A $168.79 Noble Victories pack returns $20.04 in expected card value on average — 12% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers Noble Victories, so these odds come from elitefourum.com, which discloses a 504-pack sample. Sources that do not state how many packs they counted are not used here, however confident they sound.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Victories Booster Pack | $168.79 | $20.04 | 12% |
| V for Victini Tin | — | $60.11 | TBD |
| Noble Victories Booster Box | — | $721.35 | TBD |
Noble Victories Booster Pack · V for Victini Tin · Noble Victories Booster Box
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $168.79 | 12% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Secret Rare | 1.19% | n=504 |
| Ultra Rare | 5.56% | n=504 |
| Holo Rare | 26.39% | |
| Rare | 66.67% | |
| Common | 500% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N (Supporter) (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $233.09 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $15178.96 |
| Victini (98 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $199.03 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $15178.96 |
| Meowth | Secret Rare | $97.74 | 1 in 84 (1.19%) | $14184.03 |
| Cobalion (100 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $66.03 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $15178.96 |
| Virizion (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $45.29 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $15178.96 |
| Terrakion (99 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $42.95 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $15178.96 |
| Pawniard (81) | Common | $21.26 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Victini (43) | Rare | $19.91 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Chandelure | Rare | $15.87 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| N (Supporter) | Uncommon | $15.69 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Victini (14) | Holo Rare | $13.45 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $8337.93 |
| Chandelure | Rare | $12.81 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Archeops | Rare | $12.15 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Larvesta (19) | Common | $11.95 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Haxorus | Holo Rare | $11.63 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $8337.93 |
| Victini (14) | Holo Rare | $11.38 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $8337.93 |
| Hydreigon | Holo Rare | $11.24 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $8337.93 |
| Archeops | Rare | $11.15 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Victini (43) | Rare | $10.71 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Lampent | Uncommon | $10.53 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Trubbish | Common | $9.79 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Golurk | Rare | $9.33 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Eelektrik | Uncommon | $9.10 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Lilligant | Rare | $7.85 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Garbodor | Uncommon | $7.76 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Litwick (57) | Common | $7.00 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Hydreigon | Holo Rare | $6.96 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $8337.93 |
| Victini (15) | Holo Rare | $6.88 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $8337.93 |
| Tirtouga | Uncommon | $6.39 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Archen | Uncommon | $6.14 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Timburr | Common | $6.03 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Litwick (58) | Common | $6.02 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Tynamo (39) | Common | $5.99 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Tynamo (38) | Common | $5.92 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Blitzle | Common | $5.62 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Carracosta | Rare | $5.49 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Victini (15) | Holo Rare | $5.47 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $8337.93 |
| Carracosta | Rare | $5.45 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Kyurem | Holo Rare | $5.14 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $8337.93 |
| Durant | Uncommon | $5.08 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Landorus | Holo Rare | $4.98 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $8337.93 |
| Emolga | Uncommon | $4.90 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Landorus | Holo Rare | $4.86 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $8337.93 |
| Cofagrigus (47) | Rare | $4.74 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Kyurem | Holo Rare | $4.74 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $8337.93 |
| Jellicent | Rare | $4.69 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Haxorus | Holo Rare | $4.46 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $8337.93 |
| Elgyem (54) | Common | $4.44 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Beheeyem | Rare | $4.34 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Jellicent | Rare | $4.25 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Bisharp (76) | Uncommon | $4.17 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Trubbish | Common | $4.04 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Volcarona | Rare | $3.57 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Elgyem (55) | Common | $3.33 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Gigalith | Rare | $3.20 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Terrakion | Holo Rare | $3.12 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $8337.93 |
| Dwebble | Common | $3.11 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Zweilous | Uncommon | $3.10 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Beheeyem | Rare | $2.95 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Cofagrigus (47) | Rare | $2.90 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Amoonguss | Uncommon | $2.76 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Zebstrika | Rare | $2.69 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Conkeldurr (65) | Rare | $2.63 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Cryogonal (33) | Rare | $2.59 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Conkeldurr (64) | Holo Rare | $2.56 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $8337.93 |
| Mienshao | Uncommon | $2.55 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Audino | Uncommon | $2.48 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Eelektross | Holo Rare | $2.48 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $8337.93 |
| Super Rod | Uncommon | $2.48 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Terrakion | Holo Rare | $2.43 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $8337.93 |
| Cofagrigus (46) | Rare | $2.41 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Seismitoad | Rare | $2.41 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Palpitoad | Uncommon | $2.40 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Super Rod | Uncommon | $2.39 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| N (Supporter) | Uncommon | $2.38 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Golurk | Rare | $2.32 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Lilligant | Rare | $2.32 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Virizion | Holo Rare | $2.31 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $8337.93 |
| Yamask (44) | Common | $2.26 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Conkeldurr (64) | Holo Rare | $2.20 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $8337.93 |
| Bisharp (82) | Holo Rare | $2.16 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $8337.93 |
| Eelektross | Holo Rare | $2.16 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $8337.93 |
| Cofagrigus (46) | Rare | $2.10 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Vanillish | Uncommon | $2.06 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Vanilluxe | Rare | $2.04 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Axew | Common | $2.01 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Cobalion | Holo Rare | $1.99 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $8337.93 |
| Virizion | Holo Rare | $1.98 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $8337.93 |
| Vanilluxe | Rare | $1.97 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Frillish | Common | $1.95 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Bisharp (82) | Holo Rare | $1.92 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $8337.93 |
| Reuniclus (53) | Rare | $1.92 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Timburr | Common | $1.92 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Gurdurr | Uncommon | $1.83 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Duosion | Uncommon | $1.70 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Fraxure | Uncommon | $1.64 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Reuniclus (52) | Rare | $1.63 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Cobalion | Holo Rare | $1.62 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $8337.93 |
| Pawniard (75) | Common | $1.62 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Deino | Common | $1.61 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Tirtouga | Uncommon | $1.59 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Leavanny | Holo Rare | $1.48 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $8337.93 |
| Leavanny | Holo Rare | $1.45 | 1 in 49 (2.03%) | $8337.93 |
| Lampent | Uncommon | $1.42 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Volcarona | Rare | $1.40 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Escavalier | Rare | $1.31 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Larvesta (20) | Common | $1.30 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Blitzle | Common | $1.21 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Stunfisk (68) | Uncommon | $1.21 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Petilil | Common | $1.20 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Swadloon | Uncommon | $1.19 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Accelgor | Rare | $1.17 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Crustle | Uncommon | $1.16 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Heatmor | Uncommon | $1.15 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Xtransceiver | Uncommon | $1.11 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Reuniclus (52) | Rare | $1.09 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Sewaddle | Common | $1.02 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Golett | Common | $0.98 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Archen | Uncommon | $0.97 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Gigalith | Rare | $0.96 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Zweilous | Uncommon | $0.96 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Conkeldurr (65) | Rare | $0.95 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Cryogonal (33) | Rare | $0.94 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Druddigon | Rare | $0.92 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Yamask (45) | Common | $0.89 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Mienfoo | Common | $0.83 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Eelektrik | Uncommon | $0.82 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Solosis | Common | $0.80 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Accelgor | Rare | $0.78 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Cryogonal (32) | Uncommon | $0.78 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Vanillite | Common | $0.78 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Xtransceiver | Uncommon | $0.77 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Reuniclus (53) | Rare | $0.76 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Cover Fossil | Uncommon | $0.75 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Durant | Uncommon | $0.75 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Seismitoad | Rare | $0.74 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Shelmet | Common | $0.73 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Garbodor | Uncommon | $0.72 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Plume Fossil | Uncommon | $0.70 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Vanillish | Uncommon | $0.70 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Simisear | Uncommon | $0.69 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Foongus | Common | $0.66 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Tympole | Common | $0.66 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Amoonguss | Uncommon | $0.64 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Karrablast | Common | $0.64 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Audino | Uncommon | $0.63 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Stunfisk (42) | Common | $0.63 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Pawniard (81) | Common | $0.61 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Escavalier | Rare | $0.58 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Golett | Common | $0.56 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Duosion | Uncommon | $0.55 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Frillish | Common | $0.54 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Zebstrika | Rare | $0.54 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Crustle | Uncommon | $0.53 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Emolga | Uncommon | $0.52 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Gurdurr | Uncommon | $0.52 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Pansear | Common | $0.52 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Stunfisk (68) | Uncommon | $0.48 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Druddigon | Rare | $0.47 | 1 in 33 (3.03%) | $5585.30 |
| Palpitoad | Uncommon | $0.46 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Rocky Helmet | Uncommon | $0.46 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Fraxure | Uncommon | $0.45 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Litwick (57) | Common | $0.44 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Plume Fossil | Uncommon | $0.44 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Eviolite | Uncommon | $0.42 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Litwick (58) | Common | $0.42 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Cryogonal (32) | Uncommon | $0.41 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Swadloon | Uncommon | $0.41 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Elgyem (55) | Common | $0.40 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Heatmor | Uncommon | $0.38 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Mienshao | Uncommon | $0.38 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Bisharp (76) | Uncommon | $0.37 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Pawniard (75) | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Axew | Common | $0.36 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Deino | Common | $0.36 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Tynamo (38) | Common | $0.35 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Tynamo (39) | Common | $0.35 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Dwebble | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Larvesta (19) | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Larvesta (20) | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Cover Fossil | Uncommon | $0.33 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Elgyem (54) | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Solosis | Common | $0.32 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Eviolite | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Petilil | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Vanillite | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Yamask (45) | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Simisear | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Mienfoo | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Sewaddle | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Pansear | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Yamask (44) | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Stunfisk (42) | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Foongus | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Rocky Helmet | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $1692.60 |
| Shelmet | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Karrablast | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |
| Tympole | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1049.41 |