Sets / XY Base Set

XY Base Set

A $143.99 XY Base Set pack returns $14.08 in expected card value on average — 10% of what you paid.

No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers XY Base Set, so these odds come from elitefourum.com, which discloses a 1,044-pack sample. A stated count is the difference between a measured rate and a confident guess, so it is recorded here whenever a source gives one.

How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.

Products in this set

ProductPriceExpected valueExpected return
XY Booster Pack$143.99$14.0810%
XY Base Set Sleeved Booster Pack$159.99$14.089%
XY Booster Box$5999.99$506.758%
Legend of Kalos Tin [Xerneas EX]$800.00$42.235%
Legend of Kalos Tin [Yveltal EX]$950.00$42.234%
XY Collector Pin 3 Pack Blisters [Xerneas]—$42.23TBD
XY Elite Trainer Box [Yveltal]—$126.69TBD
XY Collector Pin 3 Pack Blisters [Yveltal]—$42.23TBD
XY 3 Pack Blister [Gallade]—$42.23TBD
XY Single Pack Blister [Salamence]—$14.08TBD
XY Single Pack Blister [Dragonite]—$14.08TBD
XY Elite Trainer Box [Xerneas]—$126.69TBD

Where to buy

XY Booster Pack · XY Base Set Sleeved Booster Pack · XY Booster Box · Legend of Kalos Tin [Xerneas EX] · Legend of Kalos Tin [Yveltal EX] · XY Collector Pin 3 Pack Blisters [Xerneas] · XY Elite Trainer Box [Yveltal] · XY Collector Pin 3 Pack Blisters [Yveltal] · XY 3 Pack Blister [Gallade] · XY Single Pack Blister [Salamence] · XY Single Pack Blister [Dragonite] · XY Elite Trainer Box [Xerneas]

Expected return by product type

ProductPrice per packExpected return
Booster Pack$143.9910%
Booster Box$166.678%

Pull rates (source: community_estimate)

RarityPull rateSample
Ultra Rare11.11%n=1044
Holo Rare23.33%
Rare65.56%
Common450%
Uncommon300%

Cards & odds

CardRarityMarket priceOddsCost to pull
Blastoise EX (142 Full Art)Ultra Rare$176.571 in 126 (0.79%)$18144.55
Venusaur EX (141 Full Art)Ultra Rare$124.561 in 126 (0.79%)$18144.55
Xerneas EX (146 Full Art)Ultra Rare$119.201 in 126 (0.79%)$18144.55
Yveltal EX (144 Full Art)Ultra Rare$101.591 in 126 (0.79%)$18144.55
Emolga EX (143 Full Art)Ultra Rare$55.501 in 126 (0.79%)$18144.55
Skarmory EX (145 Full Art)Ultra Rare$40.151 in 126 (0.79%)$18144.55
M Blastoise EXUltra Rare$31.441 in 126 (0.79%)$18144.55
M Venusaur EXUltra Rare$24.451 in 126 (0.79%)$18144.55
Xerneas EXUltra Rare$18.061 in 126 (0.79%)$18144.55
Yveltal EXUltra Rare$15.981 in 126 (0.79%)$18144.55
Blastoise EXUltra Rare$11.051 in 126 (0.79%)$18144.55
Emolga EXUltra Rare$8.731 in 126 (0.79%)$18144.55
Venusaur EXUltra Rare$6.961 in 126 (0.79%)$18144.55
Skarmory EXUltra Rare$4.801 in 126 (0.79%)$18144.55
Jigglypuff (87)Common$15.091 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
PikachuCommon$14.811 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
Jigglypuff (88)Common$13.251 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
GreninjaHolo Rare$12.671 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
GreninjaHolo Rare$12.511 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
Vivillon (High Plains [Orange])Holo Rare$10.681 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
LaprasHolo Rare$10.261 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
Vivillon (High Plains [Orange])Holo Rare$9.861 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
HerdierUncommon$8.041 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
RaichuHolo Rare$6.651 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
QuilladinUncommon$6.281 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
LaprasHolo Rare$6.001 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
TrevenantHolo Rare$5.701 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
EvosodaUncommon$5.641 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
TrevenantHolo Rare$5.261 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
Muscle BandUncommon$5.041 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
Muscle BandUncommon$4.921 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
Wigglytuff (90)Rare$4.331 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
FroakieCommon$4.131 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
SableyeUncommon$3.981 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
Wigglytuff (89)Rare$3.831 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
AromatisseHolo Rare$3.771 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
EkansCommon$3.401 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
Water EnergyCommon$3.381 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
PikachuCommon$3.111 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
Aegislash (86)Holo Rare$3.101 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
GourgeistHolo Rare$3.081 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
DelphoxHolo Rare$3.021 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
GourgeistHolo Rare$2.961 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
RaichuHolo Rare$2.811 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
ChesnaughtHolo Rare$2.691 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
Fighting EnergyCommon$2.621 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
Vivillon (Meadow [Pink])Holo Rare$2.601 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
Jigglypuff (87)Common$2.571 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
ChesnaughtHolo Rare$2.501 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
Mr. MimeUncommon$2.431 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
PansearCommon$2.421 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
Psychic EnergyCommon$2.381 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
XerneasRare$2.321 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
SkittyCommon$2.311 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
AromatisseHolo Rare$2.201 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
DelphoxHolo Rare$2.201 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
SwirlixCommon$2.201 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
SlurpuffHolo Rare$2.071 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
Fire EnergyCommon$2.051 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
BeedrillRare$1.901 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
Vivillon (Meadow [Pink])Holo Rare$1.831 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
FrogadierUncommon$1.811 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
PumpkabooCommon$1.811 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
Professor's LetterUncommon$1.791 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
ZoruaCommon$1.691 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
Aegislash (86)Holo Rare$1.681 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
Wigglytuff (90)Rare$1.671 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
Double Colorless EnergyUncommon$1.661 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
BidoofCommon$1.651 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
Super PotionUncommon$1.641 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
ChespinCommon$1.531 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
PhantumpCommon$1.501 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
VoltorbCommon$1.471 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
ZoroarkHolo Rare$1.461 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
BraixenUncommon$1.441 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
TalonflameHolo Rare$1.431 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
SpritzeeCommon$1.411 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
Wigglytuff (89)Rare$1.361 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
Aegislash (85)Rare$1.341 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
DelcattyUncommon$1.291 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
YveltalRare$1.211 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
SlurpuffHolo Rare$1.161 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
TalonflameHolo Rare$1.151 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
ArbokRare$1.141 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
ConkeldurrRare$1.111 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
Professor SycamoreUncommon$1.111 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
StaryuCommon$1.111 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
Darkness Energy (Basic)Common$1.091 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
Grass EnergyCommon$1.081 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
HonedgeCommon$1.081 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
Inkay (74)Uncommon$1.061 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
ConkeldurrRare$1.051 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
LillipupCommon$1.021 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
CloysterRare$1.011 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
QuilladinUncommon$1.011 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
StarmieRare$1.001 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
RhyperiorHolo Rare$0.981 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
VolbeatUncommon$0.971 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
CorsolaUncommon$0.961 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
TaurosRare$0.951 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
XerneasRare$0.951 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
GogoatHolo Rare$0.931 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
LedybaCommon$0.931 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
FurfrouHolo Rare$0.921 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
GogoatHolo Rare$0.921 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
IllumiseUncommon$0.911 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
Metal Energy (Basic)Common$0.911 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
Malamar (76)Rare$0.901 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
ZoroarkHolo Rare$0.891 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
DunsparceUncommon$0.871 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
BibarelRare$0.861 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
SwellowRare$0.861 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
Max ReviveUncommon$0.851 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
Rainbow EnergyUncommon$0.851 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
StoutlandRare$0.851 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
Fairy EnergyCommon$0.831 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
DoubladeUncommon$0.821 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
DugtrioRare$0.821 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
Lightning EnergyCommon$0.801 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
MagcargoRare$0.801 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
WeedleCommon$0.801 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
EvosodaUncommon$0.791 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
FletchlingCommon$0.791 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
SandileCommon$0.791 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
ScolipedeRare$0.791 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
ShellderCommon$0.791 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
DoduoCommon$0.771 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
FurfrouHolo Rare$0.771 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
Malamar (77)Rare$0.771 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
RhydonRare$0.771 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
RhyperiorHolo Rare$0.771 in 73 (1.37%)$7118.43
DiglettCommon$0.761 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
Double Colorless EnergyUncommon$0.761 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
SpoinkCommon$0.761 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
