A $160.85 XY - Flashfire pack returns $17.78 in expected card value on average — 11% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers XY - Flashfire, so these odds come from thepricedex.com, which discloses a disclosed sample. Sources that do not state how many packs they counted are not used here, however confident they sound.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flashfire Booster Pack | $160.85 | $17.78 | 11% |
| Flashfire Sleeved Booster Pack | $186.41 | $17.78 | 10% |
| Kalos Power Tin [Delphox Tin] | — | $53.34 | TBD |
| Flashfire Booster Box | — | $640.12 | TBD |
| Flashfire Single Pack Blister [Honedge] | — | $17.78 | TBD |
| Kalos Power Tin [Chesnaught EX] | — | $53.34 | TBD |
| Flashfire Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Charizard X] | — | $53.34 | TBD |
| Flashfire Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Lucario] | — | $53.34 | TBD |
| Kalos Power Tin [Greninja] | — | $53.34 | TBD |
| Flashfire 3 Pack Blister [Haxorus] | — | $53.34 | TBD |
| Flashfire Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Charizard Y] | — | $53.34 | TBD |
| Flashfire Single Pack Blister [Skiddo] | — | $17.78 | TBD |
Flashfire Booster Pack · Flashfire Sleeved Booster Pack · Kalos Power Tin [Delphox Tin] · Flashfire Booster Box · Flashfire Single Pack Blister [Honedge] · Kalos Power Tin [Chesnaught EX] · Flashfire Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Charizard X] · Flashfire Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Lucario] · Kalos Power Tin [Greninja] · Flashfire 3 Pack Blister [Haxorus] · Flashfire Collector Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Charizard Y] · Flashfire Single Pack Blister [Skiddo]
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $160.85 | 11% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Secret Rare | 0.88% | |
| Ultra Rare | 12.74% | |
| Holo Rare | 19.61% | |
| Rare | 66.67% | |
| Common | 500% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M Charizard EX (X) (Secret) | Secret Rare | $1501.23 | 1 in 341 (0.29%) | $54835.23 |
| M Charizard EX (Y) (Secret) | Secret Rare | $317.99 | 1 in 341 (0.29%) | $54835.23 |
| Charizard EX (100 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $287.03 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $18938.38 |
| M Charizard EX (X) | Ultra Rare | $280.02 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $18938.38 |
| M Kangaskhan EX (109 Secret Rare) | Secret Rare | $70.06 | 1 in 341 (0.29%) | $54835.23 |
| M Charizard EX (Y) | Ultra Rare | $68.55 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $18938.38 |
| Pokemon Center Lady (105 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $57.02 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $18938.38 |
| Lysandre (104 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $32.99 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $18938.38 |
| Kangaskhan EX (103 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $31.35 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $18938.38 |
| Pokemon Fan Club (106 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $25.54 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $18938.38 |
| Toxicroak EX (102 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $24.81 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $18938.38 |
| M Kangaskhan EX | Ultra Rare | $19.20 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $18938.38 |
| Magnezone EX (101 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $18.83 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $18938.38 |
| Charizard EX (12) | Ultra Rare | $18.78 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $18938.38 |
| Charizard EX (11) | Ultra Rare | $16.73 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $18938.38 |
| Toxicroak EX | Ultra Rare | $4.97 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $18938.38 |
| Magnezone EX | Ultra Rare | $2.87 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $18938.38 |
| Kangaskhan EX | Ultra Rare | $2.80 | 1 in 118 (0.85%) | $18938.38 |
| Snorlax | Rare | $24.25 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Pal Pad | Uncommon | $9.24 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Sacred Ash | Uncommon | $6.38 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Snorlax | Rare | $5.45 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Ultra Ball | Uncommon | $4.62 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Pidgeot | Rare | $4.30 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Miltank | Uncommon | $4.05 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Blacksmith | Uncommon | $3.32 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Milotic | Holo Rare | $3.19 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Lopunny | Rare | $2.88 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Furret | Rare | $2.74 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Forretress | Rare | $2.42 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Pidgeotto | Uncommon | $2.01 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Furret | Rare | $2.01 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Protection Cube | Uncommon | $1.94 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Florges | Holo Rare | $1.87 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Rapidash | Uncommon | $1.85 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Milotic | Holo Rare | $1.85 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Pokemon Center Lady | Uncommon | $1.81 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Goodra | Holo Rare | $1.77 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Luxray | Rare | $1.75 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Flabebe (62) | Common | $1.74 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Sliggoo | Uncommon | $1.54 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Ponyta | Common | $1.53 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Butterfree | Rare | $1.48 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Pyroar | Holo Rare | $1.47 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Floette (65) | Uncommon | $1.37 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Metapod | Uncommon | $1.34 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Blacksmith | Uncommon | $1.33 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Lysandre | Uncommon | $1.33 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Luvdisc | Uncommon | $1.28 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Walrein | Rare | $1.27 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Floette (64) | Rare | $1.27 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Florges | Holo Rare | $1.24 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Trick Shovel | Uncommon | $1.24 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Goodra | Holo Rare | $1.22 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Carbink | Holo Rare | $1.17 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Sealeo | Uncommon | $1.16 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Forretress | Rare | $1.15 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Pidgeot | Rare | $1.13 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Dusclops | Uncommon | $1.12 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Dragalge | Rare | $1.12 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Torkoal | Uncommon | $1.11 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Espurr | Common | $1.11 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Sneasel (50) | Uncommon | $1.11 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Luxio | Uncommon | $1.07 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Buneary | Common | $1.07 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Meowstic | Rare | $1.04 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Dusknoir | Holo Rare | $0.98 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Druddigon | Holo Rare | $0.93 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Roserade | Uncommon | $0.92 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Scrafty | Rare | $0.92 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Durant | Rare | $0.90 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Floatzel | Rare | $0.89 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Pyroar | Holo Rare | $0.88 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Spheal | Common | $0.88 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Golem | Rare | $0.88 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Weavile | Rare | $0.88 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Startling Megaphone | Uncommon | $0.88 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Goomy | Common | $0.85 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Pidgey | Common | $0.83 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Roselia | Common | $0.81 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Avalugg | Uncommon | $0.81 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Furfrou | Uncommon | $0.80 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Duskull | Common | $0.79 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Skuntank | Rare | $0.77 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Floette (64) | Rare | $0.77 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Butterfree | Rare | $0.75 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Carbink | Holo Rare | $0.75 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Qwilfish | Rare | $0.74 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Krokorok | Uncommon | $0.73 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Shiftry | Holo Rare | $0.72 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Barbaracle | Rare | $0.72 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Shinx | Common | $0.71 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Heliolisk | Rare | $0.71 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Meowstic | Rare | $0.70 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Graveler | Uncommon | $0.69 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Maractus | Uncommon | $0.68 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Flabebe (63) | Common | $0.67 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Dragalge | Rare | $0.67 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Feebas | Common | $0.64 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Druddigon | Holo Rare | $0.64 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Pokemon Fan Club | Uncommon | $0.64 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Buizel | Common | $0.63 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Spritzee | Common | $0.61 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Ultra Ball | Uncommon | $0.61 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Skrelp | Common | $0.60 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Caterpie | Common | $0.59 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Nuzleaf | Uncommon | $0.59 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Fletchinder | Uncommon | $0.59 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Luxray | Rare | $0.59 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Geodude | Common | $0.59 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Helioptile | Common | $0.56 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Magnetic Storm | Uncommon | $0.56 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Bergmite | Common | $0.55 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Sneasel (51) | Common | $0.54 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Golem | Rare | $0.53 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Shiftry | Holo Rare | $0.52 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Lopunny | Rare | $0.52 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Litleo (18) | Common | $0.50 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Floatzel | Rare | $0.50 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Barbaracle | Rare | $0.50 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Pal Pad | Uncommon | $0.50 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Binacle | Common | $0.49 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Scraggy | Common | $0.49 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Rapidash | Uncommon | $0.48 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Stunky (54) | Common | $0.48 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Sentret | Common | $0.48 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Litleo (19) | Common | $0.47 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Walrein | Rare | $0.47 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Fiery Torch | Uncommon | $0.46 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Sacred Ash | Uncommon | $0.46 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Dusknoir | Holo Rare | $0.45 | 1 in 41 (2.45%) | $6589.70 |
| Sandile | Common | $0.45 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Floette (65) | Uncommon | $0.45 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Heliolisk | Rare | $0.44 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Scrafty | Rare | $0.44 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Pidgeotto | Uncommon | $0.44 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Pineco | Common | $0.43 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Seedot | Common | $0.43 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Weavile | Rare | $0.43 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Ponyta | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Skuntank | Rare | $0.41 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Buneary | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Espurr | Common | $0.40 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Sliggoo | Uncommon | $0.39 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Stunky (53) | Common | $0.38 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Miltank | Uncommon | $0.37 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Fletchling | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Qwilfish | Rare | $0.36 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Durant | Rare | $0.36 | 1 in 30 (3.33%) | $4845.66 |
| Furfrou | Uncommon | $0.34 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Fiery Torch | Uncommon | $0.34 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Pokemon Fan Club | Uncommon | $0.33 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Luxio | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Feebas | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Shinx | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Protection Cube | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Startling Megaphone | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Sealeo | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Luvdisc | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Graveler | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Flabebe (63) | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Sentret | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Pokemon Center Lady | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Metapod | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Spritzee | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Maractus | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Litleo (19) | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Spheal | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Scraggy | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Goomy | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Lysandre | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Trick Shovel | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Caterpie | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Fletchinder | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Avalugg | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Pidgey | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Litleo (18) | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Roserade | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Bergmite | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Helioptile | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Sneasel (51) | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Flabebe (62) | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Torkoal | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Dusclops | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Skrelp | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Buizel | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Sneasel (50) | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Stunky (54) | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Krokorok | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Duskull | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Geodude | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Stunky (53) | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Pineco | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Roselia | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Binacle | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Fletchling | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Sandile | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |
| Magnetic Storm | Uncommon | $0.17 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Nuzleaf | Uncommon | $0.16 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $1722.99 |
| Seedot | Common | $0.15 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $1001.49 |