A $18.28 SM - Crimson Invasion pack returns $5.74 in expected card value on average — 31% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers SM - Crimson Invasion, so these odds come from elitefourum.com, which discloses a 1,530-pack sample. Sources that do not state how many packs they counted are not used here, however confident they sound.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crimson Invasion Booster Pack | $18.28 | $5.74 | 31% |
| Crimson Invasion 3 Pack Blister [Decidueye] | $55.74 | $17.23 | 31% |
| Crimson Invasion Booster Box | $677.89 | $206.76 | 31% |
| Crimson Invasion Elite Trainer Box | $221.75 | $51.69 | 23% |
| Crimson Invasion Single Pack Blister [Golisopod] | $33.16 | $5.74 | 17% |
| Crimson Invasion Single Pack Blister [Dhelmise] | $33.68 | $5.74 | 17% |
| Ultra Beasts GX Premium Collection [Buzzwole GX & Xurkitree GX] | $275.00 | $45.95 | 17% |
| Ultra Beasts GX Premium Collection [Pheromosa GX & Celesteela GX] | $440.65 | $45.95 | 10% |
| Crimson Invasion 3 Pack Blister [Lucario] | — | $17.23 | TBD |
Crimson Invasion Booster Pack · Crimson Invasion 3 Pack Blister [Decidueye] · Crimson Invasion Booster Box · Crimson Invasion Elite Trainer Box · Crimson Invasion Single Pack Blister [Golisopod] · Crimson Invasion Single Pack Blister [Dhelmise] · Ultra Beasts GX Premium Collection [Buzzwole GX & Xurkitree GX] · Ultra Beasts GX Premium Collection [Pheromosa GX & Celesteela GX] · Crimson Invasion 3 Pack Blister [Lucario]
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $18.28 | 31% |
| Booster Box | $18.83 | 31% |
| Elite Trainer Box | $24.64 | 23% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Secret Rare | 1.11% | n=1530 |
| Ultra Rare | 4.44% | n=1530 |
| Holo Rare | 18.18% | |
| Rare | 66.67% | |
| Common | 500% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gyarados GX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $81.29 | 1 in 1171 (0.09%) | $21409.01 |
| Lusamine (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $44.60 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7822.52 |
| Gyarados GX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $27.82 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7822.52 |
| Gyarados GX | Ultra Rare | $19.86 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7822.52 |
| Olivia (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $19.75 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7822.52 |
| Alolan Exeggutor GX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $18.99 | 1 in 1171 (0.09%) | $21409.01 |
| Nihilego GX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $17.95 | 1 in 1171 (0.09%) | $21409.01 |
| Water Energy (Secret) | Secret Rare | $17.84 | 1 in 1171 (0.09%) | $21409.01 |
| Gladion (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $17.16 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7822.52 |
| Buzzwole GX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $16.04 | 1 in 1171 (0.09%) | $21409.01 |
| Guzzlord GX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $15.49 | 1 in 1171 (0.09%) | $21409.01 |
| Silvally GX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $14.13 | 1 in 1171 (0.09%) | $21409.01 |
| Nihilego GX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $12.25 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7822.52 |
| Alolan Golem GX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $11.85 | 1 in 1171 (0.09%) | $21409.01 |
| Kartana GX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $11.71 | 1 in 1171 (0.09%) | $21409.01 |
| Nihilego GX | Ultra Rare | $9.64 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7822.52 |
| Guzzlord GX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $8.35 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7822.52 |
| Buzzwole GX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $8.10 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7822.52 |
| Counter Energy (Secret) | Secret Rare | $7.61 | 1 in 1171 (0.09%) | $21409.01 |
| Counter Catcher (Secret) | Secret Rare | $7.09 | 1 in 1171 (0.09%) | $21409.01 |
| Alolan Exeggutor GX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $7.06 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7822.52 |
| Guzzlord GX | Ultra Rare | $6.57 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7822.52 |
| Kartana GX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $5.77 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7822.52 |
| Silvally GX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $5.70 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7822.52 |
| Alolan Golem GX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $5.04 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7822.52 |
| Buzzwole GX | Ultra Rare | $4.95 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7822.52 |
| Warp Energy (Secret) | Secret Rare | $4.59 | 1 in 1171 (0.09%) | $21409.01 |
| Wishful Baton (Secret) | Secret Rare | $3.95 | 1 in 1171 (0.09%) | $21409.01 |
| Kartana GX | Ultra Rare | $2.93 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7822.52 |
| Silvally GX | Ultra Rare | $2.46 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7822.52 |
| Alolan Exeggutor GX | Ultra Rare | $2.38 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7822.52 |
| Alolan Golem GX | Ultra Rare | $2.01 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7822.52 |
| Gengar | Holo Rare | $26.20 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Gengar | Holo Rare | $25.83 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Pikachu | Common | $16.28 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Wigglytuff | Rare | $5.92 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Starmie | Rare | $4.17 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Haunter | Uncommon | $3.56 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Alolan Raichu | Holo Rare | $3.16 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Counter Catcher | Uncommon | $3.16 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Alolan Raichu | Holo Rare | $3.11 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Pikachu | Common | $2.77 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Wigglytuff | Rare | $2.29 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Primeape | Rare | $2.18 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Kommo-o | Rare | $2.09 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Counter Energy | Uncommon | $2.08 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Magikarp | Common | $1.85 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Alolan Marowak | Holo Rare | $1.83 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Xerneas | Holo Rare | $1.69 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Jigglypuff | Common | $1.52 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Cubone | Common | $1.48 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Xerneas | Holo Rare | $1.48 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Gladion | Uncommon | $1.40 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Houndoom | Rare | $1.35 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Starmie | Rare | $1.34 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Kommo-o | Rare | $1.30 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Lusamine | Uncommon | $1.09 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Type: Null | Holo Rare | $1.08 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Aggron | Holo Rare | $1.03 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Primeape | Rare | $1.00 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Jigglypuff | Common | $0.94 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Milotic | Holo Rare | $0.84 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Alolan Marowak | Holo Rare | $0.82 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Milotic | Holo Rare | $0.78 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Altaria | Rare | $0.76 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Cubone | Common | $0.74 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Registeel | Rare | $0.74 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Regice | Holo Rare | $0.72 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Type: Null | Holo Rare | $0.72 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Regice | Holo Rare | $0.71 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Regigigas | Holo Rare | $0.64 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Mismagius | Rare | $0.63 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Hakamo-o | Uncommon | $0.62 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Miltank | Uncommon | $0.62 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Staravia | Uncommon | $0.61 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Hydreigon | Rare | $0.60 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Minccino | Common | $0.60 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Counter Energy | Uncommon | $0.60 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Gastly | Common | $0.59 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Houndoom | Rare | $0.59 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Bewear | Holo Rare | $0.57 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Cacturne | Rare | $0.56 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Swinub | Common | $0.55 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Cinccino | Uncommon | $0.54 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Regirock | Rare | $0.53 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Regigigas | Holo Rare | $0.53 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Mawile | Uncommon | $0.52 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Aggron | Holo Rare | $0.52 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Stufful | Common | $0.49 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Counter Catcher | Uncommon | $0.49 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Gladion | Uncommon | $0.49 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Gourgeist | Rare | $0.48 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Beedrill | Rare | $0.47 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Gogoat | Holo Rare | $0.47 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Mamoswine | Rare | $0.47 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Salazzle | Holo Rare | $0.47 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Mankey | Common | $0.47 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Fighting Memory | Uncommon | $0.47 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Accelgor | Uncommon | $0.46 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Gogoat | Holo Rare | $0.46 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Feebas | Common | $0.46 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Emolga | Uncommon | $0.46 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Weedle | Common | $0.45 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Houndour | Common | $0.45 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Altaria | Rare | $0.45 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Shelmet | Common | $0.44 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Salazzle | Holo Rare | $0.44 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Crawdaunt | Rare | $0.43 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Misdreavus | Common | $0.43 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Aron | Common | $0.43 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Swablu | Common | $0.43 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Staraptor | Rare | $0.43 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Alolan Graveler | Uncommon | $0.42 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Haunter | Uncommon | $0.42 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Oranguru | Rare | $0.42 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Magikarp | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Piloswine | Uncommon | $0.41 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Octillery | Rare | $0.40 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Mismagius | Rare | $0.40 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Jangmo-o | Common | $0.40 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Beedrill | Rare | $0.39 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Shellos | Common | $0.39 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Bewear | Holo Rare | $0.39 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Lusamine | Uncommon | $0.39 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Kakuna | Uncommon | $0.38 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Gastrodon | Uncommon | $0.38 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Staryu | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Remoraid | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Registeel | Rare | $0.37 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Psychic Memory | Uncommon | $0.37 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Karrablast | Common | $0.36 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Deino | Common | $0.36 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Pumpkaboo | Common | $0.35 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Camerupt | Rare | $0.34 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Corphish | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Spoink | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Chimecho | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Zweilous | Uncommon | $0.34 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Exeggcute | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Cacturne | Rare | $0.33 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Numel | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Lairon | Uncommon | $0.33 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Starly | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Devoured Field | Uncommon | $0.33 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Cacnea | Common | $0.32 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Mamoswine | Rare | $0.32 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Cinccino | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Octillery | Rare | $0.31 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Gastly | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Grumpig | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Oranguru | Rare | $0.31 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Regirock | Rare | $0.31 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Bunnelby | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Sea of Nothingness | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Swinub | Common | $0.30 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Escavalier | Rare | $0.30 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Crawdaunt | Rare | $0.29 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Diggersby | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Alolan Geodude | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Emolga | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Gourgeist | Rare | $0.28 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Salandit | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Gastrodon | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Hakamo-o | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Houndour | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Mawile | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Miltank | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Staraptor | Rare | $0.27 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Staryu | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Shellos | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Hydreigon | Rare | $0.26 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Starly | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Minccino | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Devoured Field | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Skiddo | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Camerupt | Rare | $0.25 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Peeking Red Card | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Weedle | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Kakuna | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Feebas | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Stufful | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Cacnea | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Jangmo-o | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Alolan Graveler | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Misdreavus | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Spoink | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Piloswine | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Mankey | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Escavalier | Rare | $0.21 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Pumpkaboo | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Swablu | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Diggersby | Uncommon | $0.20 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Exeggcute | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Alolan Geodude | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Psychic Memory | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Remoraid | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Corphish | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Grumpig | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Chimecho | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Deino | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Zweilous | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Dashing Pouch | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Sea of Nothingness | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Shelmet | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Skiddo | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Aron | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Peeking Red Card | Uncommon | $0.17 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Staravia | Uncommon | $0.17 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Numel | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Dashing Pouch | Uncommon | $0.16 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Accelgor | Uncommon | $0.15 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Karrablast | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Bunnelby | Common | $0.07 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Fighting Memory | Uncommon | $0.07 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Lairon | Uncommon | $0.05 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Salandit | Common | $0.03 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |