Pokemon GO
A $13.89 Pokemon GO pack returns $6.09 in expected card value on average — 44% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers Pokemon GO, so these odds come from digitaltq.com, which discloses a 371-pack sample. A stated count is the difference between a measured rate and a confident guess, so it is recorded here whenever a source gives one.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
- Pack EV: $6.09
- Cheapest pack: $13.89 (Pokemon GO Poke Ball Tin - Poke Ball)
- Cards: 91 (148 versions)
Products in this set
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pokemon GO Poke Ball Tin - Poke Ball | $41.66 | $18.27 | 44% |
| Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Blissey] | $30.48 | $12.18 | 40% |
| Pokemon GO Booster Pack | $16.00 | $6.09 | 38% |
| Pokemon GO Poke Ball Tin - Ultra Ball | $49.98 | $18.27 | 37% |
| Pokemon GO Tin [Blissey] | $53.07 | $18.27 | 34% |
| Pokemon GO Elite Trainer Box | $166.24 | $54.80 | 33% |
| Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Pikachu] | $40.00 | $12.18 | 30% |
| Pokemon GO Premium Collection [Radiant Eevee] | $170.41 | $48.71 | 29% |
| Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Eevee] | $45.00 | $12.18 | 27% |
| Pokemon GO Tin [Pikachu] | $73.82 | $18.27 | 25% |
| Pokemon GO Tin [Snorlax] | $76.87 | $18.27 | 24% |
| Pokemon GO Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box Plus (Exclusive) | $245.31 | $54.80 | 22% |
| Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Magikarp] | $56.22 | $12.18 | 22% |
| Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Snorlax] | $58.56 | $12.18 | 21% |
| Pokemon GO Poke Ball Tin - Great Ball | — | $18.27 | TBD |
Where to buy
Pokemon GO Poke Ball Tin - Poke Ball · Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Blissey] · Pokemon GO Booster Pack · Pokemon GO Poke Ball Tin - Ultra Ball · Pokemon GO Tin [Blissey] · Pokemon GO Elite Trainer Box · Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Pikachu] · Pokemon GO Premium Collection [Radiant Eevee] · Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Eevee] · Pokemon GO Tin [Pikachu] · Pokemon GO Tin [Snorlax] · Pokemon GO Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box Plus (Exclusive) · Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Magikarp] · Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Snorlax] · Pokemon GO Poke Ball Tin - Great Ball
Expected return by product type
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $16.00 | 38% |
| Elite Trainer Box | $18.47 | 33% |
Pull rates (source: community_estimate)
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Secret Rare | 3.77% | n=371 |
| Radiant Rare | 5.39% | n=371 |
| Ultra Rare | 27.22% | n=371 |
| Holo Rare | 71.43% | |
| Common | 500% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
Cards & odds
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mewtwo V (Alternate Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $48.41 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $867.28 |
| Mewtwo VSTAR (79) (Secret) | Secret Rare | $45.58 | 1 in 265 (0.38%) | $3683.47 |
| Dragonite VSTAR (Secret) | Secret Rare | $40.20 | 1 in 265 (0.38%) | $3683.47 |
| Mewtwo VSTAR (86) (Secret) | Secret Rare | $32.84 | 1 in 265 (0.38%) | $3683.47 |
| Bidoof (Peelable Ditto) | Common | $20.14 | TBD | TBD |
| Radiant Charizard | Radiant Rare | $19.11 | 1 in 56 (1.8%) | $772.91 |
| Dragonite V (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $15.73 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $867.28 |
| Numel (Peelable Ditto) | Common | $15.68 | TBD | TBD |
| Spinarak (Peelable Ditto) | Common | $14.78 | TBD | TBD |
| Melmetal VMAX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $13.53 | 1 in 265 (0.38%) | $3683.47 |
| Radiant Blastoise | Radiant Rare | $12.37 | 1 in 56 (1.8%) | $772.91 |
| Radiant Venusaur | Radiant Rare | $10.03 | 1 in 56 (1.8%) | $772.91 |
| Spark (Secret) | Secret Rare | $8.86 | 1 in 265 (0.38%) | $3683.47 |
| Blanche (Secret) | Secret Rare | $8.71 | 1 in 265 (0.38%) | $3683.47 |
| Professor's Research [Professor Willow] (Secret) | Secret Rare | $8.69 | 1 in 265 (0.38%) | $3683.47 |
| Candela (Secret) | Secret Rare | $7.72 | 1 in 265 (0.38%) | $3683.47 |
| Mewtwo VSTAR | Ultra Rare | $7.15 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $867.28 |
| Mewtwo V | Ultra Rare | $5.52 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $867.28 |
| Dragonite V | Ultra Rare | $4.89 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $867.28 |
| Conkeldurr V (Alternate Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $4.26 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $867.28 |
| Dragonite VSTAR | Ultra Rare | $4.12 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $867.28 |
| Lure Module (Secret) | Secret Rare | $3.11 | 1 in 265 (0.38%) | $3683.47 |
| Egg Incubator (Secret) | Secret Rare | $2.99 | 1 in 265 (0.38%) | $3683.47 |
| Professor's Research [Professor Willow] (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $1.99 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $867.28 |
| Slaking V (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $1.91 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $867.28 |
| Alolan Exeggutor V (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $1.89 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $867.28 |
| Melmetal VMAX | Ultra Rare | $1.65 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $867.28 |
| Conkeldurr V (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $1.53 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $867.28 |
| Melmetal V (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $1.36 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $867.28 |
| Slaking V | Ultra Rare | $0.70 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $867.28 |
| Alolan Exeggutor V | Ultra Rare | $0.68 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $867.28 |
| Melmetal V | Ultra Rare | $0.68 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $867.28 |
| Conkeldurr V | Ultra Rare | $0.67 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $867.28 |
| Ditto | Holo Rare | $5.30 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Charizard | Holo Rare | $4.96 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Charizard | Holo Rare | $4.17 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Snorlax | Holo Rare | $3.11 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Pikachu (28) | Holo Rare | $2.89 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Blastoise | Holo Rare | $2.55 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Snorlax | Holo Rare | $1.96 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Blastoise | Holo Rare | $1.93 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Venusaur | Holo Rare | $1.64 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Pikachu (28) | Holo Rare | $1.64 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Sylveon | Holo Rare | $1.51 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Pikachu (27) | Common | $1.23 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Venusaur | Holo Rare | $1.16 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Sylveon | Holo Rare | $0.85 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Wartortle | Uncommon | $0.82 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Squirtle | Common | $0.81 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Ivysaur | Uncommon | $0.79 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Bulbasaur | Common | $0.75 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Zapdos | Holo Rare | $0.75 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Charmeleon | Uncommon | $0.72 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Gyarados | Holo Rare | $0.71 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Eevee | Common | $0.69 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Charmander | Common | $0.66 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Spinarak | Common | $0.64 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Tyranitar | Holo Rare | $0.58 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Magikarp | Common | $0.57 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Slowpoke | Common | $0.56 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Bidoof | Common | $0.56 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Slowbro | Uncommon | $0.54 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| PokeStop | Uncommon | $0.53 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Articuno | Holo Rare | $0.52 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Chansey | Uncommon | $0.50 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Gyarados | Holo Rare | $0.48 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Alolan Raticate | Common | $0.48 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Lapras | Holo Rare | $0.44 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Rare Candy | Uncommon | $0.43 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Steelix | Uncommon | $0.43 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Bibarel | Common | $0.42 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Zapdos | Holo Rare | $0.41 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Articuno | Holo Rare | $0.41 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Blanche | Uncommon | $0.41 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Aipom | Common | $0.40 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Pidove | Common | $0.40 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Lure Module | Uncommon | $0.40 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Unfezant | Uncommon | $0.39 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Moltres | Holo Rare | $0.38 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Blissey | Holo Rare | $0.38 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Ivysaur | Uncommon | $0.37 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Alolan Rattata | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Moltres | Holo Rare | $0.36 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Larvitar | Common | $0.36 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Tranquill | Common | $0.36 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Squirtle | Common | $0.35 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Golisopod | Holo Rare | $0.34 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Ambipom | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Candela | Uncommon | $0.34 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Bulbasaur | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Solrock | Uncommon | $0.33 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Tyranitar | Holo Rare | $0.33 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Melmetal | Holo Rare | $0.32 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Pikachu (27) | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Numel | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Blissey | Holo Rare | $0.31 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Xatu | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Onix | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Egg Incubator | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Wimpod | Common | $0.30 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Pupitar | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| PokeStop | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Charmeleon | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Wartortle | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Ariados | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Lapras | Holo Rare | $0.29 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Natu | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Lunatone | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Spark | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Meltan | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Charmander | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Camerupt | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Golisopod | Holo Rare | $0.25 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Slowpoke | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Eevee | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Numel | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Chansey | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Aipom | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Melmetal | Holo Rare | $0.22 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Rare Candy | Uncommon | $0.20 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Camerupt | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Egg Incubator | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Magikarp | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Unfezant | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Solrock | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Spinarak | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Slowbro | Uncommon | $0.17 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Lunatone | Uncommon | $0.17 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Bibarel | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Blanche | Uncommon | $0.16 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Lure Module | Uncommon | $0.16 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Steelix | Uncommon | $0.16 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Larvitar | Common | $0.15 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Pupitar | Uncommon | $0.15 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Spark | Uncommon | $0.15 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Alolan Rattata | Common | $0.15 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Wimpod | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Natu | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Xatu | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Candela | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Meltan | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Ariados | Uncommon | $0.13 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Bidoof | Common | $0.13 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Alolan Raticate | Common | $0.13 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Onix | Common | $0.12 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Ambipom | Common | $0.11 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Pidove | Common | $0.11 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Tranquill | Common | $0.11 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |