Sets / XY - Evolutions

XY - Evolutions

A $67.66 XY - Evolutions pack returns $17.06 in expected card value on average — 25% of what you paid.

No official TCGPlayer pull-rate article covers XY - Evolutions, so these odds come from elitefourum.com, which discloses a 12,168-pack sample. Sources that do not state how many packs they counted are not used here, however confident they sound.

How these figures are calculated, including the sourcing bar and what this model deliberately does not do.

Products in this set

ProductPriceExpected valueExpected return
Mega Beedrill EX Premium Collection$405.96$102.3825%
Evolutions Booster Pack$70.07$17.0624%
XY Evolutions Booster Box$2579.99$614.3024%
XY Evolutions Elite Trainer Box [Mega Blastoise]$649.47$153.5824%
XY Evolutions Single Pack Blister [Weezing]$94.78$17.0618%
XY Evolutions Elite Trainer Box [Mega Charizard Y]$864.53$153.5818%
XY - Evolutions Sleeved Booster Pack$103.29$17.0617%
XY Evolutions Single Pack Blister [Greninja]—$17.06TBD
XY - Evolutions 3 Pack Blister [Braixen]—$51.19TBD
XY - Evolutions 3 Pack Blister [Black Kyurem]—$51.19TBD
Mega Salamence EX Premium Collection—$136.51TBD
Mega Garchomp EX Premium Collection—$136.51TBD

Where to buy

Mega Beedrill EX Premium Collection · Evolutions Booster Pack · XY Evolutions Booster Box · XY Evolutions Elite Trainer Box [Mega Blastoise] · XY Evolutions Single Pack Blister [Weezing] · XY Evolutions Elite Trainer Box [Mega Charizard Y] · XY - Evolutions Sleeved Booster Pack · XY Evolutions Single Pack Blister [Greninja] · XY - Evolutions 3 Pack Blister [Braixen] · XY - Evolutions 3 Pack Blister [Black Kyurem] · Mega Salamence EX Premium Collection · Mega Garchomp EX Premium Collection

Expected return by product type

ProductPrice per packExpected return
Booster Pack$70.0724%
Booster Box$71.6724%
Elite Trainer Box$72.1624%

Pull rates (source: community_estimate)

RarityPull rateSample
Rare BREAK5.56%n=12168
Secret Rare12.5%n=12168
Holo Rare14.44%
Ultra Rare18.89%n=12168
Rare66.67%
Common460%
Uncommon290%

Cards & odds

CardRarityMarket priceOddsCost to pull
M Charizard EX (Full Art)Ultra Rare$127.051 in 111 (0.9%)$7521.76
M Blastoise EX (Full Art)Ultra Rare$70.291 in 111 (0.9%)$7521.76
Dragonite EX (Full Art)Ultra Rare$48.891 in 111 (0.9%)$7521.76
Mewtwo EX (Full Art)Ultra Rare$46.821 in 111 (0.9%)$7521.76
M Charizard EXUltra Rare$39.571 in 111 (0.9%)$7521.76
M Venusaur EX (Full Art)Ultra Rare$37.751 in 111 (0.9%)$7521.76
Misty's Determination (Full Art)Ultra Rare$37.351 in 111 (0.9%)$7521.76
M Blastoise EXUltra Rare$22.021 in 111 (0.9%)$7521.76
Charizard EXUltra Rare$15.911 in 111 (0.9%)$7521.76
M Pidgeot EX (Full Art)Ultra Rare$14.441 in 111 (0.9%)$7521.76
M Venusaur EXUltra Rare$12.761 in 111 (0.9%)$7521.76
Surfing PikachuSecret Rare$10.481 in 40 (2.5%)$2706.40
Flying PikachuSecret Rare$10.321 in 40 (2.5%)$2706.40
Dragonite EXUltra Rare$9.761 in 111 (0.9%)$7521.76
M Slowbro EXUltra Rare$9.521 in 111 (0.9%)$7521.76
Pidgeot EX (Full Art)Ultra Rare$9.351 in 111 (0.9%)$7521.76
Mewtwo EXUltra Rare$9.251 in 111 (0.9%)$7521.76
Brock's Grit (Full Art)Ultra Rare$9.221 in 111 (0.9%)$7521.76
Blastoise EXUltra Rare$7.031 in 111 (0.9%)$7521.76
Venusaur EXUltra Rare$4.991 in 111 (0.9%)$7521.76
M Pidgeot EXUltra Rare$4.791 in 111 (0.9%)$7521.76
ExeggutorSecret Rare$4.601 in 40 (2.5%)$2706.40
Imakuni?'s DoduoSecret Rare$4.361 in 40 (2.5%)$2706.40
Ninetales BREAKRare BREAK$4.221 in 72 (1.39%)$4867.63
Machamp BREAKRare BREAK$3.661 in 72 (1.39%)$4867.63
Nidoking BREAKRare BREAK$3.421 in 72 (1.39%)$4867.63
Slowbro EXUltra Rare$3.061 in 111 (0.9%)$7521.76
Starmie BREAKRare BREAK$2.281 in 72 (1.39%)$4867.63
Pidgeot EXUltra Rare$1.621 in 111 (0.9%)$7521.76
Here Comes Team Rocket!Secret Rare$1.161 in 40 (2.5%)$2706.40
CharizardHolo Rare$102.041 in 90 (1.11%)$6014.45
CharizardHolo Rare$99.201 in 90 (1.11%)$6014.45
MewHolo Rare$32.461 in 90 (1.11%)$6014.45
MewHolo Rare$28.191 in 90 (1.11%)$6014.45
MewtwoRare$10.971 in 13 (7.41%)$901.84
Darkness EnergyCommon$9.861 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
GyaradosHolo Rare$9.191 in 90 (1.11%)$6014.45
RaichuHolo Rare$8.611 in 90 (1.11%)$6014.45
RaichuHolo Rare$8.351 in 90 (1.11%)$6014.45
GyaradosHolo Rare$8.301 in 90 (1.11%)$6014.45
Charizard Spirit LinkUncommon$8.111 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
ZapdosHolo Rare$6.691 in 90 (1.11%)$6014.45
Fairy EnergyCommon$6.571 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
ZapdosHolo Rare$6.201 in 90 (1.11%)$6014.45
ClefairyHolo Rare$6.041 in 90 (1.11%)$6014.45
PikachuCommon$5.821 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
NinetalesHolo Rare$5.771 in 90 (1.11%)$6014.45
NinetalesHolo Rare$5.711 in 90 (1.11%)$6014.45
MachampHolo Rare$5.641 in 90 (1.11%)$6014.45
NidokingHolo Rare$4.741 in 90 (1.11%)$6014.45
NidokingHolo Rare$4.601 in 90 (1.11%)$6014.45
ClefairyHolo Rare$4.591 in 90 (1.11%)$6014.45
MachampHolo Rare$4.421 in 90 (1.11%)$6014.45
PoliwrathHolo Rare$4.341 in 90 (1.11%)$6014.45
ArcanineRare$3.941 in 13 (7.41%)$901.84
Psychic EnergyCommon$3.781 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
PoliwrathHolo Rare$3.601 in 90 (1.11%)$6014.45
Metal EnergyCommon$3.481 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
Fire EnergyCommon$3.181 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
Grass EnergyCommon$3.121 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
ChanseyHolo Rare$3.031 in 90 (1.11%)$6014.45
MewtwoRare$2.941 in 13 (7.41%)$901.84
DewgongRare$2.901 in 13 (7.41%)$901.84
Water EnergyCommon$2.841 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
ChanseyHolo Rare$2.801 in 90 (1.11%)$6014.45
Fighting EnergyCommon$2.591 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
HitmonchanHolo Rare$2.411 in 90 (1.11%)$6014.45
MagnetonHolo Rare$2.281 in 90 (1.11%)$6014.45
HitmonchanHolo Rare$2.271 in 90 (1.11%)$6014.45
Blastoise Spirit LinkUncommon$2.211 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
Lightning EnergyCommon$2.191 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
MagnetonHolo Rare$2.151 in 90 (1.11%)$6014.45
CharmanderCommon$1.871 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
Double Colorless EnergyUncommon$1.641 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
Darkness EnergyCommon$1.501 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
Venusaur Spirit LinkUncommon$1.381 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
StarmieRare$1.361 in 13 (7.41%)$901.84
BeedrillRare$1.331 in 13 (7.41%)$901.84
ReviveUncommon$1.331 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
MagikarpCommon$1.281 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
Farfetch'dRare$1.191 in 13 (7.41%)$901.84
Energy RetrievalUncommon$1.071 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
PikachuCommon$1.061 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
HaunterUncommon$1.031 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
ElectrodeRare$1.021 in 13 (7.41%)$901.84
Slowbro Spirit LinkUncommon$1.001 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
CharmeleonUncommon$0.981 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
PokedexUncommon$0.961 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
DugtrioRare$0.891 in 13 (7.41%)$901.84
Super PotionUncommon$0.801 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
RaticateRare$0.791 in 13 (7.41%)$901.84
VulpixCommon$0.771 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
GastlyCommon$0.761 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
Metal EnergyCommon$0.761 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
MaintenanceUncommon$0.741 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
GrowlitheCommon$0.671 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
Pidgeot Spirit LinkUncommon$0.631 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
Fairy EnergyCommon$0.601 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
PorygonUncommon$0.591 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
Devolution SprayUncommon$0.591 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
Full HealUncommon$0.581 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
Misty's DeterminationUncommon$0.561 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
PoliwhirlUncommon$0.551 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
ElectabuzzCommon$0.551 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
KoffingUncommon$0.541 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
PoliwagCommon$0.511 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
TangelaCommon$0.501 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
StaryuCommon$0.501 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
OnixCommon$0.491 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
MachopCommon$0.471 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
Charizard Spirit LinkUncommon$0.461 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
SwitchUncommon$0.461 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
MagmarUncommon$0.451 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
Nidoran MCommon$0.451 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
DiglettCommon$0.451 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
PotionUncommon$0.451 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
CaterpieCommon$0.431 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
PonytaCommon$0.431 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
ElectrodeRare$0.431 in 13 (7.41%)$901.84
DrowzeeCommon$0.431 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
MachokeUncommon$0.431 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
SeelCommon$0.421 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
NidorinoUncommon$0.421 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
WeedleCommon$0.411 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
VoltorbCommon$0.411 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
MetapodUncommon$0.401 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
MagnemiteCommon$0.401 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
SandshrewCommon$0.401 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
Farfetch'dRare$0.391 in 13 (7.41%)$901.84
KakunaUncommon$0.381 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
RattataCommon$0.381 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
Brock's GritUncommon$0.371 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
Professor Oak's HintUncommon$0.371 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
CharmanderCommon$0.351 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
Double Colorless EnergyUncommon$0.351 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
CharmeleonUncommon$0.331 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
DoduoCommon$0.331 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
ArcanineRare$0.321 in 13 (7.41%)$901.84
MagikarpCommon$0.311 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
HaunterUncommon$0.311 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
Misty's DeterminationUncommon$0.311 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
StarmieRare$0.301 in 13 (7.41%)$901.84
Fire EnergyCommon$0.291 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
Slowbro Spirit LinkUncommon$0.281 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
Psychic EnergyCommon$0.271 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
GrowlitheCommon$0.261 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
PoliwhirlUncommon$0.261 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
Water EnergyCommon$0.261 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
Fighting EnergyCommon$0.261 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
BeedrillRare$0.251 in 13 (7.41%)$901.84
ElectabuzzCommon$0.241 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
PorygonUncommon$0.241 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
WeedleCommon$0.231 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
NidorinoUncommon$0.231 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
GastlyCommon$0.231 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
Venusaur Spirit LinkUncommon$0.231 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
MetapodUncommon$0.221 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
VulpixCommon$0.221 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
DewgongRare$0.221 in 13 (7.41%)$901.84
Nidoran MCommon$0.221 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
Blastoise Spirit LinkUncommon$0.221 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
Energy RetrievalUncommon$0.221 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
PoliwagCommon$0.211 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
SwitchUncommon$0.211 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
Lightning EnergyCommon$0.211 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
TangelaCommon$0.201 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
VoltorbCommon$0.201 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
DrowzeeCommon$0.201 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
KoffingUncommon$0.201 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
Brock's GritUncommon$0.201 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
CaterpieCommon$0.191 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
MachokeUncommon$0.191 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
OnixCommon$0.191 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
Super PotionUncommon$0.191 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
Grass EnergyCommon$0.191 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
SandshrewCommon$0.181 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
MachopCommon$0.181 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
Full HealUncommon$0.181 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
RaticateRare$0.171 in 13 (7.41%)$901.84
ReviveUncommon$0.171 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
MagmarUncommon$0.161 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
DoduoCommon$0.161 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
SeelCommon$0.151 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
StaryuCommon$0.141 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
Devolution SprayUncommon$0.141 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
PokedexUncommon$0.141 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
MaintenanceUncommon$0.131 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
PonytaCommon$0.121 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
MagnemiteCommon$0.121 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
DugtrioRare$0.121 in 13 (7.41%)$901.84
Pidgeot Spirit LinkUncommon$0.101 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
DiglettCommon$0.091 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
RattataCommon$0.081 in 7 (13.94%)$479.27
KakunaUncommon$0.061 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
PotionUncommon$0.061 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03
Professor Oak's HintUncommon$0.051 in 10 (10.36%)$645.03