Sets / SM - Burning Shadows

SM - Burning Shadows

A $30.00 SM - Burning Shadows pack returns $5.55 in expected card value on average — 19% of what you paid.

No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers SM - Burning Shadows, so these odds come from elitefourum.com, which discloses a 2,010-pack sample. A stated count is the difference between a measured rate and a confident guess, so it is recorded here whenever a source gives one.

How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.

Products in this set

ProductPriceExpected valueExpected return
Burning Shadows Booster Pack$30.00$5.5519%
Burning Shadows Sleeved Booster Pack$35.86$5.5515%
Burning Shadows Booster Box$1297.10$199.9615%
Burning Shadows Elite Trainer Box$346.28$49.9914%
Mysterious Powers Tin [Ho-Oh GX]$115.56$16.6614%
Burning Shadows 3 Pack Blister [Alolan Meowth]$120.00$16.6614%
Mysterious Powers Tin [Necrozma GX]$126.74$16.6613%
Burning Shadows Single Pack Blister [Komala]—$5.55TBD
Mysterious Powers Tin [Marshadow GX]—$16.66TBD
Burning Shadows Single Pack Blister [Jangmo-o]—$5.55TBD
Charizard GX Premium Collection—$33.33TBD
Burning Shadows 3 Pack Blister [Cosmog]—$16.66TBD

Where to buy

Burning Shadows Booster Pack · Burning Shadows Sleeved Booster Pack · Burning Shadows Booster Box · Burning Shadows Elite Trainer Box · Mysterious Powers Tin [Ho-Oh GX] · Burning Shadows 3 Pack Blister [Alolan Meowth] · Mysterious Powers Tin [Necrozma GX] · Burning Shadows Single Pack Blister [Komala] · Mysterious Powers Tin [Marshadow GX] · Burning Shadows Single Pack Blister [Jangmo-o] · Charizard GX Premium Collection · Burning Shadows 3 Pack Blister [Cosmog]

Expected return by product type

ProductPrice per packExpected return
Booster Pack$30.0019%
Booster Box$36.0315%
Elite Trainer Box$38.4814%

Pull rates (source: community_estimate)

RarityPull rateSample
Secret Rare0.95%n=2010
Rainbow Rare1.59%n=2010
Ultra Rare3.93%n=2010
Holo Rare15.63%
Rare66.67%
Common500%
Uncommon300%

Cards & odds

CardRarityMarket priceOddsCost to pull
Charizard GX (Secret)Rainbow Rare$840.751 in 818 (0.12%)$24528.30
Fairy Energy (Secret)Secret Rare$99.481 in 947 (0.11%)$28421.05
Wicke (Full Art)Ultra Rare$60.951 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Darkrai GX (Secret)Rainbow Rare$58.201 in 818 (0.12%)$24528.30
Darkness Energy (Secret)Secret Rare$57.331 in 947 (0.11%)$28421.05
Gardevoir GX (Secret)Rainbow Rare$53.411 in 818 (0.12%)$24528.30
Acerola (Full Art)Ultra Rare$52.981 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Machamp GX (Secret)Rainbow Rare$39.751 in 818 (0.12%)$24528.30
Darkrai GX (Full Art)Ultra Rare$37.071 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Noivern GX (Secret)Rainbow Rare$32.361 in 818 (0.12%)$24528.30
Marshadow GX (Secret)Rainbow Rare$32.071 in 818 (0.12%)$24528.30
Fire Energy (Secret)Secret Rare$28.471 in 947 (0.11%)$28421.05
Guzma (Full Art)Ultra Rare$26.171 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Lycanroc GX (Secret)Rainbow Rare$25.091 in 818 (0.12%)$24528.30
Necrozma GX (Secret)Rainbow Rare$24.231 in 818 (0.12%)$24528.30
Charizard GXUltra Rare$23.621 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Golisopod GX (Secret)Rainbow Rare$22.301 in 818 (0.12%)$24528.30
Ho-Oh GX (Full Art)Ultra Rare$22.051 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Gardevoir GX (Full Art)Ultra Rare$19.341 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Alolan Muk GX (Secret)Rainbow Rare$17.821 in 818 (0.12%)$24528.30
Escape Rope (Secret)Secret Rare$17.191 in 947 (0.11%)$28421.05
Plumeria (Full Art)Ultra Rare$16.021 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Salazzle GX (Secret)Rainbow Rare$14.651 in 818 (0.12%)$24528.30
Tapu Fini GX (Secret)Rainbow Rare$14.551 in 818 (0.12%)$24528.30
Rescue Stretcher (Secret)Secret Rare$12.011 in 947 (0.11%)$28421.05
Marshadow GX (Full Art)Ultra Rare$11.191 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Tapu Bulu GX (Secret)Rainbow Rare$11.091 in 818 (0.12%)$24528.30
Machamp GX (Full Art)Ultra Rare$10.951 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Kiawe (Full Art)Ultra Rare$10.411 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Sophocles (Full Art)Ultra Rare$8.551 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Noivern GX (Full Art)Ultra Rare$8.201 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Darkrai GXUltra Rare$8.011 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Bodybuilding Dumbbells (Secret)Secret Rare$7.661 in 947 (0.11%)$28421.05
Necrozma GX (Full Art)Ultra Rare$7.651 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Gardevoir GXUltra Rare$6.441 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Ho-Oh GXUltra Rare$5.951 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Alolan Muk GX (Full Art)Ultra Rare$5.911 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Lycanroc GX (Full Art)Ultra Rare$5.751 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Tapu Fini GX (Full Art)Ultra Rare$5.701 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Salazzle GX (Full Art)Ultra Rare$5.541 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Machamp GXUltra Rare$5.381 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Choice Band (Secret)Secret Rare$5.251 in 947 (0.11%)$28421.05
Tapu Bulu GX (Full Art)Ultra Rare$5.091 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Alolan Muk GXUltra Rare$5.081 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Golisopod GX (Full Art)Ultra Rare$4.941 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Marshadow GXUltra Rare$4.161 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Multi Switch (Secret)Secret Rare$3.791 in 947 (0.11%)$28421.05
Super Scoop Up (Secret)Secret Rare$3.781 in 947 (0.11%)$28421.05
Tapu Fini GXUltra Rare$3.361 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Necrozma GXUltra Rare$2.981 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Golisopod GXUltra Rare$1.731 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Noivern GXUltra Rare$1.681 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
Salazzle GXUltra Rare$1.671 in 789 (0.13%)$23664.12
MarillCommon$6.341 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
PikachuCommon$6.001 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
MagikarpCommon$3.691 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
GyaradosHolo Rare$3.331 in 83 (1.2%)$2714.78
GuzmaUncommon$3.311 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
GuzmaUncommon$3.231 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
Alolan NinetalesRare$2.821 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
GyaradosHolo Rare$2.801 in 83 (1.2%)$2714.78
Alolan NinetalesRare$2.061 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
TynamoCommon$1.861 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
RaltsCommon$1.671 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
DarkraiHolo Rare$1.551 in 83 (1.2%)$2714.78
LucarioHolo Rare$1.451 in 83 (1.2%)$2714.78
DarkraiHolo Rare$1.411 in 83 (1.2%)$2714.78
RaichuHolo Rare$1.351 in 83 (1.2%)$2714.78
RaichuHolo Rare$1.311 in 83 (1.2%)$2714.78
DiancieHolo Rare$1.251 in 83 (1.2%)$2714.78
KirliaUncommon$1.241 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
PikachuCommon$1.211 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
LucarioHolo Rare$1.191 in 83 (1.2%)$2714.78
CharmanderCommon$1.051 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
SlowkingRare$1.021 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
DiancieHolo Rare$0.961 in 83 (1.2%)$2714.78
VileplumeHolo Rare$0.881 in 83 (1.2%)$2714.78
VileplumeHolo Rare$0.871 in 83 (1.2%)$2714.78
Alolan VulpixCommon$0.861 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
MarillCommon$0.811 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
Porygon-ZHolo Rare$0.731 in 83 (1.2%)$2714.78
CharmeleonUncommon$0.661 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
KingdraHolo Rare$0.661 in 83 (1.2%)$2714.78
RibombeeUncommon$0.661 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
CutieflyCommon$0.651 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
ShiinoticRare$0.651 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
KingdraHolo Rare$0.631 in 83 (1.2%)$2714.78
Lycanroc (76)Rare$0.601 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
PorygonCommon$0.601 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
RioluCommon$0.591 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
SlowkingRare$0.551 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
CaterpieCommon$0.541 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
EspurrCommon$0.541 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
ButterfreeRare$0.531 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
TynamoCommon$0.531 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
WobbuffetUncommon$0.531 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
MorelullCommon$0.521 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
ZygardeHolo Rare$0.521 in 83 (1.2%)$2714.78
DusknoirHolo Rare$0.511 in 83 (1.2%)$2714.78
MeowsticRare$0.511 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
GloomUncommon$0.491 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
HorseaCommon$0.491 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
EelektrossRare$0.491 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
HeracrossRare$0.481 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
AzumarillRare$0.481 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
Lycanroc (75)Holo Rare$0.481 in 83 (1.2%)$2714.78
PersianRare$0.481 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
Porygon-ZHolo Rare$0.481 in 83 (1.2%)$2714.78
ButterfreeRare$0.471 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
WickeUncommon$0.471 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
ElectivireRare$0.461 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
ZygardeHolo Rare$0.461 in 83 (1.2%)$2714.78
TangelaCommon$0.451 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
LedianRare$0.451 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
InkayCommon$0.451 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
MeowthCommon$0.451 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
AcerolaUncommon$0.451 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
Wishful BatonUncommon$0.451 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
OddishCommon$0.441 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
Lycanroc (75)Holo Rare$0.441 in 83 (1.2%)$2714.78
Escape RopeUncommon$0.441 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
EelektrikUncommon$0.431 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
Alolan GrimerCommon$0.431 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
ShiinoticRare$0.431 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
Porygon2Uncommon$0.431 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
SeadraUncommon$0.421 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
DuskullCommon$0.421 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
RhyperiorHolo Rare$0.421 in 83 (1.2%)$2714.78
MudsdaleRare$0.421 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
RaltsCommon$0.421 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
ToxicroakRare$0.411 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
StuffulCommon$0.411 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
DusclopsUncommon$0.401 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
KirliaUncommon$0.401 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
MetapodUncommon$0.391 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
LedybaCommon$0.391 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
MagikarpCommon$0.391 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
DusknoirHolo Rare$0.391 in 83 (1.2%)$2714.78
PassimianRare$0.391 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
Alolan VulpixCommon$0.381 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
RhyhornCommon$0.381 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
RhydonUncommon$0.381 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
MudbrayCommon$0.381 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
WeavileRare$0.381 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
HoothootCommon$0.381 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
TogedemaruCommon$0.371 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
ScolipedeRare$0.371 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
RhyperiorHolo Rare$0.371 in 83 (1.2%)$2714.78
PersianRare$0.371 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
SimisearUncommon$0.361 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
VenipedeCommon$0.361 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
PlumeriaUncommon$0.361 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
AzumarillRare$0.351 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
WhirlipedeUncommon$0.351 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
RibombeeUncommon$0.351 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
BouffalantUncommon$0.351 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
BewearRare$0.351 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
KiaweUncommon$0.351 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
Rotom Dex Poke Finder ModeUncommon$0.351 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
TangrowthRare$0.341 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
PansageCommon$0.341 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
SimipourUncommon$0.341 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
LunatoneUncommon$0.341 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
Bodybuilding DumbbellsUncommon$0.341 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
PansearCommon$0.331 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
ElectabuzzUncommon$0.331 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
ToxicroakRare$0.331 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
SolrockUncommon$0.331 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
Weakness PolicyUncommon$0.331 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
BruxishRare$0.321 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
ElectivireRare$0.321 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
SandygastCommon$0.321 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
PalossandHolo Rare$0.321 in 83 (1.2%)$2714.78
PalossandHolo Rare$0.321 in 83 (1.2%)$2714.78
SneaselCommon$0.321 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
NoctowlUncommon$0.321 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
LanaUncommon$0.321 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
Po TownUncommon$0.321 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
AraquanidRare$0.311 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
MeowsticRare$0.311 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
MudsdaleRare$0.311 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
Alolan RaticateRare$0.311 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
CutieflyCommon$0.311 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
NoibatCommon$0.311 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
Wishful BatonUncommon$0.311 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
OddishCommon$0.301 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
HeracrossRare$0.301 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
PanpourCommon$0.301 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
CroagunkCommon$0.301 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
CrabominableRare$0.301 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
Lycanroc (76)Rare$0.301 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
Alolan RattataCommon$0.301 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
MorelullCommon$0.301 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
OliviaUncommon$0.301 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
LedianRare$0.291 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
HeatmorUncommon$0.291 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
SeviperUncommon$0.291 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
SawkCommon$0.291 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
CrabrawlerCommon$0.291 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
MeowthCommon$0.291 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
SophoclesUncommon$0.291 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
Escape RopeUncommon$0.291 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
GloomUncommon$0.281 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
DewpiderCommon$0.281 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
WimpodCommon$0.281 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
CharmanderCommon$0.281 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
CharmeleonUncommon$0.281 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
EspurrCommon$0.281 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
Alolan RaticateRare$0.281 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
PorygonCommon$0.281 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
StuffulCommon$0.281 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
KiaweUncommon$0.281 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
CaterpieCommon$0.271 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
TurtonatorRare$0.271 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
RioluCommon$0.271 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
MalamarRare$0.271 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
AcerolaUncommon$0.271 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
Rotom Dex Poke Finder ModeUncommon$0.271 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
SimisageUncommon$0.261 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
DuskullCommon$0.261 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
ScolipedeRare$0.261 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
BewearRare$0.261 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
Mount LanakilaUncommon$0.261 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
WobbuffetUncommon$0.251 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
NoibatCommon$0.251 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
AraquanidRare$0.241 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
BruxishRare$0.241 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
WeavileRare$0.241 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
NoctowlUncommon$0.241 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
LedybaCommon$0.231 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
Alolan RattataCommon$0.231 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
Tormenting SprayUncommon$0.231 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
HorseaCommon$0.221 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
CroagunkCommon$0.221 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
Super Scoop UpUncommon$0.221 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
EelektrikUncommon$0.211 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
MetapodUncommon$0.201 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
WimpodCommon$0.201 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
TurtonatorRare$0.201 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
SeadraUncommon$0.201 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
TangrowthRare$0.191 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
EelektrossRare$0.191 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
VenipedeCommon$0.191 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
CrabominableRare$0.191 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
MudbrayCommon$0.191 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
WickeUncommon$0.191 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
TangelaCommon$0.181 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
ElectabuzzUncommon$0.181 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
PassimianRare$0.181 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
MalamarRare$0.181 in 37 (2.67%)$1223.94
Porygon2Uncommon$0.181 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
LanaUncommon$0.181 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
SimipourUncommon$0.171 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
BouffalantUncommon$0.171 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
PlumeriaUncommon$0.171 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
Bodybuilding DumbbellsUncommon$0.171 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
Mount LanakilaUncommon$0.171 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
TogedemaruCommon$0.161 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
SeviperUncommon$0.161 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
LunatoneUncommon$0.161 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
PansageCommon$0.151 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
SimisageUncommon$0.151 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
DusclopsUncommon$0.151 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
SandygastCommon$0.151 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
RhyhornCommon$0.151 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
Alolan GrimerCommon$0.151 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
SneaselCommon$0.151 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
Super Scoop UpUncommon$0.151 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
PanpourCommon$0.141 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
OliviaUncommon$0.141 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
WhirlipedeUncommon$0.131 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
SawkCommon$0.131 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
Weakness PolicyUncommon$0.131 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
RhydonUncommon$0.121 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
SolrockUncommon$0.121 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
HoothootCommon$0.121 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
Tormenting SprayUncommon$0.121 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
HeatmorUncommon$0.111 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
PansearCommon$0.101 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
CrabrawlerCommon$0.101 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
DewpiderCommon$0.091 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
SimisearUncommon$0.091 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
InkayCommon$0.091 in 8 (12.82%)$254.59
SophoclesUncommon$0.081 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32
Po TownUncommon$0.081 in 13 (7.69%)$424.32