XY - Flashfire
A $161.83 XY - Flashfire pack returns $15.21 in expected card value on average — 9% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers XY - Flashfire. These odds come from thepricedex.com, which publishes a rate for each tier but does not say how many packs it counted to get there — so read them as indicative rather than measured. They are here because they are the best published figures for this set, and naming that limit is better than implying a precision the source never claimed.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
- Pack EV: $15.21
- Cheapest pack: $161.83 (Flashfire Booster Pack)
- Cards: 109 (200 versions)
Products in this set
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flashfire Booster Pack | $161.83 | $15.21 | 9% |
| Flashfire Sleeved Booster Pack | $187.48 | $15.21 | 8% |
| Kalos Power Tin [Delphox Tin] | — | $45.64 | TBD |
| Flashfire Booster Box | — | $547.64 | TBD |
| Flashfire Single Pack Blister [Honedge] | — | $15.21 | TBD |
| Kalos Power Tin [Chesnaught EX] | — | $45.64 | TBD |
| Flashfire Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Charizard X] | — | $45.64 | TBD |
| Flashfire Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Lucario] | — | $45.64 | TBD |
| Kalos Power Tin [Greninja] | — | $45.64 | TBD |
| Flashfire 3 Pack Blister [Haxorus] | — | $45.64 | TBD |
| Flashfire Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Charizard Y] | — | $45.64 | TBD |
| Flashfire Single Pack Blister [Skiddo] | — | $15.21 | TBD |
Where to buy
Flashfire Booster Pack · Flashfire Sleeved Booster Pack · Kalos Power Tin [Delphox Tin] · Flashfire Booster Box · Flashfire Single Pack Blister [Honedge] · Kalos Power Tin [Chesnaught EX] · Flashfire Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Charizard X] · Flashfire Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Lucario] · Kalos Power Tin [Greninja] · Flashfire 3 Pack Blister [Haxorus] · Flashfire Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Charizard Y] · Flashfire Single Pack Blister [Skiddo]
Expected return by product type
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $161.83 | 9% |
Pull rates (source: community_estimate)
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Secret Rare | 0.88% | |
| Ultra Rare | 12.74% | |
| Holo Rare | 19.61% | |
| Rare | 66.67% | |
| Common | 500% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
Cards & odds
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M Charizard EX (X) (Secret) | Secret Rare | $504.98 | 1 in 341 (0.29%) | $55169.32 |
| M Charizard EX (Y) (Secret) | Secret Rare | $310.78 | 1 in 341 (0.29%) | $55169.32 |
| Charizard EX (100 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $300.26 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $19053.77 |
| M Charizard EX (X) | Ultra Rare | $276.45 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $19053.77 |
| M Kangaskhan EX (109 Secret Rare) | Secret Rare | $73.36 | 1 in 341 (0.29%) | $55169.32 |
| M Charizard EX (Y) | Ultra Rare | $70.91 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $19053.77 |
| Pokemon Center Lady (105 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $57.93 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $19053.77 |
| Lysandre (104 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $32.63 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $19053.77 |
| Kangaskhan EX (103 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $30.17 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $19053.77 |
| Toxicroak EX (102 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $26.40 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $19053.77 |
| Pokemon Fan Club (106 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $25.46 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $19053.77 |
| Charizard EX (12) | Ultra Rare | $20.75 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $19053.77 |
| M Kangaskhan EX | Ultra Rare | $18.82 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $19053.77 |
| Magnezone EX (101 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $18.52 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $19053.77 |
| Charizard EX (11) | Ultra Rare | $15.36 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $19053.77 |
| Toxicroak EX | Ultra Rare | $5.29 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $19053.77 |
| Magnezone EX | Ultra Rare | $3.13 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $19053.77 |
| Kangaskhan EX | Ultra Rare | $3.05 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $19053.77 |
| Snorlax | Rare | $24.48 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Pal Pad | Uncommon | $9.24 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Snorlax | Rare | $6.51 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Sacred Ash | Uncommon | $6.28 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Ultra Ball | Uncommon | $4.77 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Miltank | Uncommon | $4.43 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Pidgeot | Rare | $4.21 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Milotic | Holo Rare | $3.65 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Lopunny | Rare | $3.27 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Blacksmith | Uncommon | $3.24 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Pokemon Center Lady | Uncommon | $3.10 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Furret | Rare | $2.96 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Forretress | Rare | $2.50 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Milotic | Holo Rare | $2.38 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Pidgeotto | Uncommon | $2.22 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Ponyta | Common | $2.21 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Florges | Holo Rare | $2.07 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Furret | Rare | $2.06 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Rapidash | Uncommon | $1.94 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Protection Cube | Uncommon | $1.94 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Goodra | Holo Rare | $1.88 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Luxray | Rare | $1.81 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Flabebe (62) | Common | $1.73 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Sliggoo | Uncommon | $1.72 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Butterfree | Rare | $1.59 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Floette (64) | Rare | $1.48 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Lysandre | Uncommon | $1.39 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Walrein | Rare | $1.37 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Floette (65) | Uncommon | $1.37 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Pyroar | Holo Rare | $1.35 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Espurr | Common | $1.33 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Metapod | Uncommon | $1.32 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Goodra | Holo Rare | $1.32 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Luvdisc | Uncommon | $1.30 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Florges | Holo Rare | $1.28 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Blacksmith | Uncommon | $1.28 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Forretress | Rare | $1.26 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Trick Shovel | Uncommon | $1.24 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Miltank | Uncommon | $1.23 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Carbink | Holo Rare | $1.20 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Dusclops | Uncommon | $1.19 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Torkoal | Uncommon | $1.18 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Sealeo | Uncommon | $1.16 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Sneasel (50) | Uncommon | $1.16 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Buneary | Common | $1.16 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Dragalge | Rare | $1.14 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Pidgeot | Rare | $1.09 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Meowstic | Rare | $1.04 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Luxio | Uncommon | $1.00 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Dusknoir | Holo Rare | $0.98 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Roserade | Uncommon | $0.96 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Startling Megaphone | Uncommon | $0.95 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Weavile | Rare | $0.92 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Scrafty | Rare | $0.92 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Durant | Rare | $0.92 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Druddigon | Holo Rare | $0.91 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Golem | Rare | $0.89 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Pidgey | Common | $0.89 