A $466.66 HeartGold SoulSilver pack returns $129.32 in expected card value on average — 28% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers HeartGold SoulSilver, so these odds come from thepricedex.com, which discloses a disclosed sample. Sources that do not state how many packs they counted are not used here, however confident they sound.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| HeartGold SoulSilver Booster Pack | $466.66 | $129.32 | 28% |
| HeartGold SoulSilver Booster Box | — | $4655.56 | TBD |
HeartGold SoulSilver Booster Pack · HeartGold SoulSilver Booster Box
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $466.66 | 28% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Holo Rare | 23.81% | |
| Ultra Rare | 26.39% | |
| Rare | 66.67% | |
| Common | 470% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugia Legend (Top) | Ultra Rare | $362.85 | 1 in 42 (2.4%) | $19451.53 |
| Lugia Legend (Bottom) | Ultra Rare | $326.35 | 1 in 42 (2.4%) | $19451.53 |
| Ho-Oh Legend (Top) | Ultra Rare | $249.54 | 1 in 42 (2.4%) | $19451.53 |
| Ho-Oh Legend (Bottom) | Ultra Rare | $170.21 | 1 in 42 (2.4%) | $19451.53 |
| Alph Lithograph | Ultra Rare | $131.57 | 1 in 42 (2.4%) | $19451.53 |
| Feraligatr (Prime) | Ultra Rare | $107.94 | 1 in 42 (2.4%) | $19451.53 |
| Typhlosion (Prime) | Ultra Rare | $84.17 | 1 in 42 (2.4%) | $19451.53 |
| Ampharos (Prime) | Ultra Rare | $67.64 | 1 in 42 (2.4%) | $19451.53 |
| Blissey (Prime) | Ultra Rare | $63.19 | 1 in 42 (2.4%) | $19451.53 |
| Meganium (Prime) | Ultra Rare | $62.56 | 1 in 42 (2.4%) | $19451.53 |
| Donphan (Prime) | Ultra Rare | $40.93 | 1 in 42 (2.4%) | $19451.53 |
| Gyarados (Red) | Holo Rare | $499.99 | 1 in 59 (1.7%) | $29398.82 |
| Gyarados (Red) | Holo Rare | $366.26 | 1 in 59 (1.7%) | $29398.82 |
| Arcanine | Holo Rare | $84.39 | 1 in 59 (1.7%) | $29398.82 |
| Gyarados | Holo Rare | $69.99 | 1 in 59 (1.7%) | $29398.82 |
| Gyarados | Holo Rare | $60.86 | 1 in 59 (1.7%) | $29398.82 |
| Darkness Energy (Basic) | Common | $55.77 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Pikachu | Common | $50.40 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Ninetales | Holo Rare | $49.31 | 1 in 59 (1.7%) | $29398.82 |
| Caterpie | Common | $49.00 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Slowking | Holo Rare | $47.73 | 1 in 59 (1.7%) | $29398.82 |
| Psychic Energy | Common | $46.30 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Ninetales | Holo Rare | $44.03 | 1 in 59 (1.7%) | $29398.82 |
| Magikarp | Common | $43.64 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Lapras | Rare | $43.50 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Growlithe | Common | $41.30 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Pichu | Rare | $40.31 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Raichu | Holo Rare | $39.68 | 1 in 59 (1.7%) | $29398.82 |
| Slowking | Holo Rare | $38.77 | 1 in 59 (1.7%) | $29398.82 |
| Vulpix | Common | $38.00 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Wooper | Common | $36.75 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Pokegear 3.0 | Uncommon | $36.23 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Raichu | Holo Rare | $35.65 | 1 in 59 (1.7%) | $29398.82 |
| Arcanine | Holo Rare | $33.79 | 1 in 59 (1.7%) | $29398.82 |
| Sandshrew | Common | $33.51 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Wobbuffet | Holo Rare | $33.36 | 1 in 59 (1.7%) | $29398.82 |
| Jigglypuff | Common | $32.99 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Shuckle | Holo Rare | $32.98 | 1 in 59 (1.7%) | $29398.82 |
| Igglybuff | Uncommon | $29.99 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Typhlosion | Rare | $29.99 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Totodile | Common | $29.78 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Pokemon Communication | Uncommon | $29.60 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Fisherman | Uncommon | $29.16 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Slowpoke | Common | $28.42 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Heracross | Uncommon | $28.33 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Sunflora | Rare | $27.06 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Shuckle | Holo Rare | $26.97 | 1 in 59 (1.7%) | $29398.82 |
| Sunkern | Common | $26.35 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Wobbuffet | Holo Rare | $25.74 | 1 in 59 (1.7%) | $29398.82 |
| Fire Energy | Common | $25.66 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Grass Energy | Common | $25.61 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Water Energy | Common | $25.56 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Energy Switch | Uncommon | $25.42 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Quagsire | Holo Rare | $24.65 | 1 in 59 (1.7%) | $29398.82 |
| Feraligatr | Rare | $24.47 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Quagsire | Holo Rare | $24.42 | 1 in 59 (1.7%) | $29398.82 |
| Slowbro | Uncommon | $24.40 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Ampharos | Rare | $24.17 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Butterfree | Rare | $22.76 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Lightning Energy | Common | $21.76 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Chansey | Common | $21.05 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Pokemon Collector | Uncommon | $21.00 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Metal Energy (Basic) | Common | $20.94 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Ledian | Rare | $20.36 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Meowth | Common | $20.05 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Switch | Uncommon | $19.96 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Double Colorless Energy | Uncommon | $19.48 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Furret | Rare | $18.95 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Phanpy | Common | $18.50 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Chikorita | Common | $17.62 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Jumpluff | Holo Rare | $17.00 | 1 in 59 (1.7%) | $29398.82 |
| Unown (55) | Uncommon | $17.00 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Fighting Energy | Common | $16.75 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Cyndaquil | Common | $16.48 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Sunflora | Rare | $15.82 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Bayleef | Uncommon | $15.49 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Staryu | Common | $15.40 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Fisherman | Uncommon | $15.12 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Persian | Rare | $14.92 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Unown (54) | Uncommon | $14.00 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Farfetch'd | Rare | $13.93 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Lapras | Rare | $13.61 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Noctowl | Holo Rare | $13.51 | 1 in 59 (1.7%) | $29398.82 |
| Cleffa | Rare | $13.11 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Mareep | Common | $13.09 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Clefairy | Common | $12.99 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Metapod | Uncommon | $12.56 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Butterfree | Rare | $12.11 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Meganium | Rare | $11.98 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Pikachu | Common | $11.90 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Clefable | Holo Rare | $11.82 | 1 in 59 (1.7%) | $29398.82 |
| Exeggutor | Rare | $11.74 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Pokegear 3.0 | Uncommon | $11.54 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Ledian | Rare | $11.41 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Azumarill | Holo Rare | $11.00 | 1 in 59 (1.7%) | $29398.82 |
| Pichu | Rare | $10.92 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Azumarill | Holo Rare | $10.46 | 1 in 59 (1.7%) | $29398.82 |
| Feraligatr | Rare | $10.30 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Typhlosion | Rare | $10.11 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Girafarig | Common | $10.00 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Hoppip | Common | $9.99 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Ledyba | Common | $9.99 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Corsola | Uncommon | $9.81 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Rainbow Energy | Uncommon | $9.62 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Clefable | Holo Rare | $9.47 | 1 in 59 (1.7%) | $29398.82 |
| Delibird | Uncommon | $9.34 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Noctowl | Holo Rare | $9.07 | 1 in 59 (1.7%) | $29398.82 |
| Furret | Rare | $9.05 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Moomoo Milk | Uncommon | $8.99 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Igglybuff | Uncommon | $8.86 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Jumpluff | Holo Rare | $8.71 | 1 in 59 (1.7%) | $29398.82 |
| Marill | Common | $8.50 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Hitmontop | Holo Rare | $8.30 | 1 in 59 (1.7%) | $29398.82 |
| Pokemon Collector | Uncommon | $8.15 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Quilava | Uncommon | $8.00 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Meganium | Rare | $7.50 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Smoochum | Rare | $7.50 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Ampharos | Rare | $7.37 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Koffing | Common | $7.30 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Miltank | Uncommon | $7.23 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Jynx | Common | $7.10 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Blissey | Uncommon | $7.00 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Professor Oak's New Theory | Uncommon | $6.96 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Heracross | Uncommon | $6.95 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Sandslash | Rare | $6.95 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Wigglytuff | Uncommon | $6.82 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Croconaw | Uncommon | $6.80 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Wigglytuff | Uncommon | $6.71 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Exeggcute | Common | $6.50 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Hitmontop | Holo Rare | $6.45 | 1 in 59 (1.7%) | $29398.82 |
| Pokemon Reversal | Uncommon | $6.36 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Weezing | Rare | $6.24 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Farfetch'd | Rare | $6.03 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Slowbro | Uncommon | $5.96 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Cleffa | Rare | $5.94 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Smoochum | Rare | $5.83 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Growlithe | Common | $5.81 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Qwilfish | Uncommon | $5.66 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Staryu | Common | $5.64 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Energy Switch | Uncommon | $5.14 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Copycat | Uncommon | $5.06 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Hoothoot | Common | $5.00 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Double Colorless Energy | Uncommon | $4.96 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Spinarak | Common | $4.96 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Hypno | Rare | $4.72 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Drowzee | Common | $4.67 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Wooper | Common | $4.60 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Slowpoke | Common | $4.57 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Tyrogue | Rare | $4.57 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Granbull | Rare | $4.56 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Jigglypuff | Common | $3.90 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Flaaffy | Uncommon | $3.82 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Sunkern | Common | $3.76 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Ledyba | Common | $3.63 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Persian | Rare | $3.45 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Sandslash | Rare | $3.26 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Pokemon Communication | Uncommon | $3.16 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Tyrogue | Rare | $3.14 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Miltank | Uncommon | $3.11 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Clefairy | Common | $3.01 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Chansey | Common | $2.97 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Metapod | Uncommon | $2.97 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Vulpix | Common | $2.95 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Ariados | Rare | $2.90 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Paras | Common | $2.84 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Professor Elm's Training Method | Uncommon | $2.74 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Sentret | Common | $2.69 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Poke Ball | Uncommon | $2.58 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Totodile | Common | $2.41 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Exeggutor | Rare | $2.36 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Blissey | Uncommon | $2.24 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Mantine | Uncommon | $2.23 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Caterpie | Common | $2.14 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Snubbull | Common | $2.14 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Dunsparce | Uncommon | $2.13 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Meowth | Common | $2.07 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Quilava | Uncommon | $2.05 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Unown (54) | Uncommon | $2.04 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Rainbow Energy | Uncommon | $1.96 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Bayleef | Uncommon | $1.95 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Pokemon Reversal | Uncommon | $1.95 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Starmie | Uncommon | $1.95 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Magikarp | Common | $1.93 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Cyndaquil | Common | $1.91 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Parasect | Uncommon | $1.84 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Chikorita | Common | $1.79 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Weezing | Rare | $1.77 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Hypno | Rare | $1.68 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Croconaw | Uncommon | $1.65 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Unown (55) | Uncommon | $1.61 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Delibird | Uncommon | $1.60 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Full Heal | Uncommon | $1.60 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Donphan | Uncommon | $1.50 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Parasect | Uncommon | $1.48 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Switch | Uncommon | $1.45 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Bill | Uncommon | $1.42 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Skiploom | Uncommon | $1.42 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Ariados | Rare | $1.39 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Flaaffy | Uncommon | $1.19 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Girafarig | Common | $1.12 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Moomoo Milk | Uncommon | $1.06 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Starmie | Uncommon | $0.97 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Mantine | Uncommon | $0.89 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Phanpy | Common | $0.86 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Sandshrew | Common | $0.84 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Marill | Common | $0.76 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Granbull | Rare | $0.75 | 1 in 31 (3.17%) | $15748.90 |
| Professor Oak's New Theory | Uncommon | $0.75 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Qwilfish | Uncommon | $0.71 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Hoothoot | Common | $0.68 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Copycat | Uncommon | $0.67 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Donphan | Uncommon | $0.64 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Corsola | Uncommon | $0.62 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Paras | Common | $0.61 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Drowzee | Common | $0.60 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Dunsparce | Uncommon | $0.58 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Mareep | Common | $0.58 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Hoppip | Common | $0.56 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Koffing | Common | $0.55 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Sentret | Common | $0.46 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Snubbull | Common | $0.45 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Exeggcute | Common | $0.42 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Jynx | Common | $0.42 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Bill | Uncommon | $0.39 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Professor Elm's Training Method | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Spinarak | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Poke Ball | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Full Heal | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Skiploom | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 13 (7.89%) | $6333.21 |
| Grass Energy | Common | — | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Lightning Energy | Common | — | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |
| Psychic Energy | Common | — | 1 in 9 (11.75%) | $4255.23 |