Chaos Rising
A $5.02 Chaos Rising pack returns $2.65 in expected card value on average — 53% of what you paid.
These odds are TCGPlayer's own published figures for Chaos Rising, from a 8,500-pack sample opened and counted by their Authentication Center.
About this set
Chaos Rising has the largest official pull-rate sample of any Mega Evolution set on this site, 8,500 packs, so its odds are about as solid as published odds get. Its most interesting quirk is the pair of Mega Greninja ex cards: the Mega Hyper Rare is twice as hard to pull as the Special Illustration Rare (about one in 1,000 packs against one in 500), yet the two sell for nearly the same price. Rarity alone does not set the price; collectors are paying for the artwork.
As with the other recent main sets, the booster box is the least-bad way to open it, at around $5 a pack with a little over half its cost back. The Elite Trainer Box returns closer to a third. (Written November 2026. Returns quoted here count every card in the pack, whatever its value; prices move daily, and the figures above are current.)
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
- Pack EV: $2.65
- Cheapest pack: $5.02 (Chaos Rising Booster Box)
- Cards: 122 (198 versions)
Products in this set
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chaos Rising Booster Box | $180.76 | $95.36 | 53% |
| Chaos Rising Booster Pack | $5.32 | $2.65 | 50% |
| Chaos Rising Sleeved Booster Pack | $5.79 | $2.65 | 46% |
| Chaos Rising Booster Bundle | $37.10 | $15.89 | 43% |
| Chaos Rising Single Pack Blister [Toxel] | $6.85 | $2.65 | 39% |
| Chaos Rising 3-Pack Blister [Charmeleon] | $21.22 | $7.95 | 37% |
| Chaos Rising Elite Trainer Box | $68.81 | $23.84 | 35% |
| Chaos Rising Build & Battle Box | $37.93 | $10.60 | 28% |
| Chaos Rising Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box | $116.67 | $23.84 | 20% |
| Chaos Rising Single Pack Blister [Zacian/Mimikyu] | $13.80 | $2.65 | 19% |
| Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister [Pawmot Line] | $14.19 | $2.65 | 19% |
| Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister [Flygon Line] | $14.33 | $2.65 | 18% |
| Chaos Rising Single Pack Blister [Reshiram/Moltres] | $17.33 | $2.65 | 15% |
| Chaos Rising Half Booster Box | — | $47.68 | TBD |
Where to buy
Chaos Rising Booster Box · Chaos Rising Booster Pack · Chaos Rising Sleeved Booster Pack · Chaos Rising Booster Bundle · Chaos Rising Single Pack Blister [Toxel] · Chaos Rising 3-Pack Blister [Charmeleon] · Chaos Rising Elite Trainer Box · Chaos Rising Build & Battle Box · Chaos Rising Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box · Chaos Rising Single Pack Blister [Zacian/Mimikyu] · Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister [Pawmot Line] · Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister [Flygon Line] · Chaos Rising Single Pack Blister [Reshiram/Moltres] · Chaos Rising Half Booster Box
Expected return by product type
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Box | $5.02 | 53% |
| Booster Pack | $5.32 | 50% |
| Booster Bundle | $6.18 | 43% |
| Elite Trainer Box | $7.65 | 35% |
Pull rates (source: tcgplayer_blog)
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Mega Hyper Rare | 0.1% | n=8500 |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1.21% | n=8500 |
| Ultra Rare | 8.29% | n=8500 |
| Illustration Rare | 10.66% | n=8500 |
| Double Rare | 20.3% | n=8500 |
| Rare | 71.43% | |
| Common | 400% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
Cards & odds
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Greninja ex - 122/086 | Mega Hyper Rare | $109.33 | 1 in 1000 (0.1%) | $5021.11 |
| Mega Greninja ex - 116/086 | Special Illustration Rare | $103.86 | 1 in 496 (0.2%) | $2489.81 |
| Cinccino ex - 119/086 | Special Illustration Rare | $36.87 | 1 in 496 (0.2%) | $2489.81 |
| Mega Dragalge ex - 118/086 | Special Illustration Rare | $19.78 | 1 in 496 (0.2%) | $2489.81 |
| Mega Floette ex - 117/086 | Special Illustration Rare | $19.45 | 1 in 496 (0.2%) | $2489.81 |
| AZ's Tranquility - 120/086 | Special Illustration Rare | $17.19 | 1 in 496 (0.2%) | $2489.81 |
| Roxie's Performance - 121/086 | Special Illustration Rare | $15.04 | 1 in 496 (0.2%) | $2489.81 |
| Mega Greninja ex - 100/086 | Ultra Rare | $7.14 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1090.23 |
| Froakie - 088/086 | Illustration Rare | $4.58 | 1 in 103 (0.97%) | $518.13 |
| Ampharos - 090/086 | Illustration Rare | $4.10 | 1 in 103 (0.97%) | $518.13 |
| Xerneas - 091/086 | Illustration Rare | $3.54 | 1 in 103 (0.97%) | $518.13 |
| Frogadier - 089/086 | Illustration Rare | $3.41 | 1 in 103 (0.97%) | $518.13 |
| Mega Floette ex - 101/086 | Ultra Rare | $3.24 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1090.23 |
| Jumbo Ice Cream | Ultra Rare | $2.89 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1090.23 |
| Cinccino ex - 105/086 | Ultra Rare | $2.82 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1090.23 |
| Chespin - 087/086 | Illustration Rare | $2.66 | 1 in 103 (0.97%) | $518.13 |
| Surfing Beach | Ultra Rare | $2.59 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1090.23 |
| Special Red Card - 113/086 | Ultra Rare | $2.55 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1090.23 |
| Mega Pyroar ex - 099/086 | Ultra Rare | $2.09 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1090.23 |
| Tauros - 096/086 | Illustration Rare | $1.89 | 1 in 103 (0.97%) | $518.13 |
| Beedrill ex - 098/086 | Ultra Rare | $1.88 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1090.23 |
| Mega Dragalge ex - 104/086 | Ultra Rare | $1.78 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1090.23 |
| Prism Tower - 111/086 | Ultra Rare | $1.74 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1090.23 |
| Emma - 107/086 | Ultra Rare | $1.71 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1090.23 |
| Metang - 094/086 | Illustration Rare | $1.68 | 1 in 103 (0.97%) | $518.13 |
| Energy Retrieval | Ultra Rare | $1.49 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1090.23 |
| AZ's Tranquility - 106/086 | Ultra Rare | $1.48 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1090.23 |
| Crobat - 093/086 | Illustration Rare | $1.48 | 1 in 103 (0.97%) | $518.13 |
| Sliggoo - 095/086 | Illustration Rare | $1.45 | 1 in 103 (0.97%) | $518.13 |
| Claydol - 092/086 | Illustration Rare | $1.41 | 1 in 103 (0.97%) | $518.13 |
| Cobalion ex - 103/086 | Ultra Rare | $1.14 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1090.23 |
| Gourgeist ex - 102/086 | Ultra Rare | $1.14 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1090.23 |
| Watchog - 097/086 | Illustration Rare | $1.09 | 1 in 103 (0.97%) | $518.13 |
| Philippe - 110/086 | Ultra Rare | $1.07 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1090.23 |
| Roxie's Performance - 112/086 | Ultra Rare | $1.05 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1090.23 |
| Tool Scrapper | Ultra Rare | $0.81 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1090.23 |
| Mega Greninja ex - 022/086 | Double Rare | $0.77 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $247.35 |
| Cinccino ex - 073/086 | Double Rare | $0.74 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $247.35 |
| Mega Gallade ex | Double Rare | $0.65 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $247.35 |
| Beedrill ex - 003/086 | Double Rare | $0.63 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $247.35 |
| Gourgeist ex - 041/086 | Double Rare | $0.61 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $247.35 |
| Cobalion ex - 064/086 | Double Rare | $0.57 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $247.35 |
| Krookodile ex | Double Rare | $0.57 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $247.35 |
| Mega Pyroar ex - 015/086 | Double Rare | $0.55 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $247.35 |
| Mega Dragalge ex - 065/086 | Double Rare | $0.54 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $247.35 |
| Mega Floette ex - 035/086 | Double Rare | $0.50 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $247.35 |
| Transformation Tome | Uncommon | $0.38 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Frogadier - 021/086 | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Minccino | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Kakuna | Common | $0.32 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Special Red Card - 082/086 | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Goodra | Rare | $0.31 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Espurr | Common | $0.30 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Garbodor | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Trevenant | Rare | $0.30 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Deoxys - 032/086 | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Deoxys - 033/086 | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Emolga | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Great Haul Net | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Magnetic Metal Energy | Rare | $0.29 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Meowstic | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Skrelp | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Skuntank | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Ampharos - 029/086 | Rare | $0.28 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Claydol - 047/086 | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Deoxys - 034/086 | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Philippe - 079/086 | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Stunky | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Tauros - 069/086 | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Watchog - 071/086 | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Vulpix | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Delibird | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Delphox | Rare | $0.26 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Donphan | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Ferrothorn | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Keldeo | Rare | $0.26 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Metagross | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Ninetales | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Octillery | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Qwilfish | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Trubbish | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Weedle | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Zubat | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Bubbly W Energy | Rare | $0.25 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Chesnaught | Rare | $0.25 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Deoxys - 031/086 | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Flaaffy | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Phanpy | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Pumpkaboo | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Adversity Policy | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Braixen | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Emma - 077/086 | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Froakie - 020/086 | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Golbat | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Mareep | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Nitro R Energy | Rare | $0.24 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Phantump | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Prism Tower - 080/086 | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Sliggoo - 067/086 | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Xerneas - 042/086 | Rare | $0.24 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Avalugg | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Baltoy | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Beldum | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Crobat - 051/086 | Rare | $0.23 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Ho-Oh | Rare | $0.23 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Ho-Oh | Rare | $0.23 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Patrat | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Ampharos - 029/086 | Rare | $0.22 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Ange Floette | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Golisopod | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Quilladin | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Roxie's Performance - 081/086 | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Sudowoodo | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| AZ's Tranquility - 076/086 | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Bergmite | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Carnivine | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Delphox | Rare | $0.21 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Ferroseed | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Goodra | Rare | $0.21 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Magnetic Metal Energy | Rare | $0.21 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Nitro R Energy | Rare | $0.21 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Prism Tower - 080/086 | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| AZ's Tranquility - 076/086 | Uncommon | $0.20 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Chesnaught | Rare | $0.20 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Chespin - 005/086 | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Goomy | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Litleo | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Metang - 060/086 | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Philippe - 079/086 | Uncommon | $0.20 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Skrelp | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Transformation Tome | Uncommon | $0.20 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Bubbly W Energy | Rare | $0.19 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Fennekin | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Kakuna | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Remoraid | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Special Red Card - 082/086 | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Wimpod | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Baltoy | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Beldum | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Espurr | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Qwilfish | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Xerneas - 042/086 | Rare | $0.17 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Emolga | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Great Haul Net | Uncommon | $0.16 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Metagross | Uncommon | $0.16 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Pumpkaboo | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Weedle | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Ange Floette | Uncommon | $0.15 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Crobat - 051/086 | Rare | $0.15 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Adversity Policy | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Braixen | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Donphan | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Fennekin | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Golbat | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Phantump | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Trevenant | Rare | $0.14 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Vulpix | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Delibird | Uncommon | $0.13 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Deoxys - 034/086 | Uncommon | $0.13 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Emma - 077/086 | Uncommon | $0.13 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Flaaffy | Common | $0.13 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Keldeo | Rare | $0.13 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Mareep | Common | $0.13 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Metang - 060/086 | Common | $0.13 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Minccino | Common | $0.13 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Quilladin | Common | $0.13 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Roxie's Performance - 081/086 | Uncommon | $0.13 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Bergmite | Common | $0.12 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Deoxys - 031/086 | Uncommon | $0.12 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Deoxys - 033/086 | Uncommon | $0.12 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Ferrothorn | Uncommon | $0.12 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Meowstic | Uncommon | $0.12 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Ninetales | Uncommon | $0.12 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Octillery | Common | $0.12 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Phanpy | Common | $0.12 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Skuntank | Uncommon | $0.12 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Trubbish | Common | $0.12 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Watchog - 071/086 | Common | $0.12 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Avalugg | Uncommon | $0.11 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Carnivine | Common | $0.11 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Claydol - 047/086 | Uncommon | $0.11 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Deoxys - 032/086 | Uncommon | $0.11 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Ferroseed | Common | $0.11 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Frogadier - 021/086 | Common | $0.11 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Litleo | Common | $0.11 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Patrat | Common | $0.11 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Sliggoo - 067/086 | Common | $0.11 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Wimpod | Common | $0.11 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Golisopod | Uncommon | $0.10 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Goomy | Common | $0.10 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Zubat | Common | $0.10 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Chespin - 005/086 | Common | $0.09 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Froakie - 020/086 | Common | $0.09 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Remoraid | Common | $0.09 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Stunky | Common | $0.09 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Tauros - 069/086 | Uncommon | $0.09 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Garbodor | Uncommon | $0.07 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Sudowoodo | Uncommon | $0.07 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |