A $9.74 Shrouded Fable pack returns $5.43 in expected card value on average — 56% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers Shrouded Fable, so these odds come from pokepatch.com, which discloses a 1,000-pack sample. Sources that do not state how many packs they counted are not used here, however confident they sound.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shrouded Fable Mini Tin (Munkidori) | $19.47 | $10.85 | 56% |
| Shrouded Fable Booster Bundle | $59.63 | $32.56 | 55% |
| Shrouded Fable Mini Tin (Okidogi) | $21.99 | $10.85 | 49% |
| Shrouded Fable Mini Tin (Dusknoir) | $22.46 | $10.85 | 48% |
| Shrouded Fable 3 Pack Blister [Pecharunt] | $34.67 | $16.28 | 47% |
| Shrouded Fable Mini Tin (Fezandipiti) | $23.58 | $10.85 | 46% |
| Shrouded Fable Elite Trainer Box | $112.61 | $48.83 | 43% |
| Shrouded Fable Booster Pack | $14.45 | $5.43 | 38% |
| Shrouded Fable Mini Tin (Zoroark) | $30.73 | $10.85 | 35% |
| Shrouded Fable Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box (Exclusive) | $166.35 | $48.83 | 29% |
Shrouded Fable Mini Tin (Munkidori) · Shrouded Fable Booster Bundle · Shrouded Fable Mini Tin (Okidogi) · Shrouded Fable Mini Tin (Dusknoir) · Shrouded Fable 3 Pack Blister [Pecharunt] · Shrouded Fable Mini Tin (Fezandipiti) · Shrouded Fable Elite Trainer Box · Shrouded Fable Booster Pack · Shrouded Fable Mini Tin (Zoroark) · Shrouded Fable Pokemon Center Elite Trainer Box (Exclusive)
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Bundle | $9.94 | 55% |
| Elite Trainer Box | $12.51 | 43% |
| Booster Pack | $14.45 | 38% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Hyper Rare | 0.7% | n=1000 |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1.5% | n=1000 |
| ACE SPEC Rare | 5% | n=1000 |
| Ultra Rare | 6.5% | n=1000 |
| Illustration Rare | 8.5% | n=1000 |
| Rare | 76.92% | |
| Common | 400% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persian - 078/064 | Illustration Rare | $75.01 | 1 in 176 (0.57%) | $1717.94 |
| Basic Darkness Energy | Hyper Rare | $60.25 | 1 in 714 (0.14%) | $6953.57 |
| Houndoom - 066/064 | Illustration Rare | $57.61 | 1 in 176 (0.57%) | $1717.94 |
| Horsea - 067/064 | Illustration Rare | $52.39 | 1 in 176 (0.57%) | $1717.94 |
| Duskull - 068/064 | Illustration Rare | $47.57 | 1 in 176 (0.57%) | $1717.94 |
| Cassiopeia - 094/064 | Special Illustration Rare | $41.23 | 1 in 333 (0.3%) | $3245.00 |
| Fezandipiti ex - 092/064 | Special Illustration Rare | $35.96 | 1 in 333 (0.3%) | $3245.00 |
| Dusknoir - 070/064 | Illustration Rare | $32.67 | 1 in 176 (0.57%) | $1717.94 |
| Basic Metal Energy | Hyper Rare | $32.06 | 1 in 714 (0.14%) | $6953.57 |
| Munkidori | Illustration Rare | $30.48 | 1 in 176 (0.57%) | $1717.94 |
| Dusclops - 069/064 | Illustration Rare | $29.60 | 1 in 176 (0.57%) | $1717.94 |
| Bewear - 079/064 | Illustration Rare | $26.61 | 1 in 176 (0.57%) | $1717.94 |
| Cresselia - 071/064 | Illustration Rare | $26.45 | 1 in 176 (0.57%) | $1717.94 |
| Zorua - 075/064 | Illustration Rare | $26.05 | 1 in 176 (0.57%) | $1717.94 |
| Pecharunt ex - 093/064 | Special Illustration Rare | $25.55 | 1 in 333 (0.3%) | $3245.00 |
| Okidogi ex - 090/064 | Special Illustration Rare | $22.32 | 1 in 333 (0.3%) | $3245.00 |
| Pecharunt ex - 095/064 | Hyper Rare | $21.38 | 1 in 714 (0.14%) | $6953.57 |
| Powerglass - 097/064 | Hyper Rare | $19.35 | 1 in 714 (0.14%) | $6953.57 |
| Munkidori ex - 091/064 | Special Illustration Rare | $18.46 | 1 in 333 (0.3%) | $3245.00 |
| Fraxure - 077/064 | Illustration Rare | $17.57 | 1 in 176 (0.57%) | $1717.94 |
| Cufant - 076/064 | Illustration Rare | $16.68 | 1 in 176 (0.57%) | $1717.94 |
| Earthen Vessel | Hyper Rare | $16.53 | 1 in 714 (0.14%) | $6953.57 |
| Okidogi | Illustration Rare | $16.33 | 1 in 176 (0.57%) | $1717.94 |
| Fezandipiti | Illustration Rare | $12.97 | 1 in 176 (0.57%) | $1717.94 |
| Tapu Bulu - 065/064 | Illustration Rare | $12.62 | 1 in 176 (0.57%) | $1717.94 |
| Fezandipiti ex - 084/064 | Ultra Rare | $11.52 | 1 in 154 (0.65%) | $1497.69 |
| Xerosic's Machinations - 089/064 | Ultra Rare | $9.11 | 1 in 154 (0.65%) | $1497.69 |
| Pecharunt ex - 039/064 | Double Rare | $8.06 | TBD | TBD |
| Pecharunt ex - 085/064 | Ultra Rare | $7.98 | 1 in 154 (0.65%) | $1497.69 |
| Colress's Tenacity - 087/064 | Ultra Rare | $6.75 | 1 in 154 (0.65%) | $1497.69 |
| Janine's Secret Art - 088/064 | Ultra Rare | $5.69 | 1 in 154 (0.65%) | $1497.69 |
| Kingdra ex - 080/064 | Ultra Rare | $3.89 | 1 in 154 (0.65%) | $1497.69 |
| Fezandipiti ex - 038/064 | Double Rare | $3.73 | TBD | TBD |
| Cassiopeia - 086/064 | Ultra Rare | $3.72 | 1 in 154 (0.65%) | $1497.69 |
| Okidogi ex - 082/064 | Ultra Rare | $2.28 | 1 in 154 (0.65%) | $1497.69 |
| Munkidori ex - 083/064 | Ultra Rare | $2.28 | 1 in 154 (0.65%) | $1497.69 |
| Revavroom ex - 081/064 | Ultra Rare | $1.53 | 1 in 154 (0.65%) | $1497.69 |
| Neutralization Zone | ACE SPEC Rare | $1.07 | 1 in 60 (1.67%) | $584.10 |
| Okidogi ex - 036/064 | Double Rare | $0.74 | TBD | TBD |
| Kingdra ex - 012/064 | Double Rare | $0.70 | TBD | TBD |
| Revavroom ex - 015/064 | Double Rare | $0.62 | TBD | TBD |
| Munkidori ex - 037/064 | Double Rare | $0.61 | TBD | TBD |
| Poke Vital A | ACE SPEC Rare | $0.51 | 1 in 60 (1.67%) | $584.10 |
| Dangerous Laser | ACE SPEC Rare | $0.50 | 1 in 60 (1.67%) | $584.10 |
| Night Stretcher | Uncommon | $1.31 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Sylveon | Uncommon | $0.61 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Basic Darkness Energy (Reverse Holofoil) | Common | $0.58 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Eevee | Common | $0.54 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Colress's Tenacity - 057/064 | Uncommon | $0.45 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Basic Grass Energy | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Basic Psychic Energy | Common | $0.39 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Basic Fire Energy | Common | $0.38 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Basic Water Energy | Common | $0.38 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Basic Fighting Energy | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Basic Metal Energy (Reverse Holofoil) | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Xerosic's Machinations - 064/064 | Uncommon | $0.36 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Kyurem | Uncommon | $0.34 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Academy at Night | Uncommon | $0.33 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Basic Lightning Energy | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Absol | Common | $0.32 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Tapu Bulu - 006/064 | Rare | $0.31 | 1 in 9 (10.99%) | $86.91 |
| Iron Moth | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Night Stretcher | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Powerglass - 063/064 | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Houndoom - 008/064 | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Dusclops - 019/064 | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Dusknoir - 020/064 | Rare | $0.29 | 1 in 9 (10.99%) | $86.91 |
| Sylveon | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Slither Wing | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Eevee | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Duskull - 018/064 | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Zoroark | Rare | $0.27 | 1 in 9 (10.99%) | $86.91 |
| Genesect | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Binding Mochi | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Colress's Tenacity - 057/064 | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Rowlet | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Inkay | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Haxorus | Rare | $0.25 | 1 in 9 (10.99%) | $86.91 |
| Dartrix | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Meowth | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Houndour | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Hypno | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Dusknoir - 020/064 | Rare | $0.23 | 1 in 9 (10.99%) | $86.91 |
| Golbat | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Crobat | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Haxorus | Rare | $0.23 | 1 in 9 (10.99%) | $86.91 |
| Stufful | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Horsea - 010/064 | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Drowzee | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Duskull - 018/064 | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Cresselia - 021/064 | Rare | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (10.99%) | $86.91 |
| Zorua - 031/064 | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Copperajah | Rare | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (10.99%) | $86.91 |
| Janine's Secret Art - 059/064 | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Powerglass - 063/064 | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Xerosic's Machinations - 064/064 | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Joltik | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Zubat | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Yveltal | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Axew | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Fraxure - 045/064 | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Seadra | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Cresselia - 021/064 | Rare | $0.20 | 1 in 9 (10.99%) | $86.91 |
| Toxicroak | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Bloodmoon Ursaluna | Rare | $0.20 | 1 in 9 (10.99%) | $86.91 |
| Meowth | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Academy at Night | Uncommon | $0.20 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Galvantula | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Decidueye | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Weavile | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Bloodmoon Ursaluna | Rare | $0.19 | 1 in 9 (10.99%) | $86.91 |
| Zoroark | Rare | $0.19 | 1 in 9 (10.99%) | $86.91 |
| Malamar | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Genesect | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Cassiopeia - 056/064 | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Decidueye | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Dusclops - 019/064 | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Zorua - 031/064 | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Varoom | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Bewear - 053/064 | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Janine's Secret Art - 059/064 | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Tapu Bulu - 006/064 | Rare | $0.17 | 1 in 9 (10.99%) | $86.91 |
| Iron Moth | Uncommon | $0.17 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Croagunk | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Cufant - 041/064 | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Kyurem | Uncommon | $0.17 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Persian - 049/064 | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Joltik | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Slither Wing | Uncommon | $0.16 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Absol | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Houndoom - 008/064 | Common | $0.15 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Fraxure - 045/064 | Common | $0.15 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Rowlet | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Sneasel | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Zubat | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Golbat | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Binding Mochi | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Galvantula | Uncommon | $0.13 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Dartrix | Common | $0.13 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Inkay | Common | $0.13 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Drowzee | Common | $0.12 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Furfrou | Common | $0.12 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Furfrou | Common | $0.12 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Seadra | Common | $0.11 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Hypno | Uncommon | $0.11 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Persian - 049/064 | Common | $0.11 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Cassiopeia - 056/064 | Uncommon | $0.11 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Crobat | Uncommon | $0.10 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Axew | Common | $0.10 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Houndour | Common | $0.09 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Cufant - 041/064 | Common | $0.09 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Sneasel | Common | $0.08 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Yveltal | Uncommon | $0.06 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Copperajah | Rare | $0.06 | 1 in 9 (10.99%) | $86.91 |
| Croagunk | Common | $0.04 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Toxicroak | Common | $0.04 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Malamar | Uncommon | $0.04 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Varoom | Common | $0.04 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Stufful | Common | $0.04 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Horsea - 010/064 | Common | $0.03 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |
| Weavile | Uncommon | $0.02 | 1 in 7 (15%) | $63.67 |
| Bewear - 053/064 | Common | $0.02 | 1 in 9 (11.11%) | $85.95 |