A $230.17 XY - Phantom Forces pack returns $21.02 in expected card value on average — 9% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers XY - Phantom Forces, so these odds come from elitefourum.com, which discloses a 1,008-pack sample. Sources that do not state how many packs they counted are not used here, however confident they sound.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| XY Phantom Forces Booster Pack | $230.17 | $21.02 | 9% |
| Phantom Forces Elite Trainer Box | — | $189.19 | TBD |
| Phantom Forces Single Pack Blister [Greninja] | — | $21.02 | TBD |
| Phantom Forces Single Pack Blister [Talonflame] | — | $21.02 | TBD |
| XY Phantom Forces Booster Box | — | $756.75 | TBD |
| Phantom Forces Sleeved Booster Pack | — | $21.02 | TBD |
| Phantom Forces 3 Pack Blister [Shiftry] | — | $63.06 | TBD |
| Phantom Forces 3 Pack Blister [Darkrai] | — | $63.06 | TBD |
| Phantom Forces Collector's Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Gengar] | — | $63.06 | TBD |
| Phantom Forces Collector's Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Kangaskhan] | — | $63.06 | TBD |
| Mega Diancie EX Premium Collection | — | $126.13 | TBD |
| Mega Metagross EX Premium Collection | — | $168.17 | TBD |
XY Phantom Forces Booster Pack · Phantom Forces Elite Trainer Box · Phantom Forces Single Pack Blister [Greninja] · Phantom Forces Single Pack Blister [Talonflame] · XY Phantom Forces Booster Box · Phantom Forces Sleeved Booster Pack · Phantom Forces 3 Pack Blister [Shiftry] · Phantom Forces 3 Pack Blister [Darkrai] · Phantom Forces Collector's Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Gengar] · Phantom Forces Collector's Pin 3 Pack Blister [Mega Kangaskhan] · Mega Diancie EX Premium Collection · Mega Metagross EX Premium Collection
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $230.17 | 9% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Secret Rare | 0.83% | n=1008 |
| Ultra Rare | 13.06% | n=1008 |
| Holo Rare | 19.44% | |
| Rare | 66.67% | |
| Common | 500% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dialga EX (122 Secret Rare) | Secret Rare | $1039.32 | 1 in 361 (0.28%) | $83193.98 |
| Gengar EX (114 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $765.03 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26436.06 |
| M Gengar EX (121 Secret Rare) | Secret Rare | $528.20 | 1 in 361 (0.28%) | $83193.98 |
| M Gengar EX | Ultra Rare | $155.34 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26436.06 |
| Gengar EX | Ultra Rare | $83.54 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26436.06 |
| M Manectric EX (120 Secret Rare) | Secret Rare | $52.61 | 1 in 361 (0.28%) | $83193.98 |
| AZ (117 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $26.74 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26436.06 |
| Florges EX (116 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $22.62 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26436.06 |
| Malamar EX (115 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $19.33 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26436.06 |
| Manectric EX (113 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $18.98 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26436.06 |
| Lysandre's Trump Card (118 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $16.91 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26436.06 |
| M Manectric EX | Ultra Rare | $13.62 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26436.06 |
| Dialga EX | Ultra Rare | $10.84 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26436.06 |
| Xerosic (119 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $7.24 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26436.06 |
| Florges EX | Ultra Rare | $6.20 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26436.06 |
| Aegislash EX | Ultra Rare | $4.05 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26436.06 |
| Manectric EX | Ultra Rare | $3.18 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26436.06 |
| Malamar EX | Ultra Rare | $2.78 | 1 in 115 (0.87%) | $26436.06 |
| Gengar Spirit Link | Uncommon | $22.11 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Battle Compressor | Uncommon | $7.70 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| VS Seeker | Uncommon | $7.41 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Gengar Spirit Link | Uncommon | $5.38 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Diancie | Holo Rare | $5.30 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Mystery Energy | Uncommon | $5.15 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Goodra | Holo Rare | $5.14 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Wobbuffet | Uncommon | $5.01 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Diancie | Holo Rare | $4.87 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Slurpuff | Holo Rare | $4.78 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Swalot | Rare | $4.68 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| VS Seeker | Uncommon | $4.55 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Feraligatr | Holo Rare | $3.77 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Bronzong | Rare | $3.55 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Lampent | Uncommon | $3.36 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Joltik | Common | $3.27 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Crobat | Rare | $3.24 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Mystery Energy | Uncommon | $3.19 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Chandelure | Holo Rare | $3.17 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Battle Compressor | Uncommon | $3.13 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Feraligatr | Holo Rare | $3.11 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Hydreigon | Holo Rare | $3.04 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Bronzong | Rare | $2.90 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Dimension Valley | Uncommon | $2.72 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Head Ringer | Holo Rare | $2.63 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Croconaw | Uncommon | $2.60 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Slurpuff | Holo Rare | $2.41 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Pumpkaboo | Common | $2.30 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Swirlix | Common | $2.27 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Goodra | Holo Rare | $2.01 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Pachirisu | Rare | $2.00 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Chandelure | Holo Rare | $1.93 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Wobbuffet | Uncommon | $1.81 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Swadloon | Uncommon | $1.79 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Jellicent | Rare | $1.74 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Hydreigon | Holo Rare | $1.68 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Regigigas | Holo Rare | $1.65 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Dedenne | Common | $1.50 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Swalot | Rare | $1.34 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Furfrou | Uncommon | $1.32 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Blissey | Rare | $1.28 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Jamming Net | Holo Rare | $1.27 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Totodile | Common | $1.26 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Gourgeist | Holo Rare | $1.26 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Lysandre's Trump Card | Uncommon | $1.23 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Mightyena | Rare | $1.21 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Skarmory | Common | $1.20 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Kingler | Uncommon | $1.19 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Double Colorless Energy | Uncommon | $1.19 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Regigigas | Holo Rare | $1.17 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Venomoth | Rare | $1.09 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Talonflame | Rare | $1.08 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Robo Substitute | Uncommon | $1.06 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Pyroar | Holo Rare | $1.02 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Gourgeist | Holo Rare | $1.01 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Pyroar | Holo Rare | $0.97 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Lumineon | Uncommon | $0.96 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Leavanny | Rare | $0.94 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Gigalith | Holo Rare | $0.94 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Poochyena | Common | $0.92 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Escavalier | Rare | $0.90 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Gulpin | Common | $0.87 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Honchkrow | Rare | $0.85 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Dimension Valley | Uncommon | $0.84 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Golbat | Uncommon | $0.83 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Zubat | Common | $0.81 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Enhanced Hammer | Uncommon | $0.81 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Jellicent | Rare | $0.80 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Galvantula | Rare | $0.80 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Helioptile (28) | Common | $0.80 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Spiritomb | Rare | $0.80 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Liepard | Uncommon | $0.76 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Sliggoo | Uncommon | $0.76 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| AZ | Uncommon | $0.76 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Venomoth | Rare | $0.75 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Purrloin | Common | $0.75 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Gliscor | Rare | $0.73 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Klefki | Uncommon | $0.73 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Manectric Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.73 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Mightyena | Rare | $0.72 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Trick Coin | Uncommon | $0.72 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Swadloon | Uncommon | $0.71 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Dedenne | Common | $0.70 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Girafarig | Uncommon | $0.70 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Professor Sycamore | Uncommon | $0.70 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Fearow | Uncommon | $0.69 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Loudred | Uncommon | $0.69 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Goomy | Common | $0.68 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Exploud | Rare | $0.68 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Chansey | Common | $0.67 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Heliolisk | Holo Rare | $0.66 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Joltik | Common | $0.65 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Helioptile (29) | Common | $0.65 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Double Colorless Energy | Uncommon | $0.64 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Heatran | Holo Rare | $0.63 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Frillish | Common | $0.62 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Litwick | Common | $0.61 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Zweilous | Uncommon | $0.61 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Diggersby | Rare | $0.61 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Venonat | Common | $0.60 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Murkrow | Common | $0.60 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Heatran | Holo Rare | $0.60 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Finneon | Common | $0.59 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Yanmega | Rare | $0.58 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Krabby | Common | $0.58 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Crobat | Rare | $0.58 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Musharna | Rare | $0.58 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Blissey | Rare | $0.57 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Leavanny | Rare | $0.56 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Alomomola | Common | $0.56 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Gigalith | Holo Rare | $0.56 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Deino | Common | $0.56 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Honchkrow | Rare | $0.54 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Fletchling | Common | $0.54 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Litleo | Common | $0.53 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Pachirisu | Rare | $0.53 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Steel Shelter | Uncommon | $0.53 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Heliolisk | Holo Rare | $0.51 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $15201.95 |
| Boldore | Uncommon | $0.50 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Yanma | Common | $0.49 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Sewaddle | Common | $0.49 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Lumineon | Uncommon | $0.49 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Spearow | Common | $0.49 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Fletchinder | Uncommon | $0.48 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Galvantula | Rare | $0.48 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Swirlix | Common | $0.48 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Xerosic | Uncommon | $0.48 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Target Whistle | Uncommon | $0.47 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Spiritomb | Rare | $0.46 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Talonflame | Rare | $0.45 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Gligar | Common | $0.45 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Robo Substitute | Uncommon | $0.45 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Furfrou | Uncommon | $0.44 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Shauna | Uncommon | $0.44 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Liepard | Uncommon | $0.43 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Munna | Common | $0.42 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Roller Skates | Uncommon | $0.42 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Kingler | Uncommon | $0.41 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Croconaw | Uncommon | $0.41 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Lampent | Uncommon | $0.41 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Bronzor | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Whismur | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Bunnelby | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Tierno | Uncommon | $0.41 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Yanmega | Rare | $0.39 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Musharna | Rare | $0.39 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Gliscor | Rare | $0.39 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Poochyena | Common | $0.39 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Lysandre's Trump Card | Uncommon | $0.39 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Totodile | Common | $0.38 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Chansey | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| AZ | Uncommon | $0.37 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Klefki | Uncommon | $0.36 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Sliggoo | Uncommon | $0.36 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Girafarig | Uncommon | $0.36 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Exploud | Rare | $0.35 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Litleo | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Golbat | Uncommon | $0.34 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Gulpin | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Litwick | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Pumpkaboo | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Roggenrola | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Goomy | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Hand Scope | Uncommon | $0.33 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Frillish | Common | $0.32 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Trick Coin | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Karrablast | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Diggersby | Rare | $0.31 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Target Whistle | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Loudred | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Enhanced Hammer | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Murkrow | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Skarmory | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Escavalier | Rare | $0.29 | 1 in 28 (3.51%) | $6015.76 |
| Manectric Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Finneon | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Xerosic | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Venonat | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Sewaddle | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Munna | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Boldore | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Helioptile (28) | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Fletchinder | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Krabby | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Roggenrola | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Zweilous | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Fearow | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Steel Shelter | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Helioptile (29) | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Whismur | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Professor Sycamore | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Roller Skates | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Gligar | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Purrloin | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Bronzor | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Alomomola | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Karrablast | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Zubat | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Deino | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Spearow | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Fletchling | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Yanma | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Bunnelby | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 7 (14.71%) | $1435.41 |
| Shauna | Uncommon | $0.16 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Hand Scope | Uncommon | $0.15 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |
| Tierno | Uncommon | $0.09 | 1 in 12 (8.11%) | $2603.44 |