Sets / Pokemon GO

Pokemon GO

A $10.83 Pokemon GO pack returns $6.40 in expected card value on average — 59% of what you paid.

No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers Pokemon GO, so these odds come from digitaltq.com, which discloses a 371-pack sample. Sources that do not state how many packs they counted are not used here, however confident they sound.

How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.

Products in this set

ProductPriceExpected valueExpected return
Pokemon GO Poke Ball Tin - Poke Ball$32.50$19.2159%
Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Blissey]$27.93$12.8146%
Pokemon GO Booster Pack$14.50$6.4044%
Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Pikachu]$32.00$12.8140%
Pokemon GO Tin [Blissey]$49.36$19.2139%
Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Eevee]$34.77$12.8137%
Pokemon GO Elite Trainer Box$170.47$57.6234%
Pokemon GO Premium Collection [Radiant Eevee]$166.99$51.2231%
Pokemon GO Tin [Pikachu]$71.60$19.2127%
Pokemon GO Tin [Snorlax]$71.63$19.2127%
Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Magikarp]$48.56$12.8126%
Pokemon GO Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box Plus (Exclusive)$235.31$57.6224%
Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Snorlax]$54.44$12.8124%
Pokemon GO Poke Ball Tin - Great Ball—$19.21TBD
Pokemon GO Poke Ball Tin - Ultra Ball—$19.21TBD

Where to buy

Pokemon GO Poke Ball Tin - Poke Ball · Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Blissey] · Pokemon GO Booster Pack · Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Pikachu] · Pokemon GO Tin [Blissey] · Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Eevee] · Pokemon GO Elite Trainer Box · Pokemon GO Premium Collection [Radiant Eevee] · Pokemon GO Tin [Pikachu] · Pokemon GO Tin [Snorlax] · Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Magikarp] · Pokemon GO Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box Plus (Exclusive) · Pokemon GO Mini Tin [Snorlax] · Pokemon GO Poke Ball Tin - Great Ball · Pokemon GO Poke Ball Tin - Ultra Ball

Expected return by product type

ProductPrice per packExpected return
Booster Pack$14.5044%
Elite Trainer Box$18.9434%

Pull rates (source: community_estimate)

RarityPull rateSample
Secret Rare3.77%n=371
Radiant Rare5.39%n=371
Ultra Rare27.22%n=371
Holo Rare71.43%
Common500%
Uncommon300%

Cards & odds

CardRarityMarket priceOddsCost to pull
Mewtwo V (Alternate Full Art)Ultra Rare$57.451 in 62 (1.6%)$676.59
Mewtwo VSTAR (79) (Secret)Secret Rare$54.951 in 265 (0.38%)$2873.56
Dragonite VSTAR (Secret)Secret Rare$47.991 in 265 (0.38%)$2873.56
Mewtwo VSTAR (86) (Secret)Secret Rare$35.451 in 265 (0.38%)$2873.56
Radiant CharizardRadiant Rare$19.011 in 56 (1.8%)$602.97
Bidoof (Peelable Ditto)Common$17.48TBDTBD
Dragonite V (Full Art)Ultra Rare$15.671 in 62 (1.6%)$676.59
Spinarak (Peelable Ditto)Common$15.33TBDTBD
Numel (Peelable Ditto)Common$14.01TBDTBD
Melmetal VMAX (Secret)Secret Rare$12.111 in 265 (0.38%)$2873.56
Radiant BlastoiseRadiant Rare$10.621 in 56 (1.8%)$602.97
Professor's Research [Professor Willow] (Secret)Secret Rare$9.141 in 265 (0.38%)$2873.56
Spark (Secret)Secret Rare$8.981 in 265 (0.38%)$2873.56
Mewtwo VSTARUltra Rare$8.521 in 62 (1.6%)$676.59
Blanche (Secret)Secret Rare$8.141 in 265 (0.38%)$2873.56
Radiant VenusaurRadiant Rare$8.131 in 56 (1.8%)$602.97
Candela (Secret)Secret Rare$7.891 in 265 (0.38%)$2873.56
Mewtwo VUltra Rare$5.221 in 62 (1.6%)$676.59
Conkeldurr V (Alternate Full Art)Ultra Rare$4.531 in 62 (1.6%)$676.59
Dragonite VUltra Rare$4.181 in 62 (1.6%)$676.59
Dragonite VSTARUltra Rare$3.901 in 62 (1.6%)$676.59
Egg Incubator (Secret)Secret Rare$3.271 in 265 (0.38%)$2873.56
Alolan Exeggutor V (Full Art)Ultra Rare$2.671 in 62 (1.6%)$676.59
Lure Module (Secret)Secret Rare$2.291 in 265 (0.38%)$2873.56
Professor's Research [Professor Willow] (Full Art)Ultra Rare$2.281 in 62 (1.6%)$676.59
Slaking V (Full Art)Ultra Rare$1.891 in 62 (1.6%)$676.59
Melmetal VMAXUltra Rare$1.701 in 62 (1.6%)$676.59
Conkeldurr V (Full Art)Ultra Rare$1.691 in 62 (1.6%)$676.59
Melmetal V (Full Art)Ultra Rare$1.571 in 62 (1.6%)$676.59
Alolan Exeggutor VUltra Rare$0.801 in 62 (1.6%)$676.59
Slaking VUltra Rare$0.741 in 62 (1.6%)$676.59
Melmetal VUltra Rare$0.741 in 62 (1.6%)$676.59
Conkeldurr VUltra Rare$0.691 in 62 (1.6%)$676.59
CharizardHolo Rare$5.401 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
DittoHolo Rare$5.401 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
CharizardHolo Rare$3.681 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
SnorlaxHolo Rare$3.261 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
BlastoiseHolo Rare$2.901 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
Pikachu (28)Holo Rare$2.821 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
BlastoiseHolo Rare$2.171 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
VenusaurHolo Rare$2.071 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
SnorlaxHolo Rare$1.941 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
Pikachu (28)Holo Rare$1.801 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
VenusaurHolo Rare$1.521 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
SylveonHolo Rare$1.141 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
Pikachu (27)Common$1.121 in 5 (20%)$46.60
SquirtleCommon$1.021 in 5 (20%)$46.60
SpinarakCommon$1.021 in 5 (20%)$46.60
ZapdosHolo Rare$1.001 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
CharmeleonUncommon$0.871 in 7 (15%)$62.13
IvysaurUncommon$0.821 in 7 (15%)$62.13
GyaradosHolo Rare$0.821 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
WartortleUncommon$0.811 in 7 (15%)$62.13
EeveeCommon$0.801 in 5 (20%)$46.60
SylveonHolo Rare$0.741 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
BulbasaurCommon$0.651 in 5 (20%)$46.60
TyranitarHolo Rare$0.631 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
SlowbroUncommon$0.601 in 7 (15%)$62.13
CharmanderCommon$0.571 in 5 (20%)$46.60
ZapdosHolo Rare$0.571 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
LaprasHolo Rare$0.571 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
Pikachu (27)Common$0.541 in 5 (20%)$46.60
GyaradosHolo Rare$0.531 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
PokeStopUncommon$0.531 in 7 (15%)$62.13
MoltresHolo Rare$0.501 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
ArticunoHolo Rare$0.501 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
NumelCommon$0.471 in 5 (20%)$46.60
ChanseyUncommon$0.471 in 7 (15%)$62.13
OnixCommon$0.471 in 5 (20%)$46.60
ArticunoHolo Rare$0.461 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
SlowpokeCommon$0.441 in 5 (20%)$46.60
MagikarpCommon$0.441 in 5 (20%)$46.60
BidoofCommon$0.441 in 5 (20%)$46.60
PidoveCommon$0.441 in 5 (20%)$46.60
LarvitarCommon$0.421 in 5 (20%)$46.60
BlisseyHolo Rare$0.401 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
UnfezantUncommon$0.401 in 7 (15%)$62.13
LaprasHolo Rare$0.391 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
BlancheUncommon$0.381 in 7 (15%)$62.13
Alolan RaticateCommon$0.381 in 5 (20%)$46.60
MelmetalHolo Rare$0.381 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
Rare CandyUncommon$0.371 in 7 (15%)$62.13
Alolan RattataCommon$0.371 in 5 (20%)$46.60
MoltresHolo Rare$0.361 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
BibarelCommon$0.361 in 5 (20%)$46.60
SteelixUncommon$0.351 in 7 (15%)$62.13
SquirtleCommon$0.341 in 5 (20%)$46.60
AipomCommon$0.341 in 5 (20%)$46.60
AmbipomCommon$0.341 in 5 (20%)$46.60
PupitarUncommon$0.341 in 7 (15%)$62.13
TyranitarHolo Rare$0.341 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
BulbasaurCommon$0.331 in 5 (20%)$46.60
Egg IncubatorUncommon$0.331 in 7 (15%)$62.13
Lure ModuleUncommon$0.331 in 7 (15%)$62.13
NatuCommon$0.321 in 5 (20%)$46.60
CameruptUncommon$0.311 in 7 (15%)$62.13
XatuUncommon$0.311 in 7 (15%)$62.13
SparkUncommon$0.311 in 7 (15%)$62.13
SolrockUncommon$0.301 in 7 (15%)$62.13
IvysaurUncommon$0.291 in 7 (15%)$62.13
BlisseyHolo Rare$0.291 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
CandelaUncommon$0.291 in 7 (15%)$62.13
MeltanCommon$0.291 in 5 (20%)$46.60
GolisopodHolo Rare$0.281 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
LunatoneUncommon$0.281 in 7 (15%)$62.13
WimpodCommon$0.271 in 5 (20%)$46.60
EeveeCommon$0.271 in 5 (20%)$46.60
WartortleUncommon$0.261 in 7 (15%)$62.13
TranquillCommon$0.261 in 5 (20%)$46.60
CharmanderCommon$0.251 in 5 (20%)$46.60
CharmeleonUncommon$0.251 in 7 (15%)$62.13
SpinarakCommon$0.251 in 5 (20%)$46.60
AriadosUncommon$0.241 in 7 (15%)$62.13
SlowbroUncommon$0.241 in 7 (15%)$62.13
NumelCommon$0.231 in 5 (20%)$46.60
MagikarpCommon$0.221 in 5 (20%)$46.60
PokeStopUncommon$0.221 in 7 (15%)$62.13
GolisopodHolo Rare$0.211 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
ChanseyUncommon$0.211 in 7 (15%)$62.13
LarvitarCommon$0.201 in 5 (20%)$46.60
SlowpokeCommon$0.191 in 5 (20%)$46.60
BibarelCommon$0.191 in 5 (20%)$46.60
MelmetalHolo Rare$0.191 in 22 (4.46%)$208.76
LunatoneUncommon$0.181 in 7 (15%)$62.13
AipomCommon$0.181 in 5 (20%)$46.60
BidoofCommon$0.181 in 5 (20%)$46.60
SteelixUncommon$0.181 in 7 (15%)$62.13
CameruptUncommon$0.171 in 7 (15%)$62.13
SolrockUncommon$0.171 in 7 (15%)$62.13
Egg IncubatorUncommon$0.171 in 7 (15%)$62.13
Rare CandyUncommon$0.171 in 7 (15%)$62.13
Alolan RaticateCommon$0.171 in 5 (20%)$46.60
OnixCommon$0.161 in 5 (20%)$46.60
PidoveCommon$0.151 in 5 (20%)$46.60
BlancheUncommon$0.151 in 7 (15%)$62.13
Alolan RattataCommon$0.151 in 5 (20%)$46.60
NatuCommon$0.141 in 5 (20%)$46.60
XatuUncommon$0.141 in 7 (15%)$62.13
AmbipomCommon$0.141 in 5 (20%)$46.60
UnfezantUncommon$0.141 in 7 (15%)$62.13
CandelaUncommon$0.141 in 7 (15%)$62.13
SparkUncommon$0.141 in 7 (15%)$62.13
MeltanCommon$0.141 in 5 (20%)$46.60
WimpodCommon$0.131 in 5 (20%)$46.60
Lure ModuleUncommon$0.131 in 7 (15%)$62.13
AriadosUncommon$0.121 in 7 (15%)$62.13
TranquillCommon$0.121 in 5 (20%)$46.60
PupitarUncommon$0.121 in 7 (15%)$62.13