A $78.12 XY - Roaring Skies pack returns $20.00 in expected card value on average — 26% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers XY - Roaring Skies, so these odds come from thepricedex.com, which discloses a disclosed sample. Sources that do not state how many packs they counted are not used here, however confident they sound.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roaring Skies Booster Pack | $78.12 | $20.00 | 26% |
| Dragonite Collector's Pin 3 Pack Blister | $309.00 | $59.99 | 19% |
| Roaring Skies Sleeved Booster Pack | $118.32 | $20.00 | 17% |
| XY Roaring Skies Booster Box | $4280.92 | $719.84 | 17% |
| Hoenn Power Tin [Sceptile] | $650.00 | $59.99 | 9% |
| Hoenn Power Tin [Swampert] | — | $59.99 | TBD |
| XY Roaring Skies Elite Trainer Box | — | $179.96 | TBD |
| Roaring Skies 3 Pack Blister [Pangoro] | — | $59.99 | TBD |
| Roaring Skies 3 Pack Blister [Regirock] | — | $59.99 | TBD |
| Mega Absol EX Premium Collection | — | $119.97 | TBD |
| Hoenn Power Tin [Blaziken] | — | $59.99 | TBD |
Roaring Skies Booster Pack · Dragonite Collector's Pin 3 Pack Blister · Roaring Skies Sleeved Booster Pack · XY Roaring Skies Booster Box · Hoenn Power Tin [Sceptile] · Hoenn Power Tin [Swampert] · XY Roaring Skies Elite Trainer Box · Roaring Skies 3 Pack Blister [Pangoro] · Roaring Skies 3 Pack Blister [Regirock] · Mega Absol EX Premium Collection · Hoenn Power Tin [Blaziken]
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $78.12 | 26% |
| Booster Box | $118.91 | 17% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Secret Rare | 0.8% | |
| Holo Rare | 15.63% | |
| Ultra Rare | 16.99% | |
| Rare | 66.67% | |
| Common | 500% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M Rayquaza EX (105 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $519.12 | 1 in 129 (0.77%) | $10115.60 |
| Rayquaza EX (104 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $242.68 | 1 in 129 (0.77%) | $10115.60 |
| M Rayquaza EX (61) | Ultra Rare | $175.11 | 1 in 129 (0.77%) | $10115.60 |
| M Rayquaza EX (76) | Ultra Rare | $107.68 | 1 in 129 (0.77%) | $10115.60 |
| M Latios EX (102 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $100.97 | 1 in 129 (0.77%) | $10115.60 |
| Latios EX (101 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $68.27 | 1 in 129 (0.77%) | $10115.60 |
| M Gallade EX (100 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $53.89 | 1 in 129 (0.77%) | $10115.60 |
| Rayquaza EX (75) | Ultra Rare | $40.78 | 1 in 129 (0.77%) | $10115.60 |
| Hydreigon EX (103 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $38.47 | 1 in 129 (0.77%) | $10115.60 |
| Winona (108 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $36.74 | 1 in 129 (0.77%) | $10115.60 |
| Rayquaza EX (60) | Ultra Rare | $28.80 | 1 in 129 (0.77%) | $10115.60 |
| Shaymin EX (106 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $26.87 | 1 in 129 (0.77%) | $10115.60 |
| Energy Switch | Secret Rare | $25.00 | 1 in 250 (0.4%) | $19530.00 |
| M Latios EX | Ultra Rare | $24.23 | 1 in 129 (0.77%) | $10115.60 |
| Thundurus EX (98 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $19.76 | 1 in 129 (0.77%) | $10115.60 |
| VS Seeker | Secret Rare | $19.23 | 1 in 250 (0.4%) | $19530.00 |
| Gallade EX (99 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $18.78 | 1 in 129 (0.77%) | $10115.60 |
| Wally (107 Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $17.69 | 1 in 129 (0.77%) | $10115.60 |
| M Gallade EX | Ultra Rare | $15.94 | 1 in 129 (0.77%) | $10115.60 |
| Shaymin EX | Ultra Rare | $10.71 | 1 in 129 (0.77%) | $10115.60 |
| Latios EX | Ultra Rare | $10.26 | 1 in 129 (0.77%) | $10115.60 |
| Hydreigon EX | Ultra Rare | $6.40 | 1 in 129 (0.77%) | $10115.60 |
| Gallade EX | Ultra Rare | $3.31 | 1 in 129 (0.77%) | $10115.60 |
| Thundurus EX | Ultra Rare | $2.29 | 1 in 129 (0.77%) | $10115.60 |
| Dragonite (52 Delta) | Holo Rare | $31.35 | 1 in 64 (1.56%) | $4645.55 |
| Dragonite (52 Delta) | Holo Rare | $24.72 | 1 in 64 (1.56%) | $4645.55 |
| Jirachi | Holo Rare | $16.91 | 1 in 64 (1.56%) | $4645.55 |
| Rayquaza Spirit Link | Uncommon | $16.11 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Dragonite (51) | Rare | $14.54 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Jirachi | Holo Rare | $12.49 | 1 in 64 (1.56%) | $4645.55 |
| Double Dragon Energy | Uncommon | $11.89 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Articuno (17 Delta) | Rare | $11.67 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Togekiss (45) | Rare | $7.06 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Pikachu | Common | $6.84 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Altaria (74 Delta) | Rare | $5.97 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Meowth | Common | $5.24 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Togekiss (46 Delta) | Holo Rare | $4.63 | 1 in 64 (1.56%) | $4645.55 |
| Deoxys | Holo Rare | $4.04 | 1 in 64 (1.56%) | $4645.55 |
| Togekiss (46 Delta) | Holo Rare | $3.91 | 1 in 64 (1.56%) | $4645.55 |
| Deoxys | Holo Rare | $3.89 | 1 in 64 (1.56%) | $4645.55 |
| Dragonite (51) | Rare | $3.85 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Articuno (17 Delta) | Rare | $3.81 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Reshiram | Holo Rare | $3.74 | 1 in 64 (1.56%) | $4645.55 |
| Reshiram | Holo Rare | $3.72 | 1 in 64 (1.56%) | $4645.55 |
