Sets / XY - Ancient Origins

XY - Ancient Origins

A $140.02 XY - Ancient Origins pack returns $28.29 in expected card value on average — 20% of what you paid.

No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers XY - Ancient Origins, so these odds come from thepricedex.com, which discloses a disclosed sample. Sources that do not state how many packs they counted are not used here, however confident they sound.

How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.

Products in this set

ProductPriceExpected valueExpected return
XY Ancient Origins Booster Pack$140.02$28.2920%
Powers Beyond Tin [Latios EX]$549.99$84.8615%
Powers Beyond Tin [Hoopa EX]—$84.86TBD
Ancient Origins Elite Trainer Box—$254.58TBD
Powers Beyond Tin [Rayquaza EX]—$84.86TBD
Ancient Origins Single Pack Blister [Fearow]—$28.29TBD
Ancient Origins 3 Pack Blister [Malamar]—$84.86TBD
Ancient Origins Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Shiny Mega Rayquaza Pin]—$84.86TBD
Ancient Origins Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Tyranitar Pin]—$84.86TBD
XY Ancient Origins Booster Box—$1018.31TBD
Ancient Origins Single Pack Blister [Blissey]—$28.29TBD
Ancient Origins 3 Pack Blister [Salamence]—$84.86TBD

Where to buy

XY Ancient Origins Booster Pack · Powers Beyond Tin [Latios EX] · Powers Beyond Tin [Hoopa EX] · Ancient Origins Elite Trainer Box · Powers Beyond Tin [Rayquaza EX] · Ancient Origins Single Pack Blister [Fearow] · Ancient Origins 3 Pack Blister [Malamar] · Ancient Origins Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Shiny Mega Rayquaza Pin] · Ancient Origins Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Tyranitar Pin] · XY Ancient Origins Booster Box · Ancient Origins Single Pack Blister [Blissey] · Ancient Origins 3 Pack Blister [Salamence]

Expected return by product type

ProductPrice per packExpected return
Booster Pack$140.0220%

Pull rates (source: community_estimate)

RarityPull rateSample
Secret Rare2%
Holo Rare15.63%
Ultra Rare15.78%
Rare66.67%
Common500%
Uncommon300%

Cards & odds

CardRarityMarket priceOddsCost to pull
M Rayquaza EX (Shiny Full Art)Ultra Rare$1112.001 in 165 (0.61%)$23070.47
Primal Kyogre EX (Shiny Full Art)Ultra Rare$449.741 in 165 (0.61%)$23070.47
Primal Groudon EX (Shiny Full Art)Ultra Rare$332.641 in 165 (0.61%)$23070.47
Lugia EX (94 Full Art)Ultra Rare$211.791 in 165 (0.61%)$23070.47
Giratina EX (93 Full Art)Ultra Rare$153.211 in 165 (0.61%)$23070.47
M Sceptile EX (85 Full Art)Ultra Rare$119.481 in 165 (0.61%)$23070.47
M Tyranitar EX (92 Full Art)Ultra Rare$113.441 in 165 (0.61%)$23070.47
Tyranitar EX (91 Full Art)Ultra Rare$105.341 in 165 (0.61%)$23070.47
M Ampharos EX (88 Full Art)Ultra Rare$78.351 in 165 (0.61%)$23070.47
Sceptile EX (84 Full Art)Ultra Rare$63.791 in 165 (0.61%)$23070.47
Hoopa EX (89 Full Art)Ultra Rare$54.961 in 165 (0.61%)$23070.47
Ampharos EX (87 Full Art)Ultra Rare$51.301 in 165 (0.61%)$23070.47
Steven (Full Art)Ultra Rare$40.081 in 165 (0.61%)$23070.47
Kyurem EX (86 Full Art)Ultra Rare$36.911 in 165 (0.61%)$23070.47
M Tyranitar EXUltra Rare$30.411 in 165 (0.61%)$23070.47
Machamp EX (90 Full Art)Ultra Rare$28.721 in 165 (0.61%)$23070.47
Giratina EXUltra Rare$25.661 in 165 (0.61%)$23070.47
M Sceptile EXUltra Rare$23.861 in 165 (0.61%)$23070.47
Energy RetrievalSecret Rare$21.131 in 100 (1%)$14002.00
M Ampharos EXUltra Rare$18.281 in 165 (0.61%)$23070.47
Lugia EXUltra Rare$16.131 in 165 (0.61%)$23070.47
Tyranitar EXUltra Rare$12.091 in 165 (0.61%)$23070.47
Sceptile EXUltra Rare$8.311 in 165 (0.61%)$23070.47
Ampharos EXUltra Rare$7.241 in 165 (0.61%)$23070.47
Trainers' Mail (Secret)Secret Rare$7.011 in 100 (1%)$14002.00
Hoopa EXUltra Rare$6.631 in 165 (0.61%)$23070.47
Machamp EXUltra Rare$4.941 in 165 (0.61%)$23070.47
Kyurem EXUltra Rare$4.241 in 165 (0.61%)$23070.47
Gyarados (21)Holo Rare$66.281 in 51 (1.95%)$5971.25
Gyarados (21)Holo Rare$64.631 in 51 (1.95%)$5971.25
Entei (15)Holo Rare$11.821 in 51 (1.95%)$5971.25
Entei (15)Holo Rare$11.761 in 51 (1.95%)$5971.25
Metagross (50)Rare$10.011 in 19 (5.13%)$2274.82
GardevoirHolo Rare$8.881 in 51 (1.95%)$5971.25
Lucky HelmetUncommon$7.951 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
GardevoirHolo Rare$6.981 in 51 (1.95%)$5971.25
Metagross (50)Rare$5.351 in 19 (5.13%)$2274.82
FlareonUncommon$4.961 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
Gyarados (20)Rare$4.941 in 19 (5.13%)$2274.82
JolteonHolo Rare$4.841 in 51 (1.95%)$5971.25
MagikarpCommon$4.661 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
Hex ManiacUncommon$4.271 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
Porygon-Z (67)Holo Rare$4.121 in 51 (1.95%)$5971.25
JolteonHolo Rare$4.021 in 51 (1.95%)$5971.25
Volcarona (18)Rare$3.471 in 19 (5.13%)$2274.82
Porygon-Z (67)Holo Rare$3.171 in 51 (1.95%)$5971.25
VaporeonUncommon$3.151 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
Entei (14)Rare$3.081 in 19 (5.13%)$2274.82
Golurk (35)Rare$3.011 in 19 (5.13%)$2274.82
Hex ManiacUncommon$2.671 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
WooperCommon$2.631 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
GoodraHolo Rare$2.411 in 51 (1.95%)$5971.25
GoodraHolo Rare$2.071 in 51 (1.95%)$5971.25
QuagsireCommon$2.061 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
VileplumeRare$1.931 in 19 (5.13%)$2274.82
Vespiquen (11)Rare$1.891 in 19 (5.13%)$2274.82
EeveeCommon$1.681 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
InkayCommon$1.631 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
BellossomUncommon$1.441 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
BeldumCommon$1.211 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
Porygon-Z (66)Rare$1.101 in 19 (5.13%)$2274.82
Gyarados (20)Rare$1.091 in 19 (5.13%)$2274.82
VaporeonUncommon$1.081 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
Volcarona (18)Rare$1.001 in 19 (5.13%)$2274.82
WhimsicottUncommon$0.961 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
Level BallUncommon$0.961 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
FlareonUncommon$0.921 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
MeowthCommon$0.891 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
Volcarona (17)Holo Rare$0.881 in 51 (1.95%)$5971.25
Volcarona (17)Holo Rare$0.851 in 51 (1.95%)$5971.25
UnownCommon$0.821 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
RegiceRare$0.801 in 19 (5.13%)$2274.82
RaltsCommon$0.801 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
GoomyCommon$0.791 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
Metagross (49)Rare$0.761 in 19 (5.13%)$2274.82
OddishCommon$0.751 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
Tyranitar Spirit LinkUncommon$0.731 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
CottoneeCommon$0.721 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
KirliaUncommon$0.711 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
PorygonCommon$0.711 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
RegisteelRare$0.691 in 19 (5.13%)$2274.82
BellossomUncommon$0.671 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
VirizionHolo Rare$0.671 in 51 (1.95%)$5971.25
RegirockRare$0.671 in 19 (5.13%)$2274.82
SliggooUncommon$0.661 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
VirizionHolo Rare$0.641 in 51 (1.95%)$5971.25
Baltoy (32)Common$0.641 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
Porygon2Uncommon$0.641 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
Energy RecyclerUncommon$0.641 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
SableyeUncommon$0.621 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
PersianCommon$0.611 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
Ampharos Spirit LinkUncommon$0.611 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
ClaydolRare$0.601 in 19 (5.13%)$2274.82
Vespiquen (11)Rare$0.561 in 19 (5.13%)$2274.82
LysandreUncommon$0.561 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
Forest of Giant PlantsUncommon$0.521 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
GloomUncommon$0.511 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
Golurk (35)Rare$0.511 in 19 (5.13%)$2274.82
VileplumeRare$0.501 in 19 (5.13%)$2274.82
MetangUncommon$0.501 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
Dangerous EnergyUncommon$0.491 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
EeveeCommon$0.481 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
Flash EnergyUncommon$0.481 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
Entei (14)Rare$0.471 in 19 (5.13%)$2274.82
CombeeCommon$0.461 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
UnownCommon$0.441 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
BeldumCommon$0.441 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
AriadosUncommon$0.431 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
KirliaUncommon$0.431 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
GolettCommon$0.421 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
Golurk (41)Common$0.421 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
SpinarakCommon$0.411 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
RelicanthCommon$0.401 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
MalamarCommon$0.401 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
RaltsCommon$0.391 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
CottoneeCommon$0.391 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
Porygon-Z (66)Rare$0.391 in 19 (5.13%)$2274.82
Ace TrainerUncommon$0.391 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
QuagsireCommon$0.381 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
Eco ArmUncommon$0.381 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
Sceptile Spirit LinkUncommon$0.381 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
OddishCommon$0.371 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
Vespiquen (10)Uncommon$0.371 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
WooperCommon$0.371 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
LarvestaCommon$0.361 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
Level BallUncommon$0.361 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
Faded TownUncommon$0.341 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
Tyranitar Spirit LinkUncommon$0.341 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
WhimsicottUncommon$0.331 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
Ampharos Spirit LinkUncommon$0.321 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
Forest of Giant PlantsUncommon$0.321 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
MeowthCommon$0.311 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
Baltoy (31)Common$0.301 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
Lucky HelmetUncommon$0.301 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
Paint RollerUncommon$0.301 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
Metagross (49)Rare$0.291 in 19 (5.13%)$2274.82
Baltoy (32)Common$0.281 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
Flash EnergyUncommon$0.281 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
SliggooUncommon$0.271 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
RegiceRare$0.251 in 19 (5.13%)$2274.82
RotomUncommon$0.251 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
SableyeUncommon$0.251 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
PorygonCommon$0.251 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
Dangerous EnergyUncommon$0.251 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
MagikarpCommon$0.241 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
Sceptile Spirit LinkUncommon$0.241 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
GoomyCommon$0.231 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
Eco ArmUncommon$0.221 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
LysandreUncommon$0.211 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
Porygon2Uncommon$0.191 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
Energy RecyclerUncommon$0.191 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
RegirockRare$0.161 in 19 (5.13%)$2274.82
GloomUncommon$0.151 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
ClaydolRare$0.151 in 19 (5.13%)$2274.82
Vespiquen (10)Uncommon$0.141 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
RotomUncommon$0.141 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
RegisteelRare$0.141 in 19 (5.13%)$2274.82
RelicanthCommon$0.131 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
Faded TownUncommon$0.121 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
InkayCommon$0.111 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
AriadosUncommon$0.101 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
PersianCommon$0.091 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
LarvestaCommon$0.081 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
GolettCommon$0.081 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
MetangUncommon$0.071 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
Ace TrainerUncommon$0.071 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
Paint RollerUncommon$0.071 in 9 (10.71%)$1088.86
SpinarakCommon$0.061 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
Golurk (41)Common$0.051 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
MalamarCommon$0.051 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
CombeeCommon$0.041 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65
Baltoy (31)Common$0.041 in 5 (21.74%)$536.65