A $10.83 Pokemon GO pack returns $6.40 in expected card value on average — 59% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers Pokemon GO, so these odds come from digitaltq.com, which discloses a 371-pack sample. Sources that do not state how many packs they counted are not used here, however confident they sound.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pokemon GO Poke Ball Tin - Poke Ball | $32.50 | $19.21 | 59% |
| Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Blissey] | $27.93 | $12.81 | 46% |
| Pokemon GO Booster Pack | $14.50 | $6.40 | 44% |
| Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Pikachu] | $32.00 | $12.81 | 40% |
| Pokemon GO Tin [Blissey] | $49.36 | $19.21 | 39% |
| Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Eevee] | $34.77 | $12.81 | 37% |
| Pokemon GO Elite Trainer Box | $170.47 | $57.62 | 34% |
| Pokemon GO Premium Collection [Radiant Eevee] | $166.99 | $51.22 | 31% |
| Pokemon GO Tin [Pikachu] | $71.60 | $19.21 | 27% |
| Pokemon GO Tin [Snorlax] | $71.63 | $19.21 | 27% |
| Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Magikarp] | $48.56 | $12.81 | 26% |
| Pokemon GO Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box Plus (Exclusive) | $235.31 | $57.62 | 24% |
| Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Snorlax] | $54.44 | $12.81 | 24% |
| Pokemon GO Poke Ball Tin - Great Ball | — | $19.21 | TBD |
| Pokemon GO Poke Ball Tin - Ultra Ball | — | $19.21 | TBD |
Pokemon GO Poke Ball Tin - Poke Ball · Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Blissey] · Pokemon GO Booster Pack · Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Pikachu] · Pokemon GO Tin [Blissey] · Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Eevee] · Pokemon GO Elite Trainer Box · Pokemon GO Premium Collection [Radiant Eevee] · Pokemon GO Tin [Pikachu] · Pokemon GO Tin [Snorlax] · Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Magikarp] · Pokemon GO Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box Plus (Exclusive) · Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Snorlax] · Pokemon GO Poke Ball Tin - Great Ball · Pokemon GO Poke Ball Tin - Ultra Ball
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $14.50 | 44% |
| Elite Trainer Box | $18.94 | 34% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Secret Rare | 3.77% | n=371 |
| Radiant Rare | 5.39% | n=371 |
| Ultra Rare | 27.22% | n=371 |
| Holo Rare | 71.43% | |
| Common | 500% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mewtwo V (Alternate Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $57.45 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $676.59 |
| Mewtwo VSTAR (79) (Secret) | Secret Rare | $54.95 | 1 in 265 (0.38%) | $2873.56 |
| Dragonite VSTAR (Secret) | Secret Rare | $47.99 | 1 in 265 (0.38%) | $2873.56 |
| Mewtwo VSTAR (86) (Secret) | Secret Rare | $35.45 | 1 in 265 (0.38%) | $2873.56 |
| Radiant Charizard | Radiant Rare | $19.01 | 1 in 56 (1.8%) | $602.97 |
| Bidoof (Peelable Ditto) | Common | $17.48 | TBD | TBD |
| Dragonite V (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $15.67 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $676.59 |
| Spinarak (Peelable Ditto) | Common | $15.33 | TBD | TBD |
| Numel (Peelable Ditto) | Common | $14.01 | TBD | TBD |
| Melmetal VMAX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $12.11 | 1 in 265 (0.38%) | $2873.56 |
| Radiant Blastoise | Radiant Rare | $10.62 | 1 in 56 (1.8%) | $602.97 |
| Professor's Research [Professor Willow] (Secret) | Secret Rare | $9.14 | 1 in 265 (0.38%) | $2873.56 |
| Spark (Secret) | Secret Rare | $8.98 | 1 in 265 (0.38%) | $2873.56 |
| Mewtwo VSTAR | Ultra Rare | $8.52 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $676.59 |
| Blanche (Secret) | Secret Rare | $8.14 | 1 in 265 (0.38%) | $2873.56 |
| Radiant Venusaur | Radiant Rare | $8.13 | 1 in 56 (1.8%) | $602.97 |
| Candela (Secret) | Secret Rare | $7.89 | 1 in 265 (0.38%) | $2873.56 |
| Mewtwo V | Ultra Rare | $5.22 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $676.59 |
| Conkeldurr V (Alternate Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $4.53 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $676.59 |
| Dragonite V | Ultra Rare | $4.18 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $676.59 |
| Dragonite VSTAR | Ultra Rare | $3.90 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $676.59 |
| Egg Incubator (Secret) | Secret Rare | $3.27 | 1 in 265 (0.38%) | $2873.56 |
| Alolan Exeggutor V (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $2.67 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $676.59 |
| Lure Module (Secret) | Secret Rare | $2.29 | 1 in 265 (0.38%) | $2873.56 |
| Professor's Research [Professor Willow] (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $2.28 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $676.59 |
| Slaking V (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $1.89 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $676.59 |
| Melmetal VMAX | Ultra Rare | $1.70 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $676.59 |
| Conkeldurr V (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $1.69 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $676.59 |
| Melmetal V (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $1.57 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $676.59 |
| Alolan Exeggutor V | Ultra Rare | $0.80 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $676.59 |
| Slaking V | Ultra Rare | $0.74 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $676.59 |
| Melmetal V | Ultra Rare | $0.74 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $676.59 |
| Conkeldurr V | Ultra Rare | $0.69 | 1 in 62 (1.6%) | $676.59 |
| Charizard | Holo Rare | $5.40 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Ditto | Holo Rare | $5.40 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Charizard | Holo Rare | $3.68 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Snorlax | Holo Rare | $3.26 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Blastoise | Holo Rare | $2.90 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Pikachu (28) | Holo Rare | $2.82 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Blastoise | Holo Rare | $2.17 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Venusaur | Holo Rare | $2.07 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Snorlax | Holo Rare | $1.94 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Pikachu (28) | Holo Rare | $1.80 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Venusaur | Holo Rare | $1.52 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Sylveon | Holo Rare | $1.14 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Pikachu (27) | Common | $1.12 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Squirtle | Common | $1.02 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Spinarak | Common | $1.02 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Zapdos | Holo Rare | $1.00 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Charmeleon | Uncommon | $0.87 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Ivysaur | Uncommon | $0.82 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Gyarados | Holo Rare | $0.82 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Wartortle | Uncommon | $0.81 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Eevee | Common | $0.80 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Sylveon | Holo Rare | $0.74 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Bulbasaur | Common | $0.65 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Tyranitar | Holo Rare | $0.63 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Slowbro | Uncommon | $0.60 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Charmander | Common | $0.57 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Zapdos | Holo Rare | $0.57 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Lapras | Holo Rare | $0.57 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Pikachu (27) | Common | $0.54 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Gyarados | Holo Rare | $0.53 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| PokeStop | Uncommon | $0.53 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Moltres | Holo Rare | $0.50 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Articuno | Holo Rare | $0.50 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Numel | Common | $0.47 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Chansey | Uncommon | $0.47 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Onix | Common | $0.47 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Articuno | Holo Rare | $0.46 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Slowpoke | Common | $0.44 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Magikarp | Common | $0.44 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Bidoof | Common | $0.44 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Pidove | Common | $0.44 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Larvitar | Common | $0.42 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Blissey | Holo Rare | $0.40 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Unfezant | Uncommon | $0.40 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Lapras | Holo Rare | $0.39 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Blanche | Uncommon | $0.38 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Alolan Raticate | Common | $0.38 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Melmetal | Holo Rare | $0.38 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Rare Candy | Uncommon | $0.37 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Alolan Rattata | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Moltres | Holo Rare | $0.36 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Bibarel | Common | $0.36 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Steelix | Uncommon | $0.35 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Squirtle | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Aipom | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Ambipom | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Pupitar | Uncommon | $0.34 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Tyranitar | Holo Rare | $0.34 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Bulbasaur | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Egg Incubator | Uncommon | $0.33 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Lure Module | Uncommon | $0.33 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Natu | Common | $0.32 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Camerupt | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Xatu | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Spark | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Solrock | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Ivysaur | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Blissey | Holo Rare | $0.29 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Candela | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Meltan | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Golisopod | Holo Rare | $0.28 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Lunatone | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Wimpod | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Eevee | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Wartortle | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Tranquill | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Charmander | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Charmeleon | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Spinarak | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Ariados | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Slowbro | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Numel | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Magikarp | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| PokeStop | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Golisopod | Holo Rare | $0.21 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Chansey | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Larvitar | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Slowpoke | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Bibarel | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Melmetal | Holo Rare | $0.19 | 1 in 22 (4.46%) | $208.76 |
| Lunatone | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Aipom | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Bidoof | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Steelix | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Camerupt | Uncommon | $0.17 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Solrock | Uncommon | $0.17 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Egg Incubator | Uncommon | $0.17 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Rare Candy | Uncommon | $0.17 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Alolan Raticate | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Onix | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Pidove | Common | $0.15 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Blanche | Uncommon | $0.15 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Alolan Rattata | Common | $0.15 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Natu | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Xatu | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Ambipom | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Unfezant | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Candela | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Spark | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Meltan | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Wimpod | Common | $0.13 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Lure Module | Uncommon | $0.13 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Ariados | Uncommon | $0.12 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |
| Tranquill | Common | $0.12 | 1 in 5 (20%) | $46.60 |
| Pupitar | Uncommon | $0.12 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $62.13 |