A $5.30 Chaos Rising pack returns $2.60 in expected card value on average — 49% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers Chaos Rising, so these odds come from thepricedex.com, which discloses a disclosed sample. Sources that do not state how many packs they counted are not used here, however confident they sound.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chaos Rising Booster Box | $190.72 | $93.65 | 49% |
| Chaos Rising Booster Pack | $5.63 | $2.60 | 46% |
| Chaos Rising Booster Bundle | $37.23 | $15.61 | 42% |
| Chaos Rising Single Pack Blister [Toxel] | $6.71 | $2.60 | 39% |
| Chaos Rising 3-Pack Blister [Charmeleon] | $20.49 | $7.80 | 38% |
| Chaos Rising Sleeved Booster Pack | $6.90 | $2.60 | 38% |
| Chaos Rising Elite Trainer Box | $66.51 | $23.41 | 35% |
| Chaos Rising Build & Battle Box | $43.78 | $10.41 | 24% |
| Chaos Rising Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box | $122.81 | $23.41 | 19% |
| Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister [Pawmot Line] | $14.66 | $2.60 | 18% |
| Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister [Flygon Line] | $15.26 | $2.60 | 17% |
| Chaos Rising Single Pack Blister [Zacian/Mimikyu] | $22.89 | $2.60 | 11% |
| Chaos Rising Single Pack Blister [Reshiram/Moltres] | $24.30 | $2.60 | 11% |
| Chaos Rising Half Booster Box | — | $46.82 | TBD |
Chaos Rising Booster Box · Chaos Rising Booster Pack · Chaos Rising Booster Bundle · Chaos Rising Single Pack Blister [Toxel] · Chaos Rising 3-Pack Blister [Charmeleon] · Chaos Rising Sleeved Booster Pack · Chaos Rising Elite Trainer Box · Chaos Rising Build & Battle Box · Chaos Rising Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box · Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister [Pawmot Line] · Chaos Rising Premium Checklane Blister [Flygon Line] · Chaos Rising Single Pack Blister [Zacian/Mimikyu] · Chaos Rising Single Pack Blister [Reshiram/Moltres] · Chaos Rising Half Booster Box
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Box | $5.30 | 49% |
| Booster Pack | $5.63 | 46% |
| Booster Bundle | $6.20 | 42% |
| Elite Trainer Box | $7.39 | 35% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Mega Hyper Rare | 0.1% | n=8500 |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1.21% | n=8500 |
| Ultra Rare | 8.29% | n=8500 |
| Illustration Rare | 10.66% | n=8500 |
| Double Rare | 20.3% | n=8500 |
| Rare | 71.43% | |
| Common | 400% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Greninja ex - 116/086 | Special Illustration Rare | $154.68 | 1 in 496 (0.2%) | $2627.00 |
| Mega Greninja ex - 122/086 | Mega Hyper Rare | $152.14 | 1 in 1000 (0.1%) | $5297.78 |
| Cinccino ex - 119/086 | Special Illustration Rare | $47.43 | 1 in 496 (0.2%) | $2627.00 |
| Mega Dragalge ex - 118/086 | Special Illustration Rare | $25.82 | 1 in 496 (0.2%) | $2627.00 |
| Mega Floette ex - 117/086 | Special Illustration Rare | $25.23 | 1 in 496 (0.2%) | $2627.00 |
| AZ's Tranquility - 120/086 | Special Illustration Rare | $19.78 | 1 in 496 (0.2%) | $2627.00 |
| Roxie's Performance - 121/086 | Special Illustration Rare | $17.65 | 1 in 496 (0.2%) | $2627.00 |
| Mega Greninja ex - 100/086 | Ultra Rare | $9.33 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1150.30 |
| Froakie - 088/086 | Illustration Rare | $5.73 | 1 in 103 (0.97%) | $546.68 |
| Xerneas - 091/086 | Illustration Rare | $5.12 | 1 in 103 (0.97%) | $546.68 |
| Ampharos - 090/086 | Illustration Rare | $4.91 | 1 in 103 (0.97%) | $546.68 |
| Frogadier - 089/086 | Illustration Rare | $4.11 | 1 in 103 (0.97%) | $546.68 |
| Cinccino ex - 105/086 | Ultra Rare | $3.87 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1150.30 |
| Jumbo Ice Cream | Ultra Rare | $3.61 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1150.30 |
| Chespin - 087/086 | Illustration Rare | $3.47 | 1 in 103 (0.97%) | $546.68 |
| Surfing Beach | Ultra Rare | $3.41 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1150.30 |
| Special Red Card - 113/086 | Ultra Rare | $3.14 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1150.30 |
| Mega Pyroar ex - 099/086 | Ultra Rare | $2.46 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1150.30 |
| Mega Floette ex - 101/086 | Ultra Rare | $2.42 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1150.30 |
| Mega Dragalge ex - 104/086 | Ultra Rare | $2.04 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1150.30 |
| Crobat - 093/086 | Illustration Rare | $2.03 | 1 in 103 (0.97%) | $546.68 |
| Beedrill ex - 098/086 | Ultra Rare | $1.95 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1150.30 |
| Tauros - 096/086 | Illustration Rare | $1.95 | 1 in 103 (0.97%) | $546.68 |
| Emma - 107/086 | Ultra Rare | $1.82 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1150.30 |
| Sliggoo - 095/086 | Illustration Rare | $1.77 | 1 in 103 (0.97%) | $546.68 |
| Cobalion ex - 103/086 | Ultra Rare | $1.62 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1150.30 |
| Energy Retrieval | Ultra Rare | $1.62 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1150.30 |
| Prism Tower - 111/086 | Ultra Rare | $1.58 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1150.30 |
| Roxie's Performance - 112/086 | Ultra Rare | $1.44 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1150.30 |
| Claydol - 092/086 | Illustration Rare | $1.43 | 1 in 103 (0.97%) | $546.68 |
| Metang - 094/086 | Illustration Rare | $1.36 | 1 in 103 (0.97%) | $546.68 |
| AZ's Tranquility - 106/086 | Ultra Rare | $1.31 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1150.30 |
| Watchog - 097/086 | Illustration Rare | $1.28 | 1 in 103 (0.97%) | $546.68 |
| Philippe - 110/086 | Ultra Rare | $1.21 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1150.30 |
| Tool Scrapper | Ultra Rare | $1.20 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1150.30 |
| Gourgeist ex - 102/086 | Ultra Rare | $1.13 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1150.30 |
| Mega Greninja ex - 022/086 | Double Rare | $0.92 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $260.97 |
| Mega Floette ex - 035/086 | Double Rare | $0.71 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $260.97 |
| Beedrill ex - 003/086 | Double Rare | $0.67 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $260.97 |
| Krookodile ex | Double Rare | $0.65 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $260.97 |
| Cinccino ex - 073/086 | Double Rare | $0.57 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $260.97 |
| Gourgeist ex - 041/086 | Double Rare | $0.57 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $260.97 |
| Mega Dragalge ex - 065/086 | Double Rare | $0.56 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $260.97 |
| Mega Gallade ex | Double Rare | $0.54 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $260.97 |
| Mega Pyroar ex - 015/086 | Double Rare | $0.54 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $260.97 |
| Cobalion ex - 064/086 | Double Rare | $0.50 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $260.97 |
| Meowstic | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Special Red Card - 082/086 | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Trubbish | Common | $0.30 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Magnetic Metal Energy | Rare | $0.29 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Prism Tower - 080/086 | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Emolga | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Metagross | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Braixen | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Deoxys - 032/086 | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Tauros - 069/086 | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Bubbly W Energy | Rare | $0.26 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Flaaffy | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Great Haul Net | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Ho-Oh | Rare | $0.26 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Transformation Tome | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Xerneas - 042/086 | Rare | $0.26 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Delphox | Rare | $0.25 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Espurr | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Ferrothorn | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Frogadier - 021/086 | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Vulpix | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Adversity Policy | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Ange Floette | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Beldum | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Deoxys - 031/086 | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Deoxys - 033/086 | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Deoxys - 034/086 | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Donphan | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Goomy | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Kakuna | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Ninetales | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Pumpkaboo | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Qwilfish | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Trevenant | Rare | $0.24 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Zubat | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Ampharos - 029/086 | Rare | $0.23 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Claydol - 047/086 | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Froakie - 020/086 | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Garbodor | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Goodra | Rare | $0.23 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Keldeo | Rare | $0.23 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Phanpy | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Skuntank | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Chespin - 005/086 | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Crobat - 051/086 | Rare | $0.22 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Delibird | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Emma - 077/086 | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Golbat | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Metang - 060/086 | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Minccino | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Nitro R Energy | Rare | $0.22 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Prism Tower - 080/086 | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Quilladin | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Roxie's Performance - 081/086 | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Skrelp | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| AZ's Tranquility - 076/086 | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Baltoy | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Magnetic Metal Energy | Rare | $0.21 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Philippe - 079/086 | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Avalugg | Uncommon | $0.20 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Fennekin | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Kakuna | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Litleo | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Octillery | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Patrat | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Sudowoodo | Uncommon | $0.20 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Chesnaught | Rare | $0.19 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Frogadier - 021/086 | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Mareep | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Remoraid | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Sliggoo - 067/086 | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Stunky | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Watchog - 071/086 | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Weedle | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Ampharos - 029/086 | Rare | $0.18 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Bergmite | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Bubbly W Energy | Rare | $0.18 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Ferroseed | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Golisopod | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Wimpod | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Fennekin | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Ho-Oh | Rare | $0.17 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Xerneas - 042/086 | Rare | $0.17 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| AZ's Tranquility - 076/086 | Uncommon | $0.16 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Braixen | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Chesnaught | Rare | $0.16 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Delphox | Rare | $0.16 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Metagross | Uncommon | $0.16 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Phantump | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Carnivine | Common | $0.15 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Espurr | Common | $0.15 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Ninetales | Uncommon | $0.15 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Nitro R Energy | Rare | $0.15 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Transformation Tome | Uncommon | $0.15 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Crobat - 051/086 | Rare | $0.14 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Goodra | Rare | $0.14 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Patrat | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Froakie - 020/086 | Common | $0.13 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Great Haul Net | Uncommon | $0.13 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Keldeo | Rare | $0.13 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Philippe - 079/086 | Uncommon | $0.13 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Skrelp | Common | $0.13 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Special Red Card - 082/086 | Uncommon | $0.13 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Weedle | Common | $0.13 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Ange Floette | Uncommon | $0.12 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Pumpkaboo | Common | $0.12 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Beldum | Common | $0.11 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Emma - 077/086 | Uncommon | $0.11 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Minccino | Common | $0.11 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Trevenant | Rare | $0.11 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | $88.20 |
| Trubbish | Common | $0.11 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Vulpix | Common | $0.11 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Golbat | Common | $0.10 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Goomy | Common | $0.10 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Phanpy | Common | $0.10 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Qwilfish | Common | $0.10 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Bergmite | Common | $0.09 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Ferrothorn | Uncommon | $0.09 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Remoraid | Common | $0.09 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Avalugg | Uncommon | $0.08 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Deoxys - 031/086 | Uncommon | $0.08 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Deoxys - 032/086 | Uncommon | $0.08 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Deoxys - 034/086 | Uncommon | $0.08 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Emolga | Common | $0.08 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Mareep | Common | $0.08 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Quilladin | Common | $0.08 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Roxie's Performance - 081/086 | Uncommon | $0.08 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Sliggoo - 067/086 | Common | $0.08 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Meowstic | Uncommon | $0.07 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Octillery | Common | $0.07 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Stunky | Common | $0.07 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Sudowoodo | Uncommon | $0.07 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Tauros - 069/086 | Uncommon | $0.07 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Wimpod | Common | $0.07 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Adversity Policy | Uncommon | $0.06 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Baltoy | Common | $0.06 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Chespin - 005/086 | Common | $0.06 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Delibird | Uncommon | $0.06 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Deoxys - 033/086 | Uncommon | $0.06 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Flaaffy | Common | $0.06 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Watchog - 071/086 | Common | $0.06 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Zubat | Common | $0.06 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Golisopod | Uncommon | $0.05 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Skuntank | Uncommon | $0.05 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Metang - 060/086 | Common | $0.04 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Phantump | Common | $0.04 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Carnivine | Common | $0.03 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Claydol - 047/086 | Uncommon | $0.02 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Donphan | Common | $0.02 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Ferroseed | Common | $0.02 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |
| Garbodor | Uncommon | $0.02 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.50 |
| Litleo | Common | $0.02 | 1 in 10 (10.53%) | $49.88 |