
A $112.95 Shining Legends pack returns $23.56 in expected card value on average — 21% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers Shining Legends, so these odds come from elitefourum.com, which discloses a 1,536-pack sample. A stated count is the difference between a measured rate and a confident guess, so it is recorded here whenever a source gives one.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shining Legends Booster Pack | $112.95 | $23.56 | 21% |
| Shining Legends Elite Trainer Box | $1199.66 | $212.00 | 18% |
Shining Legends Booster Pack · Shining Legends Elite Trainer Box
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $112.95 | 21% |
| Elite Trainer Box | $133.30 | 18% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Secret Rare | 0.91% | n=1536 |
| Shiny Holo Rare | 8.72% | n=1536 |
| Ultra Rare | 19.79% | n=1536 |
| Holo Rare | 71.43% | |
| Common | 500% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mewtwo GX (Secret Shining) | Shiny Holo Rare | $824.73 | 1 in 80 (1.25%) | $9067.09 |
| Shining Mew | Shiny Holo Rare | $206.12 | 1 in 80 (1.25%) | $9067.09 |
| Shining Rayquaza | Shiny Holo Rare | $155.14 | 1 in 80 (1.25%) | $9067.09 |
| Mewtwo GX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $98.75 | 1 in 440 (0.23%) | $49648.35 |
| Raichu GX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $44.46 | 1 in 440 (0.23%) | $49648.35 |
| Shining Jirachi | Shiny Holo Rare | $40.89 | 1 in 80 (1.25%) | $9067.09 |
| Shining Arceus | Shiny Holo Rare | $35.40 | 1 in 80 (1.25%) | $9067.09 |
| Entei GX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $32.67 | 1 in 440 (0.23%) | $49648.35 |
| Mewtwo GX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $31.80 | 1 in 35 (2.83%) | $3995.20 |
| Zoroark GX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $30.00 | 1 in 440 (0.23%) | $49648.35 |
| Shining Genesect | Shiny Holo Rare | $14.48 | 1 in 80 (1.25%) | $9067.09 |
| Mewtwo GX | Ultra Rare | $13.79 | 1 in 35 (2.83%) | $3995.20 |
| Entei GX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $12.00 | 1 in 35 (2.83%) | $3995.20 |
| Pokemon Breeder (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $11.16 | 1 in 35 (2.83%) | $3995.20 |
| Shining Volcanion | Shiny Holo Rare | $7.50 | 1 in 80 (1.25%) | $9067.09 |
| Raichu GX | Ultra Rare | $5.57 | 1 in 35 (2.83%) | $3995.20 |
| Entei GX | Ultra Rare | $4.14 | 1 in 35 (2.83%) | $3995.20 |
| Zoroark GX | Ultra Rare | $3.29 | 1 in 35 (2.83%) | $3995.20 |
| Plusle | Common | $11.28 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Pikachu | Common | $11.22 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Totodile | Common | $6.73 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Bulbasaur | Common | $4.20 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Latios | Holo Rare | $3.73 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Venusaur | Uncommon | $2.79 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Marshadow | Holo Rare | $2.43 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Pikachu | Common | $2.29 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Zorua | Common | $2.10 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Venusaur | Uncommon | $1.62 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Plusle | Common | $1.62 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Raikou | Holo Rare | $1.62 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Reshiram | Holo Rare | $1.47 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Latios | Holo Rare | $1.31 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Jynx | Common | $1.30 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Feraligatr | Uncommon | $1.27 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Ivysaur | Common | $1.26 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Shaymin | Holo Rare | $1.20 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Minun | Common | $1.17 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Ivysaur | Common | $1.14 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Ultra Ball | Uncommon | $1.06 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Double Colorless Energy | Uncommon | $1.01 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Carnivine | Uncommon | $0.92 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Bulbasaur | Common | $0.88 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Yveltal | Holo Rare | $0.87 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Hoopa | Holo Rare | $0.82 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Palkia | Holo Rare | $0.78 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Raikou | Holo Rare | $0.77 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Keldeo | Holo Rare | $0.73 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Marshadow | Holo Rare | $0.69 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Incineroar | Uncommon | $0.67 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Croconaw | Common | $0.64 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Reshiram | Holo Rare | $0.63 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Arbok | Uncommon | $0.63 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Golurk | Uncommon | $0.61 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Torracat | Common | $0.57 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Zekrom | Holo Rare | $0.56 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Buizel | Common | $0.54 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Palkia | Holo Rare | $0.54 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Pokemon Breeder | Uncommon | $0.54 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Litten | Common | $0.53 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Zekrom | Holo Rare | $0.53 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Double Colorless Energy | Uncommon | $0.51 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Volcarona | Uncommon | $0.50 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Feraligatr | Uncommon | $0.47 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Breloom | Common | $0.45 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Qwilfish | Common | $0.43 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Lillie | Uncommon | $0.43 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Virizion | Holo Rare | $0.42 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Manaphy | Holo Rare | $0.42 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Liepard | Uncommon | $0.42 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Ekans | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Purrloin | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Voltorb | Common | $0.40 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Electrode | Uncommon | $0.40 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Scrafty | Uncommon | $0.40 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Scraggy | Common | $0.39 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Warp Energy | Uncommon | $0.39 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Yveltal | Holo Rare | $0.38 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Torkoal | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Manaphy | Holo Rare | $0.37 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Keldeo | Holo Rare | $0.37 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Stunfisk | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Larvesta | Common | $0.36 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Switch | Uncommon | $0.36 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Hau | Uncommon | $0.36 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Shroomish | Common | $0.35 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Zorua | Common | $0.35 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Hoopa | Holo Rare | $0.35 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Shaymin | Holo Rare | $0.34 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Totodile | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Energy Retrieval | Uncommon | $0.34 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Floatzel | Uncommon | $0.33 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Golett | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Super Scoop Up | Uncommon | $0.33 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Virizion | Holo Rare | $0.32 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Jynx | Common | $0.32 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Carnivine | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Arbok | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Great Ball | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Pokemon Breeder | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Warp Energy | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Incineroar | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Ekans | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Spiritomb | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Ultra Ball | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Lillie | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Minun | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Damage Mover | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Pokemon Catcher | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Volcarona | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Litten | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Sophocles | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Croconaw | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Floatzel | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Breloom | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Torracat | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Golurk | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Spiritomb | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Super Scoop Up | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Purrloin | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Energy Retrieval | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Shroomish | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Switch | Uncommon | $0.20 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Buizel | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Golett | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Scraggy | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Scrafty | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Damage Mover | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Sophocles | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Torkoal | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Larvesta | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Qwilfish | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Voltorb | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Electrode | Uncommon | $0.16 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Hau | Uncommon | $0.15 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Liepard | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Stunfisk | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Great Ball | Uncommon | $0.12 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Pokemon Catcher | Uncommon | $0.12 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |