A $337.65 Fossil pack returns $64.45 in expected card value on average — 19% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers Fossil, so these odds come from loosepacks.com, which discloses a 360-pack sample. Sources that do not state how many packs they counted are not used here, however confident they sound.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fossil Booster Pack [Unlimited Edition] | $337.65 | $64.45 | 19% |
| Fossil Booster Pack [1st Edition] | $672.19 | $64.45 | 10% |
| Pokemon Fossil [Unlimited Edition] Booster Box | — | $2320.03 | TBD |
| Pokemon Fossil [1st Edition] Booster Box | — | $2320.03 | TBD |
Fossil Booster Pack [Unlimited Edition] · Fossil Booster Pack [1st Edition] · Pokemon Fossil [Unlimited Edition] Booster Box · Pokemon Fossil [1st Edition] Booster Box
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $337.65 | 19% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Holo Rare | 33.33% | n=360 |
| Rare | 66.67% | |
| Common | 700% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dragonite (4) | Holo Rare | $470.17 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Gengar (5) | Holo Rare | $458.16 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Gengar (5) | Holo Rare | $214.44 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Lapras (10) | Holo Rare | $210.44 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Articuno (2) | Holo Rare | $201.27 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Moltres (12) | Holo Rare | $197.91 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Dragonite (4) | Holo Rare | $190.10 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Zapdos (15) | Holo Rare | $172.40 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Haunter (6) | Holo Rare | $169.82 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Raichu (14) | Holo Rare | $133.79 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Ditto (3) | Holo Rare | $131.99 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Kabutops (9) | Holo Rare | $117.79 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Gengar (20) | Rare | $116.42 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Dragonite (19) | Rare | $98.66 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Hypno (8) | Holo Rare | $96.07 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Hitmonlee (7) | Holo Rare | $95.34 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Aerodactyl (1) | Holo Rare | $92.82 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Articuno (2) | Holo Rare | $80.50 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Muk (13) | Holo Rare | $65.53 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Magneton (11) | Holo Rare | $63.29 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Moltres (12) | Holo Rare | $62.75 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Gengar (20) | Rare | $52.50 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Haunter (6) | Holo Rare | $51.67 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Ditto (3) | Holo Rare | $51.51 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Raichu (14) | Holo Rare | $47.65 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Zapdos (15) | Holo Rare | $45.32 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Hypno (8) | Holo Rare | $42.98 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Hitmonlee (7) | Holo Rare | $41.88 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Dragonite (19) | Rare | $40.74 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Kabutops (9) | Holo Rare | $39.43 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Aerodactyl (1) | Holo Rare | $36.92 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Articuno (17) | Rare | $34.00 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Moltres (27) | Rare | $30.61 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Lapras (10) | Holo Rare | $29.80 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Lapras (25) | Rare | $28.88 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Zapdos (30) | Rare | $28.27 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Haunter (21) | Rare | $25.98 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Raichu (29) | Rare | $24.75 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Aerodactyl (16) | Rare | $23.78 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Kabutops (24) | Rare | $23.71 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Ditto (18) | Rare | $23.07 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Magneton (11) | Holo Rare | $20.64 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Hypno (23) | Rare | $17.33 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Muk (28) | Rare | $15.82 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Kabuto | Common | $15.20 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Hitmonlee (22) | Rare | $14.72 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Ditto (18) | Rare | $14.07 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Magneton (26) | Rare | $13.46 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Psyduck | Common | $13.43 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Haunter (21) | Rare | $11.86 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Muk (13) | Holo Rare | $11.09 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Moltres (27) | Rare | $10.61 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Slowbro | Uncommon | $10.36 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Articuno (17) | Rare | $9.90 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Zapdos (30) | Rare | $9.87 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Lapras (25) | Rare | $9.27 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Mr. Fuji | Uncommon | $9.02 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Aerodactyl (16) | Rare | $8.44 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Raichu (29) | Rare | $7.71 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Gastly | Uncommon | $7.36 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Kabutops (24) | Rare | $7.28 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Magneton (26) | Rare | $7.27 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Golem | Uncommon | $6.88 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Slowpoke | Common | $6.76 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Golduck | Uncommon | $6.61 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Gambler | Common | $6.54 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Golbat | Uncommon | $6.26 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Hitmonlee (22) | Rare | $6.04 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Sandslash | Uncommon | $5.98 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Magmar | Uncommon | $5.60 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Omastar | Uncommon | $5.60 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Arbok | Uncommon | $5.57 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Hypno (23) | Rare | $5.53 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Tentacruel | Uncommon | $5.35 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Seadra | Uncommon | $5.29 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Cloyster | Uncommon | $4.93 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Muk (28) | Rare | $4.55 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Weezing | Uncommon | $4.40 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Graveler | Uncommon | $4.34 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Recycle | Common | $3.45 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Kingler | Uncommon | $3.34 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Geodude | Common | $3.31 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Grimer | Common | $2.93 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Omanyte | Common | $2.93 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Horsea | Common | $2.67 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Golem | Uncommon | $2.26 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Zubat | Common | $2.19 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Slowbro | Uncommon | $2.05 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Golduck | Uncommon | $2.03 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Krabby | Common | $1.99 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Psyduck | Common | $1.87 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Shellder | Common | $1.87 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Weezing | Uncommon | $1.68 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Ekans | Common | $1.60 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Gastly | Uncommon | $1.52 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Tentacool | Common | $1.47 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Omastar | Uncommon | $1.41 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Kabuto | Common | $1.35 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Arbok | Uncommon | $1.32 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Sandslash | Uncommon | $1.25 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Mysterious Fossil | Common | $1.22 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Slowpoke | Common | $1.20 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Kingler | Uncommon | $1.19 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Cloyster | Uncommon | $1.09 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Magmar | Uncommon | $1.08 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Mr. Fuji | Uncommon | $1.02 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Energy Search | Common | $0.97 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Omanyte | Common | $0.95 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Graveler | Uncommon | $0.91 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Seadra | Uncommon | $0.91 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Tentacruel | Uncommon | $0.89 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Golbat | Uncommon | $0.77 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Grimer | Common | $0.59 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Tentacool | Common | $0.54 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Ekans | Common | $0.53 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Zubat | Common | $0.52 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Horsea | Common | $0.50 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Shellder | Common | $0.50 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Geodude | Common | $0.49 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Krabby | Common | $0.48 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Recycle | Common | $0.43 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Mysterious Fossil | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Gambler | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Energy Search | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |