A $140.02 XY - Ancient Origins pack returns $28.29 in expected card value on average — 20% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers XY - Ancient Origins, so these odds come from thepricedex.com, which discloses a disclosed sample. Sources that do not state how many packs they counted are not used here, however confident they sound.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| XY Ancient Origins Booster Pack | $140.02 | $28.29 | 20% |
| Powers Beyond Tin [Latios EX] | $549.99 | $84.86 | 15% |
| Powers Beyond Tin [Hoopa EX] | — | $84.86 | TBD |
| Ancient Origins Elite Trainer Box | — | $254.58 | TBD |
| Powers Beyond Tin [Rayquaza EX] | — | $84.86 | TBD |
| Ancient Origins Single Pack Blister [Fearow] | — | $28.29 | TBD |
| Ancient Origins 3 Pack Blister [Malamar] | — | $84.86 | TBD |
| Ancient Origins Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Shiny Mega Rayquaza Pin] | — | $84.86 | TBD |
| Ancient Origins Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Tyranitar Pin] | — | $84.86 | TBD |
| XY Ancient Origins Booster Box | — | $1018.31 | TBD |
| Ancient Origins Single Pack Blister [Blissey] | — | $28.29 | TBD |
| Ancient Origins 3 Pack Blister [Salamence] | — | $84.86 | TBD |
XY Ancient Origins Booster Pack · Powers Beyond Tin [Latios EX] · Powers Beyond Tin [Hoopa EX] · Ancient Origins Elite Trainer Box · Powers Beyond Tin [Rayquaza EX] · Ancient Origins Single Pack Blister [Fearow] · Ancient Origins 3 Pack Blister [Malamar] · Ancient Origins Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Shiny Mega Rayquaza Pin] · Ancient Origins Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Tyranitar Pin] · XY Ancient Origins Booster Box · Ancient Origins Single Pack Blister [Blissey] · Ancient Origins 3 Pack Blister [Salamence]
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $140.02 | 20% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Secret Rare | 2% | |
| Holo Rare | 15.63% | |
| Ultra Rare | 15.78% | |
| Rare | 66.67% | |
| Common | 500% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M Rayquaza EX (Shiny Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $1112.00 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $23070.47 |
| Primal Kyogre EX (Shiny Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $449.74 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $23070.47 |
| Primal Groudon EX (Shiny Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $332.64 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $23070.47 |
| Lugia EX (94 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $211.79 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $23070.47 |
| Giratina EX (93 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $153.21 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $23070.47 |
| M Sceptile EX (85 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $119.48 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $23070.47 |
| M Tyranitar EX (92 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $113.44 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $23070.47 |
| Tyranitar EX (91 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $105.34 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $23070.47 |
| M Ampharos EX (88 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $78.35 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $23070.47 |
| Sceptile EX (84 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $63.79 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $23070.47 |
| Hoopa EX (89 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $54.96 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $23070.47 |
| Ampharos EX (87 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $51.30 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $23070.47 |
| Steven (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $40.08 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $23070.47 |
| Kyurem EX (86 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $36.91 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $23070.47 |
| M Tyranitar EX | Ultra Rare | $30.41 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $23070.47 |
| Machamp EX (90 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $28.72 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $23070.47 |
| Giratina EX | Ultra Rare | $25.66 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $23070.47 |
| M Sceptile EX | Ultra Rare | $23.86 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $23070.47 |
| Energy Retrieval | Secret Rare | $21.13 | 1 in 100 (1%) | $14002.00 |
| M Ampharos EX | Ultra Rare | $18.28 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $23070.47 |
| Lugia EX | Ultra Rare | $16.13 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $23070.47 |
| Tyranitar EX | Ultra Rare | $12.09 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $23070.47 |
| Sceptile EX | Ultra Rare | $8.31 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $23070.47 |
| Ampharos EX | Ultra Rare | $7.24 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $23070.47 |
| Trainers' Mail (Secret) | Secret Rare | $7.01 | 1 in 100 (1%) | $14002.00 |
| Hoopa EX | Ultra Rare | $6.63 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $23070.47 |
| Machamp EX | Ultra Rare | $4.94 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $23070.47 |
| Kyurem EX | Ultra Rare | $4.24 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $23070.47 |
| Gyarados (21) | Holo Rare | $66.28 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Gyarados (21) | Holo Rare | $64.63 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Entei (15) | Holo Rare | $11.82 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Entei (15) | Holo Rare | $11.76 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Metagross (50) | Rare | $10.01 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Gardevoir | Holo Rare | $8.88 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Lucky Helmet | Uncommon | $7.95 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Gardevoir | Holo Rare | $6.98 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Metagross (50) | Rare | $5.35 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Flareon | Uncommon | $4.96 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Gyarados (20) | Rare | $4.94 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Jolteon | Holo Rare | $4.84 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Magikarp | Common | $4.66 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Hex Maniac | Uncommon | $4.27 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Porygon-Z (67) | Holo Rare | $4.12 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Jolteon | Holo Rare | $4.02 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Volcarona (18) | Rare | $3.47 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Porygon-Z (67) | Holo Rare | $3.17 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Vaporeon | Uncommon | $3.15 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Entei (14) | Rare | $3.08 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Golurk (35) | Rare | $3.01 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Hex Maniac | Uncommon | $2.67 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Wooper | Common | $2.63 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Goodra | Holo Rare | $2.41 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Goodra | Holo Rare | $2.07 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Quagsire | Common | $2.06 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Vileplume | Rare | $1.93 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Vespiquen (11) | Rare | $1.89 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Eevee | Common | $1.68 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Inkay | Common | $1.63 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Bellossom | Uncommon | $1.44 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Beldum | Common | $1.21 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Porygon-Z (66) | Rare | $1.10 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Gyarados (20) | Rare | $1.09 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Vaporeon | Uncommon | $1.08 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Volcarona (18) | Rare | $1.00 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Whimsicott | Uncommon | $0.96 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Level Ball | Uncommon | $0.96 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Flareon | Uncommon | $0.92 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Meowth | Common | $0.89 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Volcarona (17) | Holo Rare | $0.88 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Volcarona (17) | Holo Rare | $0.85 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Unown | Common | $0.82 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Regice | Rare | $0.80 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Ralts | Common | $0.80 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Goomy | Common | $0.79 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Metagross (49) | Rare | $0.76 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Oddish | Common | $0.75 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Tyranitar Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.73 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Cottonee | Common | $0.72 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Kirlia | Uncommon | $0.71 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Porygon | Common | $0.71 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Registeel | Rare | $0.69 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Bellossom | Uncommon | $0.67 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Virizion | Holo Rare | $0.67 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Regirock | Rare | $0.67 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Sliggoo | Uncommon | $0.66 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Virizion | Holo Rare | $0.64 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Baltoy (32) | Common | $0.64 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Porygon2 | Uncommon | $0.64 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Energy Recycler | Uncommon | $0.64 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Sableye | Uncommon | $0.62 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Persian | Common | $0.61 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Ampharos Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.61 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Claydol | Rare | $0.60 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Vespiquen (11) | Rare | $0.56 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Lysandre | Uncommon | $0.56 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Forest of Giant Plants | Uncommon | $0.52 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Gloom | Uncommon | $0.51 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Golurk (35) | Rare | $0.51 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Vileplume | Rare | $0.50 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Metang | Uncommon | $0.50 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Dangerous Energy | Uncommon | $0.49 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Eevee | Common | $0.48 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Flash Energy | Uncommon | $0.48 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Entei (14) | Rare | $0.47 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Combee | Common | $0.46 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Unown | Common | $0.44 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Beldum | Common | $0.44 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Ariados | Uncommon | $0.43 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Kirlia | Uncommon | $0.43 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Golett | Common | $0.42 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Golurk (41) | Common | $0.42 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Spinarak | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Relicanth | Common | $0.40 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Malamar | Common | $0.40 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Ralts | Common | $0.39 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Cottonee | Common | $0.39 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Porygon-Z (66) | Rare | $0.39 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Ace Trainer | Uncommon | $0.39 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Quagsire | Common | $0.38 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Eco Arm | Uncommon | $0.38 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Sceptile Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.38 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Oddish | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Vespiquen (10) | Uncommon | $0.37 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Wooper | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Larvesta | Common | $0.36 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Level Ball | Uncommon | $0.36 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Faded Town | Uncommon | $0.34 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Tyranitar Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.34 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Whimsicott | Uncommon | $0.33 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Ampharos Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Forest of Giant Plants | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Meowth | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Baltoy (31) | Common | $0.30 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Lucky Helmet | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Paint Roller | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Metagross (49) | Rare | $0.29 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Baltoy (32) | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Flash Energy | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Sliggoo | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Regice | Rare | $0.25 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Rotom | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Sableye | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Porygon | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Dangerous Energy | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Magikarp | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Sceptile Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Goomy | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Eco Arm | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Lysandre | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Porygon2 | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Energy Recycler | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Regirock | Rare | $0.16 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Gloom | Uncommon | $0.15 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Claydol | Rare | $0.15 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Vespiquen (10) | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Rotom | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Registeel | Rare | $0.14 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Relicanth | Common | $0.13 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Faded Town | Uncommon | $0.12 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Inkay | Common | $0.11 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Ariados | Uncommon | $0.10 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Persian | Common | $0.09 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Larvesta | Common | $0.08 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Golett | Common | $0.08 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Metang | Uncommon | $0.07 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Ace Trainer | Uncommon | $0.07 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Paint Roller | Uncommon | $0.07 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Spinarak | Common | $0.06 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Golurk (41) | Common | $0.05 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Malamar | Common | $0.05 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Combee | Common | $0.04 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Baltoy (31) | Common | $0.04 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |