
A $229.72 XY - Phantom Forces pack returns $22.14 in expected card value on average — 10% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers XY - Phantom Forces, so these odds come from elitefourum.com, which discloses a 1,008-pack sample. A stated count is the difference between a measured rate and a confident guess, so it is recorded here whenever a source gives one.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| XY Phantom Forces Booster Pack | $229.72 | $22.14 | 10% |
| Phantom Forces Elite Trainer Box | — | $199.25 | TBD |
| Phantom Forces Single Pack Blister [Greninja] | — | $22.14 | TBD |
| Phantom Forces Single Pack Blister [Talonflame] | — | $22.14 | TBD |
| XY Phantom Forces Booster Box | — | $796.99 | TBD |
| Phantom Forces Sleeved Booster Pack | — | $22.14 | TBD |
| Phantom Forces 3 Pack Blister [Shiftry] | — | $66.42 | TBD |
| Phantom Forces Collector's Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Gengar] | — | $66.42 | TBD |
| Phantom Forces Collector's Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Kangaskhan] | — | $66.42 | TBD |
| Phantom Forces 3 Pack Blister [Darkrai] | — | $66.42 | TBD |
| Mega Diancie EX Premium Collection | — | $132.83 | TBD |
| Mega Metagross EX Premium Collection | — | $177.11 | TBD |
XY Phantom Forces Booster Pack · Phantom Forces Elite Trainer Box · Phantom Forces Single Pack Blister [Greninja] · Phantom Forces Single Pack Blister [Talonflame] · XY Phantom Forces Booster Box · Phantom Forces Sleeved Booster Pack · Phantom Forces 3 Pack Blister [Shiftry] · Phantom Forces Collector's Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Gengar] · Phantom Forces Collector's Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Kangaskhan] · Phantom Forces 3 Pack Blister [Darkrai] · Mega Diancie EX Premium Collection · Mega Metagross EX Premium Collection
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $229.72 | 10% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Secret Rare | 0.83% | n=1008 |
| Ultra Rare | 13.06% | n=1008 |
| Holo Rare | 19.44% | |
| Rare | 66.67% | |
| Common | 500% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dialga EX (122 Secret Rare) | Secret Rare | $1053.88 | 1 in 361 (0.28%) | $83031.33 |
| Gengar EX (114 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $811.81 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26384.38 |
| M Gengar EX (121 Secret Rare) | Secret Rare | $501.97 | 1 in 361 (0.28%) | $83031.33 |
| M Gengar EX | Ultra Rare | $168.06 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26384.38 |
| Gengar EX | Ultra Rare | $84.23 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26384.38 |
| M Manectric EX (120 Secret Rare) | Secret Rare | $54.96 | 1 in 361 (0.28%) | $83031.33 |
| AZ (117 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $25.53 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26384.38 |
| Florges EX (116 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $23.81 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26384.38 |
| Malamar EX (115 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $18.90 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26384.38 |
| Manectric EX (113 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $18.87 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26384.38 |
| Lysandre's Trump Card (118 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $16.60 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26384.38 |
| M Manectric EX | Ultra Rare | $13.71 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26384.38 |
| Dialga EX | Ultra Rare | $11.67 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26384.38 |
| Xerosic (119 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $7.10 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26384.38 |
| Florges EX | Ultra Rare | $6.12 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26384.38 |
| Aegislash EX | Ultra Rare | $3.97 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26384.38 |
| Manectric EX | Ultra Rare | $3.47 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26384.38 |
| Malamar EX | Ultra Rare | $3.23 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26384.38 |
| Gengar Spirit Link | Uncommon | $32.41 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Diancie | Holo Rare | $9.08 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Battle Compressor | Uncommon | $8.18 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| VS Seeker | Uncommon | $7.51 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Gengar Spirit Link | Uncommon | $5.69 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Goodra | Holo Rare | $5.28 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Diancie | Holo Rare | $5.20 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Swalot | Rare | $5.16 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Wobbuffet | Uncommon | $4.98 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Mystery Energy | Uncommon | $4.85 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Slurpuff | Holo Rare | $4.81 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Feraligatr | Holo Rare | $4.56 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Chandelure | Holo Rare | $4.41 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| VS Seeker | Uncommon | $4.24 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Feraligatr | Holo Rare | $4.13 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Joltik | Common | $3.82 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Bronzong | Rare | $3.82 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Lampent | Uncommon | $3.76 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Mystery Energy | Uncommon | $3.64 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Crobat | Rare | $3.16 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Battle Compressor | Uncommon | $3.14 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Croconaw | Uncommon | $3.03 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Bronzong | Rare | $3.03 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Hydreigon | Holo Rare | $2.96 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Dimension Valley | Uncommon | $2.66 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Head Ringer | Holo Rare | $2.54 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Pumpkaboo | Common | $2.52 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Slurpuff | Holo Rare | $2.46 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Swirlix | Common | $2.40 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Furfrou | Uncommon | $2.15 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Goodra | Holo Rare | $2.13 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Pachirisu | Rare | $2.09 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Chandelure | Holo Rare | $1.95 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Hydreigon | Holo Rare | $1.78 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Swadloon | Uncommon | $1.77 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Jellicent | Rare | $1.76 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Wobbuffet | Uncommon | $1.76 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Dedenne | Common | $1.74 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Totodile | Common | $1.69 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Regigigas | Holo Rare | $1.68 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Dedenne | Common | $1.53 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Blissey | Rare | $1.47 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Swalot | Rare | $1.38 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Gourgeist | Holo Rare | $1.35 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Kingler | Uncommon | $1.26 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Mightyena | Rare | $1.25 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Skarmory | Common | $1.25 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Lysandre's Trump Card | Uncommon | $1.23 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Jamming Net | Holo Rare | $1.22 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Talonflame | Rare | $1.17 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Robo Substitute | Uncommon | $1.14 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Gourgeist | Holo Rare | $1.13 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Double Colorless Energy | Uncommon | $1.13 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Poochyena | Common | $1.10 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Regigigas | Holo Rare | $1.10 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Venomoth | Rare | $1.09 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Pyroar | Holo Rare | $1.04 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Pyroar | Holo Rare | $1.02 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Gulpin | Common | $0.99 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Leavanny | Rare | $0.97 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Gigalith | Holo Rare | $0.93 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Escavalier | Rare | $0.92 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Honchkrow | Rare | $0.90 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Manectric Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.86 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Golbat | Uncommon | $0.84 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Lumineon | Uncommon | $0.82 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Galvantula | Rare | $0.81 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Zubat | Common | $0.81 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Spiritomb | Rare | $0.81 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| AZ | Uncommon | $0.81 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Liepard | Uncommon | $0.80 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Enhanced Hammer | Uncommon | $0.80 