A $31.70 XY - Steam Siege pack returns $6.09 in expected card value on average — 19% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers XY - Steam Siege, so these odds come from thepricedex.com, which discloses a disclosed sample. Sources that do not state how many packs they counted are not used here, however confident they sound.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steam Siege Booster Pack | $31.70 | $6.09 | 19% |
| Steam Siege Booster Box | $1299.99 | $219.09 | 17% |
| Steam Siege Single Pack Blister [Floette] | $37.29 | $6.09 | 16% |
| XY Steam Siege Sleeved Booster Pack | $39.13 | $6.09 | 16% |
| Steam Siege Single Pack Blister [Lucario] | $63.73 | $6.09 | 10% |
| Steam Siege Elite Trainer Box | $1800.00 | $54.77 | 3% |
| Steam Siege Collectible Pin 3 Pack Blister [Volcanion] | — | $18.26 | TBD |
| Steam Siege Collectible Pin 3 Pack Blister [Shiny Mega Gardevoir] | — | $18.26 | TBD |
| Battle Heart Tin [Magearna EX] | — | $18.26 | TBD |
| Battle Heart Tin [Pikachu EX] | — | $18.26 | TBD |
| Battle Heart Tin [Volcanion EX] | — | $18.26 | TBD |
| Steam Siege 3 Pack Blister [Azelf] | — | $18.26 | TBD |
| Steam Siege 3 Pack Blister [Rayquaza] | — | $18.26 | TBD |
Steam Siege Booster Pack · Steam Siege Booster Box · Steam Siege Single Pack Blister [Floette] · XY Steam Siege Sleeved Booster Pack · Steam Siege Single Pack Blister [Lucario] · Steam Siege Elite Trainer Box · Steam Siege Collectible Pin 3 Pack Blister [Volcanion] · Steam Siege Collectible Pin 3 Pack Blister [Shiny Mega Gardevoir] · Battle Heart Tin [Magearna EX] · Battle Heart Tin [Pikachu EX] · Battle Heart Tin [Volcanion EX] · Steam Siege 3 Pack Blister [Azelf] · Steam Siege 3 Pack Blister [Rayquaza]
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $31.70 | 19% |
| Booster Box | $36.11 | 17% |
| Elite Trainer Box | $200.00 | 3% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Secret Rare | 0.8% | |
| Rare BREAK | 6.67% | |
| Ultra Rare | 12.55% | |
| Holo Rare | 20% | |
| Rare | 66.67% | |
| Common | 500% | |
| Uncommon | 300% |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardevoir EX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $107.87 | 1 in 250 (0.4%) | $7925.00 |
| M Gardevoir EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $56.29 | 1 in 112 (0.9%) | $3536.25 |
| Volcanion EX (Secret) | Secret Rare | $37.02 | 1 in 250 (0.4%) | $7925.00 |
| M Steelix EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $30.21 | 1 in 112 (0.9%) | $3536.25 |
| Gardevoir EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $25.16 | 1 in 112 (0.9%) | $3536.25 |
| M Gardevoir EX | Ultra Rare | $23.47 | 1 in 112 (0.9%) | $3536.25 |
| Steelix EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $18.65 | 1 in 112 (0.9%) | $3536.25 |
| Professor Sycamore | Ultra Rare | $13.80 | 1 in 112 (0.9%) | $3536.25 |
| M Steelix EX | Ultra Rare | $10.91 | 1 in 112 (0.9%) | $3536.25 |
| Volcanion EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $10.68 | 1 in 112 (0.9%) | $3536.25 |
| Magearna EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $9.26 | 1 in 112 (0.9%) | $3536.25 |
| Yveltal BREAK | Rare BREAK | $7.64 | 1 in 105 (0.95%) | $3326.84 |
| Xerneas BREAK | Rare BREAK | $7.28 | 1 in 105 (0.95%) | $3326.84 |
| Pokemon Ranger (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $7.28 | 1 in 112 (0.9%) | $3536.25 |
| Hydreigon BREAK | Rare BREAK | $5.71 | 1 in 105 (0.95%) | $3326.84 |
| Gardevoir EX | Ultra Rare | $5.03 | 1 in 112 (0.9%) | $3536.25 |
| Talonflame BREAK | Rare BREAK | $4.60 | 1 in 105 (0.95%) | $3326.84 |
| Pyroar BREAK | Rare BREAK | $3.85 | 1 in 105 (0.95%) | $3326.84 |
| Clawitzer BREAK | Rare BREAK | $3.48 | 1 in 105 (0.95%) | $3326.84 |
| Yanmega BREAK | Rare BREAK | $2.85 | 1 in 105 (0.95%) | $3326.84 |
| Steelix EX | Ultra Rare | $2.77 | 1 in 112 (0.9%) | $3536.25 |
| Volcanion EX | Ultra Rare | $2.49 | 1 in 112 (0.9%) | $3536.25 |
| Magearna EX | Ultra Rare | $1.43 | 1 in 112 (0.9%) | $3536.25 |
| Azumarill | Uncommon | $12.88 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Nidoking | Rare | $4.37 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Volcarona | Rare | $3.56 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Chandelure | Holo Rare | $2.79 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $1305.00 |
| Galvantula | Rare | $2.51 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Special Charge | Uncommon | $2.30 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Chandelure | Holo Rare | $2.06 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $1305.00 |
| Azumarill | Uncommon | $1.94 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Ampharos | Holo Rare | $1.90 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $1305.00 |
| Xerneas | Holo Rare | $1.69 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $1305.00 |
| Infernape | Holo Rare | $1.58 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $1305.00 |
| Infernape | Holo Rare | $1.51 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $1305.00 |
| Marill | Common | $1.49 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Bisharp | Holo Rare | $1.46 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $1305.00 |
| Ampharos | Holo Rare | $1.40 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $1305.00 |
| Shiftry | Holo Rare | $1.31 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $1305.00 |
| Bisharp | Holo Rare | $1.22 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $1305.00 |
| Samurott | Rare | $1.15 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Foongus | Common | $0.95 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Anorith | Uncommon | $0.87 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Xerneas | Holo Rare | $0.87 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $1305.00 |