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Floatzel | Rare | $0.88 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Pyroar | Holo Rare | $0.87 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Spheal | Common | $0.86 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Goomy | Common | $0.86 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Roselia | Common | $0.84 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Floette (64) | Rare | $0.84 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Avalugg | Uncommon | $0.82 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Duskull | Common | $0.80 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Qwilfish | Rare | $0.77 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Shinx | Common | $0.77 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Butterfree | Rare | $0.76 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Heliolisk | Rare | $0.75 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Carbink | Holo Rare | $0.75 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Shiftry | Holo Rare | $0.74 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Skuntank | Rare | $0.74 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Krokorok | Uncommon | $0.73 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Furfrou | Uncommon | $0.72 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Barbaracle | Rare | $0.71 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Graveler | Uncommon | $0.70 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Maractus | Uncommon | $0.68 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Dragalge | Rare | $0.68 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Meowstic | Rare | $0.66 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Pokemon Fan Club | Uncommon | $0.66 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Buizel | Common | $0.65 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Skrelp | Common | $0.65 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Flabebe (63) | Common | $0.64 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Druddigon | Holo Rare | $0.64 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Caterpie | Common | $0.62 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Ultra Ball | Uncommon | $0.62 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Spritzee | Common | $0.61 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Feebas | Common | $0.60 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Nuzleaf | Uncommon | $0.58 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Rapidash | Uncommon | $0.57 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Sneasel (51) | Common | $0.56 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Magnetic Storm | Uncommon | $0.56 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Fletchinder | Uncommon | $0.55 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Litleo (18) | Common | $0.55 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Pineco | Common | $0.54 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Bergmite | Common | $0.54 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Geodude | Common | $0.54 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Shiftry | Holo Rare | $0.53 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Barbaracle | Rare | $0.53 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Helioptile | Common | $0.52 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Litleo (19) | Common | $0.51 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Stunky (54) | Common | $0.51 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Sentret | Common | $0.51 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Walrein | Rare | $0.50 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Dusknoir | Holo Rare | $0.50 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Golem | Rare | $0.50 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Scraggy | Common | $0.50 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Luxray | Rare | $0.49 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Pal Pad | Uncommon | $0.49 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Heliolisk | Rare | $0.48 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Floatzel | Rare | $0.47 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Pidgeotto | Uncommon | $0.46 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Sacred Ash | Uncommon | $0.46 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Seedot | Common | $0.45 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Buneary | Common | $0.45 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Lopunny | Rare | $0.45 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Fiery Torch | Uncommon | $0.45 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Sandile | Common | $0.44 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Scrafty | Rare | $0.44 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Binacle | Common | $0.43 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Weavile | Rare | $0.43 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Stunky (53) | Common | $0.42 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Skuntank | Rare | $0.42 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Espurr | Common | $0.40 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Durant | Rare | $0.40 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Floette (65) | Uncommon | $0.40 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Sliggoo | Uncommon | $0.39 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Fletchling | Common | $0.38 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Shinx | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Ponyta | Common | $0.36 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Qwilfish | Rare | $0.36 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Pokemon Fan Club | Uncommon | $0.36 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Flabebe (63) | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Fiery Torch | Uncommon | $0.34 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Luxio | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Goomy | Common | $0.32 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Protection Cube | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Feebas | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Luvdisc | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Graveler | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Pidgey | Common | $0.30 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Pokemon Center Lady | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Startling Megaphone | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Spritzee | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Lysandre | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Litleo (18) | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Litleo (19) | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Furfrou | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Caterpie | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Fletchinder | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Sneasel (51) | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Flabebe (62) | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Metapod | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Roselia | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Maractus | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Spheal | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Sealeo | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Avalugg | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Trick Shovel | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Roserade | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Helioptile | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Dusclops | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Scraggy | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Sentret | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Bergmite | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Skrelp | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Krokorok | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Torkoal | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Duskull | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Sneasel (50) | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Buizel | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Stunky (54) | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Nuzleaf | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Geodude | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Stunky (53) | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Sandile | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Pineco | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Binacle | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Fletchling | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Seedot | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Magnetic Storm | Uncommon | $0.15 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |