Ultra Rare | $69.99 | 1 in 132 (0.76%) | $132052.82 |
| Medicham ex | Ultra Rare | $42.49 | 1 in 132 (0.76%) | $132052.82 |
| Medicham ex | Ultra Rare | $20.00 | 1 in 132 (0.76%) | $132052.82 |
| Cacturne ex | Ultra Rare | $15.00 | 1 in 132 (0.76%) | $132052.82 |
| Milotic ex | Ultra Rare | — | 1 in 132 (0.76%) | $132052.82 |
| Raichu ex | Ultra Rare | — | 1 in 132 (0.76%) | $132052.82 |
| Rayquaza | Holo Rare | $799.99 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Pikachu | Common | $599.99 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Rayquaza | Holo Rare | $431.32 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Groudon - 014/106 | Rare | $279.99 | 1 in 21 (4.76%) | $20998.95 |
| Kyogre - 006/106 | Holo Rare | $219.00 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Deoxys (Speed Forme) | Holo Rare | $213.89 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Groudon - 005/106 | Holo Rare | $211.75 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Sceptile | Holo Rare | $200.00 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Blaziken | Holo Rare | $185.00 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Pichu | Common | $162.49 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Torchic | Common | $155.49 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Ninetales | Uncommon | $151.49 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Deoxys (Speed Forme) | Holo Rare | $150.00 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Gardevoir | Holo Rare | $148.99 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Mudkip | Common | $132.73 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Gardevoir | Holo Rare | $125.88 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Grovyle | Uncommon | $125.00 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Marshtomp | Uncommon | $125.00 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Swampert | Holo Rare | $121.90 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Deoxys (Speed Forme) | Holo Rare | $105.81 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Treecko | Common | $101.66 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Kyogre - 015/106 | Rare | $100.00 | 1 in 21 (4.76%) | $20998.95 |
| Plusle | Uncommon | $100.00 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Rare Candy | Uncommon | $100.00 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Linoone | Uncommon | $92.00 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Zigzagoon | Common | $85.99 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Swampert | Holo Rare | $82.38 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Minun | Uncommon | $80.00 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Vulpix | Common | $76.48 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Breloom | Uncommon | $75.00 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Electrode | Uncommon | $70.65 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Kyogre - 006/106 | Holo Rare | $69.29 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Groudon - 005/106 | Holo Rare | $68.39 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Blaziken | Holo Rare | $59.61 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Seviper | Rare | $56.93 | 1 in 21 (4.76%) | $20998.95 |
| Feebas - 050/106 | Common | $53.33 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Rayquaza | Holo Rare | $49.99 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Voltorb | Common | $49.95 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Wally's Training | Uncommon | $49.47 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Zangoose | Rare | $47.00 | 1 in 21 (4.76%) | $20998.95 |
| Numel - 057/106 | Common | $45.90 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Duskull | Common | $45.00 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Sceptile | Holo Rare | $44.29 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Manectric - 007/106 | Holo Rare | $43.11 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Claydol | Uncommon | $42.99 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Kirlia | Uncommon | $41.32 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Ralts | Common | $40.49 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Feebas - 049/106 | Common | $40.00 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Relicanth | Rare | $39.99 | 1 in 21 (4.76%) | $20998.95 |
| Milotic | Holo Rare | $35.76 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Rhyhorn | Common | $35.64 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Battle Frontier | Uncommon | $35.55 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Spoink - 066/106 | Common | $35.32 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Darkness Energy (Special) | Rare | $34.99 | 1 in 21 (4.76%) | $20998.95 |
| Illumise | Uncommon | $34.99 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Chimecho | Rare | $34.25 | 1 in 21 (4.76%) | $20998.95 |
| Swablu | Common | $33.91 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Shroomish | Common | $32.99 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Gulpin | Common | $31.00 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Grumpig - 030/106 | Uncommon | $30.00 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Larvitar | Common | $30.00 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Swellow | Uncommon | $30.00 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Numel - 058/106 | Common | $29.99 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Manectric - 016/106 | Rare | $29.08 | 1 in 21 (4.76%) | $20998.95 |
| Rhydon | Rare | $28.99 | 1 in 21 (4.76%) | $20998.95 |
| Volbeat | Uncommon | $28.87 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Double Rainbow Energy | Rare | $28.07 | 1 in 21 (4.76%) | $20998.95 |
| Milotic | Holo Rare | $28.03 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Camerupt | Uncommon | $27.48 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Exploud | Holo Rare | $27.16 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Hariyama | Uncommon | $26.99 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Glalie | Rare | $26.73 | 1 in 21 (4.76%) | $20998.95 |
| Exploud | Holo Rare | $26.50 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Loudred | Uncommon | $26.32 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Snorunt | Common | $25.98 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Luvdisc | Common | $25.50 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Mr. Stone's Project | Uncommon | $25.21 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Combusken | Uncommon | $25.00 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Swalot | Uncommon | $25.00 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Whismur | Common | $25.00 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Dodrio | Uncommon | $24.99 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Spoink - 065/106 | Common | $24.99 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Groudon - 005/106 | Holo Rare | $24.66 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Kyogre - 015/106 | Rare | $21.71 | 1 in 21 (4.76%) | $20998.95 |
| Psychic Energy | Holo Rare | $21.71 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Multi Energy | Rare | $21.56 | 1 in 21 (4.76%) | $20998.95 |
| Lightning Energy | Holo Rare | $20.74 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Electrike - 048/106 | Common | $20.59 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Fire Energy | Holo Rare | $20.38 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Scott | Uncommon | $20.20 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Lanette's Net Search | Uncommon | $20.18 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Linoone | Uncommon | $19.99 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Psychic Energy | Holo Rare | $19.99 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Grass Energy | Holo Rare | $19.67 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Grumpig - 029/106 | Uncommon | $19.13 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Electrike - 047/106 | Common | $19.00 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Grass Energy | Holo Rare | $18.33 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Makuhita | Common | $18.30 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Groudon - 014/106 | Rare | $18.11 | 1 in 21 (4.76%) | $20998.95 |
| Fighting Energy | Holo Rare | $17.94 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Baltoy | Common | $17.91 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Exploud | Holo Rare | $17.90 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Fire Energy | Holo Rare | $17.60 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Water Energy | Holo Rare | $17.49 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Water Energy | Holo Rare | $16.78 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Manectric - 007/106 | Holo Rare | $16.18 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Claydol | Uncommon | $16.15 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Pikachu | Common | $16.09 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Fighting Energy | Holo Rare | $14.99 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Nosepass | Rare | $14.99 | 1 in 21 (4.76%) | $20998.95 |
| Doduo | Common | $14.80 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Milotic | Holo Rare | $14.49 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Lightning Energy | Holo Rare | $13.95 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Metal Energy (Special) | Rare | $11.48 | 1 in 21 (4.76%) | $20998.95 |
| Meditite | Common | $11.18 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Taillow | Common | $11.08 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Oran Berry | Uncommon | $10.42 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Mudkip | Common | $9.93 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Ninetales | Uncommon | $9.92 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Manectric - 007/106 | Holo Rare | $9.77 | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Professor Birch | Uncommon | $9.74 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Double Rainbow Energy | Rare | $8.66 | 1 in 21 (4.76%) | $20998.95 |
| Lum Berry | Uncommon | $8.42 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Double Full Heal | Uncommon | $8.20 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Cacnea | Common | $8.19 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Zigzagoon | Common | $7.79 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Pichu | Common | $7.63 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Rare Candy | Uncommon | $7.11 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Minun | Uncommon | $6.99 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Scott | Uncommon | $5.56 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Pokenav | Uncommon | $4.98 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Plusle | Uncommon | $4.91 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Battle Frontier | Uncommon | $4.88 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Zangoose | Rare | $4.77 | 1 in 21 (4.76%) | $20998.95 |
| Baltoy | Common | $4.56 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Mr. Stone's Project | Uncommon | $4.12 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Kirlia | Uncommon | $3.59 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Lanette's Net Search | Uncommon | $3.22 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Relicanth | Rare | $2.57 | 1 in 21 (4.76%) | $20998.95 |
| Seviper | Rare | $2.38 | 1 in 21 (4.76%) | $20998.95 |
| Illumise | Uncommon | $2.32 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Manectric - 016/106 | Rare | $2.31 | 1 in 21 (4.76%) | $20998.95 |
| Multi Energy | Rare | $2.19 | 1 in 21 (4.76%) | $20998.95 |
| Volbeat | Uncommon | $2.16 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Swablu | Common | $2.07 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Chimecho | Rare | $2.02 | 1 in 21 (4.76%) | $20998.95 |
| Feebas - 049/106 | Common | $1.97 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Breloom | Uncommon | $1.85 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Grovyle | Uncommon | $1.83 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Rhydon | Rare | $1.76 | 1 in 21 (4.76%) | $20998.95 |
| Darkness Energy (Special) | Rare | $1.75 | 1 in 21 (4.76%) | $20998.95 |
| Grumpig - 030/106 | Uncommon | $1.64 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Ralts | Common | $1.64 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Marshtomp | Uncommon | $1.62 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Dodrio | Uncommon | $1.54 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Swellow | Uncommon | $1.52 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Electrode | Uncommon | $1.51 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Loudred | Uncommon | $1.51 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Nosepass | Rare | $1.51 | 1 in 21 (4.76%) | $20998.95 |
| Vulpix | Common | $1.49 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Swalot | Uncommon | $1.47 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Hariyama | Uncommon | $1.30 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Glalie | Rare | $1.29 | 1 in 21 (4.76%) | $20998.95 |
| Metal Energy (Special) | Rare | $1.27 | 1 in 21 (4.76%) | $20998.95 |
| Grumpig - 029/106 | Uncommon | $1.23 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Numel - 057/106 | Common | $1.23 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Luvdisc | Common | $1.22 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Feebas - 050/106 | Common | $1.17 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Larvitar | Common | $1.09 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Treecko | Common | $1.08 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Shroomish | Common | $1.03 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Combusken | Uncommon | $0.94 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Lum Berry | Uncommon | $0.91 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Torchic | Common | $0.91 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Camerupt | Uncommon | $0.90 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Electrike - 048/106 | Common | $0.86 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Wally's Training | Uncommon | $0.85 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Duskull | Common | $0.79 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Gulpin | Common | $0.78 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Numel - 058/106 | Common | $0.73 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Makuhita | Common | $0.72 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Meditite | Common | $0.72 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Voltorb | Common | $0.72 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Spoink - 065/106 | Common | $0.69 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Snorunt | Common | $0.66 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Cacnea | Common | $0.65 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Spoink - 066/106 | Common | $0.65 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Double Full Heal | Uncommon | $0.59 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Whismur | Common | $0.57 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Taillow | Common | $0.54 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Oran Berry | Uncommon | $0.53 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Doduo | Common | $0.51 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Rhyhorn | Common | $0.49 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Electrike - 047/106 | Common | $0.44 | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |
| Pokenav | Uncommon | $0.44 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Professor Birch | Uncommon | $0.42 | 1 in 16 (6.25%) | $16000.00 |
| Gardevoir | Holo Rare | — | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Kyogre - 006/106 | Holo Rare | — | 1 in 68 (1.47%) | $68000.00 |
| Meditite | Common | — | 1 in 6 (15.63%) | $6400.00 |