XY - Evolutions
A $67.66 XY - Evolutions pack returns $17.40 in expected card value on average — 26% of what you paid.
No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers XY - Evolutions, so these odds come from elitefourum.com, which discloses a 12,168-pack sample. A stated count is the difference between a measured rate and a confident guess, so it is recorded here whenever a source gives one.
How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.
- Pack EV: $17.40
- Cheapest pack: $67.66 (Mega Beedrill EX Premium Collection)
- Cards: 113 (196 versions)
Products in this set
| Product | Price | Expected value | Expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mega Beedrill EX Premium Collection | $405.96 | $104.39 | 26% |
| Evolutions Booster Pack | $70.89 | $17.40 | 25% |
| XY Evolutions Booster Box | $2747.49 | $626.32 | 23% |
| XY Evolutions Elite Trainer Box [Mega Blastoise] | $802.28 | $156.58 | 20% |
| XY Evolutions Single Pack Blister [Weezing] | $94.83 | $17.40 | 18% |
| XY Evolutions Elite Trainer Box [Mega Charizard Y] | $871.65 | $156.58 | 18% |
| XY - Evolutions Sleeved Booster Pack | $103.25 | $17.40 | 17% |
| Mega Salamence EX Premium Collection | — | $139.18 | TBD |
| Mega Garchomp EX Premium Collection | — | $139.18 | TBD |
| XY Evolutions Single Pack Blister [Greninja] | — | $17.40 | TBD |
| XY - Evolutions 3 Pack Blister [Braixen] | — | $52.19 | TBD |
| XY - Evolutions 3 Pack Blister [Black Kyurem] | — | $52.19 | TBD |
Where to buy
Mega Beedrill EX Premium Collection · Evolutions Booster Pack · XY Evolutions Booster Box · XY Evolutions Elite Trainer Box [Mega Blastoise] · XY Evolutions Single Pack Blister [Weezing] · XY Evolutions Elite Trainer Box [Mega Charizard Y] · XY - Evolutions Sleeved Booster Pack · Mega Salamence EX Premium Collection · Mega Garchomp EX Premium Collection · XY Evolutions Single Pack Blister [Greninja] · XY - Evolutions 3 Pack Blister [Braixen] · XY - Evolutions 3 Pack Blister [Black Kyurem]
Expected return by product type
| Product | Price per pack | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Booster Pack | $70.89 | 25% |
| Booster Box | $76.32 | 23% |
| Elite Trainer Box | $89.14 | 20% |
Pull rates (source: community_estimate)
| Rarity | Pull rate | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| Rare BREAK | 5.56% | n=12168 |
| Secret Rare | 12.5% | n=12168 |
| Holo Rare | 14.44% | |
| Ultra Rare | 18.89% | n=12168 |
| Rare | 66.67% | |
| Common | 460% | |
| Uncommon | 290% |
Cards & odds
| Card | Rarity | Market price | Odds | Cost to pull |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M Charizard EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $119.42 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| M Blastoise EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $65.72 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| Dragonite EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $63.26 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| Mewtwo EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $48.14 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| M Charizard EX | Ultra Rare | $40.97 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| M Venusaur EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $34.34 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| Misty's Determination (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $28.67 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| M Blastoise EX | Ultra Rare | $19.98 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| Charizard EX | Ultra Rare | $17.77 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| Mewtwo EX | Ultra Rare | $17.01 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| M Pidgeot EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $15.59 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| Dragonite EX | Ultra Rare | $11.55 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| M Venusaur EX | Ultra Rare | $11.35 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| M Slowbro EX | Ultra Rare | $10.10 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| Surfing Pikachu | Secret Rare | $9.66 | 1 in 40 (2.5%) | $2706.40 |
| Flying Pikachu | Secret Rare | $9.04 | 1 in 40 (2.5%) | $2706.40 |
| Pidgeot EX (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $8.75 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| Brock's Grit (Full Art) | Ultra Rare | $8.06 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| Blastoise EX | Ultra Rare | $7.49 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| Venusaur EX | Ultra Rare | $5.79 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| Ninetales BREAK | Rare BREAK | $5.67 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $4867.63 |
| Machamp BREAK | Rare BREAK | $5.27 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $4867.63 |
| Imakuni?'s Doduo | Secret Rare | $4.79 | 1 in 40 (2.5%) | $2706.40 |
| Nidoking BREAK | Rare BREAK | $4.37 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $4867.63 |
| M Pidgeot EX | Ultra Rare | $4.31 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| Slowbro EX | Ultra Rare | $3.82 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| Exeggutor | Secret Rare | $3.61 | 1 in 40 (2.5%) | $2706.40 |
| Starmie BREAK | Rare BREAK | $2.51 | 1 in 72 (1.39%) | $4867.63 |
| Pidgeot EX | Ultra Rare | $1.49 | 1 in 111 (0.9%) | $7521.76 |
| Here Comes Team Rocket! | Secret Rare | $0.97 | 1 in 40 (2.5%) | $2706.40 |
| Charizard | Holo Rare | $97.46 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Charizard | Holo Rare | $94.90 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Mew | Holo Rare | $35.02 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Mew | Holo Rare | $27.79 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Mewtwo | Rare | $16.77 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Gyarados | Holo Rare | $10.58 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Darkness Energy | Common | $9.56 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Gyarados | Holo Rare | $8.96 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Charizard Spirit Link | Uncommon | $8.28 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Raichu | Holo Rare | $8.05 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Raichu | Holo Rare | $7.87 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Pikachu | Common | $7.73 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Zapdos | Holo Rare | $7.49 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Ninetales | Holo Rare | $6.36 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Clefairy | Holo Rare | $6.35 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Fairy Energy | Common | $6.28 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Zapdos | Holo Rare | $5.73 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Ninetales | Holo Rare | $5.46 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Machamp | Holo Rare | $5.30 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Nidoking | Holo Rare | $5.13 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Machamp | Holo Rare | $5.08 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Arcanine | Rare | $4.73 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Nidoking | Holo Rare | $4.65 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Poliwrath | Holo Rare | $4.53 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Clefairy | Holo Rare | $4.50 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Chansey | Holo Rare | $4.09 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Mewtwo | Rare | $3.87 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Poliwrath | Holo Rare | $3.84 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Chansey | Holo Rare | $3.51 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Psychic Energy | Common | $3.49 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Metal Energy | Common | $3.48 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Fire Energy | Common | $3.37 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Magneton | Holo Rare | $2.86 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Water Energy | Common | $2.69 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Grass Energy | Common | $2.68 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Hitmonchan | Holo Rare | $2.58 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Magikarp | Common | $2.56 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Fighting Energy | Common | $2.52 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Charmander | Common | $2.46 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Hitmonchan | Holo Rare | $2.42 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Lightning Energy | Common | $2.37 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Blastoise Spirit Link | Uncommon | $2.36 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Magneton | Holo Rare | $2.29 | 1 in 90 (1.11%) | $6014.45 |
| Beedrill | Rare | $1.73 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Double Colorless Energy | Uncommon | $1.70 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Venusaur Spirit Link | Uncommon | $1.66 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Darkness Energy | Common | $1.49 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Farfetch'd | Rare | $1.47 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Charmeleon | Uncommon | $1.39 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Starmie | Rare | $1.39 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Haunter | Uncommon | $1.36 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Dewgong | Rare | $1.27 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Slowbro Spirit Link | Uncommon | $1.27 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Energy Retrieval | Uncommon | $1.12 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Pikachu | Common | $1.09 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Growlithe | Common | $1.06 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Gastly | Common | $1.04 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Electrode | Rare | $1.00 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Raticate | Rare | $0.98 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Pidgeot Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.93 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Revive | Uncommon | $0.92 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Dugtrio | Rare | $0.87 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Devolution Spray | Uncommon | $0.83 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Pokedex | Uncommon | $0.81 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Maintenance | Uncommon | $0.72 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Metal Energy | Common | $0.68 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Vulpix | Common | $0.66 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Porygon | Uncommon | $0.65 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Super Potion | Uncommon | $0.61 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Magmar | Uncommon | $0.59 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Electabuzz | Common | $0.59 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Koffing | Uncommon | $0.59 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Poliwhirl | Uncommon | $0.57 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Nidoran M | Common | $0.57 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Drowzee | Common | $0.56 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Full Heal | Uncommon | $0.56 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Onix | Common | $0.55 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Potion | Uncommon | $0.55 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Charizard Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.54 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Ponyta | Common | $0.53 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Misty's Determination | Uncommon | $0.53 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Poliwag | Common | $0.52 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Nidorino | Uncommon | $0.52 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Machoke | Uncommon | $0.51 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Tangela | Common | $0.50 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Machop | Common | $0.50 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Fairy Energy | Common | $0.49 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Sandshrew | Common | $0.47 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Diglett | Common | $0.46 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Caterpie | Common | $0.45 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Seel | Common | $0.45 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Switch | Uncommon | $0.45 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Metapod | Uncommon | $0.44 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Arcanine | Rare | $0.44 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Magnemite | Common | $0.44 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Voltorb | Common | $0.44 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Doduo | Common | $0.44 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Staryu | Common | $0.43 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Kakuna | Uncommon | $0.42 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Rattata | Common | $0.41 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Weedle | Common | $0.39 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Double Colorless Energy | Uncommon | $0.38 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Brock's Grit | Uncommon | $0.37 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Beedrill | Rare | $0.36 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Electabuzz | Common | $0.34 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Fire Energy | Common | $0.33 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Charmander | Common | $0.32 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Electrode | Rare | $0.32 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Misty's Determination | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Professor Oak's Hint | Uncommon | $0.32 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Magikarp | Common | $0.31 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Vulpix | Common | $0.30 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Poliwhirl | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Porygon | Uncommon | $0.30 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Psychic Energy | Common | $0.30 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Haunter | Uncommon | $0.29 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Farfetch'd | Rare | $0.28 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Charmeleon | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Venusaur Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.27 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Fighting Energy | Common | $0.27 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Growlithe | Common | $0.26 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Machoke | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Slowbro Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.26 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Metapod | Uncommon | $0.25 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Gastly | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Water Energy | Common | $0.25 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Dewgong | Rare | $0.24 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Starmie | Rare | $0.23 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Dugtrio | Rare | $0.23 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Blastoise Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Pidgeot Spirit Link | Uncommon | $0.23 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Drowzee | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Diglett | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Raticate | Rare | $0.22 | 1 in 13 (7.41%) | $901.84 |
| Energy Retrieval | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Revive | Uncommon | $0.22 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Lightning Energy | Common | $0.22 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Caterpie | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Poliwag | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Nidorino | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Koffing | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Full Heal | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Super Potion | Uncommon | $0.21 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Grass Energy | Common | $0.21 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Tangela | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Ponyta | Common | $0.20 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Brock's Grit | Uncommon | $0.20 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Voltorb | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Nidoran M | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Sandshrew | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Onix | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Doduo | Common | $0.19 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Devolution Spray | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Maintenance | Uncommon | $0.19 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Kakuna | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Seel | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Staryu | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Magnemite | Common | $0.18 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Pokedex | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Switch | Uncommon | $0.18 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Weedle | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Magmar | Uncommon | $0.17 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Machop | Common | $0.17 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Potion | Uncommon | $0.15 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |
| Rattata | Common | $0.13 | 1 in 7 (13.94%) | $479.27 |
| Professor Oak's Hint | Uncommon | $0.12 | 1 in 10 (10.36%) | $645.03 |