Sets / Shining Fates

Shining Fates

A $15.01 Shining Fates pack returns $3.60 in expected card value on average — 24% of what you paid.

No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers Shining Fates, so these odds come from reddit.com, which discloses a 1,087-pack sample. A stated count is the difference between a measured rate and a confident guess, so it is recorded here whenever a source gives one.

How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.

Products in this set

ProductPriceExpected valueExpected return
Shining Fates Mini Tin [Zarude]$30.01$7.2024%
Shining Fates Premium Collection [Shiny Crobat]$106.36$25.1924%
Shining Fates Mini Tin [Manaphy]$31.72$7.2023%
Shining Fates Elite Trainer Box$142.79$32.3923%
Shining Fates Premium Collection [Shiny Dragapult]$123.91$25.1920%
Shining Fates Booster Pack$18.02$3.6020%
Shining Fates Mini Tin [Celebi]$36.24$7.2020%
Shining Fates Mini Tin [Reshiram]$39.65$7.2018%
Shining Fates Mini Tin [Kyogre]$41.18$7.2017%
Shining Fates V Tin [Eldegoss V]$69.02$10.8016%
Shining Fates V Tin [Boltund V]$69.42$10.8016%
Shining Fates V Tin [Cramorant V]$71.44$10.8015%

Where to buy

Shining Fates Mini Tin [Zarude] · Shining Fates Premium Collection [Shiny Crobat] · Shining Fates Mini Tin [Manaphy] · Shining Fates Elite Trainer Box · Shining Fates Premium Collection [Shiny Dragapult] · Shining Fates Booster Pack · Shining Fates Mini Tin [Celebi] · Shining Fates Mini Tin [Reshiram] · Shining Fates Mini Tin [Kyogre] · Shining Fates V Tin [Eldegoss V] · Shining Fates V Tin [Boltund V] · Shining Fates V Tin [Cramorant V]

Expected return by product type

ProductPrice per packExpected return
Elite Trainer Box$15.8723%
Booster Pack$18.0220%

Pull rates (source: community_estimate)

RarityPull rateSample
Shiny Vault — SV Golden (replaces reverse holo)0.65%n=1087
Full Art Trainer2.44%n=1087
Shiny Vault — Shiny VMax (replaces reverse holo)2.56%n=1087
Amazing Rare5.26%n=1087
Shiny Vault — Shiny V (replaces reverse holo)7.14%n=1087
Holo Rare17.86%
Shiny Vault — SV Baby (replaces reverse holo)25%n=1087
Rare62.5%
Common500%
Uncommon300%

Cards & odds

CardRarityMarket priceOddsCost to pull
Charizard VMAXShiny Holo Rare$113.331 in 273 (0.37%)$4102.93
MorpekoShiny Holo Rare$23.181 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Ditto VMAXShiny Holo Rare$17.971 in 273 (0.37%)$4102.93
SuicuneShiny Holo Rare$17.441 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
YamperShiny Holo Rare$16.991 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Galarian PonytaShiny Holo Rare$16.501 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
MinccinoShiny Holo Rare$13.651 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Galarian RapidashShiny Holo Rare$13.361 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
CinccinoShiny Holo Rare$11.451 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
ApplinShiny Holo Rare$10.911 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Poke Kid (Full Art)Full Art Trainer$9.071 in 328 (0.31%)$4919.67
MilceryShiny Holo Rare$8.661 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
KoffingShiny Holo Rare$8.581 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Ditto VShiny Holo Rare$8.571 in 126 (0.79%)$1891.39
AppletunShiny Holo Rare$8.511 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Skyla (Full Art)Full Art Trainer$8.081 in 328 (0.31%)$4919.67
Lapras VMAXShiny Holo Rare$8.081 in 273 (0.37%)$4102.93
AlcremieShiny Holo Rare$7.831 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
DreepyShiny Holo Rare$7.311 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
ArctozoltShiny Holo Rare$7.131 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
CinderaceShiny Holo Rare$6.961 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Eternatus VShiny Holo Rare$6.751 in 310 (0.32%)$4652.71
Eternatus VMAXShiny Holo Rare$6.741 in 310 (0.32%)$4652.71
RotomShiny Holo Rare$6.651 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
DecidueyeShiny Holo Rare$6.381 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
ToxelShiny Holo Rare$6.021 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Alcremie V (Full Art)Ultra Rare$5.89TBDTBD
SnomShiny Holo Rare$5.881 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Galarian MeowthShiny Holo Rare$5.551 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
DedenneShiny Holo Rare$5.521 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
RabootShiny Holo Rare$5.431 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
SinisteaShiny Holo Rare$5.321 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
InteleonShiny Holo Rare$5.251 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
FlappleShiny Holo Rare$5.041 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Ditto VMAXUltra Rare$5.01TBDTBD
KyogreAmazing Rare$4.741 in 57 (1.75%)$855.80
DrizzileShiny Holo Rare$4.741 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Alcremie VMAX (Secret)Secret Rare$4.63TBDTBD
EiscueShiny Holo Rare$4.591 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
HattremShiny Holo Rare$4.591 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Galarian WeezingShiny Holo Rare$4.501 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
RowletShiny Holo Rare$4.361 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
WoolooShiny Holo Rare$4.241 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
DrakloakShiny Holo Rare$4.181 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Morpeko VMAXUltra Rare$4.07TBDTBD
Grimmsnarl VMAXShiny Holo Rare$4.071 in 273 (0.37%)$4102.93
FrosmothShiny Holo Rare$4.001 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
DucklettShiny Holo Rare$3.921 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Toxtricity VMAXShiny Holo Rare$3.921 in 273 (0.37%)$4102.93
DracovishShiny Holo Rare$3.911 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Lapras VShiny Holo Rare$3.901 in 126 (0.79%)$1891.39
HattereneShiny Holo Rare$3.781 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Ball Guy (Full Art)Full Art Trainer$3.771 in 328 (0.31%)$4919.67
Galarian ObstagoonShiny Holo Rare$3.731 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Galarian Farfetch'dShiny Holo Rare$3.561 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
HatennaShiny Holo Rare$3.541 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
BoltundShiny Holo Rare$3.441 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
DartrixShiny Holo Rare$3.381 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
CufantShiny Holo Rare$3.321 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
RookideeShiny Holo Rare$3.281 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
ScorbunnyShiny Holo Rare$3.161 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
RillaboomShiny Holo Rare$3.081 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Galarian PerrserkerShiny Holo Rare$3.081 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Galarian CorsolaShiny Holo Rare$3.051 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
GrimmsnarlShiny Holo Rare$3.041 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
DracozoltShiny Holo Rare$3.011 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Galarian RunerigusShiny Holo Rare$3.011 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Galarian LinooneShiny Holo Rare$2.951 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
DragapultShiny Holo Rare$2.871 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
NickitShiny Holo Rare$2.811 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
ThwackeyShiny Holo Rare$2.781 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
ReshiramAmazing Rare$2.771 in 57 (1.75%)$855.80
ImpidimpShiny Holo Rare$2.741 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
SizzlipedeShiny Holo Rare$2.731 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Galarian YamaskShiny Holo Rare$2.711 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
CorvisquireShiny Holo Rare$2.701 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
SkwovetShiny Holo Rare$2.681 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
ArctovishShiny Holo Rare$2.631 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
GossifleurShiny Holo Rare$2.571 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
IndeedeeShiny Holo Rare$2.561 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
MorgremShiny Holo Rare$2.561 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
ChewtleShiny Holo Rare$2.511 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
SwannaShiny Holo Rare$2.501 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
GrookeyShiny Holo Rare$2.471 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
ThievulShiny Holo Rare$2.441 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
ClobbopusShiny Holo Rare$2.391 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
SobbleShiny Holo Rare$2.381 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Galarian CursolaShiny Holo Rare$2.311 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
CentiskorchShiny Holo Rare$2.271 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Galarian Mr. MimeShiny Holo Rare$2.271 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
ToxtricityShiny Holo Rare$2.271 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Galarian DarumakaShiny Holo Rare$2.241 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
DuraludonShiny Holo Rare$2.211 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
OrbeetleShiny Holo Rare$2.171 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
GreedentShiny Holo Rare$2.131 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
PincurchinShiny Holo Rare$2.121 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Galarian ZigzagoonShiny Holo Rare$2.091 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Toxtricity VShiny Holo Rare$2.061 in 126 (0.79%)$1891.39
OranguruShiny Holo Rare$2.011 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
BlipbugShiny Holo Rare$1.991 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
GrapploctShiny Holo Rare$1.951 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Rillaboom VMAXShiny Holo Rare$1.951 in 273 (0.37%)$4102.93
DrednawShiny Holo Rare$1.931 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
YveltalAmazing Rare$1.881 in 57 (1.75%)$855.80
Bird Keeper (Full Art)Full Art Trainer$1.881 in 328 (0.31%)$4919.67
SilicobraShiny Holo Rare$1.881 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
ArrokudaShiny Holo Rare$1.871 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Centiskorch VMAXShiny Holo Rare$1.841 in 273 (0.37%)$4102.93
EldegossShiny Holo Rare$1.821 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Galarian DarmanitanShiny Holo Rare$1.771 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
BarraskewdaShiny Holo Rare$1.761 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
CarkolShiny Holo Rare$1.741 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
CopperajahShiny Holo Rare$1.741 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Piers (Full Art)Full Art Trainer$1.731 in 328 (0.31%)$4919.67
StonjournerShiny Holo Rare$1.701 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
RolycolyShiny Holo Rare$1.631 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
CoalossalShiny Holo Rare$1.621 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Galarian Sirfetch'dShiny Holo Rare$1.611 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Grimmsnarl VShiny Holo Rare$1.541 in 126 (0.79%)$1891.39
DottlerShiny Holo Rare$1.481 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Galarian StunfiskShiny Holo Rare$1.481 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Galarian Mr. RimeShiny Holo Rare$1.471 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
SandacondaShiny Holo Rare$1.461 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
DubwoolShiny Holo Rare$1.441 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Centiskorch VShiny Holo Rare$1.441 in 126 (0.79%)$1891.39
Crobat VMAXUltra Rare$1.42TBDTBD
Ditto VUltra Rare$1.40TBDTBD
CorviknightShiny Holo Rare$1.401 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
PolteageistShiny Holo Rare$1.381 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Cinderace VMAXUltra Rare$1.33TBDTBD
Rillaboom VShiny Holo Rare$1.321 in 126 (0.79%)$1891.39
Dhelmise VMAXUltra Rare$1.30TBDTBD
Falinks VShiny Holo Rare$1.301 in 126 (0.79%)$1891.39
BunnelbyShiny Holo Rare$1.291 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
FalinksShiny Holo Rare$1.261 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
CramorantShiny Holo Rare$1.231 in 416 (0.24%)$6242.08
Indeedee VShiny Holo Rare$1.231 in 126 (0.79%)$1891.39
Gym Trainer (Full Art)Full Art Trainer$1.211 in 328 (0.31%)$4919.67
Dubwool VShiny Holo Rare$1.181 in 126 (0.79%)$1891.39
Cramorant VMAXUltra Rare$1.15TBDTBD
Cara Liss (Full Art)Full Art Trainer$1.121 in 328 (0.31%)$4919.67
Morpeko VUltra Rare$1.06TBDTBD
Rose (Full Art)Full Art Trainer$0.831 in 328 (0.31%)$4919.67
Cinderace VUltra Rare$0.82TBDTBD
Greedent VUltra Rare$0.72TBDTBD
Dhelmise VUltra Rare$0.68TBDTBD
Crobat VUltra Rare$0.67TBDTBD
Cramorant VUltra Rare$0.60TBDTBD
Indeedee VUltra Rare$0.57TBDTBD
EeveeCommon$0.691 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
CelebiRare$0.591 in 13 (7.81%)$181.25
Morpeko (035)Common$0.491 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
Morpeko (036)Common$0.431 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
Boss's Orders [Lysandre]Rare$0.421 in 13 (7.81%)$181.25
IndeedeeHolo Rare$0.391 in 39 (2.55%)$554.98
LuxrayHolo Rare$0.381 in 39 (2.55%)$554.98
LuxrayHolo Rare$0.371 in 39 (2.55%)$554.98
ManaphyRare$0.351 in 13 (7.81%)$181.25
Galarian WeezingHolo Rare$0.351 in 39 (2.55%)$554.98
SnomCommon$0.331 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
IndeedeeHolo Rare$0.331 in 39 (2.55%)$554.98
FrosmothHolo Rare$0.321 in 39 (2.55%)$554.98
ThievulHolo Rare$0.321 in 39 (2.55%)$554.98
DecidueyeHolo Rare$0.311 in 39 (2.55%)$554.98
DecidueyeHolo Rare$0.311 in 39 (2.55%)$554.98
KoffingCommon$0.311 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
EeveeCommon$0.311 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
Rusted SwordUncommon$0.311 in 4 (23.08%)$61.36
Boss's Orders [Lysandre]Rare$0.311 in 13 (7.81%)$181.25
RowletCommon$0.301 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
HorseaCommon$0.301 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
FrosmothHolo Rare$0.301 in 39 (2.55%)$554.98
Galarian WeezingHolo Rare$0.291 in 39 (2.55%)$554.98
Ball GuyUncommon$0.291 in 4 (23.08%)$61.36
CelebiRare$0.281 in 13 (7.81%)$181.25
ThwackeyUncommon$0.281 in 4 (23.08%)$61.36
LuxioUncommon$0.281 in 4 (23.08%)$61.36
SpinarakCommon$0.281 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
YanmegaRare$0.271 in 13 (7.81%)$181.25
RillaboomHolo Rare$0.271 in 39 (2.55%)$554.98
ChewtleCommon$0.271 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
RillaboomHolo Rare$0.261 in 39 (2.55%)$554.98
ZarudeRare$0.261 in 13 (7.81%)$181.25
VolcanionRare$0.261 in 13 (7.81%)$181.25
TrapinchCommon$0.261 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
ZarudeRare$0.251 in 13 (7.81%)$181.25
BuizelCommon$0.251 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
ShinxCommon$0.251 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
Morpeko (035)Common$0.251 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
Professor's Research [Professor Juniper]Rare$0.251 in 13 (7.81%)$181.25
GrookeyCommon$0.241 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
DrednawRare$0.241 in 13 (7.81%)$181.25
CacneaCommon$0.231 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
ManaphyRare$0.231 in 13 (7.81%)$181.25
Gym TrainerUncommon$0.231 in 4 (23.08%)$61.36
Rusted ShieldUncommon$0.231 in 4 (23.08%)$61.36
YanmaCommon$0.221 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
DartrixUncommon$0.221 in 4 (23.08%)$61.36
FloatzelUncommon$0.221 in 4 (23.08%)$61.36
SnomCommon$0.221 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
CramorantUncommon$0.211 in 4 (23.08%)$61.36
Morpeko (036)Common$0.211 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
KoffingCommon$0.211 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
ThievulHolo Rare$0.211 in 39 (2.55%)$554.98
GossifleurCommon$0.201 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
RotomUncommon$0.201 in 4 (23.08%)$61.36
EldegossUncommon$0.191 in 4 (23.08%)$61.36
CufantCommon$0.191 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
Team Yell TowelUncommon$0.171 in 4 (23.08%)$61.36
ThwackeyUncommon$0.161 in 4 (23.08%)$61.36
FloatzelUncommon$0.161 in 4 (23.08%)$61.36
Ball GuyUncommon$0.161 in 4 (23.08%)$61.36
TropiusUncommon$0.151 in 4 (23.08%)$61.36
RowletCommon$0.151 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
HorseaCommon$0.151 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
CramorantUncommon$0.151 in 4 (23.08%)$61.36
RotomUncommon$0.151 in 4 (23.08%)$61.36
TrapinchCommon$0.151 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
NickitCommon$0.151 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
Professor's Research [Professor Juniper]Rare$0.151 in 13 (7.81%)$181.25
YanmegaRare$0.141 in 13 (7.81%)$181.25
LuxioUncommon$0.141 in 4 (23.08%)$61.36
GrookeyCommon$0.131 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
DrednawRare$0.131 in 13 (7.81%)$181.25
GossifleurCommon$0.121 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
NickitCommon$0.121 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
TropiusUncommon$0.111 in 4 (23.08%)$61.36
BuizelCommon$0.111 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
ChewtleCommon$0.111 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
DartrixUncommon$0.101 in 4 (23.08%)$61.36
EldegossUncommon$0.101 in 4 (23.08%)$61.36
ShinxCommon$0.101 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
Rusted SwordUncommon$0.101 in 4 (23.08%)$61.36
CacneaCommon$0.091 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
SpinarakCommon$0.091 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
CufantCommon$0.091 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
Rusted ShieldUncommon$0.091 in 4 (23.08%)$61.36
VolcanionRare$0.081 in 13 (7.81%)$181.25
Gym TrainerUncommon$0.081 in 4 (23.08%)$61.36
YanmaCommon$0.061 in 4 (27.78%)$50.98
Team Yell TowelUncommon$0.051 in 4 (23.08%)$61.36