A $400.00 Rising Rivals pack returns $61.68 in expected card value on average — 15% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers Rising Rivals, so these odds come from thepricedex.com, which discloses a disclosed sample. Sources that do not state how many packs they counted are not used here, however confident they sound.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rising Rivals Booster Pack | $400.00 | $61.68 | 15% |
| Rising Rivals Booster Box | — | $2220.46 | TBD |
Rising Rivals Booster Pack · Rising Rivals Booster Box
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $400.00 | 15% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Secret Rare | 2.75% | |
| Ultra Rare | 5.56% | |
| Holo Rare | 25% | |
| Rare | 66.67% | |
| Common | 500% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Snorlax Lv.X | Ultra Rare | $600.00 | 1 in 270 (0.37%) | $107913.67 |
| Surfing Pikachu | Secret Rare | $388.58 | 1 in 109 (0.92%) | $43636.36 |
| Infernape E4 Lv.X | Ultra Rare | $350.00 | 1 in 270 (0.37%) | $107913.67 |
| Alakazam E4 Lv.X | Ultra Rare | $336.25 | 1 in 270 (0.37%) | $107913.67 |
| Pikachu | Secret Rare | $287.89 | 1 in 109 (0.92%) | $43636.36 |
| Flying Pikachu | Secret Rare | $208.03 | 1 in 109 (0.92%) | $43636.36 |
| Flygon Lv.X | Ultra Rare | $135.51 | 1 in 270 (0.37%) | $107913.67 |
| Luxray GL Lv.X | Ultra Rare | $120.58 | 1 in 270 (0.37%) | $107913.67 |
| Gallade E4 Lv.X | Ultra Rare | $116.35 | 1 in 270 (0.37%) | $107913.67 |
| Floatzel GL Lv.X | Ultra Rare | $100.00 | 1 in 270 (0.37%) | $107913.67 |
| Mismagius GL Lv.X | Ultra Rare | $99.99 | 1 in 270 (0.37%) | $107913.67 |
| Heat Rotom | Ultra Rare | $86.05 | 1 in 270 (0.37%) | $107913.67 |
| Hippowdon Lv.X | Ultra Rare | $80.76 | 1 in 270 (0.37%) | $107913.67 |
| Wash Rotom | Ultra Rare | $51.57 | 1 in 270 (0.37%) | $107913.67 |
| Mow Rotom | Ultra Rare | $45.49 | 1 in 270 (0.37%) | $107913.67 |
| Frost Rotom | Ultra Rare | $44.36 | 1 in 270 (0.37%) | $107913.67 |
| Fan Rotom | Ultra Rare | $37.94 | 1 in 270 (0.37%) | $107913.67 |
| Charon's Choice | Ultra Rare | $16.74 | 1 in 270 (0.37%) | $107913.67 |
| Arcanine | Holo Rare | $94.78 | 1 in 52 (1.92%) | $19326.84 |
| Darkrai G | Holo Rare | $88.00 | 1 in 52 (1.92%) | $19326.84 |
| Turtwig GL | Common | $79.99 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Snorlax (33) | Rare | $78.39 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Gengar GL | Uncommon | $77.89 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Snorlax (81) | Common | $75.00 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Flareon E4 | Common | $60.00 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Munchlax (69) | Common | $60.00 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Arcanine | Holo Rare | $59.38 | 1 in 52 (1.92%) | $19326.84 |
| Jirachi | Holo Rare | $58.25 | 1 in 52 (1.92%) | $19326.84 |
| Darkrai G | Holo Rare | $51.02 | 1 in 52 (1.92%) | $19326.84 |
| Glaceon | Uncommon | $49.99 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Raichu GL | Rare | $47.50 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Munchlax (70) | Common | $45.98 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Flareon | Rare | $42.50 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Jolteon | Rare | $40.48 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Alakazam E4 | Uncommon | $34.23 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Gengar GL | Uncommon | $32.40 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Snorlax (33) | Rare | $29.98 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Lucario GL | Holo Rare | $29.29 | 1 in 52 (1.92%) | $19326.84 |
| Eevee | Common | $28.44 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Vaporeon | Rare | $27.19 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Leafeon | Uncommon | $26.72 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Espeon E4 | Rare | $26.71 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Growlithe | Common | $26.69 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Jirachi | Holo Rare | $25.80 | 1 in 52 (1.92%) | $19326.84 |
| Flygon | Holo Rare | $25.15 | 1 in 52 (1.92%) | $19326.84 |
| Gallade E4 | Rare | $25.00 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Spheal | Common | $23.38 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Flygon | Holo Rare | $22.99 | 1 in 52 (1.92%) | $19326.84 |
| Luxray GL | Holo Rare | $21.75 | 1 in 52 (1.92%) | $19326.84 |
| Luxray GL | Holo Rare | $20.84 | 1 in 52 (1.92%) | $19326.84 |
| Quagsire GL | Common | $17.50 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Espeon E4 | Rare | $16.67 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Lucario GL | Holo Rare | $16.49 | 1 in 52 (1.92%) | $19326.84 |
| Jolteon | Rare | $16.35 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Heracross E4 | Rare | $15.89 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Snorlax (81) | Common | $15.37 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Nidorino | Common | $14.99 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Steelix GL | Uncommon | $14.94 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Nidoking | Rare | $14.29 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Infernape E4 | Uncommon | $13.71 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Flareon | Rare | $13.47 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Walrein | Rare | $13.33 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Vaporeon | Rare | $13.32 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Mismagius GL | Holo Rare | $12.81 | 1 in 52 (1.92%) | $19326.84 |
| Bastiodon GL | Holo Rare | $12.76 | 1 in 52 (1.92%) | $19326.84 |
| Froslass GL | Holo Rare | $12.33 | 1 in 52 (1.92%) | $19326.84 |
| Bastiodon GL | Holo Rare | $12.12 | 1 in 52 (1.92%) | $19326.84 |
| Rampardos GL | Holo Rare | $11.80 | 1 in 52 (1.92%) | $19326.84 |
| Munchlax (69) | Common | $11.75 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Koffing | Common | $11.50 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Froslass GL | Holo Rare | $10.92 | 1 in 52 (1.92%) | $19326.84 |