| Electrode | Uncommon | $3.50 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Double Dragon Energy | Uncommon | $3.42 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Banette (32 Delta) | Rare | $3.39 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Togepi | Common | $3.19 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Dustox (8 Delta) | Rare | $3.05 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Articuno (16) | Rare | $2.71 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Swellow (72 Delta) | Holo Rare | $2.71 | 1 in 64 (1.56%) | $4645.55 |
| Swellow (72 Delta) | Holo Rare | $2.63 | 1 in 64 (1.56%) | $4645.55 |
| Trainers' Mail | Uncommon | $2.51 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Trainers' Mail | Uncommon | $2.42 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Salamence | Holo Rare | $2.26 | 1 in 64 (1.56%) | $4645.55 |
| Inkay | Common | $2.24 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Zekrom | Holo Rare | $2.22 | 1 in 64 (1.56%) | $4645.55 |
| Exeggcute | Common | $2.11 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Natu (28 Delta) | Common | $1.92 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Zapdos | Rare | $1.91 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Sky Field | Uncommon | $1.87 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Salamence | Holo Rare | $1.82 | 1 in 64 (1.56%) | $4645.55 |
| Ultra Ball | Uncommon | $1.80 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Zekrom | Holo Rare | $1.76 | 1 in 64 (1.56%) | $4645.55 |
| Shuppet | Common | $1.75 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Togekiss (45) | Rare | $1.73 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Dragonair | Uncommon | $1.67 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Pikachu | Common | $1.59 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Altaria (74 Delta) | Rare | $1.58 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Absol | Holo Rare | $1.27 | 1 in 64 (1.56%) | $4645.55 |
| Absol | Holo Rare | $1.25 | 1 in 64 (1.56%) | $4645.55 |
| Unfezant (81 Delta) | Rare | $1.25 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Articuno (16) | Rare | $1.18 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Dunsparce | Common | $1.16 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Togetic | Uncommon | $1.13 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Zapdos | Rare | $0.94 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Banette (31) | Rare | $0.93 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Dratini | Common | $0.93 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Exeggutor | Uncommon | $0.85 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Banette (32 Delta) | Rare | $0.84 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Steven | Uncommon | $0.84 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Carbink | Rare | $0.82 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Rayquaza Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.79 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Gallade Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.78 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Shedinja | Rare | $0.77 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Sky Field | Uncommon | $0.76 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Shelgon | Uncommon | $0.74 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Latios Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.72 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Winona | Uncommon | $0.72 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Ninjask | Uncommon | $0.70 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Gliscor | Uncommon | $0.70 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Switch | Uncommon | $0.69 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Dunsparce | Common | $0.68 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Beautifly | Holo Rare | $0.67 | 1 in 64 (1.56%) | $4645.55 |
| Victini | Rare | $0.67 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Beautifly | Holo Rare | $0.64 | 1 in 64 (1.56%) | $4645.55 |
| Swablu | Common | $0.64 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Meowth | Common | $0.60 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Skarmory | Rare | $0.60 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Wide Lens | Uncommon | $0.59 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Klefki | Rare | $0.58 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Altaria (53) | Uncommon | $0.58 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Talonflame | Rare | $0.57 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Dustox (8 Delta) | Rare | $0.55 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Wally | Uncommon | $0.55 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Silcoon | Uncommon | $0.54 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Togepi | Common | $0.54 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Xatu | Rare | $0.51 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Unfezant (81 Delta) | Rare | $0.50 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Mega Turbo | Uncommon | $0.50 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Swellow (71) | Rare | $0.49 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Bagon (54) | Common | $0.48 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Fletchinder | Uncommon | $0.47 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Banette (31) | Rare | $0.46 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Dragonair | Uncommon | $0.46 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Tranquill | Uncommon | $0.46 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Wingull | Common | $0.45 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Togetic | Uncommon | $0.45 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Healing Scarf | Uncommon | $0.45 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Revive | Uncommon | $0.45 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Inkay | Common | $0.44 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Wurmple | Common | $0.43 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Shedinja | Rare | $0.43 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Voltorb | Common | $0.42 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Electrode | Uncommon | $0.42 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Carbink | Rare | $0.42 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Klefki | Rare | $0.42 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Manectric | Uncommon | $0.40 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Altaria (53) | Uncommon | $0.39 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Exeggcute | Common | $0.38 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Shuppet | Common | $0.38 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Fearow | Uncommon | $0.38 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Pidove | Common | $0.38 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Dustox (7) | Uncommon | $0.37 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Natu (28 Delta) | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Gligar | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Binacle | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Dratini | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Bagon (55) | Common | $0.36 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Pelipper | Uncommon | $0.35 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Nincada | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Victini | Rare | $0.34 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Electrike | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Taillow | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Natu (27) | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Hawlucha | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Talonflame | Rare | $0.32 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Shelgon | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Spearow | Common | $0.32 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Swellow (71) | Rare | $0.32 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Ultra Ball | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Exeggutor | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Tropius | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Gliscor | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Steven | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Wally | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Winona | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Cascoon | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Unfezant (80) | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Xatu | Rare | $0.28 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Skarmory | Rare | $0.28 | 1 in 27 (3.7%) | $1960.37 |
| Latios Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Fletchling | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Wurmple | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Hawlucha | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Silcoon | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Tranquill | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Mega Turbo | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Revive | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Dustox (7) | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Pidove | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Gallade Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Swablu | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Healing Scarf | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Manectric | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Ninjask | Uncommon | $0.20 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Pelipper | Uncommon | $0.20 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Tropius | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Bagon (54) | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Bagon (55) | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Wide Lens | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Nincada | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Gligar | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Wingull | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Electrike | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Taillow | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Unfezant (80) | Uncommon | $0.17 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Voltorb | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Natu (27) | Common | $0.15 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Fletchling | Common | $0.15 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Fletchinder | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Binacle | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Spearow | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Switch | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |
| Cascoon | Common | $0.13 | 1 in 5 (19.23%) | $377.57 |
| Fearow | Uncommon | $0.13 | 1 in 11 (9.38%) | $774.51 |