| Mareep | Common | $0.82 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Gastrodon | Rare | $0.81 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Nidoking | Rare | $0.79 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Klefki | Uncommon | $0.78 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Avalugg | Rare | $0.76 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Yveltal | Holo Rare | $0.73 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $1305.00 |
| Cobalion | Rare | $0.73 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Meowth | Common | $0.73 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Volcarona | Rare | $0.72 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Gardevoir Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.72 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Shiftry | Holo Rare | $0.70 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $1305.00 |
| Larvesta | Common | $0.70 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Rapidash | Uncommon | $0.70 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Oshawott | Common | $0.70 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Armaldo | Rare | $0.69 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Talonflame | Rare | $0.68 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Hoopa | Rare | $0.68 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Druddigon | Rare | $0.68 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Steelix Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.68 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Flaaffy | Uncommon | $0.67 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Bastiodon | Rare | $0.66 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Yveltal | Holo Rare | $0.64 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $1305.00 |
| Klinklang | Holo Rare | $0.64 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $1305.00 |
| Gastrodon | Rare | $0.63 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Weavile | Rare | $0.63 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Hawlucha | Uncommon | $0.63 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Primeape | Rare | $0.60 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Monferno | Uncommon | $0.59 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Pyroar | Rare | $0.59 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Nidorino | Uncommon | $0.58 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Spiritomb | Rare | $0.58 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Ponyta | Common | $0.57 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Shieldon | Uncommon | $0.57 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Persian | Uncommon | $0.57 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Volcanion | Rare | $0.56 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Klinklang | Holo Rare | $0.56 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $1305.00 |
| Toxicroak | Rare | $0.55 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Aipom | Common | $0.53 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Yanmega | Rare | $0.52 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Klang | Uncommon | $0.52 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Tangrowth | Uncommon | $0.51 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Dewott | Uncommon | $0.51 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Avalugg | Rare | $0.51 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Jumpluff | Rare | $0.50 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Chimchar | Common | $0.50 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Skiploom | Uncommon | $0.49 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Hoopa | Rare | $0.48 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Lampent | Uncommon | $0.46 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Bastiodon | Rare | $0.46 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Ambipom | Uncommon | $0.46 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Shellos | Common | $0.45 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Nidoran M | Common | $0.45 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Mantine | Common | $0.44 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Bergmite | Common | $0.44 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Litwick | Common | $0.44 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Hydreigon | Holo Rare | $0.44 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $1305.00 |
| Hoppip | Common | $0.43 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Amoonguss | Rare | $0.43 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Joltik | Common | $0.43 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Galvantula | Rare | $0.43 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Fletchinder | Uncommon | $0.43 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Pokemon Ranger | Uncommon | $0.43 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Nuzleaf | Uncommon | $0.42 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Hydreigon | Holo Rare | $0.42 | 1 in 45 (2.22%) | $1305.00 |
| Tangela | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Samurott | Rare | $0.41 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Clauncher | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Armaldo | Rare | $0.41 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Zweilous | Uncommon | $0.41 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Claw Fossil Anorith | Uncommon | $0.41 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Ninja Boy | Uncommon | $0.41 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Talonflame | Rare | $0.40 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Probopass | Rare | $0.40 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Braviary | Uncommon | $0.40 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Marill | Common | $0.39 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Armor Fossil Shieldon | Uncommon | $0.39 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Jumpluff | Rare | $0.38 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Weavile | Rare | $0.38 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Captivating Poke Puff | Uncommon | $0.37 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Nosepass | Common | $0.37 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Cobalion | Rare | $0.37 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Mankey | Common | $0.36 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Seedot | Common | $0.35 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Foongus | Common | $0.35 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Pawniard | Common | $0.35 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Special Charge | Uncommon | $0.35 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Volcanion | Rare | $0.33 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Clawitzer | Rare | $0.33 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Primeape | Rare | $0.33 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Rufflet | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Greedy Dice | Uncommon | $0.33 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Litleo | Common | $0.32 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Drifblim | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Croagunk | Common | $0.32 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Fletchling | Common | $0.32 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Drifloon | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Klink | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Klefki | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Meowth | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Oshawott | Common | $0.30 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Spiritomb | Rare | $0.30 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Druddigon | Rare | $0.30 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Clawitzer | Rare | $0.29 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Flaaffy | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Yanma | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Rapidash | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Monferno | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Deino | Common | $0.28 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Amoonguss | Rare | $0.27 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Mantine | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Joltik | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Nidoran M | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Probopass | Rare | $0.27 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Toxicroak | Rare | $0.27 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Sneasel | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Tangela | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Larvesta | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Pyroar | Rare | $0.26 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Nidorino | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Armor Fossil Shieldon | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Steelix Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Shellos | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Mankey | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Gardevoir Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Chimchar | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Mareep | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Drifblim | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Hawlucha | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Claw Fossil Anorith | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Shieldon | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Persian | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Aipom | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Captivating Poke Puff | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Hoppip | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Skiploom | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Ponyta | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Lampent | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Drifloon | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Litwick | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Anorith | Uncommon | $0.20 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Zweilous | Uncommon | $0.20 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Yanmega | Rare | $0.19 | 1 in 34 (2.9%) | $1000.45 |
| Dewott | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Ambipom | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Seedot | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Bergmite | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Sneasel | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Klink | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Fletchling | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Tangrowth | Uncommon | $0.16 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Yanma | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Nosepass | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Rufflet | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Braviary | Uncommon | $0.16 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Fletchinder | Uncommon | $0.16 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Litleo | Common | $0.15 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Klang | Uncommon | $0.15 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Nuzleaf | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Croagunk | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Deino | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Greedy Dice | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Ninja Boy | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Pokemon Ranger | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 10 (10%) | $290.00 |
| Clauncher | Common | $0.11 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |
| Pawniard | Common | $0.10 | 1 in 6 (16.13%) | $179.80 |