A $5.35 Pitch Black pack returns $2.94 in expected card value on average — 55% of what you paid.
These odds are TCGPlayer's own published figures for Pitch Black, from a 4,000-pack sample opened and counted by their Authentication Center.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pitch Black Booster Box | $192.46 | $105.67 | 55% |
| Pitch Black Booster Pack | $6.08 | $2.94 | 48% |
| Pitch Black Booster Bundle | $41.13 | $17.61 | 43% |
| Pitch Black 3-Pack Blister [Binacle] | $20.67 | $8.81 | 43% |
| Pitch Black Sleeved Booster Pack | $7.14 | $2.94 | 41% |
| Pitch Black Elite Trainer Box | $71.74 | $26.42 | 37% |
| Pitch Black Single Pack Blister [Slowpoke] | $9.02 | $2.94 | 33% |
| Pitch Black Build & Battle Box | $38.03 | $11.74 | 31% |
| Pitch Black Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box (Exclusive) | $116.08 | $26.42 | 23% |
| Pitch Black Premium Checklane Blister [Amaura, Aurorus] (Target Exclusive) | $17.07 | $2.94 | 17% |
| Pitch Black Premium Checklane Blister [Luxray Line] | $18.14 | $2.94 | 16% |
| Pitch Black Premium Checklane Blister [Tyrunt, Tyrantrum] (Target Exclusive) | $19.00 | $2.94 | 15% |
| Pitch Black Premium Checklane Blister [Gengar Line] | $22.95 | $2.94 | 13% |
| Pitch Black Half Booster Boxes | — | $52.84 | TBD |
Pitch Black Booster Box · Pitch Black Booster Pack · Pitch Black Booster Bundle · Pitch Black 3-Pack Blister [Binacle] · Pitch Black Sleeved Booster Pack · Pitch Black Elite Trainer Box · Pitch Black Single Pack Blister [Slowpoke] · Pitch Black Build & Battle Box · Pitch Black Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box (Exclusive) · Pitch Black Premium Checklane Blister [Amaura, Aurorus] (Target Exclusive) · Pitch Black Premium Checklane Blister [Luxray Line] · Pitch Black Premium Checklane Blister [Tyrunt, Tyrantrum] (Target Exclusive) · Pitch Black Premium Checklane Blister [Gengar Line] · Pitch Black Half Booster Boxes
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Box | $5.35 | 55% |
| Booster Pack | $6.08 | 48% |
| Booster Bundle | $6.86 | 43% |
| Elite Trainer Box | $7.97 | 37% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Mega Hyper Rare | 0.09% | n=4000 |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1.25% | n=4000 |
| Ultra Rare | 8.3% | n=4000 |
| Illustration Rare | 11.01% | n=4000 |
| Double Rare | 21.02% | n=4000 |
| Rare | 71.43% | |
| Common | 400% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Darkrai ex - 116/084 | Special Illustration Rare | $170.52 | 1 in 480 (0.21%) | $2566.13 |
| Mega Darkrai ex - 120/084 | Mega Hyper Rare | $146.36 | 1 in 1111 (0.09%) | $5940.12 |
| Morpeko ex - 117/084 | Special Illustration Rare | $70.06 | 1 in 480 (0.21%) | $2566.13 |
| Mega Zeraora ex - 114/084 | Special Illustration Rare | $47.71 | 1 in 480 (0.21%) | $2566.13 |
| Mega Chandelure ex - 115/084 | Special Illustration Rare | $38.48 | 1 in 480 (0.21%) | $2566.13 |
| Gwynn - 119/084 | Special Illustration Rare | $28.65 | 1 in 480 (0.21%) | $2566.13 |
| Gladion's Final Battle - 118/084 | Special Illustration Rare | $25.57 | 1 in 480 (0.21%) | $2566.13 |
| Misty's Vitality - 111/084 | Ultra Rare | $9.70 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1159.40 |
| Gwynn - 109/084 | Ultra Rare | $7.80 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1159.40 |
| Mega Darkrai ex - 101/084 | Ultra Rare | $7.41 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1159.40 |
| Slowbro - 090/084 | Illustration Rare | $7.08 | 1 in 100 (1%) | $534.13 |
| Mega Chandelure ex - 099/084 | Ultra Rare | $6.72 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1159.40 |
| Mega Excadrill ex - 103/084 | Ultra Rare | $5.47 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1159.40 |
| Mega Zeraora ex - 098/084 | Ultra Rare | $5.36 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1159.40 |
| Crushing Hammer | Ultra Rare | $4.87 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1159.40 |
| Goldeen - 087/084 | Illustration Rare | $4.42 | 1 in 100 (1%) | $534.13 |
| Wailord ex - 097/084 | Ultra Rare | $4.27 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1159.40 |
| Morpeko ex - 102/084 | Ultra Rare | $3.13 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1159.40 |
| Rampardos ex - 100/084 | Ultra Rare | $2.93 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1159.40 |
| Brave Bangle | Ultra Rare | $2.80 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1159.40 |
| Primarina - 088/084 | Illustration Rare | $2.73 | 1 in 100 (1%) | $534.13 |
| Armarouge - 086/084 | Illustration Rare | $2.68 | 1 in 100 (1%) | $534.13 |
| Gladion's Final Battle - 108/084 | Ultra Rare | $2.49 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1159.40 |
| Dhelmise - 091/084 | Illustration Rare | $2.43 | 1 in 100 (1%) | $534.13 |
| Fomantis - 085/084 | Illustration Rare | $2.22 | 1 in 100 (1%) | $534.13 |
| Lurantis ex - 096/084 | Ultra Rare | $2.14 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1159.40 |
| Dark Bell - 106/084 | Ultra Rare | $1.95 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1159.40 |
| Rust Syndicate Grunt - 112/084 | Ultra Rare | $1.94 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1159.40 |
| Manectric - 089/084 | Illustration Rare | $1.83 | 1 in 100 (1%) | $534.13 |
| Energy Switch | Ultra Rare | $1.83 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1159.40 |
| Thievul - 092/084 | Illustration Rare | $1.55 | 1 in 100 (1%) | $534.13 |
| Toucannon - 094/084 | Illustration Rare | $1.54 | 1 in 100 (1%) | $534.13 |
| Bastiodon - 093/084 | Illustration Rare | $1.44 | 1 in 100 (1%) | $534.13 |
| Silvally - 095/084 | Illustration Rare | $1.43 | 1 in 100 (1%) | $534.13 |
| Tremendous Bomb - 113/084 | Ultra Rare | $1.26 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1159.40 |
| Iron Defender | Ultra Rare | $1.06 | 1 in 217 (0.46%) | $1159.40 |
| Mega Chandelure ex - 038/084 | Double Rare | $0.71 | 1 in 48 (2.1%) | $254.33 |
| Mega Darkrai ex - 048/084 | Double Rare | $0.68 | 1 in 48 (2.1%) | $254.33 |
| Wailord ex - 016/084 | Double Rare | $0.64 | 1 in 48 (2.1%) | $254.33 |
| Morpeko ex - 055/084 | Double Rare | $0.62 | 1 in 48 (2.1%) | $254.33 |
| Mega Zeraora ex - 027/084 | Double Rare | $0.61 | 1 in 48 (2.1%) | $254.33 |
| Mega Excadrill ex - 065/084 | Double Rare | $0.59 | 1 in 48 (2.1%) | $254.33 |
| Mega Delphox ex | Double Rare | $0.58 | 1 in 48 (2.1%) | $254.33 |
| Mega Slowbro ex | Double Rare | $0.57 | 1 in 48 (2.1%) | $254.33 |
| Lurantis ex - 004/084 | Double Rare | $0.50 | 1 in 48 (2.1%) | $254.33 |
| Rampardos ex - 045/084 | Double Rare | $0.48 | 1 in 48 (2.1%) | $254.33 |
| Bastiodon - 062/084 | Rare | $0.35 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Silvally - 070/084 | Rare | $0.33 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Chi-Yu | Rare | $0.32 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Gwynn - 078/084 | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Miraidon | Rare | $0.31 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Shuppet | Common | $0.30 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Primarina - 020/084 | Rare | $0.28 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Banette | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Marshadow | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Fossil Quarry | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Slowbro - 030/084 | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Trumbeak | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Antique Armor Fossil | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Misty's Vitality - 080/084 | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Finizen | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Koraidon | Rare | $0.26 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Mandibuzz | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Malamar | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Voltaic Lightning Energy | Rare | $0.26 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Jynx | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Spiritomb | Rare | $0.25 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Drilbur | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Vullaby | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Inkay | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Nickit | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Maschiff | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Dark Bell - 075/084 | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Gladion's Final Battle - 077/084 | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Shadowy Darkness Energy | Rare | $0.25 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Armarouge - 012/084 | Rare | $0.24 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Slowpoke | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Litwick | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Annihilape | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Primeape | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Thievul - 054/084 | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Mabosstiff | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Pikipek | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Fomantis - 003/084 | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Goldeen - 013/084 | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Wailmer | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Manectric - 024/084 | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Skarmory | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Shieldon | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Charcadet | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Brionne | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Dhelmise - 039/084 | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Mankey | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Zarude | Rare | $0.22 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Toucannon - 068/084 | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Jett | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Tremendous Bomb - 082/084 | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Poltchageist | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Armarouge - 012/084 | Rare | $0.21 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Relicanth | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Vikavolt | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Cranidos | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Bastiodon - 062/084 | Rare | $0.21 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Shadowy Darkness Energy | Rare | $0.21 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Heatran | Uncommon | $0.20 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Popplio | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Lampent | Uncommon | $0.20 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Antique Skull Fossil | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Grubbin | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Primarina - 020/084 | Rare | $0.19 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Bombirdier | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Backtrack Badge | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Rust Syndicate Grunt - 081/084 | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Sinistcha | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Sizzlipede | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Centiskorch | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Electrike | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Bronzor | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Bronzong | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Type: Null | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Silvally - 070/084 | Rare | $0.18 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Dark Bell - 075/084 | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Voltaic Lightning Energy | Rare | $0.18 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Tropius | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Seaking | Uncommon | $0.17 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Miraidon | Rare | $0.17 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Gwynn - 078/084 | Uncommon | $0.17 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Misty's Vitality - 080/084 | Uncommon | $0.17 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Wailmer | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Koraidon | Rare | $0.16 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Fossil Quarry | Uncommon | $0.16 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Charjabug | Common | $0.15 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Shuppet | Common | $0.15 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Banette | Uncommon | $0.15 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Litwick | Common | $0.15 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Cranidos | Common | $0.15 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Chi-Yu | Rare | $0.15 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Palafin | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Mankey | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Antique Skull Fossil | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Rust Syndicate Grunt - 081/084 | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Poltchageist | Common | $0.13 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Marshadow | Uncommon | $0.13 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Zarude | Rare | $0.13 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Trumbeak | Common | $0.13 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Antique Armor Fossil | Common | $0.13 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Backtrack Badge | Uncommon | $0.13 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Fomantis - 003/084 | Common | $0.12 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Popplio | Common | $0.12 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Slowpoke | Common | $0.12 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Spiritomb | Rare | $0.12 | 1 in 15 (6.49%) | $81.38 |
| Gladion's Final Battle - 077/084 | Uncommon | $0.12 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Tremendous Bomb - 082/084 | Uncommon | $0.12 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Sinistcha | Uncommon | $0.11 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Finizen | Common | $0.11 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Jynx | Common | $0.11 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Dhelmise - 039/084 | Uncommon | $0.11 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Toucannon - 068/084 | Uncommon | $0.11 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Type: Null | Common | $0.11 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Manectric - 024/084 | Uncommon | $0.10 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Lampent | Uncommon | $0.10 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Shieldon | Common | $0.10 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Pikipek | Common | $0.10 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Relicanth | Uncommon | $0.09 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Brionne | Common | $0.09 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Slowbro - 030/084 | Uncommon | $0.09 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Annihilape | Uncommon | $0.09 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Drilbur | Common | $0.09 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Inkay | Common | $0.09 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Jett | Uncommon | $0.09 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Goldeen - 013/084 | Common | $0.08 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Electrike | Common | $0.08 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Charjabug | Common | $0.08 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Primeape | Common | $0.08 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Mandibuzz | Common | $0.08 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Nickit | Common | $0.08 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Grubbin | Common | $0.07 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Heatran | Uncommon | $0.07 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Charcadet | Common | $0.07 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Vullaby | Common | $0.07 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Malamar | Uncommon | $0.07 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Tropius | Common | $0.06 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Seaking | Uncommon | $0.06 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Mabosstiff | Common | $0.06 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Centiskorch | Common | $0.05 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Palafin | Uncommon | $0.05 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Vikavolt | Uncommon | $0.05 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Thievul - 054/084 | Uncommon | $0.05 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |
| Skarmory | Common | $0.05 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Bronzor | Common | $0.05 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Bombirdier | Common | $0.04 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Maschiff | Common | $0.03 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Sizzlipede | Common | $0.02 | 1 in 9 (10.81%) | $48.88 |
| Bronzong | Uncommon | $0.02 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $45.80 |