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Helioptile (28) | Common | $0.79 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Sliggoo | Uncommon | $0.79 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Gliscor | Rare | $0.77 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Venomoth | Rare | $0.76 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Jellicent | Rare | $0.76 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Fearow | Uncommon | $0.76 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Swirlix | Common | $0.74 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Trick Coin | Uncommon | $0.74 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Dimension Valley | Uncommon | $0.73 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Purrloin | Common | $0.72 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Goomy | Common | $0.72 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Exploud | Rare | $0.71 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Musharna | Rare | $0.70 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Klefki | Uncommon | $0.70 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Chansey | Common | $0.70 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Loudred | Uncommon | $0.70 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Professor Sycamore | Uncommon | $0.68 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Heliolisk | Holo Rare | $0.67 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Girafarig | Uncommon | $0.67 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Frillish | Common | $0.66 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Alomomola | Common | $0.64 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Helioptile (29) | Common | $0.64 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Heatran | Holo Rare | $0.64 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Zweilous | Uncommon | $0.64 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Diggersby | Rare | $0.64 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Deino | Common | $0.62 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Double Colorless Energy | Uncommon | $0.62 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Swadloon | Uncommon | $0.61 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Mightyena | Rare | $0.61 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Litwick | Common | $0.60 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Murkrow | Common | $0.60 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Yanmega | Rare | $0.59 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Krabby | Common | $0.59 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Yanma | Common | $0.58 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Finneon | Common | $0.58 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Gligar | Common | $0.58 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Venonat | Common | $0.57 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Talonflame | Rare | $0.57 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Honchkrow | Rare | $0.57 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Blissey | Rare | $0.57 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Fletchling | Common | $0.57 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Heliolisk | Holo Rare | $0.56 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Crobat | Rare | $0.56 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Fletchinder | Uncommon | $0.55 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Totodile | Common | $0.55 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Heatran | Holo Rare | $0.55 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Leavanny | Rare | $0.54 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Joltik | Common | $0.54 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Target Whistle | Uncommon | $0.54 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Croconaw | Uncommon | $0.53 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Pachirisu | Rare | $0.53 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Lampent | Uncommon | $0.53 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Gigalith | Holo Rare | $0.53 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Litleo | Common | $0.52 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Spearow | Common | $0.52 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Steel Shelter | Uncommon | $0.52 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Boldore | Uncommon | $0.51 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Xerosic | Uncommon | $0.49 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Furfrou | Uncommon | $0.47 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Sewaddle | Common | $0.46 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Roller Skates | Uncommon | $0.46 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Galvantula | Rare | $0.45 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Whismur | Common | $0.45 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Shauna | Uncommon | $0.45 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Munna | Common | $0.44 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Spiritomb | Rare | $0.44 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Robo Substitute | Uncommon | $0.44 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Tierno | Uncommon | $0.44 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Lumineon | Uncommon | $0.41 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Liepard | Uncommon | $0.41 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Bronzor | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Yanmega | Rare | $0.40 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Musharna | Rare | $0.40 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Poochyena | Common | $0.40 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Lysandre's Trump Card | Uncommon | $0.40 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Bunnelby | Common | $0.39 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Litwick | Common | $0.38 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Gliscor | Rare | $0.38 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Kingler | Uncommon | $0.36 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Gulpin | Common | $0.36 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Sliggoo | Uncommon | $0.36 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Girafarig | Uncommon | $0.36 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Exploud | Rare | $0.36 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Hand Scope | Uncommon | $0.36 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Murkrow | Common | $0.35 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Goomy | Common | $0.35 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Karrablast | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Golbat | Uncommon | $0.33 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Pumpkaboo | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Roggenrola | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Escavalier | Rare | $0.33 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Klefki | Uncommon | $0.33 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Chansey | Common | $0.32 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Enhanced Hammer | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Litleo | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| AZ | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Target Whistle | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Trick Coin | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Frillish | Common | $0.30 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Sewaddle | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Skarmory | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Loudred | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Manectric Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Xerosic | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Venonat | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Finneon | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Helioptile (28) | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Munna | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Diggersby | Rare | $0.27 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Roggenrola | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Boldore | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Whismur | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Krabby | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Roller Skates | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Steel Shelter | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Zweilous | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Fearow | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Fletchinder | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Helioptile (29) | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Gligar | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Fletchling | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Bunnelby | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Professor Sycamore | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Yanma | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Karrablast | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Alomomola | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Purrloin | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Deino | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Shauna | Uncommon | $0.20 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Bronzor | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Hand Scope | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Zubat | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Spearow | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Tierno | Uncommon | $0.12 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |