
A $339.99 Fossil pack returns $64.71 in expected card value on average — 19% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers Fossil, so these odds come from loosepacks.com, which discloses a 360-pack sample. A stated count is the difference between a measured rate and a confident guess, so it is recorded here whenever a source gives one.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fossil Booster Pack [Unlimited Edition] | $339.99 | $64.71 | 19% |
| Fossil Booster Pack [1st Edition] | $671.35 | $64.71 | 10% |
| Pokemon Fossil [Unlimited Edition] Booster Box | — | $2329.70 | TBD |
| Pokemon Fossil [1st Edition] Booster Box | — | $2329.70 | TBD |
Fossil Booster Pack [Unlimited Edition] · Fossil Booster Pack [1st Edition] · Pokemon Fossil [Unlimited Edition] Booster Box · Pokemon Fossil [1st Edition] Booster Box
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $339.99 | 19% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Holo Rare | 33.33% | n=360 |
| Rare | 66.67% | |
| Common | 700% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gengar (5) | Holo Rare | $725.00 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Dragonite (4) | Holo Rare | $629.05 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Zapdos (15) | Holo Rare | $246.79 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Lapras (10) | Holo Rare | $244.14 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Gengar (5) | Holo Rare | $219.04 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Raichu (14) | Holo Rare | $208.87 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Articuno (2) | Holo Rare | $197.08 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Moltres (12) | Holo Rare | $196.26 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Dragonite (4) | Holo Rare | $185.85 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Haunter (6) | Holo Rare | $170.99 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Ditto (3) | Holo Rare | $146.26 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Gengar (20) | Rare | $119.53 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Kabutops (9) | Holo Rare | $115.84 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Hitmonlee (7) | Holo Rare | $107.58 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Dragonite (19) | Rare | $103.83 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Hypno (8) | Holo Rare | $102.36 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Aerodactyl (1) | Holo Rare | $96.24 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Articuno (2) | Holo Rare | $73.08 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Moltres (12) | Holo Rare | $68.42 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Magneton (11) | Holo Rare | $68.35 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Muk (13) | Holo Rare | $64.56 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Raichu (14) | Holo Rare | $53.55 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Haunter (6) | Holo Rare | $52.32 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Ditto (3) | Holo Rare | $49.76 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Gengar (20) | Rare | $45.35 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Zapdos (15) | Holo Rare | $41.37 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Kabutops (9) | Holo Rare | $41.30 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Hitmonlee (7) | Holo Rare | $40.10 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Dragonite (19) | Rare | $40.04 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Aerodactyl (1) | Holo Rare | $38.18 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Hypno (8) | Holo Rare | $37.99 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Lapras (10) | Holo Rare | $37.57 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Articuno (17) | Rare | $37.24 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Moltres (27) | Rare | $33.34 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Zapdos (30) | Rare | $31.40 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Lapras (25) | Rare | $28.60 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Haunter (21) | Rare | $28.08 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Raichu (29) | Rare | $25.60 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Aerodactyl (16) | Rare | $25.55 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Ditto (18) | Rare | $24.91 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Kabutops (24) | Rare | $22.66 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Magneton (11) | Holo Rare | $21.00 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Kabuto | Common | $19.32 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Hypno (23) | Rare | $17.45 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Muk (28) | Rare | $16.26 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Hitmonlee (22) | Rare | $15.48 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Psyduck | Common | $15.01 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Magneton (26) | Rare | $13.97 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Ditto (18) | Rare | $13.62 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Muk (13) | Holo Rare | $11.18 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $14386.59 |
| Moltres (27) | Rare | $11.08 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Articuno (17) | Rare | $10.80 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Zapdos (30) | Rare | $9.81 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Lapras (25) | Rare | $9.57 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Haunter (21) | Rare | $9.50 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Slowbro | Uncommon | $9.25 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Aerodactyl (16) | Rare | $8.48 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Raichu (29) | Rare | $8.26 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Kabutops (24) | Rare | $8.11 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Mr. Fuji | Uncommon | $7.95 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Hitmonlee (22) | Rare | $7.29 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Magneton (26) | Rare | $7.28 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Gambler | Common | $7.12 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Gastly | Uncommon | $6.92 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Golem | Uncommon | $6.40 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Golduck | Uncommon | $6.20 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Golbat | Uncommon | $6.16 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Slowpoke | Common | $6.04 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Hypno (23) | Rare | $5.94 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Sandslash | Uncommon | $5.86 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Magmar | Uncommon | $5.74 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Omastar | Uncommon | $5.47 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Muk (28) | Rare | $4.79 | 1 in 22 (4.44%) | TBD |
| Arbok | Uncommon | $4.63 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Seadra | Uncommon | $4.54 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Tentacruel | Uncommon | $4.47 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Cloyster | Uncommon | $4.39 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Graveler | Uncommon | $4.20 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Recycle | Common | $3.94 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Weezing | Uncommon | $3.69 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Kingler | Uncommon | $3.26 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Geodude | Common | $2.86 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Grimer | Common | $2.68 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Omanyte | Common | $2.36 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Psyduck | Common | $2.27 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Horsea | Common | $2.24 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Zubat | Common | $2.24 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Slowbro | Uncommon | $2.18 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Krabby | Common | $2.12 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Golem | Uncommon | $2.01 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Weezing | Uncommon | $1.95 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Gastly | Uncommon | $1.94 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Arbok | Uncommon | $1.82 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Shellder | Common | $1.79 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Ekans | Common | $1.74 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Golduck | Uncommon | $1.40 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Tentacool | Common | $1.39 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Kabuto | Common | $1.38 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Cloyster | Uncommon | $1.31 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Omastar | Uncommon | $1.29 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Tentacruel | Uncommon | $1.21 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Sandslash | Uncommon | $1.16 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Mysterious Fossil | Common | $1.15 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Mr. Fuji | Uncommon | $1.14 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Magmar | Uncommon | $1.12 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Seadra | Uncommon | $1.10 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Energy Search | Common | $1.08 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Slowpoke | Common | $0.95 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Kingler | Uncommon | $0.89 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Graveler | Uncommon | $0.84 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Omanyte | Common | $0.83 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Golbat | Uncommon | $0.66 | 1 in 5 (18.75%) | TBD |
| Krabby | Common | $0.59 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Grimer | Common | $0.56 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Tentacool | Common | $0.49 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Shellder | Common | $0.45 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Zubat | Common | $0.45 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Ekans | Common | $0.44 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Recycle | Common | $0.43 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Geodude | Common | $0.42 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Gambler | Common | $0.40 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Horsea | Common | $0.39 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Energy Search | Common | $0.38 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |
| Mysterious Fossil | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 2 (43.75%) | TBD |