A $632.49 Neo Genesis pack returns $79.39 in expected card value on average — 13% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers Neo Genesis, so these odds come from elitefourum.com, which discloses a 432-pack sample. Sources that do not state how many packs they counted are not used here, however confident they sound.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neo Genesis Booster Pack [Unlimited Edition] | $632.49 | $79.39 | 13% |
| Neo Genesis Booster Box [Unlimited Edition] | — | $2857.87 | TBD |
| Neo Genesis Booster Box [1st Edition] | — | $2857.87 | TBD |
| Neo Genesis Booster Pack [1st Edition] | — | $79.39 | TBD |
Neo Genesis Booster Pack [Unlimited Edition] · Neo Genesis Booster Box [Unlimited Edition] · Neo Genesis Booster Box [1st Edition] · Neo Genesis Booster Pack [1st Edition]
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $632.49 | 13% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Holo Rare | 33.33% | n=432 |
| Rare | 66.67% | |
| Common | 600% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Typhlosion (18) | Holo Rare | $699.99 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Lugia | Holo Rare | $531.39 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Typhlosion (17) | Holo Rare | $475.00 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Pichu | Holo Rare | $257.57 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Meganium (11) | Holo Rare | $234.46 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Slowking | Holo Rare | $227.15 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Feraligatr (5) | Holo Rare | $215.17 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Heracross | Holo Rare | $211.26 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Feraligatr (4) | Holo Rare | $204.46 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Typhlosion (17) | Holo Rare | $201.63 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Lugia | Holo Rare | $164.80 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Feraligatr (5) | Holo Rare | $150.13 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Meganium (10) | Holo Rare | $146.89 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Togetic | Holo Rare | $145.00 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Typhlosion (18) | Holo Rare | $144.84 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Feraligatr (4) | Holo Rare | $132.66 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Pichu | Holo Rare | $131.86 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Kingdra | Holo Rare | $124.00 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Steelix | Holo Rare | $121.90 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Azumarill | Holo Rare | $110.32 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Meganium (11) | Holo Rare | $105.34 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Ampharos | Holo Rare | $98.69 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Skarmory | Holo Rare | $98.24 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Bellossom | Holo Rare | $91.32 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Jumpluff | Holo Rare | $85.50 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Slowking | Holo Rare | $79.68 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Meganium (10) | Holo Rare | $74.76 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Steelix | Holo Rare | $52.61 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Heracross | Holo Rare | $47.04 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Togetic | Holo Rare | $44.58 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Ampharos | Holo Rare | $40.13 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Pikachu | Common | $38.57 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Togepi | Uncommon | $33.70 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Skarmory | Holo Rare | $32.89 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Azumarill | Holo Rare | $28.25 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Metal Energy | Holo Rare | $27.52 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Bellossom | Holo Rare | $27.20 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Clefairy | Uncommon | $23.34 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Cleffa | Rare | $23.00 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Sneasel | Rare | $22.23 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Kingdra | Holo Rare | $21.80 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Elekid | Rare | $20.96 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Focus Band | Rare | $17.06 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Cyndaquil (56) | Common | $16.71 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Metal Energy | Holo Rare | $16.59 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Slowpoke | Common | $16.12 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Cleffa | Rare | $15.15 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Magby | Rare | $14.96 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Cyndaquil (57) | Common | $14.04 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Totodile (80) | Common | $13.69 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Miltank | Uncommon | $13.26 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Pikachu | Common | $13.05 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Bayleef (28) | Uncommon | $12.10 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Focus Band | Rare | $11.66 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Jumpluff | Holo Rare | $11.53 | 1 in 57 (1.75%) | TBD |
| Quilava (47) | Uncommon | $10.91 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Darkness Energy | Rare | $10.88 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Totodile (81) | Common | $10.72 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Noctowl | Uncommon | $10.19 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Arcade Game (Goldenrod Game Corner) | Rare | $9.82 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Murkrow | Rare | $9.80 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Togepi | Uncommon | $9.73 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Wooper | Common | $9.72 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Quilava (46) | Uncommon | $9.08 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Quagsire | Uncommon | $8.73 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Pokemon March | Common | $8.64 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Furret | Uncommon | $8.58 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Sneasel | Rare | $8.11 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Arcade Game (Goldenrod Game Corner) | Rare | $7.83 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Chikorita (53) | Common | $7.72 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Slowpoke | Common | $7.66 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Recycle Energy | Rare | $7.54 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Donphan | Rare | $7.45 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Darkness Energy | Rare | $7.29 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Marill | Common | $7.20 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Flaaffy | Uncommon | $6.85 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Croconaw (31) | Uncommon | $6.74 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Quagsire | Uncommon | $6.66 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Clefairy | Uncommon | $6.18 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Donphan | Rare | $5.98 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Electabuzz | Uncommon | $5.95 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Gloom | Uncommon | $5.93 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Magmar | Uncommon | $5.53 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Bayleef (29) | Uncommon | $5.36 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Recycle Energy | Rare | $5.27 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Chikorita (54) | Common | $5.22 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Aipom | Uncommon | $5.03 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Mary | Rare | $5.01 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Shuckle | Common | $4.98 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Croconaw (32) | Uncommon | $4.85 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Quilava (47) | Uncommon | $4.85 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Sudowoodo | Common | $4.58 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Elekid | Rare | $4.51 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Ariados | Uncommon | $4.31 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Murkrow | Rare | $4.31 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Ecogym | Rare | $4.13 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Flaaffy | Uncommon | $4.10 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Moo-Moo Milk | Common | $4.07 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Sunflora | Uncommon | $4.06 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Noctowl | Uncommon | $3.84 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Horsea | Common | $3.81 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Mary | Rare | $3.75 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Card-Flip Game (Goldenrod Game Corner) | Uncommon | $3.65 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Miltank | Uncommon | $3.57 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Gold Berry | Uncommon | $3.54 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Piloswine | Uncommon | $3.54 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Mareep | Common | $3.51 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Professor Elm | Uncommon | $3.49 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Onix | Common | $3.47 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Super Energy Retrieval | Rare | $3.40 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Bayleef (28) | Uncommon | $3.33 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Quilava (46) | Uncommon | $3.32 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Ecogym | Rare | $3.29 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Phanpy | Uncommon | $3.27 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Double Gust | Common | $3.24 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Seadra | Uncommon | $3.23 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Bayleef (29) | Uncommon | $3.05 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Chikorita (53) | Common | $3.00 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Energy Charge | Rare | $2.99 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Wooper | Common | $2.99 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Magby | Rare | $2.91 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Gold Berry | Uncommon | $2.89 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Time Capsule | Rare | $2.86 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Lanturn | Uncommon | $2.83 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Sentret | Common | $2.82 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Ledian | Uncommon | $2.81 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| PokeGear | Rare | $2.70 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Xatu | Uncommon | $2.68 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| PokeGear | Rare | $2.56 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Aipom | Uncommon | $2.54 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Croconaw (31) | Uncommon | $2.54 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Cyndaquil (57) | Common | $2.54 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Hoothoot | Common | $2.48 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Stantler | Common | $2.47 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Mantine | Common | $2.46 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Ledyba | Common | $2.44 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Girafarig | Common | $2.43 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Swinub | Common | $2.36 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Granbull | Uncommon | $2.35 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Hoppip | Common | $2.35 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Super Energy Retrieval | Rare | $2.35 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Energy Charge | Rare | $2.32 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Sunkern | Common | $2.32 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Skiploom | Uncommon | $2.31 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Snubbull | Common | $2.27 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Sunflora | Uncommon | $2.23 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Gloom | Uncommon | $2.20 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Double Gust | Common | $2.18 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Furret | Uncommon | $2.17 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Oddish | Common | $2.17 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Natu | Common | $2.08 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Chikorita (54) | Common | $1.98 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Super Rod | Common | $1.97 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Gligar | Common | $1.94 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Totodile (80) | Common | $1.90 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Granbull | Uncommon | $1.89 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Cyndaquil (56) | Common | $1.87 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Sprout Tower | Uncommon | $1.87 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Electabuzz | Uncommon | $1.86 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Spinarak | Common | $1.86 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Super Scoop Up | Uncommon | $1.86 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Croconaw (32) | Uncommon | $1.85 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Chinchou | Common | $1.84 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Piloswine | Uncommon | $1.71 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Card-Flip Game (Goldenrod Game Corner) | Uncommon | $1.67 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Xatu | Uncommon | $1.64 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Professor Elm | Uncommon | $1.60 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Totodile (81) | Common | $1.60 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Mareep | Common | $1.58 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Ledian | Uncommon | $1.53 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| New Pokedex | Uncommon | $1.53 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Water Energy | Common | $1.51 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Shuckle | Common | $1.47 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Pokemon March | Common | $1.45 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Seadra | Uncommon | $1.43 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Bill's Teleporter | Uncommon | $1.38 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Psychic Energy | Common | $1.38 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Time Capsule | Rare | $1.37 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | TBD |
| Grass Energy | Common | $1.25 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Phanpy | Uncommon | $1.25 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Sprout Tower | Uncommon | $1.21 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Fire Energy | Common | $1.20 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Hoothoot | Common | $1.20 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Super Scoop Up | Uncommon | $1.17 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Fighting Energy | Common | $1.15 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Sentret | Common | $1.12 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Magmar | Uncommon | $1.10 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Onix | Common | $1.10 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Ledyba | Common | $1.08 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Lightning Energy | Common | $1.08 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Lanturn | Uncommon | $1.06 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Oddish | Common | $1.05 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Ariados | Uncommon | $1.04 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Miracle Berry | Uncommon | $0.97 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Horsea | Common | $0.96 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Moo-Moo Milk | Common | $0.89 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Sunkern | Common | $0.87 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Gligar | Common | $0.84 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Marill | Common | $0.81 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Natu | Common | $0.79 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Super Rod | Common | $0.79 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Skiploom | Uncommon | $0.77 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Snubbull | Common | $0.77 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Sudowoodo | Common | $0.77 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Girafarig | Common | $0.72 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Hoppip | Common | $0.68 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Mantine | Common | $0.67 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Miracle Berry | Uncommon | $0.66 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| New Pokedex | Uncommon | $0.66 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Stantler | Common | $0.66 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Berry | Common | $0.64 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Chinchou | Common | $0.64 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Swinub | Common | $0.63 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Water Energy | Common | $0.59 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Spinarak | Common | $0.56 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Lightning Energy | Common | $0.52 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Bill's Teleporter | Uncommon | $0.51 | 1 in 12 (8.57%) | TBD |
| Grass Energy | Common | $0.44 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Fire Energy | Common | $0.43 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Psychic Energy | Common | $0.40 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Berry | Common | $0.38 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |
| Fighting Energy | Common | $0.36 | 1 in 7 (14.63%) | TBD |