Fairy GardenUncommon$0.751 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
GurdurrUncommon$0.751 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
KrookodileRare$0.751 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
ShaunaUncommon$0.751 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
ElectrodeUncommon$0.741 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
SpewpaUncommon$0.741 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
TaillowCommon$0.741 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
TimburrCommon$0.741 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
PanpourCommon$0.731 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
RhyhornCommon$0.731 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
ArbokRare$0.721 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
SkiddoCommon$0.721 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
BisharpRare$0.701 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
Great BallUncommon$0.701 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
GrumpigRare$0.701 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
DodrioUncommon$0.691 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
Team Flare GruntUncommon$0.691 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
VenipedeCommon$0.691 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
KrokorokUncommon$0.681 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
Red CardUncommon$0.681 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
Roller SkatesUncommon$0.681 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
SimisearRare$0.681 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
Aegislash (85)Rare$0.671 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
FennekinCommon$0.671 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
LedianUncommon$0.671 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
WhirlipedeUncommon$0.671 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
BunnelbyCommon$0.661 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
SimipourRare$0.661 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
TaurosRare$0.651 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
LunatoneUncommon$0.631 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
BeedrillRare$0.621 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
SolrockUncommon$0.621 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
PawniardCommon$0.611 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
MagcargoRare$0.601 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
PansearCommon$0.601 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
Rainbow EnergyUncommon$0.601 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
SlugmaCommon$0.601 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
BibarelRare$0.591 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
FletchinderUncommon$0.591 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
HerdierUncommon$0.591 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
DiggersbyUncommon$0.581 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
Inkay (75)Common$0.581 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
Hard CharmUncommon$0.571 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
KakunaUncommon$0.571 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
SimisageRare$0.551 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
StoutlandRare$0.551 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
YveltalRare$0.551 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
StarmieRare$0.541 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
CassiusUncommon$0.531 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
ScatterbugCommon$0.531 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
SimisearRare$0.531 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
DelcattyUncommon$0.521 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
Jigglypuff (88)Common$0.521 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
PansageCommon$0.501 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
RhydonRare$0.501 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
SableyeUncommon$0.481 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
GrumpigRare$0.471 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
ScolipedeRare$0.461 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
CloysterRare$0.451 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
KrookodileRare$0.441 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
Shadow CircleUncommon$0.441 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
Mr. MimeUncommon$0.421 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
SkittyCommon$0.421 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
SwellowRare$0.421 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
Red CardUncommon$0.411 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
SimisageRare$0.411 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
ChespinCommon$0.401 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
FrogadierUncommon$0.401 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
SimipourRare$0.401 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
BidoofCommon$0.391 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
ZoruaCommon$0.391 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
BisharpRare$0.381 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
CorsolaUncommon$0.381 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
DugtrioRare$0.381 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
BraixenUncommon$0.371 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
Malamar (77)Rare$0.371 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
SwirlixCommon$0.371 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
FennekinCommon$0.361 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
KakunaUncommon$0.361 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
SpewpaUncommon$0.361 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
Team Flare GruntUncommon$0.361 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
DiggersbyUncommon$0.351 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
IllumiseUncommon$0.351 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
Malamar (76)Rare$0.351 in 40 (2.52%)$3874.22
FroakieCommon$0.341 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
PhantumpCommon$0.331 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
DiglettCommon$0.321 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
DodrioUncommon$0.321 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
KrokorokUncommon$0.321 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
Professor's LetterUncommon$0.311 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
ScatterbugCommon$0.311 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
DoubladeUncommon$0.301 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
Inkay (74)Uncommon$0.301 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
VolbeatUncommon$0.301 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
FletchinderUncommon$0.291 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
Hard CharmUncommon$0.291 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
Max ReviveUncommon$0.291 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
FletchlingCommon$0.281 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
SpritzeeCommon$0.281 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
EkansCommon$0.271 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
LedianUncommon$0.271 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
WeedleCommon$0.271 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
Fairy GardenUncommon$0.261 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
LedybaCommon$0.261 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
Professor SycamoreUncommon$0.261 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
PumpkabooCommon$0.261 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
Super PotionUncommon$0.261 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
ElectrodeUncommon$0.251 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
LunatoneUncommon$0.251 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
PansageCommon$0.251 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
SpoinkCommon$0.251 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
TaillowCommon$0.251 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
TimburrCommon$0.251 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
LillipupCommon$0.241 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
Shadow CircleUncommon$0.241 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
SlugmaCommon$0.241 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
SkiddoCommon$0.231 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
StaryuCommon$0.231 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
VoltorbCommon$0.231 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
BunnelbyCommon$0.221 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
CassiusUncommon$0.221 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
DunsparceUncommon$0.221 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
GurdurrUncommon$0.221 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
RhyhornCommon$0.221 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
SolrockUncommon$0.221 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
VenipedeCommon$0.221 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
HonedgeCommon$0.211 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
PanpourCommon$0.211 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
DoduoCommon$0.201 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
ShellderCommon$0.201 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
WhirlipedeUncommon$0.201 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
Great BallUncommon$0.191 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
Inkay (75)Common$0.191 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
PawniardCommon$0.191 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
SandileCommon$0.191 in 11 (9.38%)$1042.03
ShaunaUncommon$0.181 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66
Roller SkatesUncommon$0.171 in 14 (7.14%)$1367.66