A $67.66 XY - Evolutions pack returns $17.06 in expected card value on average — 25% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers XY - Evolutions, so these odds come from elitefourum.com, which discloses a 12,168-pack sample. Sources that do not state how many packs they counted are not used here, however confident they sound.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Beedrill EX Premium Collection | $405.96 | $102.38 | 25% |
| Evolutions Booster Pack | $70.07 | $17.06 | 24% |
| XY Evolutions Booster Box | $2579.99 | $614.30 | 24% |
| XY Evolutions Elite Trainer Box [Mega Blastoise] | $649.47 | $153.58 | 24% |
| XY Evolutions Single Pack Blister [Weezing] | $94.78 | $17.06 | 18% |
| XY Evolutions Elite Trainer Box [Mega Charizard Y] | $864.53 | $153.58 | 18% |
| XY - Evolutions Sleeved Booster Pack | $103.29 | $17.06 | 17% |
| XY Evolutions Single Pack Blister [Greninja] | — | $17.06 | TBD |
| XY - Evolutions 3 Pack Blister [Braixen] | — | $51.19 | TBD |
| XY - Evolutions 3 Pack Blister [Black Kyurem] | — | $51.19 | TBD |
| Mega Salamence EX Premium Collection | — | $136.51 | TBD |
| Mega Garchomp EX Premium Collection | — | $136.51 | TBD |
Mega Beedrill EX Premium Collection · Evolutions Booster Pack · XY Evolutions Booster Box · XY Evolutions Elite Trainer Box [Mega Blastoise] · XY Evolutions Single Pack Blister [Weezing] · XY Evolutions Elite Trainer Box [Mega Charizard Y] · XY - Evolutions Sleeved Booster Pack · XY Evolutions Single Pack Blister [Greninja] · XY - Evolutions 3 Pack Blister [Braixen] · XY - Evolutions 3 Pack Blister [Black Kyurem] · Mega Salamence EX Premium Collection · Mega Garchomp EX Premium Collection
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $70.07 | 24% |
| Booster Box | $71.67 | 24% |
| Elite Trainer Box | $72.16 | 24% |
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Rare BREAK | 5.56% | n=12168 |
| Secret Rare | 12.5% | n=12168 |
| Holo Rare | 14.44% | |
| Ultra Rare | 18.89% | n=12168 |
| Rare | 66.67% | |
| Common | 460% | |
| Uncommon | 290% |
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M Charizard EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $127.05 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| M Blastoise EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $70.29 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| Dragonite EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $48.89 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| Mewtwo EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $46.82 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| M Charizard EX | Ultra Rare | $39.57 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| M Venusaur EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $37.75 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| Misty's Determination (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $37.35 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| M Blastoise EX | Ultra Rare | $22.02 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| Charizard EX | Ultra Rare | $15.91 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| M Pidgeot EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $14.44 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| M Venusaur EX | Ultra Rare | $12.76 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| Surfing Pikachu | Secret Rare | $10.48 | 1 in 40 (2.5%) | $2706.40 |
| Flying Pikachu | Secret Rare | $10.32 | 1 in 40 (2.5%) | $2706.40 |
| Dragonite EX | Ultra Rare | $9.76 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| M Slowbro EX | Ultra Rare | $9.52 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| Pidgeot EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $9.35 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| Mewtwo EX | Ultra Rare | $9.25 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| Brock's Grit (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $9.22 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| Blastoise EX | Ultra Rare | $7.03 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| Venusaur EX | Ultra Rare | $4.99 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| M Pidgeot EX | Ultra Rare | $4.79 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| Exeggutor | Secret Rare | $4.60 | 1 in 40 (2.5%) | $2706.40 |
| Imakuni?'s Doduo | Secret Rare | $4.36 | 1 in 40 (2.5%) | $2706.40 |
| Ninetales BREAK | Rare BREAK | $4.22 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $4867.63 |
| Machamp BREAK | Rare BREAK | $3.66 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $4867.63 |
| Nidoking BREAK | Rare BREAK | $3.42 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $4867.63 |
| Slowbro EX | Ultra Rare | $3.06 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| Starmie BREAK | Rare BREAK | $2.28 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $4867.63 |
| Pidgeot EX | Ultra Rare | $1.62 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| Here Comes Team Rocket! | Secret Rare | $1.16 | 1 in 40 (2.5%) | $2706.40 |
| Charizard | Holo Rare | $102.04 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Charizard | Holo Rare | $99.20 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Mew | Holo Rare | $32.46 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Mew | Holo Rare | $28.19 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Mewtwo | Rare | $10.97 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Darkness Energy | Common | $9.86 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Gyarados | Holo Rare | $9.19 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Raichu | Holo Rare | $8.61 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Raichu | Holo Rare | $8.35 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Gyarados | Holo Rare | $8.30 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Charizard Spirit Link | Uncommon | $8.11 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Zapdos | Holo Rare | $6.69 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Fairy Energy | Common | $6.57 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Zapdos | Holo Rare | $6.20 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Clefairy | Holo Rare | $6.04 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Pikachu | Common | $5.82 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Ninetales | Holo Rare | $5.77 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Ninetales | Holo Rare | $5.71 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Machamp | Holo Rare | $5.64 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Nidoking | Holo Rare | $4.74 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Nidoking | Holo Rare | $4.60 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Clefairy | Holo Rare | $4.59 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Machamp | Holo Rare | $4.42 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Poliwrath | Holo Rare | $4.34 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Arcanine | Rare | $3.94 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Psychic Energy | Common | $3.78 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Poliwrath | Holo Rare | $3.60 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Metal Energy | Common | $3.48 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Fire Energy | Common | $3.18 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Grass Energy | Common | $3.12 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Chansey | Holo Rare | $3.03 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Mewtwo | Rare | $2.94 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Dewgong | Rare | $2.90 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Water Energy | Common | $2.84 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Chansey | Holo Rare | $2.80 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Fighting Energy | Common | $2.59 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Hitmonchan | Holo Rare | $2.41 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Magneton | Holo Rare | $2.28 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Hitmonchan | Holo Rare | $2.27 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Blastoise Spirit Link | Uncommon | $2.21 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Lightning Energy | Common | $2.19 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Magneton | Holo Rare | $2.15 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Charmander | Common | $1.87 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Double Colorless Energy | Uncommon | $1.64 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Darkness Energy | Common | $1.50 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Venusaur Spirit Link | Uncommon | $1.38 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Starmie | Rare | $1.36 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Beedrill | Rare | $1.33 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Revive | Uncommon | $1.33 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Magikarp | Common | $1.28 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Farfetch'd | Rare | $1.19 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Energy Retrieval | Uncommon | $1.07 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Pikachu | Common | $1.06 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Haunter | Uncommon | $1.03 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Electrode | Rare | $1.02 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Slowbro Spirit Link | Uncommon | $1.00 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Charmeleon | Uncommon | $0.98 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Pokedex | Uncommon | $0.96 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Dugtrio | Rare | $0.89 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Super Potion | Uncommon | $0.80 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Raticate | Rare | $0.79 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Vulpix | Common | $0.77 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Gastly | Common | $0.76 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Metal Energy | Common | $0.76 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Maintenance | Uncommon | $0.74 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Growlithe | Common | $0.67 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Pidgeot Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.63 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Fairy Energy | Common | $0.60 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Porygon | Uncommon | $0.59 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Devolution Spray | Uncommon | $0.59 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Full Heal | Uncommon | $0.58 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Misty's Determination | Uncommon | $0.56 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Poliwhirl | Uncommon | $0.55 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Electabuzz | Common | $0.55 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Koffing | Uncommon | $0.54 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Poliwag | Common | $0.51 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Tangela | Common | $0.50 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Staryu | Common | $0.50 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Onix | Common | $0.49 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Machop | Common | $0.47 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Charizard Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.46 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Switch | Uncommon | $0.46 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Magmar | Uncommon | $0.45 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Nidoran M | Common | $0.45 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Diglett | Common | $0.45 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Potion | Uncommon | $0.45 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Caterpie | Common | $0.43 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Ponyta | Common | $0.43 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Electrode | Rare | $0.43 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Drowzee | Common | $0.43 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Machoke | Uncommon | $0.43 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Seel | Common | $0.42 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Nidorino | Uncommon | $0.42 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Weedle | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Voltorb | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Metapod | Uncommon | $0.40 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Magnemite | Common | $0.40 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Sandshrew | Common | $0.40 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Farfetch'd | Rare | $0.39 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Kakuna | Uncommon | $0.38 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Rattata | Common | $0.38 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Brock's Grit | Uncommon | $0.37 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Professor Oak's Hint | Uncommon | $0.37 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Charmander | Common | $0.35 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Double Colorless Energy | Uncommon | $0.35 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Charmeleon | Uncommon | $0.33 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Doduo | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Arcanine | Rare | $0.32 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Magikarp | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Haunter | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Misty's Determination | Uncommon | $0.31 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Starmie | Rare | $0.30 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Fire Energy | Common | $0.29 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Slowbro Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.28 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Psychic Energy | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Growlithe | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Poliwhirl | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Water Energy | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Fighting Energy | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Beedrill | Rare | $0.25 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Electabuzz | Common | $0.24 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Porygon | Uncommon | $0.24 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Weedle | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Nidorino | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Gastly | Common | $0.23 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Venusaur Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Metapod | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Vulpix | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Dewgong | Rare | $0.22 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Nidoran M | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Blastoise Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Energy Retrieval | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Poliwag | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Switch | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Lightning Energy | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Tangela | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Voltorb | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Drowzee | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Koffing | Uncommon | $0.20 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Brock's Grit | Uncommon | $0.20 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Caterpie | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Machoke | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Onix | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Super Potion | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Grass Energy | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Sandshrew | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Machop | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Full Heal | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Raticate | Rare | $0.17 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Revive | Uncommon | $0.17 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Magmar | Uncommon | $0.16 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Doduo | Common | $0.16 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Seel | Common | $0.15 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Staryu | Common | $0.14 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Devolution Spray | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Pokedex | Uncommon | $0.14 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Maintenance | Uncommon | $0.13 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Ponyta | Common | $0.12 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Magnemite | Common | $0.12 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Dugtrio | Rare | $0.12 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Pidgeot Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.10 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Diglett | Common | $0.09 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Rattata | Common | $0.08 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Kakuna | Uncommon | $0.06 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Potion | Uncommon | $0.06 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Professor Oak's Hint | Uncommon | $0.05 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |