XY - Ancient Origins
A $153.14 XY - Ancient Origins pack returns $29.43 in expected card value on average — 19% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers XY - Ancient Origins. These odds come from thepricedex.com, which publishes a rate for each tier but does not say how many packs it counted to get there — so read them as indicative rather than measured. They are here because they are the best published figures for this set, and naming that limit is better than implying a precision the source never claimed.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
- Pack EV: $29.43
- Cheapest pack: $153.14 (XY Ancient Origins Booster Pack)
- Cards: 100 (172 versions)
Products in this set
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| XY Ancient Origins Booster Pack | $153.14 | $29.43 | 19% |
| Powers Beyond Tin [Latios EX] | $549.99 | $88.30 | 16% |
| XY Ancient Origins Booster Box | $9807.99 | $1059.61 | 11% |
| Ancient Origins Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Tyranitar Pin] | — | $88.30 | TBD |
| Powers Beyond Tin [Hoopa EX] | — | $88.30 | TBD |
| Ancient Origins Elite Trainer Box | — | $264.90 | TBD |
| Powers Beyond Tin [Rayquaza EX] | — | $88.30 | TBD |
| Ancient Origins Single Pack Blister [Fearow] | — | $29.43 | TBD |
| Ancient Origins 3 Pack Blister [Malamar] | — | $88.30 | TBD |
| Ancient Origins Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Shiny Mega Rayquaza Pin] | — | $88.30 | TBD |
| Ancient Origins Single Pack Blister [Blissey] | — | $29.43 | TBD |
| Ancient Origins 3 Pack Blister [Salamence] | — | $88.30 | TBD |
Where to buy
XY Ancient Origins Booster Pack · Powers Beyond Tin [Latios EX] · XY Ancient Origins Booster Box · Ancient Origins Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Tyranitar Pin] · Powers Beyond Tin [Hoopa EX] · Ancient Origins Elite Trainer Box · Powers Beyond Tin [Rayquaza EX] · Ancient Origins Single Pack Blister [Fearow] · Ancient Origins 3 Pack Blister [Malamar] · Ancient Origins Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Shiny Mega Rayquaza Pin] · Ancient Origins Single Pack Blister [Blissey] · Ancient Origins 3 Pack Blister [Salamence]
Expected return by product type
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $153.14 | 19% |
| Booster Box | $272.44 | 11% |
Pull rates (source: community_estimate)
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Secret Rare | 2% | |
| Holo Rare | 15.63% | |
| Ultra Rare | 15.78% | |
| Rare | 66.67% | |
| Common | 500% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
Cards & odds
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M Rayquaza EX (Shiny Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $1117.00 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $25232.19 |
| Primal Kyogre EX (Shiny Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $435.79 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $25232.19 |
| Primal Groudon EX (Shiny Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $325.59 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $25232.19 |
| Lugia EX (94 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $298.17 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $25232.19 |
| Giratina EX (93 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $169.47 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $25232.19 |
| M Sceptile EX (85 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $120.28 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $25232.19 |
| M Tyranitar EX (92 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $117.34 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $25232.19 |
| Tyranitar EX (91 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $108.94 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $25232.19 |
| Ampharos EX (87 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $81.29 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $25232.19 |
| M Ampharos EX (88 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $80.41 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $25232.19 |
| Sceptile EX (84 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $64.47 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $25232.19 |
| Hoopa EX (89 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $52.42 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $25232.19 |
| Kyurem EX (86 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $44.33 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $25232.19 |
| Steven (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $40.73 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $25232.19 |
| Machamp EX (90 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $30.20 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $25232.19 |
| Lugia EX | Ultra Rare | $30.06 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $25232.19 |
| M Tyranitar EX | Ultra Rare | $28.32 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $25232.19 |
| M Sceptile EX | Ultra Rare | $27.49 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $25232.19 |
| Giratina EX | Ultra Rare | $25.84 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $25232.19 |
| Energy Retrieval | Secret Rare | $19.64 | 1 in 100 (1%) | $15314.00 |
| M Ampharos EX | Ultra Rare | $17.71 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $25232.19 |
| Tyranitar EX | Ultra Rare | $12.66 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $25232.19 |
| Ampharos EX | Ultra Rare | $9.30 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $25232.19 |
| Sceptile EX | Ultra Rare | $8.51 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $25232.19 |
| Hoopa EX | Ultra Rare | $7.58 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $25232.19 |
| Trainers' Mail (Secret) | Secret Rare | $7.13 | 1 in 100 (1%) | $15314.00 |
| Machamp EX | Ultra Rare | $5.33 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $25232.19 |
| Kyurem EX | Ultra Rare | $4.70 | 1 in 165 (0.61%) | $25232.19 |
| Gyarados (21) | Holo Rare | $67.93 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Gyarados (21) | Holo Rare | $64.95 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Entei (15) | Holo Rare | $14.54 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Entei (15) | Holo Rare | $12.42 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Metagross (50) | Rare | $10.54 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Lucky Helmet | Uncommon | $10.08 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Gardevoir | Holo Rare | $9.59 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Gardevoir | Holo Rare | $6.78 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Gyarados (20) | Rare | $6.10 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Flareon | Uncommon | $5.81 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Magikarp | Common | $5.43 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Metagross (50) | Rare | $5.10 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Jolteon | Holo Rare | $4.98 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Porygon-Z (67) | Holo Rare | $4.83 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Jolteon | Holo Rare | $4.19 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Volcarona (18) | Rare | $4.17 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Hex Maniac | Uncommon | $4.13 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Vaporeon | Uncommon | $3.31 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Porygon-Z (67) | Holo Rare | $3.00 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Entei (14) | Rare | $2.87 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Golurk (35) | Rare | $2.84 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Hex Maniac | Uncommon | $2.84 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Wooper | Common | $2.72 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Goodra | Holo Rare | $2.58 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Quagsire | Common | $2.41 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Vileplume | Rare | $2.21 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Inkay | Common | $1.96 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Eevee | Common | $1.92 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Vespiquen (11) | Rare | $1.74 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Goodra | Holo Rare | $1.55 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Vaporeon | Uncommon | $1.30 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Beldum | Common | $1.25 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Porygon-Z (66) | Rare | $1.08 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Bellossom | Uncommon | $1.03 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Kirlia | Uncommon | $1.02 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Whimsicott | Uncommon | $1.00 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Oddish | Common | $0.97 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Meowth | Common | $0.97 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Gyarados (20) | Rare | $0.93 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Level Ball | Uncommon | $0.90 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Volcarona (18) | Rare | $0.89 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Goomy | Common | $0.88 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Tyranitar Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.87 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Volcarona (17) | Holo Rare | $0.86 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Cottonee | Common | $0.86 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Flareon | Uncommon | $0.83 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Unown | Common | $0.83 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Volcarona (17) | Holo Rare | $0.80 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Regice | Rare | $0.79 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Bellossom | Uncommon | $0.78 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Ralts | Common | $0.78 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Metagross (49) | Rare | $0.77 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Registeel | Rare | $0.72 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Sableye | Uncommon | $0.70 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Porygon | Common | $0.70 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Ampharos Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.68 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Virizion | Holo Rare | $0.67 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Regirock | Rare | $0.67 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Baltoy (32) | Common | $0.62 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Sliggoo | Uncommon | $0.62 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Porygon2 | Uncommon | $0.62 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Persian | Common | $0.61 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Virizion | Holo Rare | $0.59 | 1 in 51 (1.95%) | $5971.25 |
| Energy Recycler | Uncommon | $0.59 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Claydol | Rare | $0.58 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Gloom | Uncommon | $0.57 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Lysandre | Uncommon | $0.57 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Vileplume | Rare | $0.56 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Golurk (35) | Rare | $0.54 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Vespiquen (11) | Rare | $0.53 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Kirlia | Uncommon | $0.52 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Dangerous Energy | Uncommon | $0.52 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Metang | Uncommon | $0.50 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Eevee | Common | $0.50 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Forest of Giant Plants | Uncommon | $0.49 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Entei (14) | Rare | $0.47 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Ariados | Uncommon | $0.47 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Combee | Common | $0.46 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Malamar | Common | $0.45 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Relicanth | Common | $0.43 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Spinarak | Common | $0.43 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Flash Energy | Uncommon | $0.43 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Golett | Common | $0.42 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Ace Trainer | Uncommon | $0.41 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Golurk (41) | Common | $0.39 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Sceptile Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.39 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Unown | Common | $0.38 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Eco Arm | Uncommon | $0.38 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Vespiquen (10) | Uncommon | $0.37 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Larvesta | Common | $0.36 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Rotom | Uncommon | $0.36 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Beldum | Common | $0.36 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Ralts | Common | $0.36 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Level Ball | Uncommon | $0.34 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Forest of Giant Plants | Uncommon | $0.33 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Wooper | Common | $0.32 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Quagsire | Common | $0.32 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Cottonee | Common | $0.32 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Porygon-Z (66) | Rare | $0.32 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Metagross (49) | Rare | $0.31 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Meowth | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Faded Town | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Sceptile Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Oddish | Common | $0.30 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Magikarp | Common | $0.30 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Whimsicott | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Lucky Helmet | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Sableye | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Sliggoo | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Paint Roller | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Baltoy (31) | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Ampharos Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Flash Energy | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Baltoy (32) | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Goomy | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Tyranitar Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Porygon | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Eco Arm | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Lysandre | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Energy Recycler | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Dangerous Energy | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Regice | Rare | $0.23 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Registeel | Rare | $0.23 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Persian | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Rotom | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Claydol | Rare | $0.20 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Vespiquen (10) | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Paint Roller | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Regirock | Rare | $0.17 | 1 in 19 (5.13%) | $2274.82 |
| Inkay | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Porygon2 | Uncommon | $0.16 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Golurk (41) | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Gloom | Uncommon | $0.13 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Ace Trainer | Uncommon | $0.12 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Faded Town | Uncommon | $0.12 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Ariados | Uncommon | $0.10 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |
| Larvesta | Common | $0.09 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Golett | Common | $0.09 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Combee | Common | $0.08 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Spinarak | Common | $0.08 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Malamar | Common | $0.07 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Relicanth | Common | $0.06 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Baltoy (31) | Common | $0.06 | 1 in 5 (21.74%) | $536.65 |
| Metang | Uncommon | $0.04 | 1 in 9 (10.71%) | $1088.86 |