SM - Crimson Invasion
A $18.58 SM - Crimson Invasion pack returns $5.84 in expected card value on average — 31% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers SM - Crimson Invasion, so these odds come from elitefourum.com, which discloses a 1,530-pack sample. A stated count is the difference between a measured rate and a confident guess, so it is recorded here whenever a source gives one.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
- Pack EV: $5.84
- Cheapest pack: $18.58 (Crimson Invasion 3 Pack Blister [Decidueye])
- Cards: 124 (216 versions)
Products in this set
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crimson Invasion 3 Pack Blister [Decidueye] | $55.74 | $17.51 | 31% |
| Crimson Invasion Booster Box | $672.62 | $210.08 | 31% |
| Crimson Invasion Booster Pack | $19.13 | $5.84 | 31% |
| Crimson Invasion Elite Trainer Box | $224.71 | $52.52 | 23% |
| Crimson Invasion Single Pack Blister [Dhelmise] | $33.07 | $5.84 | 18% |
| Crimson Invasion Single Pack Blister [Golisopod] | $33.95 | $5.84 | 17% |
| Ultra Beasts GX Premium Collection [Pheromosa GX & Celesteela GX] | $440.65 | $46.69 | 11% |
| Ultra Beasts GX Premium Collection [Buzzwole GX & Xurkitree GX] | — | $46.69 | TBD |
| Crimson Invasion 3 Pack Blister [Lucario] | — | $17.51 | TBD |
Where to buy
Crimson Invasion 3 Pack Blister [Decidueye] · Crimson Invasion Booster Box · Crimson Invasion Booster Pack · Crimson Invasion Elite Trainer Box · Crimson Invasion Single Pack Blister [Dhelmise] · Crimson Invasion Single Pack Blister [Golisopod] · Ultra Beasts GX Premium Collection [Pheromosa GX & Celesteela GX] · Ultra Beasts GX Premium Collection [Buzzwole GX & Xurkitree GX] · Crimson Invasion 3 Pack Blister [Lucario]
Expected return by product type
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Box | $18.68 | 31% |
| Booster Pack | $19.13 | 31% |
| Elite Trainer Box | $24.97 | 23% |
Pull rates (source: community_estimate)
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Secret Rare | 1.11% | n=1530 |
| Ultra Rare | 4.44% | n=1530 |
| Holo Rare | 18.18% | |
| Rare | 66.67% | |
| Common | 500% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
Cards & odds
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gyarados GX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $84.18 | 1 in 1171 (0.09%) | $21654.95 |
| Lusamine (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $43.60 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7912.39 |
| Gyarados GX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $28.05 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7912.39 |
| Alolan Exeggutor GX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $21.82 | 1 in 1171 (0.09%) | $21654.95 |
| Gyarados GX | Ultra Rare | $20.61 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7912.39 |
| Olivia (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $19.06 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7912.39 |
| Nihilego GX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $18.29 | 1 in 1171 (0.09%) | $21654.95 |
| Water Energy (Secret) | Secret Rare | $17.30 | 1 in 1171 (0.09%) | $21654.95 |
| Gladion (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $16.84 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7912.39 |
| Buzzwole GX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $16.42 | 1 in 1171 (0.09%) | $21654.95 |
| Guzzlord GX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $15.12 | 1 in 1171 (0.09%) | $21654.95 |
| Silvally GX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $14.66 | 1 in 1171 (0.09%) | $21654.95 |
| Alolan Golem GX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $12.57 | 1 in 1171 (0.09%) | $21654.95 |
| Kartana GX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $11.56 | 1 in 1171 (0.09%) | $21654.95 |
| Nihilego GX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $11.52 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7912.39 |
| Nihilego GX | Ultra Rare | $9.69 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7912.39 |
| Buzzwole GX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $8.71 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7912.39 |
| Guzzlord GX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $7.89 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7912.39 |
| Counter Energy (Secret) | Secret Rare | $7.22 | 1 in 1171 (0.09%) | $21654.95 |
| Guzzlord GX | Ultra Rare | $6.52 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7912.39 |
| Alolan Exeggutor GX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $6.49 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7912.39 |
| Silvally GX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $5.81 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7912.39 |
| Kartana GX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $5.58 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7912.39 |
| Counter Catcher (Secret) | Secret Rare | $5.06 | 1 in 1171 (0.09%) | $21654.95 |
| Alolan Golem GX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $4.84 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7912.39 |
| Warp Energy (Secret) | Secret Rare | $4.47 | 1 in 1171 (0.09%) | $21654.95 |
| Buzzwole GX | Ultra Rare | $4.28 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7912.39 |
| Wishful Baton (Secret) | Secret Rare | $4.00 | 1 in 1171 (0.09%) | $21654.95 |
| Alolan Exeggutor GX | Ultra Rare | $3.25 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7912.39 |
| Kartana GX | Ultra Rare | $3.21 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7912.39 |
| Silvally GX | Ultra Rare | $2.46 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7912.39 |
| Alolan Golem GX | Ultra Rare | $2.40 | 1 in 428 (0.23%) | $7912.39 |
| Gengar | Holo Rare | $32.32 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Gengar | Holo Rare | $28.96 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Pikachu | Common | $16.32 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Wigglytuff | Rare | $6.12 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Haunter | Uncommon | $3.85 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Starmie | Rare | $3.46 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Alolan Raichu | Holo Rare | $3.31 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Counter Catcher | Uncommon | $2.59 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Primeape | Rare | $2.54 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Wigglytuff | Rare | $2.43 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Alolan Raichu | Holo Rare | $2.32 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Kommo-o | Rare | $2.27 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Pikachu | Common | $2.22 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Alolan Marowak | Holo Rare | $2.03 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Counter Energy | Uncommon | $2.02 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Xerneas | Holo Rare | $1.88 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Magikarp | Common | $1.75 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Jigglypuff | Common | $1.75 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Houndoom | Rare | $1.70 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Xerneas | Holo Rare | $1.55 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Cubone | Common | $1.48 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Gladion | Uncommon | $1.39 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Kommo-o | Rare | $1.26 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Primeape | Rare | $1.24 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Starmie | Rare | $1.16 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Lusamine | Uncommon | $1.13 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Aggron | Holo Rare | $1.07 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Type: Null | Holo Rare | $1.07 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Milotic | Holo Rare | $0.94 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Alolan Marowak | Holo Rare | $0.90 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Jigglypuff | Common | $0.87 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Gastrodon | Uncommon | $0.86 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Milotic | Holo Rare | $0.74 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Cinccino | Uncommon | $0.72 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Registeel | Rare | $0.71 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Regice | Holo Rare | $0.70 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Altaria | Rare | $0.70 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Regice | Holo Rare | $0.68 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Hydreigon | Rare | $0.68 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Type: Null | Holo Rare | $0.68 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Cubone | Common | $0.67 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Counter Energy | Uncommon | $0.67 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Mismagius | Rare | $0.66 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Staravia | Uncommon | $0.66 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Gastly | Common | $0.65 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Regigigas | Holo Rare | $0.65 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Houndoom | Rare | $0.63 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Miltank | Uncommon | $0.63 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Cacturne | Rare | $0.62 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Mawile | Uncommon | $0.60 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Hakamo-o | Uncommon | $0.60 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Aggron | Holo Rare | $0.57 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Swinub | Common | $0.56 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Bewear | Holo Rare | $0.56 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Mamoswine | Rare | $0.55 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Regigigas | Holo Rare | $0.55 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Lusamine | Uncommon | $0.55 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Beedrill | Rare | $0.51 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Shelmet | Common | $0.50 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Regirock | Rare | $0.50 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Minccino | Common | $0.50 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Crawdaunt | Rare | $0.49 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Emolga | Uncommon | $0.49 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Fighting Memory | Uncommon | $0.48 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Houndour | Common | $0.47 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Swablu | Common | $0.47 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Altaria | Rare | $0.47 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Staraptor | Rare | $0.47 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Counter Catcher | Uncommon | $0.47 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Gladion | Uncommon | $0.47 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Weedle | Common | $0.46 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Octillery | Rare | $0.46 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Feebas | Common | $0.45 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Gourgeist | Rare | $0.45 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Stufful | Common | $0.45 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Gogoat | Holo Rare | $0.44 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Staryu | Common | $0.44 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Salazzle | Holo Rare | $0.44 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Gogoat | Holo Rare | $0.43 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Misdreavus | Common | $0.43 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Salazzle | Holo Rare | $0.43 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Bewear | Holo Rare | $0.43 | 1 in 66 (1.52%) | $1146.42 |
| Accelgor | Uncommon | $0.42 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Mankey | Common | $0.42 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Kakuna | Uncommon | $0.41 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Piloswine | Uncommon | $0.40 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Remoraid | Common | $0.40 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Oranguru | Rare | $0.40 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Jangmo-o | Common | $0.40 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Alolan Graveler | Uncommon | $0.39 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Mismagius | Rare | $0.39 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Magikarp | Common | $0.38 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Shellos | Common | $0.38 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Aron | Common | $0.38 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Psychic Memory | Uncommon | $0.38 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Exeggcute | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Cacturne | Rare | $0.37 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Deino | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Beedrill | Rare | $0.36 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Cacnea | Common | $0.36 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Miltank | Uncommon | $0.36 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Karrablast | Common | $0.35 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Numel | Common | $0.35 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Mamoswine | Rare | $0.35 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Crawdaunt | Rare | $0.35 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Zweilous | Uncommon | $0.35 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Lairon | Uncommon | $0.35 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Registeel | Rare | $0.35 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Starly | Common | $0.35 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Devoured Field | Uncommon | $0.35 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Camerupt | Rare | $0.34 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Corphish | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Haunter | Uncommon | $0.34 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Pumpkaboo | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Spoink | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Octillery | Rare | $0.32 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Alolan Geodude | Common | $0.32 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Chimecho | Common | $0.32 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Salandit | Common | $0.32 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Escavalier | Rare | $0.32 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Hakamo-o | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Sea of Nothingness | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Gastly | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Grumpig | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Hydreigon | Rare | $0.31 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Cinccino | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Oranguru | Rare | $0.30 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Staraptor | Rare | $0.30 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Diggersby | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Swinub | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Gourgeist | Rare | $0.29 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Weedle | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Skiddo | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Regirock | Rare | $0.28 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Kakuna | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Bunnelby | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Emolga | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Grumpig | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Stufful | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Peeking Red Card | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Mawile | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Minccino | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Camerupt | Rare | $0.24 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Pumpkaboo | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Gastrodon | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Escavalier | Rare | $0.24 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $521.02 |
| Jangmo-o | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Houndour | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Devoured Field | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Feebas | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Chimecho | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Deino | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Swablu | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Misdreavus | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Mankey | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Cacnea | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Karrablast | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Shelmet | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Skiddo | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Staryu | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Piloswine | Uncommon | $0.20 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Alolan Graveler | Uncommon | $0.20 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Exeggcute | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Spoink | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Starly | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Diggersby | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Staravia | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Alolan Geodude | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Dashing Pouch | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Dashing Pouch | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Zweilous | Uncommon | $0.17 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Aron | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Psychic Memory | Uncommon | $0.17 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Remoraid | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Shellos | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Peeking Red Card | Uncommon | $0.16 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Accelgor | Uncommon | $0.15 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Sea of Nothingness | Uncommon | $0.15 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Numel | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Corphish | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Lairon | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Fighting Memory | Uncommon | $0.11 | 1 in 9 (11.54%) | $150.53 |
| Bunnelby | Common | $0.10 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |
| Salandit | Common | $0.08 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $118.10 |