Pitch Black
A $4.87 Pitch Black pack returns $2.89 in expected card value on average — 59% of what you paid.
These odds are TCGPlayer's own published figures for Pitch Black, from a 4,000-pack sample opened and counted by their Authentication Center.
About this set
Pitch Black is a good example of why waiting for real pull rates matters: TCGplayer's 4,000-pack count arrived six days after the set released, and until then every number anyone published was a guess. The count puts Special Illustration Rares at about one per 80 packs, spread across six cards, so any one of them, including the Mega Darkrai ex that leads the set at around $135, is roughly a one-in-480-pack pull.
The gap between products is unusually wide. A booster box works out to about $5 a pack and returns around 60% of its price, while an Elite Trainer Box costs over $7.50 a pack and returns under 40%. If you want to open this set, the box is the only form that comes close to defensible. (Written November 2026. Returns quoted here count every card in the pack, whatever its value; prices move daily, and the figures above are current.)
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
- Pack EV: $2.89
- Cheapest pack: $4.87 (Pitch Black Booster Box)
- Cards: 120 (194 versions)
Products in this set
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pitch Black Booster Box | $175.24 | $104.11 | 59% |
| Pitch Black Booster Pack | $5.73 | $2.89 | 50% |
| Pitch Black 3-Pack Blister [Binacle] | $18.98 | $8.68 | 46% |
| Pitch Black Booster Bundle | $38.89 | $17.35 | 45% |
| Pitch Black Sleeved Booster Pack | $6.51 | $2.89 | 44% |
| Pitch Black Elite Trainer Box | $69.81 | $26.03 | 37% |
| Pitch Black Single Pack Blister [Slowpoke] | $8.07 | $2.89 | 36% |
| Pitch Black Build & Battle Box | $34.01 | $11.57 | 34% |
| Pitch Black Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box (Exclusive) | $112.11 | $26.03 | 23% |
| Pitch Black Premium Checklane Blister [Tyrunt, Tyrantrum] (Target Exclusive) | $14.77 | $2.89 | 20% |
| Pitch Black Premium Checklane Blister [Amaura, Aurorus] (Target Exclusive) | $15.19 | $2.89 | 19% |
| Pitch Black Premium Checklane Blister [Luxray Line] | $17.10 | $2.89 | 17% |
| Pitch Black Premium Checklane Blister [Gengar Line] | $22.78 | $2.89 | 13% |
| Pitch Black Half Booster Boxes | — | $52.05 | TBD |
Where to buy
Pitch Black Booster Box · Pitch Black Booster Pack · Pitch Black 3-Pack Blister [Binacle] · Pitch Black Booster Bundle · Pitch Black Sleeved Booster Pack · Pitch Black Elite Trainer Box · Pitch Black Single Pack Blister [Slowpoke] · Pitch Black Build & Battle Box · Pitch Black Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box (Exclusive) · Pitch Black Premium Checklane Blister [Tyrunt, Tyrantrum] (Target Exclusive) · Pitch Black Premium Checklane Blister [Amaura, Aurorus] (Target Exclusive) · Pitch Black Premium Checklane Blister [Luxray Line] · Pitch Black Premium Checklane Blister [Gengar Line] · Pitch Black Half Booster Boxes
Expected return by product type
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Box | $4.87 | 59% |
| Booster Pack | $5.73 | 50% |
| Booster Bundle | $6.48 | 45% |
| Elite Trainer Box | $7.76 | 37% |
Pull rates (source: tcgplayer_blog)
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Mega Hyper Rare | 0.09% | n=4000 |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1.25% | n=4000 |
| Ultra Rare | 8.3% | n=4000 |
| Illustration Rare | 11.01% | n=4000 |
| Double Rare | 21.02% | n=4000 |
| Rare | 71.43% | |
| Common | 400% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
Cards & odds
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Darkrai ex - 116/084 | Special Illustration Rare | $132.61 | 1 in 480 (0.21%) | $2336.53 |
| Mega Darkrai ex - 120/084 | Mega Hyper Rare | $116.54 | 1 in 1111 (0.09%) | $5408.64 |
| Morpeko ex - 117/084 | Special Illustration Rare | $56.43 | 1 in 480 (0.21%) | $2336.53 |
| Mega Zeraora ex - 114/084 | Special Illustration Rare | $31.93 | 1 in 480 (0.21%) | $2336.53 |
| Mega Chandelure ex - 115/084 | Special Illustration Rare | $27.71 | 1 in 480 (0.21%) | $2336.53 |
| Gwynn - 119/084 | Special Illustration Rare | $24.07 | 1 in 480 (0.21%) | $2336.53 |
| Gladion's Final Battle - 118/084 | Special Illustration Rare | $19.18 | 1 in 480 (0.21%) | $2336.53 |
| Misty's Vitality - 111/084 | Ultra Rare | $8.63 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1055.66 |
| Mega Darkrai ex - 101/084 | Ultra Rare | $7.28 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1055.66 |
| Gwynn - 109/084 | Ultra Rare | $5.97 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1055.66 |
| Mega Zeraora ex - 098/084 | Ultra Rare | $5.70 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1055.66 |
| Slowbro - 090/084 | Illustration Rare | $5.20 | 1 in 100 (1%) | $486.34 |
| Mega Chandelure ex - 099/084 | Ultra Rare | $4.89 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1055.66 |
| Crushing Hammer | Ultra Rare | $4.03 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1055.66 |
| Wailord ex - 097/084 | Ultra Rare | $3.66 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1055.66 |
| Mega Excadrill ex - 103/084 | Ultra Rare | $3.33 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1055.66 |
| Brave Bangle | Ultra Rare | $3.31 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1055.66 |
| Goldeen - 087/084 | Illustration Rare | $3.30 | 1 in 100 (1%) | $486.34 |
| Morpeko ex - 102/084 | Ultra Rare | $3.22 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1055.66 |
| Energy Switch | Ultra Rare | $2.55 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1055.66 |
| Rampardos ex - 100/084 | Ultra Rare | $2.36 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1055.66 |
| Armarouge - 086/084 | Illustration Rare | $2.01 | 1 in 100 (1%) | $486.34 |
| Lurantis ex - 096/084 | Ultra Rare | $1.94 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1055.66 |
| Dhelmise - 091/084 | Illustration Rare | $1.93 | 1 in 100 (1%) | $486.34 |
| Rust Syndicate Grunt - 112/084 | Ultra Rare | $1.93 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1055.66 |
| Gladion's Final Battle - 108/084 | Ultra Rare | $1.90 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1055.66 |
| Primarina - 088/084 | Illustration Rare | $1.74 | 1 in 100 (1%) | $486.34 |
| Silvally - 095/084 | Illustration Rare | $1.51 | 1 in 100 (1%) | $486.34 |
| Fomantis - 085/084 | Illustration Rare | $1.50 | 1 in 100 (1%) | $486.34 |
| Bastiodon - 093/084 | Illustration Rare | $1.47 | 1 in 100 (1%) | $486.34 |
| Toucannon - 094/084 | Illustration Rare | $1.43 | 1 in 100 (1%) | $486.34 |
| Dark Bell - 106/084 | Ultra Rare | $1.35 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1055.66 |
| Tremendous Bomb - 113/084 | Ultra Rare | $1.35 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1055.66 |
| Manectric - 089/084 | Illustration Rare | $1.31 | 1 in 100 (1%) | $486.34 |
| Thievul - 092/084 | Illustration Rare | $1.27 | 1 in 100 (1%) | $486.34 |
| Iron Defender | Ultra Rare | $0.96 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1055.66 |
| Mega Slowbro ex | Double Rare | $0.62 | 1 in 48 (2.1%) | $231.58 |
| Rampardos ex - 045/084 | Double Rare | $0.58 | 1 in 48 (2.1%) | $231.58 |
| Lurantis ex - 004/084 | Double Rare | $0.56 | 1 in 48 (2.1%) | $231.58 |
| Wailord ex - 016/084 | Double Rare | $0.55 | 1 in 48 (2.1%) | $231.58 |
| Mega Darkrai ex - 048/084 | Double Rare | $0.55 | 1 in 48 (2.1%) | $231.58 |
| Mega Zeraora ex - 027/084 | Double Rare | $0.54 | 1 in 48 (2.1%) | $231.58 |
| Mega Chandelure ex - 038/084 | Double Rare | $0.53 | 1 in 48 (2.1%) | $231.58 |
| Mega Excadrill ex - 065/084 | Double Rare | $0.53 | 1 in 48 (2.1%) | $231.58 |
| Mega Delphox ex | Double Rare | $0.51 | 1 in 48 (2.1%) | $231.58 |
| Morpeko ex - 055/084 | Double Rare | $0.50 | 1 in 48 (2.1%) | $231.58 |
| Lampent | Uncommon | $0.34 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Koraidon | Rare | $0.33 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Bastiodon - 062/084 | Rare | $0.33 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Slowpoke | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Chi-Yu | Rare | $0.31 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Silvally - 070/084 | Rare | $0.31 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Finizen | Common | $0.30 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Miraidon | Rare | $0.30 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Dhelmise - 039/084 | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Drilbur | Common | $0.30 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Maschiff | Common | $0.30 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Spiritomb | Rare | $0.29 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Inkay | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Zarude | Rare | $0.29 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Bronzong | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Poltchageist | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Primarina - 020/084 | Rare | $0.28 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Shuppet | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Litwick | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Marshadow | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Annihilape | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Thievul - 054/084 | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Antique Skull Fossil | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Gwynn - 078/084 | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Voltaic Lightning Energy | Rare | $0.28 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Brionne | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Gladion's Final Battle - 077/084 | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Rust Syndicate Grunt - 081/084 | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Fomantis - 003/084 | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Sinistcha | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Wailmer | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Banette | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Nickit | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Mabosstiff | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Trumbeak | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Backtrack Badge | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Voltaic Lightning Energy | Rare | $0.26 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Centiskorch | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Manectric - 024/084 | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Slowbro - 030/084 | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Mankey | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Mandibuzz | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Skarmory | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Fossil Quarry | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Armarouge - 012/084 | Rare | $0.24 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Malamar | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Type: Null | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Antique Armor Fossil | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Dark Bell - 075/084 | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Misty's Vitality - 080/084 | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Sizzlipede | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Relicanth | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Palafin | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Charjabug | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Jynx | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Jett | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Shadowy Darkness Energy | Rare | $0.23 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Tropius | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Heatran | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Armarouge - 012/084 | Rare | $0.22 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Electrike | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Primeape | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Vullaby | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Shieldon | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Shieldon | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Pikipek | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Toucannon - 068/084 | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Bombirdier | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Tremendous Bomb - 082/084 | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Bronzor | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Gwynn - 078/084 | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Charcadet | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Cranidos | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Seaking | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Popplio | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Chi-Yu | Rare | $0.19 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Silvally - 070/084 | Rare | $0.19 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Shadowy Darkness Energy | Rare | $0.19 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Sinistcha | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Vikavolt | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Spiritomb | Rare | $0.18 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Antique Armor Fossil | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Dark Bell - 075/084 | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Misty's Vitality - 080/084 | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Poltchageist | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Goldeen - 013/084 | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Wailmer | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Brionne | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Primarina - 020/084 | Rare | $0.17 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Miraidon | Rare | $0.17 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Shuppet | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Litwick | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Annihilape | Uncommon | $0.17 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Mankey | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Cranidos | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Bastiodon - 062/084 | Rare | $0.17 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Pikipek | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Antique Skull Fossil | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Fossil Quarry | Uncommon | $0.17 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Grubbin | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Fomantis - 003/084 | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Dhelmise - 039/084 | Uncommon | $0.16 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Primeape | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Trumbeak | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Rust Syndicate Grunt - 081/084 | Uncommon | $0.16 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Manectric - 024/084 | Uncommon | $0.15 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Slowpoke | Common | $0.15 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Banette | Uncommon | $0.15 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Zarude | Rare | $0.15 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Toucannon - 068/084 | Uncommon | $0.15 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Type: Null | Common | $0.15 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Tremendous Bomb - 082/084 | Uncommon | $0.15 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Charcadet | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Lampent | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Koraidon | Rare | $0.14 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Backtrack Badge | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Sizzlipede | Common | $0.13 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Charjabug | Common | $0.13 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Jynx | Common | $0.13 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Marshadow | Uncommon | $0.13 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Gladion's Final Battle - 077/084 | Uncommon | $0.13 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Popplio | Common | $0.12 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Electrike | Common | $0.12 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Slowbro - 030/084 | Uncommon | $0.12 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Centiskorch | Common | $0.11 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Drilbur | Common | $0.11 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Inkay | Common | $0.11 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Nickit | Common | $0.11 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Thievul - 054/084 | Uncommon | $0.11 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Heatran | Uncommon | $0.10 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Relicanth | Uncommon | $0.10 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Vikavolt | Uncommon | $0.10 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Mabosstiff | Common | $0.10 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Bronzong | Uncommon | $0.10 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Jett | Uncommon | $0.10 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Tropius | Common | $0.09 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Goldeen - 013/084 | Common | $0.09 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Palafin | Uncommon | $0.09 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Vullaby | Common | $0.09 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Skarmory | Common | $0.09 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Bronzor | Common | $0.09 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Grubbin | Common | $0.08 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Seaking | Uncommon | $0.08 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Finizen | Common | $0.08 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Mandibuzz | Common | $0.08 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Malamar | Uncommon | $0.08 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Maschiff | Common | $0.08 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Bombirdier | Common | $0.07 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |