A $109.79 Shining Legends pack returns $22.85 in expected card value on average — 21% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers Shining Legends, so these odds come from elitefourum.com, which discloses a 1,536-pack sample. Sources that do not state how many packs they counted are not used here, however confident they sound.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shining Legends Booster Pack | $109.79 | $22.85 | 21% |
| Shining Legends Elite Trainer Box | $1183.16 | $205.65 | 17% |
Shining Legends Booster Pack · Shining Legends Elite Trainer Box
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $109.79 | 21% |
| Elite Trainer Box | $131.46 | 17% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Secret Rare | 0.91% | n=1536 |
| Shiny Holo Rare | 8.72% | n=1536 |
| Ultra Rare | 19.79% | n=1536 |
| Holo Rare | 71.43% | |
| Common | 500% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mewtwo GX (Secret Shining) | Shiny Holo Rare | $819.25 | 1 in 80 (1.25%) | $8813.42 |
| Shining Mew | Shiny Holo Rare | $187.02 | 1 in 80 (1.25%) | $8813.42 |
| Shining Rayquaza | Shiny Holo Rare | $152.53 | 1 in 80 (1.25%) | $8813.42 |
| Mewtwo GX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $95.80 | 1 in 440 (0.23%) | $48259.34 |
| Raichu GX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $44.48 | 1 in 440 (0.23%) | $48259.34 |
| Shining Arceus | Shiny Holo Rare | $34.49 | 1 in 80 (1.25%) | $8813.42 |
| Shining Jirachi | Shiny Holo Rare | $33.04 | 1 in 80 (1.25%) | $8813.42 |
| Entei GX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $32.86 | 1 in 440 (0.23%) | $48259.34 |
| Mewtwo GX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $30.60 | 1 in 35 (2.83%) | $3883.43 |
| Zoroark GX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $27.60 | 1 in 440 (0.23%) | $48259.34 |
| Mewtwo GX | Ultra Rare | $15.68 | 1 in 35 (2.83%) | $3883.43 |
| Shining Genesect | Shiny Holo Rare | $13.52 | 1 in 80 (1.25%) | $8813.42 |
| Pokemon Breeder (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $12.12 | 1 in 35 (2.83%) | $3883.43 |
| Entei GX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $9.94 | 1 in 35 (2.83%) | $3883.43 |
| Shining Volcanion | Shiny Holo Rare | $6.51 | 1 in 80 (1.25%) | $8813.42 |
| Raichu GX | Ultra Rare | $4.81 | 1 in 35 (2.83%) | $3883.43 |
| Entei GX | Ultra Rare | $4.20 | 1 in 35 (2.83%) | $3883.43 |
| Zoroark GX | Ultra Rare | $3.67 | 1 in 35 (2.83%) | $3883.43 |
| Pikachu | Common | $11.63 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Plusle | Common | $10.66 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Totodile | Common | $7.50 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Bulbasaur | Common | $4.04 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Marshadow | Holo Rare | $2.41 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Venusaur | Uncommon | $2.35 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Venusaur | Uncommon | $2.14 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Pikachu | Common | $2.10 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Zorua | Common | $2.05 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Raikou | Holo Rare | $1.64 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Latios | Holo Rare | $1.54 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Reshiram | Holo Rare | $1.36 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Shaymin | Holo Rare | $1.32 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Plusle | Common | $1.29 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Feraligatr | Uncommon | $1.26 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Ivysaur | Common | $1.19 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Minun | Common | $1.14 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Latios | Holo Rare | $1.11 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Ultra Ball | Uncommon | $1.11 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Double Colorless Energy | Uncommon | $1.04 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Jynx | Common | $1.00 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Hoopa | Holo Rare | $0.90 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Yveltal | Holo Rare | $0.88 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Carnivine | Uncommon | $0.85 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Raikou | Holo Rare | $0.85 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Bulbasaur | Common | $0.82 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Keldeo | Holo Rare | $0.76 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Palkia | Holo Rare | $0.72 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Incineroar | Uncommon | $0.67 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Croconaw | Common | $0.66 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Arbok | Uncommon | $0.65 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Torracat | Common | $0.60 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Reshiram | Holo Rare | $0.59 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Zekrom | Holo Rare | $0.58 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Pokemon Breeder | Uncommon | $0.55 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Double Colorless Energy | Uncommon | $0.55 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Palkia | Holo Rare | $0.54 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Marshadow | Holo Rare | $0.54 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Golurk | Uncommon | $0.54 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Buizel | Common | $0.53 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Zekrom | Holo Rare | $0.52 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Manaphy | Holo Rare | $0.50 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Litten | Common | $0.49 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Virizion | Holo Rare | $0.47 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Totodile | Common | $0.47 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Breloom | Common | $0.45 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Lillie | Uncommon | $0.45 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Volcarona | Uncommon | $0.44 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Liepard | Uncommon | $0.43 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Scrafty | Uncommon | $0.42 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Keldeo | Holo Rare | $0.41 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Ekans | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Zorua | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Shaymin | Holo Rare | $0.40 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Feraligatr | Uncommon | $0.40 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Qwilfish | Common | $0.40 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Voltorb | Common | $0.40 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Jynx | Common | $0.40 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Scraggy | Common | $0.39 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Switch | Uncommon | $0.39 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Shroomish | Common | $0.38 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Purrloin | Common | $0.38 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Hoopa | Holo Rare | $0.38 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Ivysaur | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Larvesta | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Manaphy | Holo Rare | $0.37 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Electrode | Uncommon | $0.37 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Stunfisk | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Virizion | Holo Rare | $0.36 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Torkoal | Common | $0.36 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Warp Energy | Uncommon | $0.36 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Yveltal | Holo Rare | $0.34 | 1 in 17 (5.95%) | TBD |
| Energy Retrieval | Uncommon | $0.34 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Hau | Uncommon | $0.34 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Carnivine | Uncommon | $0.33 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Golett | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Incineroar | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Minun | Common | $0.32 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Floatzel | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Lillie | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Volcarona | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Arbok | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Great Ball | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Pokemon Catcher | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Super Scoop Up | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Warp Energy | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Ekans | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Spiritomb | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Croconaw | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Sophocles | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Damage Mover | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Ultra Ball | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Torracat | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Breloom | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Litten | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Super Scoop Up | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Torkoal | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Switch | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Golurk | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Scraggy | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Pokemon Breeder | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Spiritomb | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Purrloin | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Shroomish | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Damage Mover | Uncommon | $0.20 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Qwilfish | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Floatzel | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Golett | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Energy Retrieval | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Buizel | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Voltorb | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Electrode | Uncommon | $0.17 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Scrafty | Uncommon | $0.17 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Sophocles | Uncommon | $0.17 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Larvesta | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |
| Great Ball | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Pokemon Catcher | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Hau | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Liepard | Uncommon | $0.07 | 1 in 8 (12%) | TBD |
| Stunfisk | Common | $0.07 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | TBD |