A $46.32 XY - BREAKpoint pack returns $14.31 in expected card value on average — 31% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers XY - BREAKpoint, so these odds come from thepricedex.com, which discloses a disclosed sample. Sources that do not state how many packs they counted are not used here, however confident they sound.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| XY BREAKpoint Booster Pack | $46.32 | $14.31 | 31% |
| XY - BREAKpoint Sleeved Booster Pack | $53.49 | $14.31 | 27% |
| BREAKpoint Single Pack Blister [Hydreigon] | $90.00 | $14.31 | 16% |
| XY BREAKpoint Elite Trainer Box | $1099.99 | $128.83 | 12% |
| Triple Power Tin [Shiny Gyarados EX] | $397.97 | $42.94 | 11% |
| BREAKpoint Single Pack Blister [Pikachu] | $399.99 | $14.31 | 4% |
| XY BREAKpoint Booster Box | — | $515.31 | TBD |
| BREAKpoint 3 Pack Blister [Pyroar] | — | $42.94 | TBD |
| BREAKpoint Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Shiny Mega Gyarados] | — | $42.94 | TBD |
| Triple Power Tin [Mewtwo EX] | — | $42.94 | TBD |
| Triple Power Tin [Machamp EX] | — | $42.94 | TBD |
| BREAKpoint 3 Pack Blister [Umbreon] | — | $42.94 | TBD |
| BREAKpoint Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Scizor] | — | $42.94 | TBD |
XY BREAKpoint Booster Pack · XY - BREAKpoint Sleeved Booster Pack · BREAKpoint Single Pack Blister [Hydreigon] · XY BREAKpoint Elite Trainer Box · Triple Power Tin [Shiny Gyarados EX] · BREAKpoint Single Pack Blister [Pikachu] · XY BREAKpoint Booster Box · BREAKpoint 3 Pack Blister [Pyroar] · BREAKpoint Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Shiny Mega Gyarados] · Triple Power Tin [Mewtwo EX] · Triple Power Tin [Machamp EX] · BREAKpoint 3 Pack Blister [Umbreon] · BREAKpoint Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Scizor]
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $46.32 | 31% |
| Elite Trainer Box | $122.22 | 12% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Secret Rare | 0.8% | |
| Rare BREAK | 6.67% | |
| Holo Rare | 16.67% | |
| Ultra Rare | 15.88% | |
| Rare | 66.67% | |
| Common | 500% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gyarados EX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $197.21 | 1 in 125 (0.8%) | $5790.00 |
| M Gyarados EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $122.31 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $5833.75 |
| Gyarados EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $78.66 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $5833.75 |
| Espeon EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $77.76 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $5833.75 |
| Darkrai EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $62.82 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $5833.75 |
| Skyla | Ultra Rare | $52.32 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $5833.75 |
| M Gyarados EX | Ultra Rare | $51.54 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $5833.75 |
| M Scizor EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $48.16 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $5833.75 |
| Ho-Oh EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $44.65 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $5833.75 |
| Greninja BREAK | Rare BREAK | $29.83 | 1 in 75 (1.33%) | $3472.26 |
| Espeon EX | Ultra Rare | $29.72 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $5833.75 |
| Scizor EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $26.79 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $5833.75 |
| Gyarados EX | Ultra Rare | $26.18 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $5833.75 |
| M Scizor EX | Ultra Rare | $20.48 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $5833.75 |
| Manaphy EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $17.74 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $5833.75 |
| Darkrai EX | Ultra Rare | $16.27 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $5833.75 |
| Luxray BREAK | Rare BREAK | $7.47 | 1 in 75 (1.33%) | $3472.26 |
| Palkia EX | Ultra Rare | $6.85 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $5833.75 |
| Golduck BREAK | Rare BREAK | $6.65 | 1 in 75 (1.33%) | $3472.26 |
| Ho-Oh EX | Ultra Rare | $6.20 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $5833.75 |
| Togekiss EX | Ultra Rare | $5.34 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $5833.75 |
| Scizor EX | Ultra Rare | $5.31 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $5833.75 |
| Trevenant BREAK | Rare BREAK | $4.36 | 1 in 75 (1.33%) | $3472.26 |
| Manaphy EX | Ultra Rare | $4.17 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $5833.75 |
| Emboar EX | Ultra Rare | $4.02 | 1 in 126 (0.79%) | $5833.75 |
| Raticate BREAK | Rare BREAK | $3.59 | 1 in 75 (1.33%) | $3472.26 |
| All-Night Party | Uncommon | $60.49 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Hypno | Rare | $28.48 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Clefairy | Common | $21.35 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Lapras | Uncommon | $14.48 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Psyduck | Common | $13.28 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Slowpoke | Common | $10.67 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Greninja | Rare | $8.71 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| All-Night Party | Uncommon | $7.16 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Hypno | Rare | $6.87 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Arcanine | Uncommon | $6.00 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Gyarados Spirit Link | Uncommon | $5.53 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Garchomp | Holo Rare | $4.55 | 1 in 42 (2.38%) | $1918.60 |
| Suicune | Holo Rare | $3.92 | 1 in 42 (2.38%) | $1918.60 |
| Suicune | Holo Rare | $3.87 | 1 in 42 (2.38%) | $1918.60 |
| Meganium | Holo Rare | $3.62 | 1 in 42 (2.38%) | $1918.60 |
| Clefairy | Common | $3.59 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Slowbro | Uncommon | $3.23 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Shinx | Common | $2.91 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Fighting Fury Belt | Uncommon | $2.82 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Greninja | Rare | $2.70 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Max Elixir | Uncommon | $2.42 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Bayleef | Uncommon | $2.33 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Clefable | Rare | $2.30 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Splash Energy | Uncommon | $2.18 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Garchomp | Holo Rare | $2.16 | 1 in 42 (2.38%) | $1918.60 |
| Cloyster | Uncommon | $2.04 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Nuzleaf | Uncommon | $2.01 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Misty's Determination | Uncommon | $1.98 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Meganium | Holo Rare | $1.85 | 1 in 42 (2.38%) | $1918.60 |
| Sudowoodo | Uncommon | $1.83 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Slowking | Holo Rare | $1.59 | 1 in 42 (2.38%) | $1918.60 |
| Espurr | Common | $1.53 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Garbodor | Holo Rare | $1.44 | 1 in 42 (2.38%) | $1918.60 |
| Max Elixir | Uncommon | $1.30 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Slowking | Holo Rare | $1.24 | 1 in 42 (2.38%) | $1918.60 |
| Garbodor | Holo Rare | $1.20 | 1 in 42 (2.38%) | $1918.60 |
| Psyduck | Common | $1.09 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Clefable | Rare | $1.07 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Growlithe | Common | $1.03 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Scizor Spirit Link | Uncommon | $1.03 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Drapion | Rare | $1.02 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Trubbish | Common | $0.94 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Lilligant | Rare | $0.90 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Frogadier | Uncommon | $0.89 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Pangoro | Rare | $0.88 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Chikorita | Common | $0.87 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Aromatisse | Uncommon | $0.85 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Fighting Fury Belt | Uncommon | $0.82 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Dragalge | Holo Rare | $0.80 | 1 in 42 (2.38%) | $1918.60 |
| Golduck | Rare | $0.79 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Corsola | Common | $0.77 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Reverse Valley | Uncommon | $0.76 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Mawile | Uncommon | $0.76 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Kricketune | Uncommon | $0.75 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Splash Energy | Uncommon | $0.73 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Meowstic | Rare | $0.71 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Gabite | Uncommon | $0.71 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Delinquent | Uncommon | $0.71 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Froakie | Common | $0.70 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Puzzle of Time | Uncommon | $0.67 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Spritzee | Common | $0.67 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Purugly | Uncommon | $0.66 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Seedot | Common | $0.65 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Shiftry | Rare | $0.65 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Swanna | Uncommon | $0.63 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Nuzleaf | Uncommon | $0.63 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Camerupt | Rare | $0.61 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Great Ball | Uncommon | $0.60 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Phantump | Common | $0.59 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Aegislash | Holo Rare | $0.58 | 1 in 42 (2.38%) | $1918.60 |
| Luxio | Uncommon | $0.56 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Seismitoad | Rare | $0.54 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Raticate | Rare | $0.54 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Stantler | Uncommon | $0.54 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Ducklett | Common | $0.53 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Luxray | Rare | $0.53 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Professor Sycamore | Uncommon | $0.52 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Slowbro | Uncommon | $0.51 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Staryu | Common | $0.51 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Electivire | Uncommon | $0.51 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Trevenant | Rare | $0.50 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Skrelp | Common | $0.50 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Dragalge | Holo Rare | $0.49 | 1 in 42 (2.38%) | $1918.60 |
| Petilil | Common | $0.48 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Blitzle | Common | $0.48 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Drowzee | Common | $0.48 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Pancham | Common | $0.48 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Dunsparce | Uncommon | $0.48 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Max Potion | Uncommon | $0.48 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Electabuzz | Common | $0.47 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Aegislash | Holo Rare | $0.47 | 1 in 42 (2.38%) | $1918.60 |
| Lapras | Uncommon | $0.46 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Trubbish | Common | $0.45 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Furfrou | Common | $0.45 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Arcanine | Uncommon | $0.44 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Slowpoke | Common | $0.44 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Numel | Common | $0.43 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Sigilyph | Uncommon | $0.43 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Psychic's Third Eye | Uncommon | $0.43 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Durant | Uncommon | $0.42 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Sudowoodo | Uncommon | $0.42 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Shellder (22) | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Zebstrika | Rare | $0.41 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Gible | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Chikorita | Common | $0.40 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Kricketot | Common | $0.40 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Shellder (23) | Common | $0.40 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Luxray | Rare | $0.40 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Bayleef | Uncommon | $0.39 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Rattata | Common | $0.39 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Glameow | Common | $0.38 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Bursting Balloon | Uncommon | $0.38 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Pokemon Catcher | Uncommon | $0.38 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Tierno | Uncommon | $0.38 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Tympole | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Espurr | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Ferrothorn | Rare | $0.36 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Lilligant | Rare | $0.34 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Heatmor | Uncommon | $0.34 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Honedge | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Potion | Uncommon | $0.34 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Palpitoad | Uncommon | $0.33 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Seismitoad | Rare | $0.33 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Doublade | Uncommon | $0.33 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Growlithe | Common | $0.32 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Golduck | Rare | $0.32 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Frogadier | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Drapion | Rare | $0.32 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Pangoro | Rare | $0.32 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Shinx | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Trevenant | Rare | $0.31 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Skorupi | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Aromatisse | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Gyarados Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Delinquent | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Scizor Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Ferroseed | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Professor Sycamore | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Spritzee | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Raticate | Rare | $0.28 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Corsola | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Froakie | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Misty's Determination | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Staryu | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Zebstrika | Rare | $0.25 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Reverse Valley | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Meowstic | Rare | $0.24 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Kricketot | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Dunsparce | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Cloyster | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Blitzle | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Puzzle of Time | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Palpitoad | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Honedge | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Shiftry | Rare | $0.21 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Purugly | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Max Potion | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Gabite | Uncommon | $0.20 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Pancham | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Seedot | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Electivire | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Mawile | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Numel | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Phantump | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Bursting Balloon | Uncommon | $0.17 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Tympole | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Great Ball | Uncommon | $0.16 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Petilil | Common | $0.15 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Gible | Common | $0.15 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Tierno | Uncommon | $0.15 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Swanna | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Ferrothorn | Rare | $0.14 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Psychic's Third Eye | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Rattata | Common | $0.13 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Luxio | Uncommon | $0.12 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Camerupt | Rare | $0.11 | 1 in 24 (4.17%) | $1096.51 |
| Shellder (23) | Common | $0.11 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Durant | Uncommon | $0.10 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Drowzee | Common | $0.10 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Shellder (22) | Common | $0.09 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Glameow | Common | $0.09 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Skorupi | Common | $0.08 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Skrelp | Common | $0.08 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Pokemon Catcher | Uncommon | $0.08 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Doublade | Uncommon | $0.07 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Kricketune | Uncommon | $0.06 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Stantler | Uncommon | $0.06 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Furfrou | Common | $0.06 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Ducklett | Common | $0.05 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Sigilyph | Uncommon | $0.05 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Ferroseed | Common | $0.05 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |
| Potion | Uncommon | $0.05 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Heatmor | Uncommon | $0.03 | 1 in 14 (7.32%) | $624.43 |
| Electabuzz | Common | $0.03 | 1 in 7 (15.15%) | $301.55 |