Sets / XY - Fates Collide

XY - Fates Collide

A $46.68 XY - Fates Collide pack returns $12.43 in expected card value on average — 27% of what you paid.

No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers XY - Fates Collide. These odds come from thepricedex.com, which publishes a rate for each tier but does not say how many packs it counted to get there — so read them as indicative rather than measured. They are here because they are the best published figures for this set, and naming that limit is better than implying a precision the source never claimed.

How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.

Products in this set

ProductPriceExpected valueExpected return
XY Fates Collide Booster Pack$46.68$12.4327%
XY - Fates Collide Sleeved Booster Pack [Mega Alakazam]$49.04$12.4325%
XY - Fates Collide Sleeved Booster Pack [Delphox BREAK]$49.95$12.4325%
XY - Fates Collide Sleeved Booster Pack [Zygarde]$54.04$12.4323%
XY - Fates Collide Sleeved Booster Pack [Lugia BREAK]$56.45$12.4322%
XY Fates Collide Booster Box$2754.99$447.5016%
Fates Collide Single Pack Blister [Pansear]$95.99$12.4313%
Fates Collide Single Pack Blister [Gastly]$114.66$12.4311%
Fates Collide Elite Trainer Box—$111.88TBD
Mega Mawile EX Premium Collection—$74.58TBD
Shiny Kalos Tin [Xerneas EX]—$37.29TBD
Shiny Kalos Tin [Yveltal EX]—$37.29TBD
Shiny Kalos Tin [Zygarde EX]—$37.29TBD

Where to buy

XY Fates Collide Booster Pack · XY - Fates Collide Sleeved Booster Pack [Mega Alakazam] · XY - Fates Collide Sleeved Booster Pack [Delphox BREAK] · XY - Fates Collide Sleeved Booster Pack [Zygarde] · XY - Fates Collide Sleeved Booster Pack [Lugia BREAK] · XY Fates Collide Booster Box · Fates Collide Single Pack Blister [Pansear] · Fates Collide Single Pack Blister [Gastly] · Fates Collide Elite Trainer Box · Mega Mawile EX Premium Collection · Shiny Kalos Tin [Xerneas EX] · Shiny Kalos Tin [Yveltal EX] · Shiny Kalos Tin [Zygarde EX]

Expected return by product type

ProductPrice per packExpected return
Booster Pack$46.6827%
Booster Box$76.5316%

Pull rates (source: community_estimate)

RarityPull rateSample
Secret Rare0.8%
Rare BREAK6.67%
Holo Rare14.49%
Ultra Rare18.08%
Rare66.67%
Common500%
Uncommon300%

Cards & odds

CardRarityMarket priceOddsCost to pull
Alakazam EX (Secret)Secret Rare$162.941 in 125 (0.8%)$5835.00
Umbreon EX (Full Art)Ultra Rare$150.811 in 122 (0.82%)$5680.09
M Alakazam EX (Full Art)Ultra Rare$79.391 in 122 (0.82%)$5680.09
Umbreon EXUltra Rare$63.051 in 122 (0.82%)$5680.09
Lugia BREAKRare BREAK$49.911 in 75 (1.33%)$3499.25
Glaceon EX (Full Art)Ultra Rare$43.941 in 122 (0.82%)$5680.09
Alakazam EX (Full Art)Ultra Rare$33.521 in 122 (0.82%)$5680.09
Team Rocket's Handiwork (Full Art)Ultra Rare$26.731 in 122 (0.82%)$5680.09
M Altaria EX (Full Art)Ultra Rare$25.201 in 122 (0.82%)$5680.09
Kingdra EX (Full Art)Ultra Rare$21.401 in 122 (0.82%)$5680.09
M Alakazam EXUltra Rare$19.591 in 122 (0.82%)$5680.09
Altaria EX (Full Art)Ultra Rare$18.191 in 122 (0.82%)$5680.09
Glaceon EXUltra Rare$14.491 in 122 (0.82%)$5680.09
Genesect EX (Full Art)Ultra Rare$13.161 in 122 (0.82%)$5680.09
Alakazam EXUltra Rare$12.711 in 122 (0.82%)$5680.09
M Audino EXUltra Rare$9.751 in 122 (0.82%)$5680.09
M Altaria EXUltra Rare$9.501 in 122 (0.82%)$5680.09
Audino EXUltra Rare$4.771 in 122 (0.82%)$5680.09
Diancie EXUltra Rare$4.741 in 122 (0.82%)$5680.09
Zygarde EXUltra Rare$4.211 in 122 (0.82%)$5680.09
Delphox BREAKRare BREAK$3.601 in 75 (1.33%)$3499.25
Kingdra EXUltra Rare$3.311 in 122 (0.82%)$5680.09
Altaria EXUltra Rare$3.161 in 122 (0.82%)$5680.09
Omastar BREAKRare BREAK$3.101 in 75 (1.33%)$3499.25
Carbink BREAKRare BREAK$2.911 in 75 (1.33%)$3499.25
Bronzong BREAKRare BREAK$2.611 in 75 (1.33%)$3499.25
Genesect EXUltra Rare$2.081 in 122 (0.82%)$5680.09
Regirock EXUltra Rare$2.071 in 122 (0.82%)$5680.09
SnorlaxRare$28.341 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
LugiaRare$27.301 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
MewHolo Rare$17.721 in 35 (2.9%)$1483.09
MewHolo Rare$16.171 in 35 (2.9%)$1483.09
SnorlaxRare$10.641 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
MoltresRare$9.601 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
LugiaRare$5.951 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
Lucario (63)Holo Rare$5.691 in 35 (2.9%)$1483.09
KabutoUncommon$5.531 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
N (Supporter)Uncommon$4.201 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Lucario (47)Rare$4.191 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
WigglytuffUncommon$4.051 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
WhimsicottUncommon$3.521 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Lucario (63)Holo Rare$2.861 in 35 (2.9%)$1483.09
Carbink (49)Rare$2.851 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
Fennekin (10)Common$2.681 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
JigglypuffCommon$2.551 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
TyranitarHolo Rare$2.511 in 35 (2.9%)$1483.09
AerodactylRare$2.451 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
N (Supporter)Uncommon$2.111 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Team Rocket's HandiworkUncommon$2.021 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Cinccino (88)Uncommon$1.821 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
MoltresRare$1.771 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
RotomRare$1.711 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
ShuckleUncommon$1.661 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Lucario (47)Rare$1.561 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
WigglytuffUncommon$1.431 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
TyranitarHolo Rare$1.331 in 35 (2.9%)$1483.09
MeowthCommon$1.321 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
DeerlingCommon$1.271 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
Strong EnergyUncommon$1.231 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Alakazam Spirit LinkUncommon$1.191 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
White KyuremHolo Rare$1.181 in 35 (2.9%)$1483.09
DewgongUncommon$1.151 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
SerperiorRare$1.141 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
Ultra BallUncommon$1.141 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Double Colorless EnergyUncommon$1.121 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Mr. MimeRare$1.091 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
DelphoxHolo Rare$1.081 in 35 (2.9%)$1483.09
KabutopsRare$1.081 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
ServineUncommon$1.021 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
White KyuremHolo Rare$0.881 in 35 (2.9%)$1483.09
SnubbullCommon$0.861 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
ReuniclusRare$0.831 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
Audino Spirit LinkUncommon$0.811 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
BinacleCommon$0.801 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
Altaria Spirit LinkUncommon$0.791 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Fairy DropUncommon$0.791 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Cinccino (89)Uncommon$0.771 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Fairy GardenUncommon$0.771 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
OmastarRare$0.761 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
MarowakRare$0.751 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
Strong EnergyUncommon$0.751 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
MothimRare$0.741 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
BarbaracleRare$0.731 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
Carbink (49)Rare$0.721 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
Zygarde (52)Uncommon$0.691 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
RotomRare$0.691 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
Riolu (45)Common$0.681 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
Chaos TowerUncommon$0.671 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Double Colorless EnergyUncommon$0.671 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
BraixenUncommon$0.661 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
WeezingUncommon$0.661 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
AerodactylRare$0.661 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
DuosionUncommon$0.631 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Minccino (87)Common$0.621 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
GrumpigRare$0.611 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
ExploudRare$0.611 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
LoudredUncommon$0.601 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
OmanyteUncommon$0.591 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Zygarde (53)Rare$0.591 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
SeelCommon$0.561 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
PupitarUncommon$0.561 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
WhimsicottUncommon$0.561 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
SerperiorRare$0.551 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
MandibuzzRare$0.551 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
KangaskhanUncommon$0.551 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
GothitaCommon$0.541 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
HawluchaUncommon$0.541 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Minccino (86)Common$0.541 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
Cinccino (88)Uncommon$0.531 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Random ReceiverUncommon$0.521 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Power MemoryUncommon$0.511 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
DiglettCommon$0.511 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
BronzongRare$0.511 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
Mr. MimeRare$0.511 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
Wormadam (3)Uncommon$0.501 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
KabutopsRare$0.491 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
CottoneeCommon$0.491 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
Devolution SprayUncommon$0.491 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
ReuniclusRare$0.471 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
Energy PouchUncommon$0.471 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Lass's SpecialUncommon$0.471 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
MarowakRare$0.461 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
JigglypuffCommon$0.461 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
Pokemon Fan ClubUncommon$0.451 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
SpoinkCommon$0.441 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
Larvitar (41)Common$0.441 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
Riolu (46)Common$0.441 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
DelphoxHolo Rare$0.431 in 35 (2.9%)$1483.09
Wormadam (44)Uncommon$0.431 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Scorched EarthUncommon$0.431 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
SnivyCommon$0.421 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
Zygarde (53)Rare$0.421 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
Mega CatcherUncommon$0.421 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
SolosisCommon$0.411 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
ShaunaUncommon$0.411 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
BurmyCommon$0.401 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
Wormadam (59)Uncommon$0.401 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Fossil Excavation KitUncommon$0.401 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
OmastarRare$0.391 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
Dome Fossil KabutoUncommon$0.391 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Old Amber AerodactylUncommon$0.391 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
MothimRare$0.381 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
DeerlingCommon$0.381 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
KoffingCommon$0.381 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
Larvitar (40)Common$0.381 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
BronzorCommon$0.381 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
Helix Fossil OmanyteUncommon$0.381 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
BarbaracleRare$0.371 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
Team Rocket's HandiworkUncommon$0.371 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Wormadam (3)Uncommon$0.351 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
SnubbullCommon$0.351 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
Bent SpoonUncommon$0.351 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Fairy DropUncommon$0.351 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
GrumpigRare$0.341 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
WhismurCommon$0.341 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
Energy ResetUncommon$0.341 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
BraixenUncommon$0.331 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
ShuckleUncommon$0.321 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Carbink (50)Common$0.321 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
MandibuzzRare$0.321 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
Minccino (86)Common$0.321 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
Zygarde (52)Uncommon$0.311 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
ServineUncommon$0.311 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Fennekin (11)Common$0.311 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
GothitaCommon$0.311 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
VullabyCommon$0.311 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
WeezingUncommon$0.301 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
KabutoUncommon$0.301 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
BronzongRare$0.301 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
ExploudRare$0.301 in 30 (3.33%)$1289.34
DewgongUncommon$0.291 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
OmanyteUncommon$0.291 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
MeowthCommon$0.291 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
BinacleCommon$0.281 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
SnivyCommon$0.271 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
Fennekin (10)Common$0.271 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
DiglettCommon$0.271 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
Wormadam (44)Uncommon$0.271 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Chaos TowerUncommon$0.261 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Fennekin (11)Common$0.261 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
CottoneeCommon$0.261 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
Minccino (87)Common$0.261 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
Alakazam Spirit LinkUncommon$0.261 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Altaria Spirit LinkUncommon$0.261 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Ultra BallUncommon$0.261 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
DuosionUncommon$0.251 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Riolu (46)Common$0.251 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
KangaskhanUncommon$0.251 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Cinccino (89)Uncommon$0.251 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Dome Fossil KabutoUncommon$0.251 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Random ReceiverUncommon$0.251 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
BurmyCommon$0.241 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
KoffingCommon$0.241 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
Larvitar (40)Common$0.241 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
Riolu (45)Common$0.241 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
Fairy GardenUncommon$0.241 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
LoudredUncommon$0.231 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Audino Spirit LinkUncommon$0.231 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Devolution SprayUncommon$0.231 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Energy PouchUncommon$0.231 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Power MemoryUncommon$0.221 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
SolosisCommon$0.221 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
Wormadam (59)Uncommon$0.221 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
WhismurCommon$0.221 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
Energy ResetUncommon$0.221 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Lass's SpecialUncommon$0.221 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
SeelCommon$0.211 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
Larvitar (41)Common$0.211 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
PupitarUncommon$0.211 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Bent SpoonUncommon$0.211 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Pokemon Fan ClubUncommon$0.211 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Fossil Excavation KitUncommon$0.201 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
HawluchaUncommon$0.191 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
VullabyCommon$0.191 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
Old Amber AerodactylUncommon$0.191 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
SpoinkCommon$0.181 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
Helix Fossil OmanyteUncommon$0.181 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Scorched EarthUncommon$0.161 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
ShaunaUncommon$0.161 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
Carbink (50)Common$0.151 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50
Mega CatcherUncommon$0.151 in 15 (6.52%)$659.03
BronzorCommon$0.111 in 5 (19.23%)$223.50