XY - BREAKpoint
A $51.71 XY - BREAKpoint pack returns $15.00 in expected card value on average — 29% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers XY - BREAKpoint. These odds come from thepricedex.com, which publishes a rate for each tier but does not say how many packs it counted to get there — so read them as indicative rather than measured. They are here because they are the best published figures for this set, and naming that limit is better than implying a precision the source never claimed.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
- Pack EV: $15.00
- Cheapest pack: $51.71 (XY BREAKpoint Booster Pack)
- Cards: 123 (220 versions)
Products in this set
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| XY BREAKpoint Booster Pack | $51.71 | $15.00 | 29% |
| XY - BREAKpoint Sleeved Booster Pack | $58.21 | $15.00 | 26% |
| BREAKpoint Single Pack Blister [Hydreigon] | $92.50 | $15.00 | 16% |
| XY BREAKpoint Elite Trainer Box | $1099.99 | $135.04 | 12% |
| Triple Power Tin [Shiny Gyarados EX] | $397.97 | $45.01 | 11% |
| BREAKpoint Single Pack Blister [Pikachu] | $448.34 | $15.00 | 3% |
| XY BREAKpoint Booster Box | — | $540.16 | TBD |
| BREAKpoint 3 Pack Blister [Pyroar] | — | $45.01 | TBD |
| Triple Power Tin [Mewtwo EX] | — | $45.01 | TBD |
| Triple Power Tin [Machamp EX] | — | $45.01 | TBD |
| BREAKpoint Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Shiny Mega Gyarados] | — | $45.01 | TBD |
| BREAKpoint 3 Pack Blister [Umbreon] | — | $45.01 | TBD |
| BREAKpoint Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Scizor] | — | $45.01 | TBD |
Where to buy
XY BREAKpoint Booster Pack · XY - BREAKpoint Sleeved Booster Pack · BREAKpoint Single Pack Blister [Hydreigon] · XY BREAKpoint Elite Trainer Box · Triple Power Tin [Shiny Gyarados EX] · BREAKpoint Single Pack Blister [Pikachu] · XY BREAKpoint Booster Box · BREAKpoint 3 Pack Blister [Pyroar] · Triple Power Tin [Mewtwo EX] · Triple Power Tin [Machamp EX] · BREAKpoint Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Shiny Mega Gyarados] · BREAKpoint 3 Pack Blister [Umbreon] · BREAKpoint Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Scizor]
Expected return by product type
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $51.71 | 29% |
| Elite Trainer Box | $122.22 | 12% |
Pull rates (source: community_estimate)
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Secret Rare | 0.8% | |
| Rare BREAK | 6.67% | |
| Holo Rare | 16.67% | |
| Ultra Rare | 15.88% | |
| Rare | 66.67% | |
| Common | 500% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
Cards & odds
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gyarados EX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $212.55 | 1 in 125 (0.8%) | $6463.75 |
| M Gyarados EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $129.31 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $6512.59 |
| Espeon EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $80.24 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $6512.59 |
| Gyarados EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $79.54 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $6512.59 |
| Darkrai EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $67.34 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $6512.59 |
| Ho-Oh EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $67.23 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $6512.59 |
| M Gyarados EX | Ultra Rare | $52.11 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $6512.59 |
| Skyla | Ultra Rare | $50.38 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $6512.59 |
| M Scizor EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $48.65 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $6512.59 |
| Greninja BREAK | Rare BREAK | $35.19 | 1 in 75 (1.33%) | $3876.31 |
| Espeon EX | Ultra Rare | $30.43 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $6512.59 |
| Scizor EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $27.55 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $6512.59 |
| Gyarados EX | Ultra Rare | $26.54 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $6512.59 |
| Manaphy EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $19.33 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $6512.59 |
| M Scizor EX | Ultra Rare | $19.30 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $6512.59 |
| Darkrai EX | Ultra Rare | $13.80 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $6512.59 |
| Luxray BREAK | Rare BREAK | $8.09 | 1 in 75 (1.33%) | $3876.31 |
| Golduck BREAK | Rare BREAK | $7.83 | 1 in 75 (1.33%) | $3876.31 |
| Palkia EX | Ultra Rare | $7.00 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $6512.59 |
| Ho-Oh EX | Ultra Rare | $6.58 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $6512.59 |
| Togekiss EX | Ultra Rare | $5.09 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $6512.59 |
| Scizor EX | Ultra Rare | $4.79 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $6512.59 |
| Manaphy EX | Ultra Rare | $4.44 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $6512.59 |
| Emboar EX | Ultra Rare | $4.38 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $6512.59 |
| Trevenant BREAK | Rare BREAK | $4.05 | 1 in 75 (1.33%) | $3876.31 |
| Raticate BREAK | Rare BREAK | $3.44 | 1 in 75 (1.33%) | $3876.31 |
| All-Night Party | Uncommon | $63.46 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Hypno | Rare | $30.85 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Clefairy | Common | $21.68 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Lapras | Uncommon | $17.28 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Psyduck | Common | $14.11 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Slowpoke | Common | $11.74 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Greninja | Rare | $8.84 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Gyarados Spirit Link | Uncommon | $7.14 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Hypno | Rare | $6.70 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Suicune | Holo Rare | $6.54 | 1 in 42 (2.38%) | $1918.60 |
| All-Night Party | Uncommon | $6.02 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Arcanine | Uncommon | $5.58 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Suicune | Holo Rare | $5.06 | 1 in 42 (2.38%) | $1918.60 |
| Meganium | Holo Rare | $3.57 | 1 in 42 (2.38%) | $1918.60 |
| Garchomp | Holo Rare | $3.28 | 1 in 42 (2.38%) | $1918.60 |