| Mr. Mime E4 | Rare | $10.67 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Munchlax (70) | Common | $10.38 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Aerodactyl GL | Common | $9.99 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Rampardos GL | Holo Rare | $9.71 | 1 in 52 (1.92%) | $19326.84 |
| Mamoswine GL | Rare | $9.22 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Gastrodon West Sea | Rare | $9.12 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Hippopotas | Common | $8.99 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Mismagius GL | Holo Rare | $8.99 | 1 in 52 (1.92%) | $19326.84 |
| Floatzel GL | Holo Rare | $8.69 | 1 in 52 (1.92%) | $19326.84 |
| Scizor E4 | Uncommon | $8.02 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Floatzel GL | Holo Rare | $7.89 | 1 in 52 (1.92%) | $19326.84 |
| Alakazam E4 | Uncommon | $7.72 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Nidoking | Rare | $7.61 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Roserade GL | Holo Rare | $7.54 | 1 in 52 (1.92%) | $19326.84 |
| Glaceon | Uncommon | $7.44 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Trapinch | Common | $7.40 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Raichu GL | Rare | $7.38 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Nidoqueen | Rare | $7.02 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Vespiquen E4 | Rare | $6.78 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Houndoom E4 | Common | $6.46 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Golem E4 | Rare | $6.21 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Roserade GL | Holo Rare | $5.76 | 1 in 52 (1.92%) | $19326.84 |
| Weezing | Common | $5.50 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Shellos East Sea | Common | $5.39 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Gliscor E4 | Common | $5.32 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Team Galactic's Invention G-109 SP Radar | Uncommon | $5.00 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Gastrodon East Sea | Rare | $4.96 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Nidoran F | Common | $4.96 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Shellos West Sea | Common | $4.86 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Shiftry | Holo Rare | $4.86 | 1 in 52 (1.92%) | $19326.84 |
| Sharpedo | Uncommon | $4.76 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Aggron | Rare | $4.63 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Machamp GL | Uncommon | $4.56 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Spheal | Common | $4.48 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Rapidash E4 | Uncommon | $4.42 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Drapion E4 | Rare | $4.39 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Kecleon | Common | $4.37 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Nidoqueen | Rare | $3.98 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Eevee | Common | $3.95 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Gastrodon West Sea | Rare | $3.84 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Gallade E4 | Rare | $3.62 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Heracross E4 | Rare | $3.53 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Ambipom G | Common | $3.52 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Aron | Common | $3.46 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Leafeon | Uncommon | $3.42 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Shiftry | Holo Rare | $3.17 | 1 in 52 (1.92%) | $19326.84 |
| Pokemon Contest Hall | Uncommon | $3.07 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Flareon E4 | Common | $3.03 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Beedrill | Rare | $3.00 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Lucian's Assignment | Uncommon | $3.00 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Aggron | Rare | $2.99 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Nidorina | Common | $2.93 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Bertha's Warmth | Uncommon | $2.83 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Electrode G | Uncommon | $2.77 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Scizor E4 | Uncommon | $2.65 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Seedot | Common | $2.62 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Darkness Energy (Special) | Uncommon | $2.54 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Yanmega E4 | Rare | $2.52 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Tropius | Uncommon | $2.46 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Lairon | Uncommon | $2.41 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Yanmega E4 | Rare | $2.37 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Gastrodon East Sea | Rare | $2.35 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Sealeo | Common | $2.34 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Hippowdon | Rare | $2.33 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Rhyperior E4 | Rare | $2.29 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Golem E4 | Rare | $2.20 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Bronzong E4 | Rare | $2.16 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Whiscash E4 | Uncommon | $2.08 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Walrein | Rare | $2.05 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Mamoswine GL | Rare | $2.03 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Forretress G | Common | $1.98 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Staryu | Common | $1.92 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Kakuna | Common | $1.86 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Drapion E4 | Rare | $1.81 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Hippowdon E4 | Uncommon | $1.75 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Houndoom E4 | Common | $1.75 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Underground Expedition | Uncommon | $1.75 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Shellos East Sea | Common | $1.72 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Sunyshore City Gym | Uncommon | $1.71 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Starmie | Uncommon | $1.69 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Nuzleaf | Common | $1.67 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Bronzong E4 | Rare | $1.64 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Infernape E4 | Uncommon | $1.57 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Turtwig GL | Common | $1.56 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Quagsire GL | Common | $1.54 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Vibrava | Uncommon | $1.47 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Volkner's Philosophy | Uncommon | $1.43 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Nidoran M | Common | $1.33 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Growlithe | Common | $1.30 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Team Galactic's Invention G-107 Technical Machine G | Uncommon | $1.28 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Weedle | Common | $1.25 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Mr. Mime E4 | Rare | $1.20 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Upper Energy | Uncommon | $1.20 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Bebe's Search | Uncommon | $1.18 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Machamp GL | Uncommon | $1.17 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Carvanha | Common | $1.14 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Rapidash E4 | Uncommon | $1.14 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Vespiquen E4 | Rare | $1.13 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Beedrill | Rare | $1.12 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Koffing | Common | $1.11 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Rhyperior E4 | Rare | $0.98 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Hippowdon | Rare | $0.96 | 1 in 36 (2.78%) | $13379.45 |
| Metal Energy (Special) | Uncommon | $0.96 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Steelix GL | Uncommon | $0.88 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Sharpedo | Uncommon | $0.87 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Flint's Willpower | Uncommon | $0.81 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Team Galactic's Invention G-109 SP Radar | Uncommon | $0.81 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Aaron's Collection | Uncommon | $0.73 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Aerodactyl GL | Common | $0.71 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Aaron's Collection | Uncommon | $0.69 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| SP Energy | Uncommon | $0.69 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Starmie | Uncommon | $0.67 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Nidoran F | Common | $0.66 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Shellos West Sea | Common | $0.58 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Hippowdon E4 | Uncommon | $0.57 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Whiscash E4 | Uncommon | $0.56 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Aron | Common | $0.55 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Upper Energy | Uncommon | $0.52 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Lairon | Uncommon | $0.51 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Kecleon | Common | $0.49 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Sealeo | Common | $0.47 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Volkner's Philosophy | Uncommon | $0.47 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Nidorina | Common | $0.46 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| SP Energy | Uncommon | $0.45 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Electrode G | Uncommon | $0.43 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Bebe's Search | Uncommon | $0.42 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Gliscor E4 | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Ambipom G | Common | $0.39 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Bertha's Warmth | Uncommon | $0.38 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Tropius | Uncommon | $0.38 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Underground Expedition | Uncommon | $0.38 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Hippopotas | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Trapinch | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Flint's Willpower | Uncommon | $0.36 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Vibrava | Uncommon | $0.36 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Kakuna | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Weezing | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Metal Energy (Special) | Uncommon | $0.33 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Nidoran M | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Nidorino | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Sunyshore City Gym | Uncommon | $0.33 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Forretress G | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Seedot | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Weedle | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Darkness Energy (Special) | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Lucian's Assignment | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Pokemon Contest Hall | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Nuzleaf | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Staryu | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |
| Team Galactic's Invention G-107 Technical Machine G | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $3964.48 |
| Carvanha | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $2453.02 |