A $537.50 Neo Discovery pack returns $110.15 in expected card value on average — 20% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers Neo Discovery, so these odds come from thepricedex.com, which discloses a disclosed sample. Sources that do not state how many packs they counted are not used here, however confident they sound.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neo Discovery Booster Pack [Unlimited Edition] | $537.50 | $110.15 | 20% |
| Neo Discovery 2-Pack Blister [Unlimited Edition] | — | $220.29 | TBD |
| Neo Discovery Booster Pack [1st Edition] | — | $110.15 | TBD |
Neo Discovery Booster Pack [Unlimited Edition] · Neo Discovery 2-Pack Blister [Unlimited Edition] · Neo Discovery Booster Pack [1st Edition]
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $537.50 | 20% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Holo Rare | 33.33% | |
| Rare | 66.67% | |
| Common | 700% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umbreon (13) | Holo Rare | $752.74 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Tyranitar (12) | Holo Rare | $450.00 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Espeon (1) | Holo Rare | $365.17 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Umbreon (32) | Rare | $300.00 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Wobbuffet (16) | Holo Rare | $250.00 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Houndour (5) | Holo Rare | $249.99 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Espeon (1) | Holo Rare | $237.50 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Scizor (10) | Holo Rare | $199.00 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Politoed (8) | Holo Rare | $195.10 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Houndoom (4) | Holo Rare | $190.00 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Yanma (17) | Holo Rare | $169.99 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Hitmontop (3) | Holo Rare | $161.45 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Ursaring (15) | Holo Rare | $154.99 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Tyranitar (12) | Holo Rare | $142.27 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Kabutops (6) | Holo Rare | $132.47 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Smeargle (11) | Holo Rare | $120.83 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Espeon (20) | Rare | $116.09 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Umbreon (32) | Rare | $105.78 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Houndour (5) | Holo Rare | $93.91 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Tyranitar (31) | Rare | $90.30 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Kabutops (6) | Holo Rare | $89.42 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Houndoom (4) | Holo Rare | $87.49 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Unown [A] (14) | Holo Rare | $84.99 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Magnemite (7) | Holo Rare | $81.99 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Politoed (8) | Holo Rare | $81.75 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Scizor (10) | Holo Rare | $76.31 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Forretress (2) | Holo Rare | $64.99 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Smeargle (11) | Holo Rare | $59.71 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Poliwrath (9) | Holo Rare | $48.35 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Ursaring (15) | Holo Rare | $45.67 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Houndour (24) | Rare | $40.84 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Scizor (29) | Rare | $38.10 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Eevee | Uncommon | $36.42 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Houndoom (23) | Rare | $35.55 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Poliwrath (9) | Holo Rare | $35.50 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Wobbuffet (16) | Holo Rare | $34.99 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Magnemite (7) | Holo Rare | $34.70 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Kabutops (25) | Rare | $34.15 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Politoed (27) | Rare | $32.39 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Espeon (20) | Rare | $32.33 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Forretress (2) | Holo Rare | $32.32 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Corsola | Uncommon | $31.48 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Butterfree | Rare | $30.65 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Beedrill | Rare | $26.44 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Yanma (17) | Holo Rare | $26.43 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Smeargle (30) | Rare | $25.91 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Tyranitar (31) | Rare | $23.94 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Hitmontop (3) | Holo Rare | $20.92 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Unown [A] (14) | Holo Rare | $20.86 | 1 in 51 (1.96%) | TBD |
| Politoed (27) | Rare | $20.49 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Unown [A] (33) | Rare | $19.48 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Wooper | Common | $17.69 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Igglybuff | Uncommon | $17.63 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Wobbuffet (35) | Rare | $17.59 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Poliwrath (28) | Rare | $17.14 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Houndoom (23) | Rare | $17.10 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Ursaring (34) | Rare | $16.70 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Houndour (24) | Rare | $16.21 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Hitmontop (22) | Rare | $15.84 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Scizor (29) | Rare | $14.67 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Omanyte | Common | $14.47 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Forretress (21) | Rare | $14.36 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Magnemite (26) | Rare | $13.82 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Kabuto | Common | $13.05 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Poliwhirl | Uncommon | $12.91 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Yanma (36) | Rare | $12.53 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Kabutops (25) | Rare | $11.78 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Beedrill | Rare | $11.66 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Houndour (39) | Uncommon | $11.18 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Scyther | Uncommon | $10.87 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Smeargle (30) | Rare | $9.89 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Eevee | Uncommon | $9.31 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Unown [A] (33) | Rare | $9.31 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Corsola | Uncommon | $8.96 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Metapod | Uncommon | $8.35 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Caterpie | Common | $8.01 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Poliwag | Common | $7.90 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Forretress (21) | Rare | $7.60 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Magnemite (26) | Rare | $7.53 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Poliwrath (28) | Rare | $7.41 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Yanma (36) | Rare | $7.30 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Unown [N] | Uncommon | $7.02 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Ursaring (34) | Rare | $6.33 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Pupitar | Uncommon | $6.30 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Hitmontop (22) | Rare | $6.12 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Unown [M] | Uncommon | $5.93 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Teddiursa | Common | $5.78 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Igglybuff | Uncommon | $5.56 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Wobbuffet (35) | Rare | $5.22 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Unown [U] | Uncommon | $5.11 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Unown [F] | Uncommon | $4.58 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Kakuna | Uncommon | $4.49 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Omastar | Uncommon | $4.40 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Butterfree | Rare | $4.02 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | TBD |
| Weedle | Common | $3.92 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Mareep | Common | $3.82 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Pineco | Common | $3.71 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Unown [D] | Uncommon | $3.66 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Larvitar | Common | $3.45 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Natu | Common | $3.40 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Tyrogue | Common | $3.29 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Omanyte | Common | $3.00 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Unown [E] | Common | $2.98 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Xatu | Uncommon | $2.95 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Houndour (39) | Uncommon | $2.89 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Dunsparce | Common | $2.87 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Poliwhirl | Uncommon | $2.83 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Wooper | Common | $2.77 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Unown [O] | Common | $2.76 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Unown [I] | Common | $2.75 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Hoppip | Common | $2.69 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Spinarak | Common | $2.69 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Kabuto | Common | $2.47 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Ruin Wall | Uncommon | $2.38 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Caterpie | Common | $2.30 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Unown [F] | Uncommon | $2.12 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Unown [D] | Uncommon | $1.91 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Hyper Devolution Spray | Uncommon | $1.87 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Unown [U] | Uncommon | $1.87 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Sentret | Common | $1.86 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Scyther | Uncommon | $1.83 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Fossil Egg | Uncommon | $1.81 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Unown [M] | Uncommon | $1.65 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Pupitar | Uncommon | $1.57 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Unown [N] | Uncommon | $1.45 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Metapod | Uncommon | $1.41 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Omastar | Uncommon | $1.32 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Mareep | Common | $1.30 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Tyrogue | Common | $1.19 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Poliwag | Common | $1.08 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Teddiursa | Common | $0.99 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Kakuna | Uncommon | $0.97 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Xatu | Uncommon | $0.96 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Spinarak | Common | $0.94 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Fossil Egg | Uncommon | $0.86 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Pineco | Common | $0.86 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Energy Ark | Common | $0.81 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Unown [O] | Common | $0.81 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Weedle | Common | $0.78 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Unown [E] | Common | $0.75 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Unown [I] | Common | $0.72 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Hoppip | Common | $0.67 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Dunsparce | Common | $0.66 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Hyper Devolution Spray | Uncommon | $0.61 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Larvitar | Common | $0.61 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Sentret | Common | $0.61 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Natu | Common | $0.56 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |
| Ruin Wall | Uncommon | $0.55 | 1 in 6 (15.79%) | TBD |
| Energy Ark | Common | $0.42 | 1 in 3 (35%) | TBD |