| Slowbro | Uncommon | $2.84 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Clefairy | Common | $2.82 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Nuzleaf | Uncommon | $2.81 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Greninja | Rare | $2.80 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Fighting Fury Belt | Uncommon | $2.69 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Shinx | Common | $2.52 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Clefable | Rare | $2.48 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Bayleef | Uncommon | $2.44 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Max Elixir | Uncommon | $2.37 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Cloyster | Uncommon | $2.30 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Splash Energy | Uncommon | $2.18 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Espurr | Common | $2.17 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Sudowoodo | Uncommon | $2.13 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Garchomp | Holo Rare | $1.92 | 1 in 42 (2.38%) | $1918.60 |
| Garbodor | Holo Rare | $1.76 | 1 in 42 (2.38%) | $1918.60 |
| Meganium | Holo Rare | $1.70 | 1 in 42 (2.38%) | $1918.60 |
| Slowking | Holo Rare | $1.65 | 1 in 42 (2.38%) | $1918.60 |
| Misty's Determination | Uncommon | $1.40 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Slowking | Holo Rare | $1.32 | 1 in 42 (2.38%) | $1918.60 |
| Garbodor | Holo Rare | $1.16 | 1 in 42 (2.38%) | $1918.60 |
| Scizor Spirit Link | Uncommon | $1.16 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Max Elixir | Uncommon | $1.10 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Clefable | Rare | $1.08 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Psyduck | Common | $1.06 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Drapion | Rare | $1.06 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Chikorita | Common | $1.05 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Growlithe | Common | $1.03 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Trubbish | Common | $0.98 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Frogadier | Uncommon | $0.93 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Reverse Valley | Uncommon | $0.90 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Pangoro | Rare | $0.90 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Aromatisse | Uncommon | $0.90 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Lilligant | Rare | $0.89 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Kricketune | Uncommon | $0.86 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Golduck | Rare | $0.82 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Mawile | Uncommon | $0.79 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Dragalge | Holo Rare | $0.78 | 1 in 42 (2.38%) | $1918.60 |
| Meowstic | Rare | $0.76 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Froakie | Common | $0.75 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Fighting Fury Belt | Uncommon | $0.75 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Gabite | Uncommon | $0.75 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Corsola | Common | $0.74 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Professor Sycamore | Uncommon | $0.73 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Delinquent | Uncommon | $0.71 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Nuzleaf | Uncommon | $0.70 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Phantump | Common | $0.69 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Shiftry | Rare | $0.69 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Splash Energy | Uncommon | $0.68 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Purugly | Uncommon | $0.68 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Puzzle of Time | Uncommon | $0.66 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Spritzee | Common | $0.65 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Seedot | Common | $0.64 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Aegislash | Holo Rare | $0.64 | 1 in 42 (2.38%) | $1918.60 |
| Swanna | Uncommon | $0.61 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Aegislash | Holo Rare | $0.59 | 1 in 42 (2.38%) | $1918.60 |
| Raticate | Rare | $0.59 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Great Ball | Uncommon | $0.59 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Arcanine | Uncommon | $0.58 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Seismitoad | Rare | $0.58 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Stantler | Uncommon | $0.56 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Luxray | Rare | $0.55 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Ducklett | Common | $0.54 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Luxio | Uncommon | $0.54 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Trevenant | Rare | $0.54 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Electivire | Uncommon | $0.53 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Trubbish | Common | $0.52 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Dragalge | Holo Rare | $0.52 | 1 in 42 (2.38%) | $1918.60 |
| Camerupt | Rare | $0.51 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Slowpoke | Common | $0.51 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Electabuzz | Common | $0.51 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Skrelp | Common | $0.51 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Drowzee | Common | $0.50 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Blitzle | Common | $0.49 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Pancham | Common | $0.49 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Petilil | Common | $0.48 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Dunsparce | Uncommon | $0.48 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Staryu | Common | $0.47 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Zebstrika | Rare | $0.47 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Max Potion | Uncommon | $0.46 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Slowbro | Uncommon | $0.45 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Shellder (23) | Common | $0.45 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Lapras | Uncommon | $0.45 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Chikorita | Common | $0.44 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Durant | Uncommon | $0.44 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Sigilyph | Uncommon | $0.44 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Gible | Common | $0.44 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Sudowoodo | Uncommon | $0.43 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Numel | Common | $0.42 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Shellder (22) | Common | $0.42 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Luxray | Rare | $0.42 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Kricketot | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Psychic's Third Eye | Uncommon | $0.41 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Bayleef | Uncommon | $0.40 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Furfrou | Common | $0.40 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Doublade | Uncommon | $0.39 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Rattata | Common | $0.39 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Pokemon Catcher | Uncommon | $0.39 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Lilligant | Rare | $0.38 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Tympole | Common | $0.38 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Glameow | Common | $0.38 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Heatmor | Uncommon | $0.37 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Shinx | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Ferrothorn | Rare | $0.37 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Bursting Balloon | Uncommon | $0.36 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Tierno | Uncommon | $0.35 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Palpitoad | Uncommon | $0.34 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Seismitoad | Rare | $0.34 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Honedge | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Froakie | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Trevenant | Rare | $0.33 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Potion | Uncommon | $0.33 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Frogadier | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Skorupi | Common | $0.32 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Delinquent | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Gyarados Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Golduck | Rare | $0.31 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Drapion | Rare | $0.31 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Espurr | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Cloyster | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Ferroseed | Common | $0.30 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Aromatisse | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Meowstic | Rare | $0.29 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Pangoro | Rare | $0.29 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Spritzee | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Corsola | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Misty's Determination | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Professor Sycamore | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Growlithe | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Scizor Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Blitzle | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Kricketot | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Pancham | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Mawile | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Raticate | Rare | $0.25 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Gible | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Shiftry | Rare | $0.24 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Max Potion | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Staryu | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Reverse Valley | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Gabite | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Purugly | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Puzzle of Time | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Seedot | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Honedge | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Phantump | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Dunsparce | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Palpitoad | Uncommon | $0.20 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Zebstrika | Rare | $0.20 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Drowzee | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Petilil | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Numel | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Ducklett | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Swanna | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Electivire | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Bursting Balloon | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Skrelp | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Glameow | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Tympole | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Luxio | Uncommon | $0.16 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Ferrothorn | Rare | $0.16 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Great Ball | Uncommon | $0.16 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Rattata | Common | $0.15 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Tierno | Uncommon | $0.15 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Camerupt | Rare | $0.14 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Psychic's Third Eye | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Shellder (23) | Common | $0.13 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Durant | Uncommon | $0.12 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Shellder (22) | Common | $0.11 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Pokemon Catcher | Uncommon | $0.11 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Furfrou | Common | $0.10 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Stantler | Uncommon | $0.09 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Kricketune | Uncommon | $0.08 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Electabuzz | Common | $0.08 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Doublade | Uncommon | $0.08 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Ferroseed | Common | $0.08 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Potion | Uncommon | $0.08 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Skorupi | Common | $0.07 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Sigilyph | Uncommon | $0.07 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Heatmor | Uncommon | $0.03 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |